Notice: Bulletin #13 has been adjusted to final bulletin status. FENGSHEN weakened into an area of low pressure this (26/6) morning.
通告 : 發佈第 13 號已更改為最後發佈,而風神經已在今 (26/6) 早減弱為一低壓區。
1. 07W (FENGSHEN 風神)
Name of System 系統名稱
TS FENGSHEN 熱帶風暴 風神
Bulletin Number 發佈編號
#13C FINAL BULLETIN 最後發佈
Time of Report 報告時間
2008/06/25, 22:30 HKT (14:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間
2008/06/25, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置
23.3 N, 113.9 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風
55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速
40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速
35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓
998 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速
Quasi-stationary 幾乎停留不動
Area(s) affected 受影響地區
Central Guangdong 廣東中部
Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
FENGSHEN remained nearly stationary near Dongguan in the past 6 hours. At 20 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 120 km (60 NM) NNW of Hong Kong. The Observatory has cancelled all tropical cyclone warning signals at 22:15 HKT.
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
FENGSHEN was closest to the Observatory at 04 HKT today (E 15 km), making landfall at Shenzhen. At 11 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 90 km (50 NM) N of the Hong Kong Observatory. The Observatory issued the No. 8 NE Gale or Storm Signal at 22:45 HKT last night, and was replaced by the No. 8 NW Signal and SW Signal at 00:45 and 05:45 HKT today respectively. Due to FENGSHEN's decreasing threat, the Observatory has issued the Strong Wind Signal No. 3 at 11:15 HKT.
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
FENGSHEN moved steadily NNW in the past 6 hours towards Hong Kong. At 02 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 50 km (25 NM) SE of the Hong Kong Observatory. The Observatory issued the No. 8 NE Gale or Storm Signal at 22:45 HKT on 2008/06/24, and was replaced by the No. 8 NW Signal at 00:45 HKT 2008/06/25.
A slight northwestern extension of the ridge to the southeast of the storm is visible in steering charts, and that extension has moved westward to about 25N 113E. Therefore, it is expected that FENGSHEN will move NNW towards area in the vicinity of Hong Kong and will then track NNE after making landfall along the NW periphery of the ridge.
Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
It is expected that FENGSHEN will be able to maintain strength before landfall at t+6, after which it will weaken as it encounters land. It will dissipate inland near t+48.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS 預料風神將在登陸前 (t+6) 維持強度,其後由於接近陸地而減弱。風神將於 48 小時後在中國東南部消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
In the current forecast, FENGSHEN will make landfall at Hong Kong (closest point of approach is projected to be about 20 to 30 km ENE of the Observatory). As FENGSHEN's strnog winds associated with the rainbands are constrained to the southern quadrant and the system is small, winds will pick up rapidly tonight. NW winds are expected to reach gale force or above, turning counterclockwise to SW gradually. Heavy rain is about to start. Please perform all necessary precautionary measures and refer to official positions and forecast tracks to obtain the latest information.
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
FENGSHEN moved steadily NNW in the past 12 hours towards central Guangdong. At 20 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 140 km (80 NM) SSE of Hong Kong. The Observatory issued the No. 8 NE Gale or Storm Signal at 22:45 HKT on 2008/06/24, and was replaced by the No. 8 NW Signal at 00:45 HKT 2008/06/25.
A slight northwestern extension of the ridge to the southeast of the storm is visible in steering charts, and that extension has moved westward to about 25N 114E. Therefore, it is expected that FENGSHEN will move NNW towards area in the vicinity of Hong Kong and will then track NNE after making landfall along the NW periphery of the ridge.
Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
It is expected that FENGSHEN will be able to maintain strength before landfall at t+12, after which it will weaken as it encounters land. It will dissipate inland near t+48.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS 預料風神將在登陸前 (t+12) 維持強度,其後由於接近陸地而減弱。風神將於 48 小時後在中國東南部消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
In the current forecast, FENGSHEN will make landfall at Hong Kong (closest point of approach is projected to be about 10 to 20 km E of the Observatory). As FENGSHEN's strnog winds associated with the rainbands are constrained to the southern quadrant and the system is small, winds will pick up rapidly tonight. NE winds are expected to reach gale force or above, turning counterclockwise to SW gradually. Rain is expected starting from tonight. Please perform all necessary precautionary measures and refer to official positions and forecast tracks to obtain the latest information.
