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Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋

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1. 17W (KROSA 羅莎)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS KROSA 熱帶風暴 羅莎

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #8 FINAL BULLETIN 最後發佈
Time of Report 報告時間 2007/10/08, 16:00 HKT (08:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2007/10/08, 14 HKT (06 UTC)
Position 位置 27.8 N, 120.2 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 50 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 45 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 1000 hPa
Movement 移向和移速 Quasi-stationary 幾乎停留不動
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區 E coast of China 中國東部沿海

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

KROSA made its second landfall at southern Zhejiang yesterday and remained quasi-stationary. At 14 HKT, KROSA was centred 400 km (220 NM) SSW of Shanghai.

羅莎昨日登陸浙江南部並幾乎停留不動。在 14 HKT,羅莎集結在上海之西南偏南約 400 公里 (220 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The ridge to the east of KROSA is retreating gradually, and KROSA will be able to recurve in 24 hours' time.

羅莎東部的副熱帶高壓脊將會逐漸東退允許羅莎稍後向東北移動

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: N/A
KROSA will weaken as the moisture from sea is severely cut down.

現時的 T 號碼: N/A
由於得不到大海中的水氣羅莎將進一步減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

羅莎於未來的72小時將不會對香港構成任何影響

Next Update 下次更新

This is the final bulletin on KROSA.

這是本站對羅莎的最後一次發佈


Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用




Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告 (請按發佈編號顯示內容)

+17W (KROSA 羅莎) Bulletin 發佈 #7 (2007/10/07, 16:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) KROSA 一級颱風 羅莎

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #7
Time of Report 報告時間 2007/10/07, 16:00 HKT (08:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2007/10/07, 14 HKT (06 UTC)
Position 位置 26.8 N, 120.7 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 90 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 85 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 970 hPa
Movement 移向和移速 N 北 at 10 knots 節
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區 E coast of China 中國東部沿海

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

KROSA made landfall at northern Taiwan yesterday. It has then moved N, gradually approaching Zhejiang. At 14 HKT, KROSA was centred 500 km (270 NM) S of Shanghai.

羅莎昨日登陸台灣北部並轉向北移動,現在靠近浙江沿岸。在 14 HKT,羅莎集結在上海之南約 500 公里 (270 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The ridge to the east of KROSA is retreating gradually, and KROSA will be able to recurve in 24 hours' time.

羅莎東部的副熱帶高壓脊將會逐漸東退,允許羅莎稍後向東北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.0/4.5/W2.5/24 HRS
As KROSA takes the poleward turn, the entrainment of drier air and higher vertical wind shear will cause KROSA to weaken further.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.5/W2.5/24 HRS
由於受到轉強的垂直風切變及較乾的空氣影響羅莎將進一步減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

羅莎於未來的72小時將不會對香港構成任何影響

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2007/10/08 (or earlier 或更早)


Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+17W (KROSA 羅莎) Bulletin 發佈 #6 (2007/10/06, 17:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 4) KROSA 四級颱風 羅莎

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #6
Time of Report 報告時間 2007/10/06, 17:00 HKT (09:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2007/10/06, 14 HKT (06 UTC)
Position 位置 24.5 N, 122.3 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 125 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 150 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 100 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 140 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 925 hPa
Movement 移向和移速 WNW 西北 at 13 knots 節
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區 NE Taiwan, Fujian 台灣東北部和福建

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

KROSA turned from NW to WNW last night and is now approaching Taiwan. At 14 HKT, KROSA was centred 100 km (50 NM) SE of Taipei.

羅莎昨晚轉為向西北偏西移動並逐漸靠近台灣。在 14 HKT,羅莎集結在台北之東南約 100 公里 (50 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

A weakness is about to form between the ridges, which allows the system to recurve. The initial speed will be low as KROSA situates in a pressure col.

