Current Tropical Cyclone Information 最新熱帶氣旋資訊

Name of System 系統名稱	TY (CAT. 1) LEKIMA 一級颱風利奇馬
Bulletin Number 發佈編號	#7
Time of Report 報告時間	2007/10/03, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間	2007/10/03, 14 HKT (06 UTC)
Position 位置	17.8 N, 107.4 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速	70 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 85 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速	60 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 85 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓	975 hPa
Movement 移向和移速	W 西 at 11 knots 節
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區	N Vietnam 越南北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽

Other images 其他圖像

HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖

JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖

HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

LEKIMA avoided Hainan by turning into a westerly direction last night. At 14 HKT, LEKIMA was centred 210 km (120 NM) NNW of Da Nang, Vietnam.

利奇馬轉向偏西前進，並未有登陸海南島。在 14 HKT，利奇馬集結在峴港之西北偏北約 210 公里 (120 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

It is expected that LEKIMA will track in a generally W/WNW direction along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge into northern Vietnam.

預料利奇馬將沿副熱帶高壓脊西南部向西至西北偏西移動，趨向越南北部。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24 HRS
It is forecast that LEKIMA will rapidly weaken as it enters Vietnam.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24 HRS
利奇馬將於登陸越南後急速減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

利奇馬於未來的72小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。

Next Update 下次更新

21 HKT, 2007/10/04 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

Not Applicable 不適用

Name of System 系統名稱	TY (CAT. 1) LEKIMA 一級颱風利奇馬
Bulletin Number 發佈編號	#6
Time of Report 報告時間	2007/10/02, 18:45 HKT (10:45 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間	2007/10/02, 14 HKT (06 UTC)
Position 位置	17.6 N, 111.2 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速	70 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 85 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速	60 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 85 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓	975 hPa
Movement 移向和移速	NW 西北 at 11 knots 節
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區	Hainan Island, Gulf of Tonkin 海南島和北部灣

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽

Other images 其他圖像

HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖

JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖

HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

LEKIMA strengthened further into a typhoon at 14 HKT, with its structure improving considerably. At 14 HKT, LEKIMA was centred 610 km (330 NM) SSW of Hong Kong.

利奇馬今天增強為一颱風，系統組織變得較為緊密。在 14 HKT，利奇馬集結在香港之西南偏南約 610 公里 (330 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

It is expected that LEKIMA will track in a generally WNW/NW direction along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge into the Gulf of Tonkin.

預料利奇馬將沿副熱帶高壓脊西南部向西北偏西至西北移動，趨向北部灣。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS
LEKIMA has been consolidating slightly in the past 24 hours. It is forecast that LEKIMA will be able to maintain strength before landfall at Hainan, after which land interaction will cause the system to decrease in strength.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS
利奇馬的雲團於過去 24 小時慢慢整固。預料利奇馬將可以在登陸海南前維持強度，隨後因陸地影響而減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Combined with the NE monsoon, strong winds may affect Hong Kong in the next 2 days. Gale to storm force gusts are expected on high grounds tonight and tomorrow.

受到利奇馬和東北季候風的共同影響，本港將於未來兩天吹強風。預料高地今晚和明日將繼續有達烈風至暴風程度的陣風。

Next Update 下次更新

20 HKT, 2007/10/03 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

Signal 信號	t+12	t+24	t+36	t+48	t+72	t+96	t+120	t+144
Standby 戒備 #1	Medium	Low
Strong Wind 強風 #3	Low
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 60 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。

Name of System 系統名稱	STS LEKIMA 強烈熱帶風暴利奇馬
Bulletin Number 發佈編號	#5
Time of Report 報告時間	2007/10/01, 22:30 HKT (14:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間	2007/10/01, 20 HKT (12 UTC)
Position 位置	15.7 N, 112.4 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速	60 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 80 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速	55 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 80 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓	980 hPa
Movement 移向和移速	NW 西北 at 5 knots 節
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區	Hainan Island 海南島

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽

Other images 其他圖像

HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖

JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖

HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

LEKIMA slowly organized into a severe tropical storm today, decelerating appreciably at the same time. At 20 HKT, LEKIMA was centred 760 km (410 NM) SSW of Hong Kong.

