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Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋

Current TC Map 即時氣旋資訊Current TC information

Tropical Cyclone Report 熱帶氣旋報告 [Our partner site's TC report 按此看友站的氣旋報告]

Notice: Bulletin #13 has been adjusted to final bulletin status. FENGSHEN weakened into an area of low pressure this (26/6) morning.
通告 : 發佈第 13 號已更改為最後發佈,而風神經已在今 (26/6) 早減弱為一低壓區。

1. 07W (FENGSHEN 風神)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS FENGSHEN 熱帶風暴 風神

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #13C FINAL BULLETIN 最後發佈
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/06/25, 22:30 HKT (14:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/06/25, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 23.3 N, 113.9 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 998 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 Quasi-stationary 幾乎停留不動
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central Guangdong 廣東中部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

FENGSHEN remained nearly stationary near Dongguan in the past 6 hours. At 20 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 120 km (60 NM) NNW of Hong Kong. The Observatory has cancelled all tropical cyclone warning signals at 22:15 HKT.

風神於過去 6 小時在東莞幾乎停留不動。在 20 HKT,風神集結在香港之西北偏北約 120 公里 (60 海里)。天文台已於 22:15 HKT 取消所有熱帶氣旋警告訊號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

FENGSHEN will move NNE at the northwestern periphery of the steering ridge.

風神將沿副熱帶高壓脊的西北面向東北偏北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: N/A
FENGSHEN will dissipate inland near t+24.

現時的 T 號碼: 不適用
風神將於 24 小時後在中國東南部消散

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Heavy rains and winds associated with FENGSHEN will gradually subside in the next 24 hours.

與風神相關連的雨勢和風勢會在未來 24 小時逐漸減弱

Next Update 下次更新

This is the final bulletin on FENGSHEN.

這是本站對風神的最後一次發佈

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用



Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告 (請按發佈編號顯示內容)

+07W (FENGSHEN 風神) Bulletin 發佈 #12 (2008/06/25, 11:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS FENGSHEN 強烈熱帶風暴 風神

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #12
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/06/25, 11:30 HKT (03:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/06/25, 11:00 HKT (03:00 UTC)
Position 位置 23.1 N, 114.0 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 50 knots 節 (90 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 992 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NNW 西北偏北 at 7 knots 節 (13 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central Guangdong 廣東中部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

FENGSHEN was closest to the Observatory at 04 HKT today (E 15 km), making landfall at Shenzhen. At 11 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 90 km (50 NM) N of the Hong Kong Observatory. The Observatory issued the No. 8 NE Gale or Storm Signal at 22:45 HKT last night, and was replaced by the No. 8 NW Signal and SW Signal at 00:45 and 05:45 HKT today respectively. Due to FENGSHEN's decreasing threat, the Observatory has issued the Strong Wind Signal No. 3 at 11:15 HKT.

風神於凌晨 4 時最為接近香港天文台,在其東面約 15 公里掠過,其後風神登陸深圳。在 11 HKT,風神集結在香港天文台以北約 90 公里 (50 海里)。天文台於昨天 22:45 HKT 發出 8 號東北烈風或暴風訊號,並分別於今天 00:45 及 05:45 改發 8 號西北和西南烈風或暴風訊號。由於風神的威脅逐漸降低,天文台於 11:15 HKT 改發三號強風訊號

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

FENGSHEN will move NNW then turn NNE at the northwestern periphery of the steering ridge.

風神將沿副熱帶高壓脊的西北面向西北偏北轉東北偏北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: N/A
FENGSHEN will dissipate inland near t+24.

現時的 T 號碼: 不適用
風神將於 24 小時後在中國東南部消散

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

The enhanced SW monsoon will bring rain to Hong Kong today and tomorrow. Occasional storm force gust in some areas is expected until tonight.