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
FENGSHEN moved steadily NNW in the past 12 hours towards Guangdong. As the system is small, Hong Kong's weather has not yet worsened even though FENGSHEN is already quite close to Hong Kong. At 08 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 340 km (190 NM) SSE of Hong Kong.
A slight northwestern extension of the ridge to the southeast of the storm is visible in steering charts, and that extension has moved westward to about 24N 115E. Therefore, it is now expected that FENGSHEN will move NNW before landfall and will then track NE afterwards along the NW periphery of the ridge.
Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
Although FENGSHEN has consolidated as it shrinks, the strong shear that FENGSHEN encounters is inhibiting its strengthening despite it is situated in warm sea surfaces with plenty of moisture from SW monsoon. It is expected that FENGSHEN will be able to maintain strength before landfall due to the combined effect of these factors, after which it will weaken as it encounters land. It will dissipate inland near t+72.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
風神環流於過去 24 小時變得更集中。可是,雖然風神處於溫暖和有充足水氣的地點,但受到強烈垂直風切變影響,風神無法增強。預料風神將在登陸前維持強度,其後由於接近陸地而減弱。風神將於 72 小時後在中國東南部消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
In the current forecast, FENGSHEN will make landfall within 100 km of Hong Kong. Winds will strengthen from the east then north near t+12 as FENGSHEN is approaching. Onset of rain is expected later today. The Observatory will consider the Strong Wind Signal in the evening. Please refer to official positions and forecast tracks to obtain the latest information.
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
FENGSHEN moved NW in the past 12 hours, and HKO has downgraded it into a severe tropical storm (the last major official agencies to do so). At 20 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 550 km (290 NM) SSE of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Standby Signal at 07:40 HKT today.
FENGSHEN is in a weak steering environment currently, and from steering charts the ridge N of it has not yet disappeared completely (slight western extension can be seen near 23N 118E). The wind shear is still tearing newly-formed convections to the WSW of the storm, and its internal force (due to Coriolis effect) is deemed a major contribution to its NW track. Under this weak steering force it is expected that FENGSHEN will move NW to NNW in the next 24 hours, after which the extending equatorial anticyclone should be able to provide enough steering to allow a recurvature.
Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
The strong shear that FENGSHEN encounters is inhibiting its strengthening despite it is situated in warm sea surfaces with plenty of moisture from SW monsoon. It is expected that FENGSHEN will be able to maintain strength before landfall due to the combined effect of these factors, after which it will weaken as it encounters land. It will begin extratropical transition near t+72.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
雖然風神處於溫暖和有充足水氣的地點,但受到強烈垂直風切變影響,風神無法增強。預料風神將在登陸前維持強度,其後由於接近陸地而減弱。風神將於 72 小時後開始溫帶氣旋轉化。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Winds will strengthen from the northeast near t+24 to t+36 as FENGSHEN is approaching. Onset of rain is expected on Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning. Note that these depend greatly on FENGSHEN's point of recurvature, which is far from certain at this moment. Slight changes in the position of this point may result in completely different scenarios. Please refer to official positions and forecasts often to receive latest information.
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
FENGSHEN further lost longitude in the past 12 hours, and has been downgraded into a severe tropical storm. At 08 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 690 km (370 NM) SSE of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Standby Signal at 07:40 HKT today.
FENGSHEN's convection continues to be sheared to the west, while the storm's LLCC is moving WNW to NW in the past 12 hours. It is forecast that it will travel NNW under the influence of the ridge east of it, and will turn poleward then NE near t+36 towards Fujian as it moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge.
Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/12 HRS
The strong shear that FENGSHEN encounters is contributing to its weakening. Slight intensification is still possible as it moves through the warm South China Sea but this factor will be quickly outweighed by lower sea surface temperatures and land interactions with Fujian by t+48.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/12 HRS
受到強烈垂直風切變影響,風神昨夜起開始減弱。風神仍有機會在溫暖的南海中增強少許,但 48 小時後風神將受較低水溫和與福建的陸地相互影響而減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Subsidence air associated with FENGSHEN will bring very hot weather and light winds to Hong Kong today. Winds will strengthen from the northeast near t+36 as FENGSHEN is approaching. Onset of rain is expected on Tuesday evening.
Philippines, Northeastern South China Sea 菲律賓和南海東北部
Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
As FENGSHEN was crossing Luzon, convections formed to the west of the system and has led to a western relocation at 20 HKT. At 20 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 880 km (470 NM) SE of Hong Kong.
Convections were seen to be forming near 117-119E since 16 HKT today and multiple potential centres have formed. It is therefore quite uncertain in the fix for 20 HKT (this bulletin), especially in its latitude. It is expected that the storm may move further west in the next 12 hours as the new centre is forming, and that the latitude will not increase by as much as in a NNW movement because most of the convections form below 16N, and the formation of a new centre may occur below that latitude. On the other hand, it can be seen from steering charts that the ridge N of FENGSHEN has collapsed at the 400-850 hPa layer, and that the storm should be tracked NNW/N after it consolidates. FENGSHEN will recurve near t+48 towards Taiwan as it moves along the northwestern periphery of the steering ridge currently to the east of it.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.5/S0.0/06 HRS
FENGSHEN has moved offshore and slight intensification is expected through t+48 (great intensification is not expected as the vertical wind shear in South China Sea is forecast to be high), after which lower sea surface temperatures and land interactions with Fujian and/or Taiwan will cause it to weaken after t+60.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.5/S0.0/06 HRS
風神已移離菲律賓大陸。由於南海的垂直風切變仍然頗高,預料風神只能作少許增強;60 小時後風神將受較低水溫和與福建及/或台灣的陸地相互影響而減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
It is expected that the subsidence air associated with FENGSHEN will bring very hot weather and light winds to Hong Kong in the next two days. Winds might strengthen from the northeast if FENGSHEN manages to edge even closer (less than 400 kilometres).
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
FENGSHEN travelled NNW in the past 24 hours and has weakened into a category 1 typhoon. At 14 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 100 km (60 NM) NW of Manila.
As the ridge N of FENGSHEN continues to weaken and the equatorial anticyclone E of the storm intensifies, it will travel NNW/N then NNE as the influence of the ridge to the north breaks down completely after t+36 to t+48.
隨著風神北面的高壓脊逐漸減弱而東面的赤道反氣旋繼續增強,預計風神將向西北偏北/北轉東北偏北移動。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T4.0/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS
FENGSHEN interacted with the landmass of Luzon and thus has weakened in the past 24 hours. As the vertical wind shear in South China Sea has increased considerably last night (to above 30 knots), great intensification is not expected as FENGSHEN moves back to the ocean. Land interactions with Fujian and/or Taiwan will again hamper its intensification near t+60.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS
風神昨夜經過呂宋島的陸地,強度因而降低。由於南海的垂直風切變昨夜大幅增強至 30 節以上,預料風神在進入南海時不能作大幅增強;隨後風神將受福建及/或台灣的陸地影響而減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
It is expected that the subsidence air associated with FENGSHEN will bring very hot weather and light winds to Hong Kong in the next two days.
預料與風神相關連的下沉氣流將於未來兩天為香港帶來微風和酷熱的天氣。
Next Update 下次更新
00 HKT, 2008/06/23 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Medium 中等
High 高
High 高
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
FENGSHEN travelled due west last night, but started a northwesterly track a few hours ago. At 14 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 300 km (160 NM) SSE of Manila.