利奇馬今天增強為一強烈熱帶風暴。在 20 HKT，利奇馬集結在香港之西南偏南約 760 公里 (410 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

With a weaker steering regime as the subtropical ridge retreats, LEKIMA has decelerated considerably in the past 12 hours. It is expected that the retreat of the subtropical ridge will drive the system WNW to NW towards Hainan Island.

一道西風槽正令位於利奇馬東北部的副熱帶高壓脊東退，此舉令利奇馬於過去 12 小時急速減慢。預料利奇馬將在未來 24 小時因副熱帶高壓脊東退而向西北偏西至西北移動，趨向海南島。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
LEKIMA has been consolidating slightly in the past 24 hours and clouds are not as confined to the western semicircle as that of yesterday. It is forecast that as the environment of where LEKIMA is in improves, the system is able to intensify at slightly less than climatological rate before making landfall at Hainan.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
利奇馬的雲團於過去 24 小時慢慢整固，雲團開始捲入系統的東半圓。預料利奇馬將在良好的大氣環境中以稍低於氣候平均值速度增強。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Combined with the NE monsoon, strong winds may affect Hong Kong in the next 2 days.

受到利奇馬和東北季候風的共同影響，本港將於未來兩天吹強風。

Next Update 下次更新

20 HKT, 2007/10/02 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

Signal 信號	t+12	t+24	t+36	t+48	t+72	t+96	t+120	t+144
Standby 戒備 #1	Low	Medium	Medium	Low
Strong Wind 強風 #3		Low	Low
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 60 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。

Name of System 系統名稱	STS LEKIMA 強烈熱帶風暴利奇馬
Bulletin Number 發佈編號	#4
Time of Report 報告時間	2007/10/01, 13:00 HKT (05:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間	2007/10/01, 11 HKT (03 UTC)
Position 位置	15.5 N, 113.3 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速	60 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 80 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速	55 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 80 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓	980 hPa
Movement 移向和移速	N 北 at 3 knots 節
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區	Central South China Sea 南海中部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽

Other images 其他圖像

HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖

JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖

HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

LEKIMA slowly organized into a severe tropical storm today, decelerating appreciably at the same time. At 11 HKT, LEKIMA was centred 760 km (412 NM) S of Hong Kong.

利奇馬今天增強為一強烈熱帶風暴。在 11 HKT，利奇馬集結在香港以南約 760 公里 (412 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

With a weaker steering regime as the subtropical ridge retreats, LEKIMA has decelerated considerably in the past 12 hours. It is expected that the retreat of the subtropical ridge will enable LEKIMA to track poleward until t+24, after which the ridge will extend again and drive the system WNW towards Hainan Island.

一道西風槽正令位於利奇馬東北部的副熱帶高壓脊東退，此舉令利奇馬於過去 12 小時急速減慢。預料利奇馬將在未來 24 小時因副熱帶高壓脊東退而向偏北移動。在 t+24 以後，副熱帶高壓脊將重新西伸，利奇馬將向西北偏西至西北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS
LEKIMA has been consolidating slightly in the past 24 hours and clouds are not as confined to the western semicircle as that of yesterday. It is forecast that as the environment of where LEKIMA is in improves, the system is able to intensify at slightly less than climatological rate before making landfall at Hainan.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS
利奇馬的雲團於過去 24 小時慢慢整固，雲團開始捲入系統的東半圓。預料利奇馬將在良好的大氣環境中以稍低於氣候平均值速度增強。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Strong winds may affect Hong Kong in the next 2 days as LEKIMA makes its poleward turn

利奇馬將轉為北進，本港將可能於未來兩天吹強風。

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2007/10/01 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