西南季候風將於今明兩日為香港帶來雨水部分地區於今晚前仍會錄得達暴風程度的陣風

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/06/25 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+07W (FENGSHEN 風神) Bulletin 發佈 #11 (2008/06/25, 03:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS FENGSHEN 強烈熱帶風暴 風神

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #11
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/06/25, 03:00 HKT (19:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/06/25, 02:00 HKT (18:00 UTC)
Position 位置 21.2 N, 114.9 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 50 knots 節 (90 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 985 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NNW 西北偏北 at 9 knots 節 (16 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central Guangdong coastal areas 廣東中部沿岸

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

FENGSHEN moved steadily NNW in the past 6 hours towards Hong Kong. At 02 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 50 km (25 NM) SE of the Hong Kong Observatory. The Observatory issued the No. 8 NE Gale or Storm Signal at 22:45 HKT on 2008/06/24, and was replaced by the No. 8 NW Signal at 00:45 HKT 2008/06/25.

風神於過去 6 小時向西北偏北移動,趨向香港一帶。在 02 HKT,風神集結在香港天文台之東南約 50 公里 (25 海里)。天文台已於 2008/06/24 22:45 HKT 發出 8 號東北烈風或暴風訊號,並於 2008/06/25 00:45 改發 8 號西北烈風或暴風訊號

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

A slight northwestern extension of the ridge to the southeast of the storm is visible in steering charts, and that extension has moved westward to about 25N 113E. Therefore, it is expected that FENGSHEN will move NNW towards area in the vicinity of Hong Kong and will then track NNE after making landfall along the NW periphery of the ridge.

從駛流圖可見,在風神東南面的高壓脊之西北部延伸今日繼續向西伸展至 25N 113E 附近。於這駛流中,風神將向西北偏北移動趨向香港鄰近地區,登陸後沿該脊西北面向東北偏北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
It is expected that FENGSHEN will be able to maintain strength before landfall at t+6, after which it will weaken as it encounters land. It will dissipate inland near t+48.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
預料風神將在登陸前 (t+6) 維持強度,其後由於接近陸地而減弱風神將於 48 小時後在中國東南部消散

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

In the current forecast, FENGSHEN will make landfall at Hong Kong (closest point of approach is projected to be about 20 to 30 km ENE of the Observatory). As FENGSHEN's strnog winds associated with the rainbands are constrained to the southern quadrant and the system is small, winds will pick up rapidly tonight. NW winds are expected to reach gale force or above, turning counterclockwise to SW gradually. Heavy rain is about to start. Please perform all necessary precautionary measures and refer to official positions and forecast tracks to obtain the latest information.

根據本發佈,風神將於香港天文台東北偏東 20 至 30 公里掠過由於風神系統細小而雨帶集中在其南面,預料風勢即將急速增強香港將普遍吹西北烈風 (或更強),逐漸以反時針方向轉為西南風雨勢也正開始增強請做足防風措施並經常留意官方定位和預測來獲取最新資訊

Next Update 下次更新

New advisories are issued as necessary after the No. 8 Gale or Storm Signal is issued. Please stay tuned for latest updates.

八號烈風或暴風訊號發出後本站將於有需要時作出發佈,請定時留意本站的最新發佈資料

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W (FENGSHEN 風神) Bulletin 發佈 #10 (2008/06/24, 22:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS FENGSHEN 強烈熱帶風暴 風神

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #10
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/06/24, 22:30 HKT (14:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/06/24, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 21.2 N, 114.9 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 80 knots 節 (150 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 985 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NNW 西北偏北 at 11 knots 節 (20 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central Guangdong coastal areas 廣東中部沿岸

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

FENGSHEN moved steadily NNW in the past 12 hours towards central Guangdong. At 20 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 140 km (80 NM) SSE of Hong Kong. The Observatory issued the No. 8 NE Gale or Storm Signal at 22:45 HKT on 2008/06/24, and was replaced by the No. 8 NW Signal at 00:45 HKT 2008/06/25.