The ridge N of FENGSHEN has weakened appreciably in the past 24 hours. As it continues to weaken, FENGSHEN will gradually be steered dominantly by the equatorial anticyclone east of it and move N. The current forecast calls for a recurvature less acute than that of the previous bulletin.
Current T-number: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24 HRS
The southwesterly airstream has supplied moisture to allow FENGSHEN's strengthening in the past 24 hours. FENGSHEN is expected to weaken slightly as it passes through the islands in central/western Philippines. As it enters open water once again, it should intensify slightly, before weakening due to increasing vertical wind shear and lower water heat content near landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24 HRS
受惠於西南氣流所帶來的濕潤空氣,風神於過去 24 小時作少許增強。預料風神將於經過菲律賓中西部的島嶼時稍為減弱,但會於進入南海時再度增強。風神將於登陸前因較高垂直風切變和較低水溫而減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
It is expected that the subsidence air associated with FENGSHEN will bring very hot weather and light winds to Hong Kong in the next two days.
預料與風神相關連的下沉氣流將於未來兩天為香港帶來微風和酷熱的天氣。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2008/06/22 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
FENGSHEN accelerated and moved in a WNW direction in the past 24 hours. It has also developed an eye and has made its first landfall at the Philippines near noon today. At 14 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 590 km (320 NM) SE of Manila.
The ridge that is expected to weaken in fact did not weaken at the rate as expected. However from steering charts, it is seen that another subtropical ridge east of the ridge N of FENGSHEN has gradually extended westward at a rather low latitude in the past 24 hours. FENGSHEN is moving fast due WNW now and this trend is expected to continue in the next 12 to 24 hours. Afterwards, as the ridge N of FENGSHEN should weaken and the one E of it will continue to extend westward at a low latitude, FENGSHEN will be steered by this new ridge and is expected to go north near t+48. It is worth noticing that FENGSHEN's intensity during its passage across the Philippines will also affect its future track, and thus the uncertainty in the current forecast is quite high.
Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS
FENGSHEN is expected to maintain strength (or even intensify a bit) as it passes through the islands in central Philippines. However, if FENGSHEN recurves earlier than expected, its structure may be severely damaged by the mountainous Luzon.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS
預料風神將於現時的強度橫過菲律賓中部 (或會作少許增強),但如果它比預期早轉向,它的結構將會被呂宋的高山所破壞。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
風神於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2008/06/21 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
07W picked up convection last night and has intensified into a tropical storm, which was named FENGSHEN by the JMA. At 14 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 1100 km (600 NM) ESE of Manila.
FENGSHEN intensified faster than expected and thus it is now being influenced by the steering subtropical ridge to a greater extent. FENGSHEN should maintain its W/WNW movement in the next 24 hours as it is still situated south of that ridge. However a mid-latitude trough will cause the ridge to retreat and a weakness will allow FENGSHEN to turn poleward gradually after t+36.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS
FENGSHEN is expected to intensify at a pace faster than climatological rate as it will travel through a warm environment with little shear and good outflow channels. Its strength will depend greatly on how west it can travel before turning north, as this affects by how much it will be affected by land interactions with the Philippines.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS 風神於未來 72 小時將經過弱垂直風切變的地區。輔以頗高的水溫和良好的輻散通道,風神應可以高於氣候平均值的速度增強。要注意的是如果風神繼續西進至菲律賓陸地才轉向,它可能會受陸地影響而不能以氣候平均值的速度增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
風神於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2008/06/20 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
A disturbance east of the Philippines has intensified into a tropical depression today (07W). At 20 HKT, 07W was centred about 1370 km (740 NM) ESE of Manila.
Subject to the subtropical ridge north of the system, 07W should maintain its WNW movement in the next 24 hours. However a mid-latitude trough will cause the ridge to retreat, thereby allowing 07W to turn poleward gradually after t+36.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
07W is expected to intensify at a pace faster than climatological rate as it will travel through a warm environment with little shear.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
07W 於未來 72 小時將經過弱垂直風切變的地區。輔以頗高的水溫,07W 應可以高於氣候平均值的速度增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
07W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2008/06/19 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率