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Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋

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1. 02W (NEOGURI 浣熊)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS NEOGURI 熱帶風暴 浣熊

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #9 FINAL BULLETIN 最後發佈
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/04/19, 23:00 HKT (15:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/04/19, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 22.8 N, 113.0 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 40 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 50 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 45 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 994 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NNE 東北偏北 at 17 knots 節
Area(s) that are affected 受影響地區 SE Guangdong, W Fujian 廣東東南部及福建西部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

NEOGURI has made landfall at western Guangdong near 15 HKT today, and it necessitated the Number 8 (SE) Gale or Storm Wind Signal in Macau and the earliest Black Rainstorm Warning Signal in 16 years in Hong Kong. It has then weakened into a tropical storm. At 20 HKT, NEOGURI was centred about 130 km (70 NM) WNW of the Hong Kong Observatory.

浣熊於下午三時在廣東西部登陸,並減弱為一熱帶風暴。浣熊令澳門發出八號東南烈風或暴風訊號,也令香港發出 16 年來最早的黑色暴雨警告訊號。在 20 HKT,浣熊集結在香港天文台西北偏西約 130 公里 (70 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

NEOGURI will travel NE along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge in the remainder of the forecast period.

預料浣熊將於餘下時間沿副熱帶高壓脊西北部向東北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: N/A (already made landfall)
NEOGURI is forecast to weaken rapidly as a result of lack of moisture from the ocean.

現時的 T 號碼: N/A (已登陸)
預料浣熊將由於缺乏由海洋提供的水氣而急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

NEOGURI's remnant will still bring occasionally heavy rain to Hong Kong until Monday.

浣熊的殘餘仍會於明天及下星期一為香港及鄰近地區帶來大陣雨

Next Update 下次更新

This is the final bulletin on NEOGURI.

這是本站對浣熊的最後一次發佈

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用



Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告 (請按發佈編號顯示內容)

+02W (NEOGURI 浣熊) Bulletin 發佈 #8 (2008/04/19, 15:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS NEOGURI 強烈熱帶風暴 浣熊

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #8
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/04/19, 15:30 HKT (07:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/04/19, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 21.4 N, 112.0 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 65 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 50 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 60 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 986 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NNE 東北偏北 at 9 knots 節
Area(s) that are affected 受影響地區 Northern South China Sea, Southern Guangdong 南海北部及廣東南部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

NEOGURI has recurved into a NNE direction. At 14 HKT, NEOGURI was centred about 250 km (130 NM) WSW of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Strong Wind Signal Number 3 at 20:40 HKT on 18th April.

浣熊開始轉向東北偏北移動。在 14 HKT,浣熊集結在香港西南偏西約 250 公里 (130 海里)。香港天文台已於 4 月 18 日 20:40 HKT 發出三號強風信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

NEOGURI will travel NE to NNE along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge in the remainder of the forecast period.

預料浣熊將於餘下時間沿副熱帶高壓脊西北部向東北至東北偏北移動,趨向華南沿岸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24 HRS
NEOGURI is forecast to weaken rapidly as a result of lack of moisture from the ocean, higher vertical wind shear and land interaction.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24 HRS
預料浣熊將由於缺乏由海洋提供的水氣、垂直風切變增強及陸地影響而急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

NEOGURI will bring heavy rain, strong winds and rough seas to Hong Kong and adjacent areas from today to Monday. Obtain information related to NEOGURI regularly to ensure safety. Also notice that NEOGURI may be very close to Hong Kong on Sunday (although weakened).

浣熊會於今天至下星期一為香港及鄰近地區帶來大雨、狂風和大浪請定時留意關於浣熊的最新消息以確保安全同時亦請留意雖然浣熊即將減弱,它可能於週日非常接近本港

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/04/19 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+02W (NEOGURI 浣熊) Bulletin 發佈 #7 (2008/04/18, 22:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) NEOGURI 一級颱風 浣熊

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #7
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/04/18, 22:00 HKT (14:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/04/18, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 19.0 N, 111.5 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 80 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 100 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 75 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 95 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 962 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NNE 東北偏北 at 5 knots 節
Area(s) that are affected 受影響地區 Northern South China Sea, Hainan Island, Southern Guangdong 南海北部、海南島及廣東南部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

NEOGURI has been moving N in the past 12 hours. At 20 HKT, NEOGURI was centred about 460 km (250 NM) SW of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Strong Wind Signal Number 3 at 20:40 HKT on 18th April.