風神於過去 12 小時向西北偏北移動,繼續趨向廣東中部沿岸。在 20 HKT,風神集結在香港之東南偏南約 140 公里 (80 海里)。天文台已於 2008/06/24 22:45 HKT 發出 8 號東北烈風或暴風訊號,並於 2008/06/25 00:45 改發 8 號西北烈風或暴風訊號

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

A slight northwestern extension of the ridge to the southeast of the storm is visible in steering charts, and that extension has moved westward to about 25N 114E. Therefore, it is expected that FENGSHEN will move NNW towards area in the vicinity of Hong Kong and will then track NNE after making landfall along the NW periphery of the ridge.

從駛流圖可見,在風神東南面的高壓脊之西北部延伸今日繼續向西伸展至 25N 114E 附近。於這駛流中,風神將向西北偏北移動趨向香港鄰近地區,登陸後沿該脊西北面向東北偏北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
It is expected that FENGSHEN will be able to maintain strength before landfall at t+12, after which it will weaken as it encounters land. It will dissipate inland near t+48.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
預料風神將在登陸前 (t+12) 維持強度,其後由於接近陸地而減弱風神將於 48 小時後在中國東南部消散

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

In the current forecast, FENGSHEN will make landfall at Hong Kong (closest point of approach is projected to be about 10 to 20 km E of the Observatory). As FENGSHEN's strnog winds associated with the rainbands are constrained to the southern quadrant and the system is small, winds will pick up rapidly tonight. NE winds are expected to reach gale force or above, turning counterclockwise to SW gradually. Rain is expected starting from tonight. Please perform all necessary precautionary measures and refer to official positions and forecast tracks to obtain the latest information.

根據本發佈,風神將於香港天文台以東 10 至 20 公里掠過由於風神系統細小而雨帶集中在其南面,預料風勢將於未來 12 小時內急速增強香港將普遍吹東北烈風 (或更強),逐漸以反時針方向轉為西南風雨勢將於今晚開始增強請做足防風措施並經常留意官方定位和預測來獲取最新資訊

Next Update 下次更新

New advisories are issued as necessary after the No. 8 Gale or Storm Signal is issued. Please stay tuned for latest updates.

八號烈風或暴風訊號發出後本站將於有需要時作出發佈,請定時留意本站的最新發佈資料

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Low 低
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W (FENGSHEN 風神) Bulletin 發佈 #9 (2008/06/24, 12:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS FENGSHEN 強烈熱帶風暴 風神

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #9
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/06/24, 12:00 HKT (04:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/06/24, 08:00 HKT (00:00 UTC)
Position 位置 19.6 N, 115.8 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 80 knots 節 (150 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 985 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NNW 西北偏北 at 12 knots 節 (22 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central/Eastern Guangdong coastal areas 廣東中東部沿岸

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

FENGSHEN moved steadily NNW in the past 12 hours towards Guangdong. As the system is small, Hong Kong's weather has not yet worsened even though FENGSHEN is already quite close to Hong Kong. At 08 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 340 km (190 NM) SSE of Hong Kong.

風神於過去 12 小時向西北偏北移動,大致趨向廣東。由於風神環流細小,雖然風神已頗接近香港但香港的天氣仍未見轉壞。在 08 HKT,風神集結在香港之東南偏南約 340 公里 (190 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

A slight northwestern extension of the ridge to the southeast of the storm is visible in steering charts, and that extension has moved westward to about 24N 115E. Therefore, it is now expected that FENGSHEN will move NNW before landfall and will then track NE afterwards along the NW periphery of the ridge.