預料一道西風槽將會在副熱帶高壓脊造成弱點,羅莎將會逐漸轉向東北移動。初時由於羅莎處於鞍場之中,它將會於未來 24 小時緩慢向偏北方向移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T6.5/7.0/W0.5/24 HRS
KROSA is expected to lose strength as it approaches Taiwan, and as it takes the poleward turn the entrainment of drier air and higher vertical wind shear will cause KROSA to weaken further.

現時的 T 號碼: T6.5/7.0/W0.5/24 HRS
預料羅莎將由於登陸台灣而開始減弱,其後由於受到轉強的垂直風切變及較乾的空氣影響羅莎將進一步減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Haze is expected on the next two days as KROSA nears Taiwan.

羅莎的下沉氣流將於未來兩天為本港帶來煙霞

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2007/10/07 (or earlier 或更早)


Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+17W (KROSA 羅莎) Bulletin 發佈 #5 (2007/10/05, 15:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STY (CAT. 4) KROSA 四級超級颱風 羅莎

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #5
Time of Report 報告時間 2007/10/05, 15:30 HKT (08:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2007/10/05, 14 HKT (06 UTC)
Position 位置 21.0 N, 124.9 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 135 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 165 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 105 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 150 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 920 hPa
Movement 移向和移速 NW 西北 at 7 knots 節
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區 NE Taiwan 台灣東北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

KROSA intensified further in the past 24 hours into a super typhoon, now having a very well-defined eye of about 70 km (40 NM). At 14 HKT, KROSA was centred 570 km (310 NM) SE of Taipei.

羅莎昨晚增強為一超級颱風並有一個約 70 公里 (40 海里) 寬的風眼。在 14 HKT,羅莎集結在台北之東南約 570 公里 (310 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

Steered by a ridge SE of the storm, KROSA will be able to move NW in the next 48 hours. It is expected that a weak mid-latitude trough will develop later in the forecast period and creates a weakness between the ridges, allowing KROSA to recurve.

受到在羅莎東南面的高壓脊影響,羅莎將於未來 48 向西北移動。預料一道西風槽將會於較後時間形成並對副熱帶高壓脊造成弱點,羅莎將會減慢及向北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24 HRS
KROSA has been intensifying in the past 24 hours due to excellent ambient environments. It is forecast that KROSA will be able to maintain its strength before reaching Taiwan, and as it approaches Taiwan (and later on) the entrainment of drier air and higher vertical wind shear will cause KROSA to weaken gradually.

現時的 T 號碼: T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24 HRS
受到良好的大氣環境影響,羅莎於過去 24 小時繼續增強預料羅莎將可在登陸台灣前維持強度,之後由於受到轉強的垂直風切變及較乾的空氣影響羅莎將開始減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Haze is expected on the next two days as KROSA nears Taiwan.

羅莎的下沉氣流將於未來兩天為本港帶來煙霞

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2007/10/06 (or earlier 或更早)


Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+17W (KROSA 羅莎) Bulletin 發佈 #4 (2007/10/04, 19:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 4) KROSA 四級颱風 羅莎

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #4
Time of Report 報告時間 2007/10/04, 19:30 HKT (11:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2007/10/04, 14 HKT (06 UTC)
Position 位置 19.3 N, 127.2 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 115 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 140 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 95 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 130 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 940 hPa
Movement 移向和移速 NW 西北 at 9 knots 節
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區 E Taiwan 台灣東部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

KROSA intensified rapidly in the past 48 hours with a very well-defined eye of about 80 km (45 NM). At 14 HKT, KROSA was centred 870 km (470 NM) SE of Taipei.

羅莎昨晚急速增強並發展出一個約 80 公里 (45 海里) 寬的風眼。在 14 HKT,羅莎集結在台北之東南約 870 公里 (470 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

Steered by a ridge SE of the storm, KROSA will be able to move NW in the next 48 hours. It is expected that a weak mid-latitude trough will develop later in the forecast period and creates a col between the ridges, which allows KROSA to decelerate and move poleward.