浣熊於過去 12 小時大致向北移動。在 20 HKT,浣熊集結在香港西南偏南約 460 公里 (250 海里)。香港天文台已於 4 月 18 日 20:40 HKT 發出三號強風信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

NEOGURI is reaching the NW edge of the subtropical ridge, and a turn to NNE / NE may be observed in the next 24 hours. As seen from steering charts, as NEOGURI weakens, it will turn into a more northeasterly direction as it is subject to steering from lower and lower levels.

隨著浣熊逐漸移到副熱帶高壓脊的西北邊緣,浣熊很可能於未來 24 小時開始其東北偏北至東北的路徑。從駛流圖可以得知,當浣熊減弱,它將會受到較低層大氣環境的影響而向較為偏東北的方向移動,趨向華南沿岸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24 HRS
NEOGURI is forecast to weaken slightly before making landfall at western Guangdong, after which It will weaken rapidly as a result of lack of moisture from the ocean, higher vertical wind shear and land interaction.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24 HRS
預料浣熊將在登陸廣東西部沿岸前稍微減弱,隨後將由於缺乏由海洋提供的水氣、垂直風切變增強及陸地影響而急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

NEOGURI will bring heavy rain, strong winds and rough seas to Hong Kong and adjacent areas from today to Monday. Obtain information related to NEOGURI regularly to ensure safety. Also notice that NEOGURI may be very close to Hong Kong on Sunday (although weakened).

浣熊會於今天至下星期一為香港及鄰近地區帶來大雨、狂風和大浪請定時留意關於浣熊的最新消息以確保安全同時亦請留意雖然浣熊即將減弱,它可能於週日非常接近本港

Next Update 下次更新

16 HKT, 2008/04/19 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
Low 低
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+02W (NEOGURI 浣熊) Bulletin 發佈 #6 (2008/04/18, 12:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 2) NEOGURI 二級颱風 浣熊

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #6
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/04/18, 12:00 HKT (04:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/04/18, 08:00 HKT (00:00 UTC)
Position 位置 18.0 N, 111.5 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 85 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 110 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 80 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 100 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 958 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NNW 西北偏北 at 8 knots 節
Area(s) that are affected 受影響地區 Northern South China Sea, Hainan Island, Southern Guangdong 南海北部、海南島及廣東南部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

NEOGURI continued to move NNW in the past 12 hours, maintaining intensity in the meantime. At 08 HKT, NEOGURI was centred about 550 km (300 NM) SSW of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Standby Signal Number 1 at 16:15 HKT on 17th April.

浣熊於過去 6 小時維持強度並持續向西北偏北移動。在 08 HKT,浣熊集結在香港西南偏南約 550 公里 (330 海里)。香港天文台已於 4 月 17 日 16:15 HKT 發出一號戒備信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The NW edge of the subtropical ridge retreated a bit last night. NEOGURI is expected to recurve after crossing the ridge axis and move in a NNE direction near landfall.

影響浣熊的副熱帶高壓脊西北沿於昨晚稍稍東退。預料當浣熊橫過脊線後將會沿副熱帶高壓脊西北部轉向東北偏北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS
The arriving weak northeast monsoon allowed NEOGURI's outflow channel to improve and thus maintaining intensity in the past 12 hours. The system's intensity should have peaked by now and it is forecast to weaken slightly before skirting the eastern coast of Hainan, after which It will weaken rapidly as a result of lower sea temperatures, higher vertical wind shear and land interaction.

現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS
一股微弱東北季候風為浣熊提供良好的輻散通道,令其於過去 12 小時維持強度。浣熊已到達巔峰強度,預料它將在橫過海南以東海域前稍微減弱,隨後將由於海水溫度逐漸減低、垂直風切變增強及陸地影響而急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

NEOGURI may bring heavy rain, strong winds and rough seas to Hong Kong and adjacent areas from later today to Monday. Obtain information related to NEOGURI regularly to ensure safety.

浣熊將於今天稍後至下星期一為香港及鄰近地區帶來大雨、狂風和大浪請定時留意關於浣熊的最新消息以確保安全

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/04/18 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
High 高
High 高
Very High 極高
High 高
Medium 中等
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
Low 低
Medium 中等
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+02W (NEOGURI 浣熊) Bulletin 發佈 #5 (2008/04/17, 22:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 2) NEOGURI 二級颱風 浣熊

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #5
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/04/17, 22:00 HKT (14:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/04/17, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 16.6 N, 111.8 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 85 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 110 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 80 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 100 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 958 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 N 北 at 7 knots 節
Area(s) that are affected 受影響地區 Northern South China Sea, Hainan Island, Southern Guangdong 南海北部、海南島及廣東南部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

NEOGURI maintained intensity in the past 6 hours. At 20 HKT, NEOGURI was centred about 680 km (370 NM) SSW of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Standby Signal Number 1 at 16:15 HKT.