從駛流圖可見,在風神東南面的高壓脊之西北部延伸昨夜稍向西伸展至 24N 115E 附近 。於這駛流中,風神將於登陸前向西北偏北移動,其後沿該脊西北面向東北偏北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
Although FENGSHEN has consolidated as it shrinks, the strong shear that FENGSHEN encounters is inhibiting its strengthening despite it is situated in warm sea surfaces with plenty of moisture from SW monsoon. It is expected that FENGSHEN will be able to maintain strength before landfall due to the combined effect of these factors, after which it will weaken as it encounters land. It will dissipate inland near t+72.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
風神環流於過去 24 小時變得更集中可是,雖然風神處於溫暖和有充足水氣的地點,但受到強烈垂直風切變影響,風神無法增強。預料風神將在登陸前維持強度,其後由於接近陸地而減弱風神將於 72 小時後在中國東南部消散

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

In the current forecast, FENGSHEN will make landfall within 100 km of Hong Kong. Winds will strengthen from the east then north near t+12 as FENGSHEN is approaching. Onset of rain is expected later today. The Observatory will consider the Strong Wind Signal in the evening. Please refer to official positions and forecast tracks to obtain the latest information.

根據本發佈,風神將於香港 100 公里內登陸隨著風神繼續靠近,東風後轉北風將於 12 小時後增強雨勢將於今天稍後開始增強。天文台將於黃昏至今晚考慮改發三號強風訊號請經常留意官方定位和預測來獲取最新資訊

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/06/24 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Medium 中等
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
Low 低
Medium 中等
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Low 低
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W (FENGSHEN 風神) Bulletin 發佈 #8 (2008/06/23, 22:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS FENGSHEN 強烈熱帶風暴 風神

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #8
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/06/23, 22:30 HKT (14:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/06/23, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 17.9 N, 116.5 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 50 knots 節 (95 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 990 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NW 西北 at 6 knots 節 (12 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Northeastern South China Sea 南海東北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

FENGSHEN moved NW in the past 12 hours, and HKO has downgraded it into a severe tropical storm (the last major official agencies to do so). At 20 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 550 km (290 NM) SSE of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Standby Signal at 07:40 HKT today.

風神於過去 12 小時向西北移動,而天文台也已把它降格為強烈熱帶風暴。在 20 HKT,風神集結在香港之東南偏南約 550 公里 (290 海里)。香港天文台已於今早 7 時 40 分發出一號戒備訊號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

FENGSHEN is in a weak steering environment currently, and from steering charts the ridge N of it has not yet disappeared completely (slight western extension can be seen near 23N 118E). The wind shear is still tearing newly-formed convections to the WSW of the storm, and its internal force (due to Coriolis effect) is deemed a major contribution to its NW track. Under this weak steering force it is expected that FENGSHEN will move NW to NNW in the next 24 hours, after which the extending equatorial anticyclone should be able to provide enough steering to allow a recurvature.

風神現在處於弱駛流環境,而由駛流圖可見風神北部的高壓脊仍未完全退卻 (其西伸部分位於北緯 23 度東經 118 度附近) 。風神所在位置的垂直風切變繼續將新爆發的對流切到中心的西南偏西面。預料在弱駛流環境中,風神將靠本身內力於未來 12 至 24 小時向西北或西北偏北移動,其後隨著赤道反氣旋進一步低緯西伸,風神將可以轉向東北或東北偏北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
The strong shear that FENGSHEN encounters is inhibiting its strengthening despite it is situated in warm sea surfaces with plenty of moisture from SW monsoon. It is expected that FENGSHEN will be able to maintain strength before landfall due to the combined effect of these factors, after which it will weaken as it encounters land. It will begin extratropical transition near t+72.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
雖然風神處於溫暖和有充足水氣的地點,但受到強烈垂直風切變影響,風神無法增強。預料風神將在登陸前維持強度,其後由於接近陸地而減弱風神將於 72 小時後開始溫帶氣旋轉化

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Winds will strengthen from the northeast near t+24 to t+36 as FENGSHEN is approaching. Onset of rain is expected on Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning. Note that these depend greatly on FENGSHEN's point of recurvature, which is far from certain at this moment. Slight changes in the position of this point may result in completely different scenarios. Please refer to official positions and forecasts often to receive latest information.