受到在羅莎東南面的高壓脊影響,羅莎將於未來 48 向西北移動。預料一道西風槽將會於較後時間形成並對副熱帶高壓脊造成弱點,羅莎會在此鞍形場中減慢及向北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS
KROSA has been intensifying rapidly in the past 24 hours due to excellent ambient environments. It is forecast that KROSA will be able to intensify further in the next 24 hours due to excellent outflow channels. KROSA should weaken before reaching Taiwan as the wind shear rises considerably.

現時的 T 號碼: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS
受到良好的大氣環境影響,羅莎於過去 24 小時急速增強預料羅莎極佳的輻散通道將使它於未來 24 小時稍為增強。之後由於受到轉強的垂直風切變影響羅莎將開始減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Haze is expected on Saturday as KROSA nears Taiwan.

羅莎的下沉氣流將於星期六為本港帶來煙霞

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2007/10/05 (or earlier 或更早)


Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+17W (KROSA 羅莎) Bulletin 發佈 #3 (2007/10/03, 20:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) KROSA 一級颱風 羅莎

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #3
Time of Report 報告時間 2007/10/03, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2007/10/03, 14 HKT (06 UTC)
Position 位置 17.3 N, 129.6 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 80 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 100 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 70 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 95 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 965 hPa
Movement 移向和移速 Quasi-stationary 幾乎停留不動
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區 Seas E of Taiwan 台灣以東海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

KROSA intensified rapidly in the past 24 hours with a discernible and tight eye formed earlier today. At 14 HKT, KROSA was centred 1200 km (650 NM) SE of Taipei.

羅莎昨晚急速增強並發展出一個漸趨緊密的風眼。在 14 HKT,羅莎集結在台北之東南約 1200 公里 (650 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

As the equatorial anticyclone is weakening, KROSA will be able to move NW in the next 48 - 72 hours. Uncertainties exist as to the motion of KROSA after t+72, with different models persistently predicting different scenarios including landfall at Fujian (ECMWF) and a recurvature (NOGAPS). This bulletin favours more on the NOGAPS solution, but this is subject to change as more data is available afterwards.

赤道反氣旋正在減弱中,而羅莎將可於未來 48 至 72 小時向西北移動。可是,各預報模式對於羅莎在 t+72 以後的路徑存在一定的分歧,而本報將較為支持 NOGAPS 的預測 (氣旋轉向)。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS
KROSA has been intensifying rapidly in the past 24 hours due to excellent ambient environments. It is forecast that KROSA will be able to intensify at slightly higher than the climatological rate in the next 72 hours. The extended forecast period (t+120 - t+144) calls for a slight decrease in strength as sea temperature drops at such latitude.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS
受到良好的大氣環境影響,羅莎於過去 24 小時急速增強預料隨著輻散通道繼續轉好羅莎可望於未來 72 小時以稍高於氣候平均值的速度增強。之後由於海水溫度隨緯度的增加而逐漸變涼羅莎將稍為減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

羅莎於未來的72小時將不會對香港構成任何影響

Next Update 下次更新

21 HKT, 2007/10/04 (or earlier 或更早)


Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+17W (KROSA 羅莎) Bulletin 發佈 #2 (2007/10/02, 18:45 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS KROSA 強烈熱帶風暴 羅莎

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #2
Time of Report 報告時間 2007/10/02, 18:45 HKT (10:45 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2007/10/02, 14 HKT (06 UTC)
Position 位置 16.7 N, 131.2 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 75 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 45 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 65 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 988 hPa
Movement 移向和移速 Quasi-stationary 幾乎停留不動
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區 Philippine Sea 菲律賓以東海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

91W intensified rapidly in the past 24 hours, reaching severe tropical storm strength today and was named KROSA. At 14 HKT, KROSA was centred 1370 km (740 NM) SE of Taipei.