Signal 信號	t+12	t+24	t+36	t+48	t+72	t+96	t+120	t+144
Standby 戒備 #1	Medium	Medium	High	Medium	Low
Strong Wind 強風 #3			Low
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 60 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。

Name of System 系統名稱	TS LEKIMA 熱帶風暴利奇馬
Bulletin Number 發佈編號	#3
Time of Report 報告時間	2007/09/30, 16:00 HKT (08:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間	2007/09/30, 14 HKT (06 UTC)
Position 位置	14.8 N, 114.9 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速	40 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 60 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速	35 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 50 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓	992 hPa
Movement 移向和移速	W 西 at 6 knots 節
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區	Central South China Sea 南海中部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽

Other images 其他圖像

HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖

JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖

HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

90W intensified into a tropical storm today and was given the name LEKIMA. At 14 HKT, LEKIMA was centred 840 km (450 NM) S of Hong Kong.

90W 今天增強為一熱帶風暴，被命名為利奇馬。在 14 HKT，利奇馬集結在香港以南約 840 公里 (450 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

Steered by the subtropical ridge, LEKIMA moved WSW in the past 24 hours. Recent analyses showed that the mid-latitude trough is causing the subtropical ridge to retreat, and, with a weaker steering regime, LEKIMA has decelerated considerably in these few hours. It is expected that the retreat of the subtropical ridge will enable LEKIMA to track poleward until t+48, after which the ridge will extend again and drive the system WNW towards Hainan Island.

利奇馬於過去 24 小時受副熱帶高壓脊影響向西南偏西方向移動。最新資料顯示一道西風槽正令該副熱帶高壓脊東退，此舉令利奇馬於過去 6 小時急速減慢。預料利奇馬將在未來 48 小時因副熱帶高壓脊東退而向偏北移動。在 t+48 以後，副熱帶高壓脊將重新西伸，利奇馬將向西北偏西至西北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS
LEKIMA has been consolidating slightly in the past 24 hours. It is forecast that as the environment of where LEKIMA is in improves, the system is able to intensify at a climatological rate (or slightly less than this rate) before making landfall at Hainan.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS
利奇馬的雲團於過去 24 小時慢慢整固。預料利奇馬將在良好的大氣環境中以約氣候平均值速度增強。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Strong winds may affect Hong Kong in the next 3 days as LEKIMA makes its poleward turn

利奇馬將轉為北進，本港將可能於未來三天吹強風。

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2007/10/01 or when HKO issues the standby signal #1 (whichever comes first).

19 HKT, 2007/10/01 或當香港天文台發出一號戒備信號時 (以較早為準)。

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

Signal 信號	t+12	t+24	t+36	t+48	t+72	t+96	t+120	t+144
Standby 戒備 #1	Medium	Medium	High	V High	High	Medium
Strong Wind 強風 #3			Low	Medium	Medium
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 60 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。

Name of System 系統名稱	TD 90W 熱帶低氣壓 90W
Bulletin Number 發佈編號	#2
Time of Report 報告時間	2007/09/29, 17:00 HKT (09:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間	2007/09/29, 14 HKT (06 UTC)
Position 位置	16.3 N, 120.3 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速	30 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 40 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速	25 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 35 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓	998 hPa
Movement 移向和移速	W 西 at 16 knots 節
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區	N. Philippines, Central South China Sea 菲律賓北部和南海中部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽

Other images 其他圖像

HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖

JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖

HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

98W separated into two portions last night and JTWC renamed the western portion as 90W. The Hong Kong Observatory also upgraded 90W into a tropical depression at 14 HKT today. At 14 HKT, 90W was centred 200 km (110 NM) NNW of Manila.