隨著風神繼續靠近,東北風將於 24 至 36 小時後增強雨勢將於星期二晚至星期三早上開始增強請注意這些預測會隨著風神轉向點的不同而改變;一個比預期東的轉向點跟一個較西的轉向點將對香港造成非常不同的影響請經常留意官方定位和預測來獲取最新資訊

Next Update 下次更新

14 HKT, 2008/06/24 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Medium 中等
High 高
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W (FENGSHEN 風神) Bulletin 發佈 #7 (2008/06/23, 11:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS FENGSHEN 強烈熱帶風暴 風神

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #7
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/06/23, 11:00 HKT (03:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/06/23, 08:00 HKT (00:00 UTC)
Position 位置 17.1 N, 117.7 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 50 knots 節 (95 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 990 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NW 西北 at 10 knots 節 (18 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Northeastern South China Sea 南海東北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

FENGSHEN further lost longitude in the past 12 hours, and has been downgraded into a severe tropical storm. At 08 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 690 km (370 NM) SSE of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Standby Signal at 07:40 HKT today.

風神昨夜向西北至西北偏西移動,並減弱為強烈熱帶風暴。在 08 HKT,風神集結在香港之東南偏南約 690 公里 (370 海里)。香港天文台已於今早 7 時 40 分發出一號戒備訊號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

FENGSHEN's convection continues to be sheared to the west, while the storm's LLCC is moving WNW to NW in the past 12 hours. It is forecast that it will travel NNW under the influence of the ridge east of it, and will turn poleward then NE near t+36 towards Fujian as it moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge.

風神的環流繼續被強烈垂直風切變切離至其西面,而風神本身則於過去 12 小時向西北偏西至西北移動。預料風神將於東面高壓脊帶動下向西北偏北轉北移動,並於 48 小時後沿東環副高之西北面轉向東北移動,趨向福建。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/12 HRS
The strong shear that FENGSHEN encounters is contributing to its weakening. Slight intensification is still possible as it moves through the warm South China Sea but this factor will be quickly outweighed by lower sea surface temperatures and land interactions with Fujian by t+48.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/12 HRS
受到強烈垂直風切變影響,風神昨夜起開始減弱。風神仍有機會在溫暖的南海中增強少許,但 48 小時後風神將受較低水溫和與福建的陸地相互影響而減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Subsidence air associated with FENGSHEN will bring very hot weather and light winds to Hong Kong today. Winds will strengthen from the northeast near t+36 as FENGSHEN is approaching. Onset of rain is expected on Tuesday evening.

與風神相關連的下沉氣流將於今天為香港帶來微風和酷熱的天氣隨著風神繼續靠近,東北風將於 36 小時後增強雨勢將於星期二晚增強

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/06/23 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W (FENGSHEN 風神) Bulletin 發佈 #6 (2008/06/22, 23:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) FENGSHEN 一級颱風 風神

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #6
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/06/22, 23:00 HKT (15:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/06/22, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 16.1 N, 119.3 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 85 knots 節 (160 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 975 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 14 knots 節 (25 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Philippines, Northeastern South China Sea 菲律賓和南海東北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

As FENGSHEN was crossing Luzon, convections formed to the west of the system and has led to a western relocation at 20 HKT. At 20 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 880 km (470 NM) SE of Hong Kong.

在風神橫過呂宋的同時,該系統的西面爆發對流並形成了副中心,而本站在 20 HKT 修訂其定位為北緯 16.1 度,東經 119.3 度附近。在 20 HKT,風神集結在香港之東南約 880 公里 (470 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

Convections were seen to be forming near 117-119E since 16 HKT today and multiple potential centres have formed. It is therefore quite uncertain in the fix for 20 HKT (this bulletin), especially in its latitude. It is expected that the storm may move further west in the next 12 hours as the new centre is forming, and that the latitude will not increase by as much as in a NNW movement because most of the convections form below 16N, and the formation of a new centre may occur below that latitude. On the other hand, it can be seen from steering charts that the ridge N of FENGSHEN has collapsed at the 400-850 hPa layer, and that the storm should be tracked NNW/N after it consolidates. FENGSHEN will recurve near t+48 towards Taiwan as it moves along the northwestern periphery of the steering ridge currently to the east of it.