浣熊於過去 6 小時維持強度。在 20 HKT,浣熊集結在香港西南偏南約 680 公里 (370 海里)。香港天文台已於 16:15 HKT 發出一號戒備信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

NEOGURI has been moving N in the past six hours. It is expected to recurve after crossing the ridge axis and move in a NE direction near landfall.

浣熊於過去 6 小時向偏北方向移動。預料當浣熊橫過脊線後將會沿副熱帶高壓脊西北部轉向東北加速移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.5/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS [W0.5/06 HRS]
NEOGURI has been intensifying slightly in the past 24 hours due to enhanced outflow channels brought by the arriving westerly trough. The system's intensity should have peaked by now and it is forecast to weaken slightly before making landfall at eastern Hainan, after which It will weaken rapidly as a result of lower sea temperatures, higher vertical wind shear and land interaction.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS [W0.5/06 HRS]
西風槽繼續為浣熊提供良好的輻散通道,令該系統於過去 24 小時繼續增強。浣熊已到達巔峰強度,預料它將在登陸海南東部前稍微減弱,隨後將由於海水溫度逐漸減低、垂直風切變增強及陸地影響而急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

NEOGURI may bring heavy rain, strong winds and rough seas to Hong Kong and adjacent areas from tomorrow to Monday. Obtain information related to NEOGURI regularly to ensure safety.

浣熊將於明天至下星期一為香港及鄰近地區帶來大雨、狂風和大浪請定時留意關於浣熊的最新消息以確保安全

Next Update 下次更新

13 HKT, 2008/04/18 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Medium 中等
High 高
High 高
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
Low 低
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+02W (NEOGURI 浣熊) Bulletin 發佈 #4 (2008/04/17, 16:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 2) NEOGURI 二級颱風 浣熊

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #4
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/04/17, 16:00 HKT (08:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/04/17, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 15.9 N, 111.9 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 85 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 110 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 80 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 100 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 958 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NNW 西北偏北 at 8 knots 節
Area(s) that are affected 受影響地區 Northern South China Sea, Hainan Island, Western Guangdong 南海北部、海南島及廣東西部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

NEOGURI has intensified further in the last 24 hours and has started a more northerly track. At 14 HKT, NEOGURI was centred about 750 km (410 NM) SSW of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Standby Signal Number 1 at 16:15 HKT.

浣熊於過去 24 小時略作增強,並開始其偏北路徑。在 14 HKT,浣熊集結在香港西南偏南約 750 公里 (410 海里)。香港天文台已於 16:15 HKT 發出一號戒備信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

NEOGURI has turned poleward last night, followed by a NNW track. NEOGURI is expected to recurve after crossing the ridge axis and move in a NE direction near landfall.

浣熊昨晚轉向偏北方向移動,而當浣熊橫過脊線後將會沿副熱帶高壓脊西北部轉向東北加速移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS
NEOGURI has been intensifying slightly in the past 24 hours due to enhanced outflow channels brought by the arriving westerly trough. The system's intensity should have peaked by now and it is forecast to weaken slightly before making landfall at eastern Hainan, after which It will weaken rapidly as a result of lower sea temperatures, higher vertical wind shear and land interaction.

現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS
西風槽繼續為浣熊提供良好的輻散通道,令該系統於過去 24 小時繼續增強。浣熊已到達巔峰強度,預料它將在登陸海南東部前稍微減弱,隨後將由於海水溫度逐漸減低、垂直風切變增強及陸地影響而急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

NEOGURI may bring heavy rain, strong winds and rough seas to Hong Kong and adjacent areas from tomorrow to Monday. Obtain information related to NEOGURI regularly to ensure safety.

浣熊將於明天至下星期一為香港及鄰近地區帶來大雨、狂風和大浪請定時留意關於浣熊的最新消息以確保安全

Next Update 下次更新

00 HKT, 2008/04/18 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Medium 中等
High 高
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
Low 低
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+02W (NEOGURI 浣熊) Bulletin 發佈 #3 (2008/04/16, 16:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) NEOGURI 一級颱風 浣熊

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #3
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/04/16, 16:30 HKT (08:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/04/16, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 13.4 N, 112.4 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 70 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 85 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 75 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 966 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 7 knots 節
Area(s) that are affected 受影響地區 Northern South China Sea, Hainan Island 南海北部和海南島

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

NEOGURI has intensified rapidly in the last 24 hours, attaining typhoon status today afternoon. At 14 HKT, NEOGURI was centred about 380 km (200 NM) S of Xisha.