91W 昨晚急速增強為一強烈熱帶風暴,並被命名為羅莎。在 14 HKT,羅莎集結在台北之東南約 1370 公里 (740 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

KROSA is currently situated in a weak steering environment as the steerings from equatorial anticyclone and the subtropical ridge cancel each other. It is forecast that as the equatorial anticyclone weakens near t+36, KROSA will be able to move NW. Uncertainties exist as to the motion of KROSA after t+72, with different models predicting different scenarios including landfall at Fujian (ECMWF) and a recurvature (NOGAPS). This bulletin favours more on the NOGAPS solution, but this is subject to change as more data is available afterwards.

受到赤道反氣旋及副熱帶高壓脊的共同影響,羅莎於過去 24 小時幾乎停留不動。預料隨著赤道反氣旋於 t+36 減弱,羅莎可向西北移動。可是,各預報模式對於羅莎在 t+72 以後的路徑存在一定的分歧,而本報將較為支持 NOGAPS 的預測 (氣旋轉向)。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS
KROSA has been intensifying rapidly in the past 24 hours due to excellent ambient environments. It is forecast that KROSA will be able to intensify at greater than climatological rate as its ouflows improve further.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS
受到良好的大氣環境影響,羅莎於過去 24 小時急速增強預料隨著輻散通道繼續轉好羅莎可望於未來 96 小時以高於氣候平均值的速度增強

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

羅莎於未來的72小時將不會對香港構成任何影響

Next Update 下次更新

20 HKT, 2007/10/03 (or earlier 或更早)


Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+17W (KROSA 羅莎) Bulletin 發佈 #1 (2007/10/01, 17:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TD 91W 熱帶低氣壓 91W
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #1
Time of Report 報告時間 2007/10/01, 17:30 HKT (09:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2007/10/01, 14 HKT (06 UTC)
Position 位置 17.7 N, 130.6 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 45 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 25 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 35 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 998 hPa
Movement 移向和移速 NW 西北 at 3 knots 節
Area(s) that will be affected 受影響地區 Philippine Sea 菲律賓以東海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖 (image available after 12 am)
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HKWW upgraded the disturbance east of the Philippines (91W) into a tropical depression at 14 HKT. At 14 HKT, 91W was centred 1250 km (670 NM) SE of Taipei.

在菲律賓以東的一個擾動 (91W) 已經增強為一熱帶低氣壓。在 14 HKT,91W 集結在台北之東南約 1250 公里 (670 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

91W is currently situated in a weak steering environment. It is forecast that the ridge will be situated slightly north of the system to provide a weak steering to the west through t+48.

91W 正處於弱駛流環境。預料在未來的 48 小時副熱帶高壓脊將處於系統北部,91W 將向偏西方向緩慢移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
It is forecast that 91W can intensify at a climatological rate as it encounters warm sea surface temperatures.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
預料 91W 可以在溫暖的海水中以氣候平均值增強

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

91W 於未來的72小時將不會對香港構成任何影響

Next Update 下次更新

20 HKT, 2007/10/02 (or earlier 或更早)


Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

Track Data from HKWW 本站之路徑資料

No. Date   Lat Long Wind
1707100100 177N1302E 030
1707100106 177N1303E 030
1707100212 175N1307E 035
1707100218 173N1313E 040
1707100200 170N1312E 045
1707100206 167N1312E 060
1707100312 170N1311E 065
1707100318 170N1306E 070
1707100300 170N1301E 075
1707100306 173N1296E 080
1707100312 177N1292E 095
1707100318 184N1287E 105
1707100400 188N1278E 115
1707100406 193N1272E 115
1707100412 200N1266E 120
1707100418 202N1257E 125
1707100500 204N1252E 130
1707100506 210N1249E 135
1707100512 223N1248E 135
1707100518 231N1241E 130
1707100600 241N1233E 125
1707100606 245N1223E 125
1707100612 244N1219E 115
1707100618 255N1212E 090
1707100700 258N1207E 075
1707100706 268N1207E 065
1707100712 274N1203E 050
1707100718 276N1203E 045
1707100800 276N1203E 040
1707100806 278N1202E 035

 

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Wed Oct 16 2019 23:10:00 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Tue Dec 24 2013

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