自 16 HKT 開始對流於風神西面爆發,並形成了幾個可能的中心位置。因此,20 HKT (本發佈) 的定位可能存在著頗大的誤差,尤以其緯度為甚。預料一個新的中心將於現發佈位置的西南面形成並向西北偏北移動,因此在本發佈中 t+0 至 t+12 的整體移動方向為西北偏西。另外,從 400-850 百帕層的駛流圖中可見風神以北的副熱帶高壓脊已經崩潰,所以當風神重新組織好後將會向西北偏北轉北移動。預計風神將於 48 小時後沿東環副高之西北面轉向東北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.0/4.5/S0.0/06 HRS
FENGSHEN has moved offshore and slight intensification is expected through t+48 (great intensification is not expected as the vertical wind shear in South China Sea is forecast to be high), after which lower sea surface temperatures and land interactions with Fujian and/or Taiwan will cause it to weaken after t+60.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.5/S0.0/06 HRS
風神已移離菲律賓大陸由於南海的垂直風切變仍然頗高,預料風神只能作少許增強;60 小時後風神將受較低水溫和與福建及/或台灣的陸地相互影響而減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

It is expected that the subsidence air associated with FENGSHEN will bring very hot weather and light winds to Hong Kong in the next two days. Winds might strengthen from the northeast if FENGSHEN manages to edge even closer (less than 400 kilometres).

預料與風神相關連的下沉氣流將於未來兩天為香港帶來微風和酷熱的天氣如風神能再靠近本港 (400 公里內),東北風將會增強

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2008/06/23 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Medium 中等
High 高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W (FENGSHEN 風神) Bulletin 發佈 #5 (2008/06/22, 16:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) FENGSHEN 一級颱風 風神

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #5
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/06/22, 16:00 HKT (08:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/06/22, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 15.4 N, 120.5 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 85 knots 節 (160 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 975 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NNW 西北偏北 at 8 knots 節 (15 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Philippines 菲律賓

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

FENGSHEN travelled NNW in the past 24 hours and has weakened into a category 1 typhoon. At 14 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 100 km (60 NM) NW of Manila.

風神昨晚向西北偏北移動,並減弱為一級颱風。在 14 HKT,風神集結在馬尼拉之西北約 100 公里 (60 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

As the ridge N of FENGSHEN continues to weaken and the equatorial anticyclone E of the storm intensifies, it will travel NNW/N then NNE as the influence of the ridge to the north breaks down completely after t+36 to t+48.

隨著風神北面的高壓脊逐漸減弱而東面的赤道反氣旋繼續增強,預計風神將向西北偏北/北轉東北偏北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.0/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS
FENGSHEN interacted with the landmass of Luzon and thus has weakened in the past 24 hours. As the vertical wind shear in South China Sea has increased considerably last night (to above 30 knots), great intensification is not expected as FENGSHEN moves back to the ocean. Land interactions with Fujian and/or Taiwan will again hamper its intensification near t+60.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS
風神昨夜經過呂宋島的陸地,強度因而降低由於南海的垂直風切變昨夜大幅增強至 30 節以上,預料風神在進入南海時不能作大幅增強;隨後風神將受福建及/或台灣的陸地影響而減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

It is expected that the subsidence air associated with FENGSHEN will bring very hot weather and light winds to Hong Kong in the next two days.

預料與風神相關連的下沉氣流將於未來兩天為香港帶來微風和酷熱的天氣

Next Update 下次更新

00 HKT, 2008/06/23 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Medium 中等
High 高
High 高
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W (FENGSHEN 風神) Bulletin 發佈 #4 (2008/06/21, 15:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 2) FENGSHEN 二級颱風 風神

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #4
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/06/21, 15:15 HKT (07:15 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/06/21, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 12.3 N, 122.3 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 110 knots 節 (205 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 95 knots 節 (175 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 945 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NW 西北 at 6 knots 節 (12 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Philippines 菲律賓

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

FENGSHEN travelled due west last night, but started a northwesterly track a few hours ago. At 14 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 300 km (160 NM) SSE of Manila.