浣熊於過去 24 小時急速增強,並於中午增強為颱風。在 14 HKT,浣熊集結在西沙以南約 380 公里 (200 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

A weakness induced by the arriving trough is clearly visible in the subtropical ridge ENE of NEOGURI, suggesting a turn to the NW/NNW is imminent. As the ridge axis is situated at about 18N, NEOGURI is expected to recurve and move in a NE direction when it approaches northern South China Sea.

一條西風槽正在浣熊東北偏東的副熱帶高壓脊造成一個弱點,表示浣熊即將轉向西北或西北偏北方向移動。由於副高脊線於約北緯 18 度,當浣熊向北移至該地區將會開始向東北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.0/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS
NEOGURI has been intensifying at above climatological rate in the past 24 hours due to enhanced outflow channels brought by the arriving westerly trough. The system is forecast to intensify further under favorable environments before reaching 19N, after which It will weaken as a result of lower sea temperatures, higher vertical wind shear and land interaction.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS
剛到來的西風槽為浣熊提供更佳的輻散通道,令該系統於過去 24 小時急劇增強預料浣熊能於良好環境下繼續增強,但當浣熊到達北緯 19 度時將由於海水溫度逐漸減低、垂直風切變增強及陸地影響而減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

The outer rainbands of NEOGURI may bring heavy rain to Hong Kong and adjacent areas in 3 days.

浣熊的外圍雨帶將於三天後為香港及鄰近地區帶來大雨

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2008/04/17 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Low 低
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+02W (NEOGURI 浣熊) Bulletin 發佈 #2 (2008/04/15, 18:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS NEOGURI 熱帶風暴 浣熊

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #2
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/04/15, 18:00 HKT (10:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/04/15, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 10.8 N, 115.9 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 40 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 50 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 45 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 998 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 10 knots 節
Area(s) that are affected 受影響地區 Central South China Sea 南海中部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

JMA, HKO and CWB upgraded 02W today, and JMA has named this tropical storm NEOGURI. At 14 HKT, NEOGURI was centred about 770 km (420 NM) SSE of Xisha.

JMA, HKO 及 CWB 均於今天升格 02W,而 JMA 已將 02W 命名為浣熊。在 14 HKT,浣熊集結在西沙東南偏南約 770 公里 (420 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

Subject to the subtropical ridge NNE of NEOGURI, it has been moving WNW in the past 24 hours. The ridge has shown signs of retreat in the past 24 hours, and major models predict that this ridge will retreat further after t+24, allowing NEOGURI to turn poleward. The storm has also been moving slower at 10 knots in the past 24 hours. As the ridge axis is situated at about 19N, NEOGURI is expected to recurve and move in a NE direction when it approaches northern South China Sea. It should be noted that where the storm starts to recurve and the intensity it can gain play a considerable role in determining the affected area. At present, ECMWF forecasts a landfall at Pearl River Estuary in 120 hours while NOGAPS puts the storm towards the Gulf of Tonkin. GFS is somewhere in between --- making first landfall at Hainan and then recurving NE towards Pearl River Estuary. Therefore major models still differ significantly in terms of future track and landfall.

受到浣熊東北偏北的副熱帶高壓脊影響,該系統於過去 24 小時向西北偏西方向移動。該副高已於過去 24 小時逐漸東退,而各大預測模式亦指出該高壓脊將於 24 小時後加速東退,從而令浣熊轉向偏北方向移動。浣熊於過去 24 小時減速至約 10 節。由於副高脊線於約北緯 19 度,當浣熊向北移至該地區將會開始向東北移動。值得留意的是浣熊轉向的位置和可到達的強度將決定中國南部地區受影響的範圍。目前,ECMWF 預計浣熊將於 120 小時後於珠江口附近登陸,NOGAPS 預計浣熊將趨向北部灣,而 GFS 則顯示浣熊將分別於海南及珠江口作兩次登陸,可見各大模式在路徑上存在著頗大的分歧。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
At present, the sea surface temperature at central South China Sea is about 28 degrees. Coupled with low to moderate vertical wind shear, NEOGURI is expected to intensify into a typhoon when it traverses South China Sea. It will weaken as a result of lower sea temperatures and higher wind shear as it moves north of 18 - 20 degrees north.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
現時南海中部海水溫度約28度,且垂直風切變中等,預料浣熊可以於該環境中增強至颱風強度隨後由於海水溫度逐漸減低及垂直風切變增強,浣熊將會減弱直至登陸

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours. However, extended period forecasts call for landfall in the vicinity of Hong Kong adjacent waters, which should be noticed if one engages in water activities.