98W 昨晚分開為兩個雲團，而聯合颱風警報中心把西部的雲團重新命名為 90W。香港天文台亦於 14 HKT 把 90W 升格為一熱帶低氣壓。在 14 HKT，90W 集結在馬尼拉西北偏北約 200 公里 (110 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

90W has been moving WNW quickly for the past 24 hours. It is forecast that 90W will move W with a small S component in the next 24-36 hours along the southern periphery of the steering subtropical ridge. After that, the ridge begins to retreat and reorientate into a S-N direction which significantly cuts down the steering on 90W, and therefore 90W should decelerate rapidly. The ridge is expected to re-extend later in the forecast period which allows 90W to move in a WNW/NW direction towards Hainan Island.

90W 於過去 24 小時向西北偏西方向快速移動。預料 90W 將在未來 24 至 36 小時沿副熱帶高壓脊南部向西微南移動。隨後，該副熱帶高壓脊將稍為東退並轉為南北向，有利 90W 急速減慢並向偏北移動。在 t+72 以後，副熱帶高壓脊將重新西伸，90W 將向西北偏西至西北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/S0.5/24 HRS
90W is about to emerge from the Philippines. The warm sea surface temperature is expected to provide a good environment for the system to intensify. Near t+36, 90W's outflow channel will improve further as the ridge retreats and will bring about a greater rate of intensification.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/S0.5/24 HRS
90W 將離開菲律賓，預料南海溫暖的海水將有利 90W 增強。當副熱帶高壓脊東退時，90W 的輻散通道將進一步轉好，90W 的增強速度將會加快。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Strong winds may start to affect Hong Kong 2 days later when 90W starts its poleward turn.

98W 將於 2 天後稍為北進，屆時本港將可能吹強風。

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2007/09/30 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

Signal 信號	t+12	t+24	t+36	t+48	t+72	t+96	t+120	t+144
Standby 戒備 #1	Low	Medium	Medium	High	High
Strong Wind 強風 #3			Low	Low	Medium
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 60 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。

Name of System 系統名稱	TD 98W 熱帶低氣壓 98W
Bulletin Number 發佈編號	#1
Time of Report 報告時間	2007/09/28, 15:45 HKT (07:45 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間	2007/09/28, 14 HKT (06 UTC)
Position 位置	14.5 N, 129.4 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速	25 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 35 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速	25 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 35 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓	1002 hPa
Movement 移向和移速	W 西 at 17 knots 節
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區	N. Philippines 菲律賓北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽

Other images 其他圖像

JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖

HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

Hong Kong Weather Watch has upgraded 98W into a tropical depression. At 14 HKT, 98W was centred 900 km (490 NM) E of Manila.

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

98W has been moving WNW rapidly. It is forecast that the steering subtropical ridge will extend westward and will allow 98W to move in a W/WNW direction.

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T1.5/2.0/INT OBS
98W is expected to make landfall at Northern Philippines in 24-36 hours' time. As the environment is generally favourable, 98W may be able to intensify into a tropical storm before landfall. After emerging from the Philippines, the warm sea surface temperatures will enable 98W to intensify at a climatological rate.

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

98W may enter the South China Sea 3 days later and may bring stronger winds to Hong Kong.

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2007/09/29 or when JTWC issues its first warning on 98W (whichever comes first).

+16W (LEKIMA 利奇馬) Bulletin 發佈 #7 (2007/10/03, 20:00 HKT)

+16W (LEKIMA 利奇馬) Bulletin 發佈 #6 (2007/10/02, 18:45 HKT)

+16W (LEKIMA 利奇馬) Bulletin 發佈 #5 (2007/10/01, 22:30 HKT)

+16W (LEKIMA 利奇馬) Bulletin 發佈 #4 (2007/10/01, 13:00 HKT)

+16W (LEKIMA 利奇馬) Bulletin 發佈 #3 (2007/09/30, 16:00 HKT)

+16W (LEKIMA 利奇馬) Bulletin 發佈 #2 (2007/09/29, 17:00 HKT)

+16W (LEKIMA 利奇馬) Bulletin 發佈 #1 (2007/09/28, 15:45 HKT)