風神昨晚向西移動,但過去數小時開始轉向西北。在 14 HKT,風神集結在馬尼拉東南偏南約 300 公里 (160 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The ridge N of FENGSHEN has weakened appreciably in the past 24 hours. As it continues to weaken, FENGSHEN will gradually be steered dominantly by the equatorial anticyclone east of it and move N. The current forecast calls for a recurvature less acute than that of the previous bulletin.

在風神北面的高壓脊已開始減弱。預計風神將轉受在其東面的赤道反氣旋影響而向西北偏北轉北移動,趨向福建沿岸。本發報所預期的轉向幅度比上一佈稍作調低。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24 HRS
The southwesterly airstream has supplied moisture to allow FENGSHEN's strengthening in the past 24 hours. FENGSHEN is expected to weaken slightly as it passes through the islands in central/western Philippines. As it enters open water once again, it should intensify slightly, before weakening due to increasing vertical wind shear and lower water heat content near landfall.

現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24 HRS
受惠於西南氣流所帶來的濕潤空氣,風神於過去 24 小時作少許增強預料風神將於經過菲律賓中西部的島嶼時稍為減弱,但會於進入南海時再度增強風神將於登陸前因較高垂直風切變和較低水溫而減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

It is expected that the subsidence air associated with FENGSHEN will bring very hot weather and light winds to Hong Kong in the next two days.

預料與風神相關連的下沉氣流將於未來兩天為香港帶來微風和酷熱的天氣

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2008/06/22 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W (FENGSHEN 風神) Bulletin 發佈 #3 (2008/06/20, 16:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) FENGSHEN 一級颱風 風神

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #3
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/06/20, 16:00 HKT (08:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/06/20, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 11.5 N, 125.4 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 100 knots 節 (185 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 80 knots 節 (150 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 960 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 12 knots 節 (21 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Philippines 菲律賓

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

FENGSHEN accelerated and moved in a WNW direction in the past 24 hours. It has also developed an eye and has made its first landfall at the Philippines near noon today. At 14 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 590 km (320 NM) SE of Manila.

風神昨晚加速向西北偏西移動,並發展出一風眼;另外,風神已於今天中午左右第一次登陸菲律賓。在 14 HKT,風神集結在馬尼拉東南約 590 公里 (320 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The ridge that is expected to weaken in fact did not weaken at the rate as expected. However from steering charts, it is seen that another subtropical ridge east of the ridge N of FENGSHEN has gradually extended westward at a rather low latitude in the past 24 hours. FENGSHEN is moving fast due WNW now and this trend is expected to continue in the next 12 to 24 hours. Afterwards, as the ridge N of FENGSHEN should weaken and the one E of it will continue to extend westward at a low latitude, FENGSHEN will be steered by this new ridge and is expected to go north near t+48. It is worth noticing that FENGSHEN's intensity during its passage across the Philippines will also affect its future track, and thus the uncertainty in the current forecast is quite high.

在風神北面的高壓脊並未有以預期的速度減弱,但在它東面的另一道高壓脊則從低緯度西伸。預料風神快速向西北偏西的移動趨勢將於未來 12 至 24 小時繼續,但由於預料在它北面的高壓脊將於稍後減弱而東面的高壓脊將繼續於低緯度西伸,風神於 24 至 36 小時後將改為受到後者的影響,從而向偏北方向移動。值得留意的是風神橫過菲律賓時的強度變化也會影響它的路徑,因此本預報的誤差可能會較大。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS
FENGSHEN is expected to maintain strength (or even intensify a bit) as it passes through the islands in central Philippines. However, if FENGSHEN recurves earlier than expected, its structure may be severely damaged by the mountainous Luzon.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS
預料風神將於現時的強度橫過菲律賓中部 (或會作少許增強),但如果它比預期早轉向,它的結構將會被呂宋的高山所破壞