浣熊於未來的72小時將不會對香港構成任何影響可是,根據 72 小時後的預測浣熊有可能靠近香港鄰近水域,參與水上活動人士應該加倍注意安全

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2008/04/16 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+02W (NEOGURI 浣熊) Bulletin 發佈 #1 (2008/04/14, 21:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS 02W 熱帶風暴 02W

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #1
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/04/14, 21:00 HKT (13:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/04/14, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 9.3 N, 119.1 E
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 45 knots 節)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (Gusts 陣風: 40 knots 節)
Pressure 氣壓 998 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 (Initial observation 首次觀測)
Area(s) that are affected 受影響地區 Western Philippines 菲律賓西部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

JTWC has upgraded 99W into a tropical depression, and was given a temporary number 02W. 02W has intensified into a tropical storm at 20 HKT on the same day. At 20 HKT, 02W was centred about 1110 km (600 NM) SE of Xisha.

JTWC 在上午升格 99W 為熱帶低氣壓,並給予臨時編號 02W。該系統並於下午八時增強為一熱帶風暴。在 20 HKT,02W 集結在西沙東南約 1110 公里 (600 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

Subject to the subtropical ridge north of 02W, it has been moving W in the past 24 hours. Major models predict that this ridge will retreat gradually after t+48 to t+72, allowing 02W to turn poleward. The additional easterly airstream is causing 02W to move faster at the time being, and this situation is expected to cease after t+24 to t+48 when the system turns poleward. As the ridge axis is situated at about 20N, 02W is expected to recurve and move in a NE direction when it approaches northern South China Sea. It should be noted that where the storm starts to recurve and the intensity it can gain play a considerable role in determining the affected area. At present, ECMWF forecasts a landfall at Shantou in 144 hours and NOGAPS favours a more western landfall (at Hainan).

受到 02W 以北的副熱帶高壓脊影響,該系統於過去 24 小時向偏西方向移動。各大預測模式均指出該高壓脊將於 48 至 72 小時後東退,從而令 02W 轉向偏北方向移動。另外,正影響該系統的偏東氣流令 02W 以更快速度向西移動,但隨著副高東退,此快速移動預計會於 24 至 48 小時後結束。由於副高脊線於約北緯 20 度,當 02W 向北移至該地區將會開始向東北移動。值得留意的是 02W 轉向的位置和可到達的強度將決定中國南部地區受影響的範圍。目前,ECMWF 預計 02W 將於 144 小時後於汕頭附近地區登陸,而 NOGAPS 則預計 02W 會於海南一帶登陸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
At present, the sea surface temperature at central South China Sea is about 28 degrees. Coupled with low to moderate vertical wind shear, 02W is expected to intensify into a typhoon when it traverses South China Sea. It will weaken as a result of lower sea temperatures and higher wind shear as it moves north of 18 - 20 degrees north.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
現時南海中部海水溫度約28度,且垂直風切變中等,預料 02W 可以於該環境中增強至颱風強度隨後由於海水溫度逐漸減低及垂直風切變增強,02W 將會減弱直至登陸

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours. However, extended period forecasts call for landfall in the vicinity of Hong Kong adjacent waters, which should be noticed if one engages in water activities.

02W 於未來的72小時將不會對香港構成任何影響可是,根據 72 小時後的預測 02W 有可能靠近香港鄰近水域,參與水上活動人士應該加倍注意安全

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2008/04/15 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

Track Data from HKWW 本站之路徑資料

YYMMDDZZ Lat Long Wind
08041400 098N1222E 025
08041406 092N1205E 030
08041412 093N1191E 035
08041418 098N1177E 035
08041500 105N1169E 035
08041506 108N1159E 040
08041512 114N1148E 040
08041518 117N1138E 045
08041600 131N1130E 060
08041606 134N1124E 070
08041612 137N1126E 075
08041618 147N1123E 075
08041700 151N1121E 080
08041706 159N1119E 085
08041712 166N1118E 085
08041718 173N1119E 085
08041800 180N1115E 085
08041806 185N1113E 085
08041812 190N1115E 080
08041818 198N1115E 075
08041900 206N1116E 060
08041906 214N1120E 055
08041912 228N1130E 040

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