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

風神於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2008/06/21 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W (FENGSHEN 風神) Bulletin 發佈 #2 (2008/06/19, 16:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS FENGSHEN 熱帶風暴 風神

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #2
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/06/19, 16:00 HKT (08:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/06/19, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 10.0 N, 130.0 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 994 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 8 knots 節 (15 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Seas E of the Philippines 菲律賓以東海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

07W picked up convection last night and has intensified into a tropical storm, which was named FENGSHEN by the JMA. At 14 HKT, FENGSHEN was centred about 1100 km (600 NM) ESE of Manila.

07W 對流逐漸變得旺盛,並增強為一熱帶風暴及被命名為風神。在 14 HKT,風神集結在馬尼拉東南偏東約 1100 公里 (600 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

FENGSHEN intensified faster than expected and thus it is now being influenced by the steering subtropical ridge to a greater extent. FENGSHEN should maintain its W/WNW movement in the next 24 hours as it is still situated south of that ridge. However a mid-latitude trough will cause the ridge to retreat and a weakness will allow FENGSHEN to turn poleward gradually after t+36.

風神增強速度比預計快,令它現在更為受到北面副熱帶高壓脊的影響而向偏西移動。預料風神將於未來 24 小時維持西至西北偏西的路徑,其後一道西風槽將到達並令副高轉弱,繼而令風神轉向偏北方向移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS
FENGSHEN is expected to intensify at a pace faster than climatological rate as it will travel through a warm environment with little shear and good outflow channels. Its strength will depend greatly on how west it can travel before turning north, as this affects by how much it will be affected by land interactions with the Philippines.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS
風神於未來 72 小時將經過弱垂直風切變的地區輔以頗高的水溫和良好的輻散通道,風神應可以高於氣候平均值的速度增強要注意的是如果風神繼續西進至菲律賓陸地才轉向,它可能會受陸地影響而不能以氣候平均值的速度增強

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

風神於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2008/06/20 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+07W (FENGSHEN 風神) Bulletin 發佈 #1 (2008/06/18, 23:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TD 07W 熱帶低氣壓 07W

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #1
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/06/18, 23:30 HKT (15:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/06/18, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 9.3 N, 132.4 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 25 knots 節 (45 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1006 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 N/A 不適用
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Seas E of the Philippines 菲律賓以東海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

A disturbance east of the Philippines has intensified into a tropical depression today (07W). At 20 HKT, 07W was centred about 1370 km (740 NM) ESE of Manila.

在菲律賓以東的一個熱帶擾動已增強為熱帶低氣壓 (07W)。在 20 HKT,07W 集結在馬尼拉東南偏東約 1370 公里 (740 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

Subject to the subtropical ridge north of the system, 07W should maintain its WNW movement in the next 24 hours. However a mid-latitude trough will cause the ridge to retreat, thereby allowing 07W to turn poleward gradually after t+36.

被以北的副熱帶高壓脊影響,07W 將於未來 24 小時維持西北偏西的路徑。預料一道西風槽將於 24 小時後到達並令副高東退,繼而令 07W 轉向偏北方向移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
07W is expected to intensify at a pace faster than climatological rate as it will travel through a warm environment with little shear.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
07W 於未來 72 小時將經過弱垂直風切變的地區輔以頗高的水溫,07W 應可以高於氣候平均值的速度增強

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

07W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2008/06/19 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

Track Data from HKWW 本站之路徑資料

YYMMDDZZ Lat Long Wind
08061812 093N1324E 030
08061818 099N1316E 035
08061900 098N1308E 045
08061906 100N1300E 045
08061912 100N1291E 055
08061918 107N1276E 065
08062000 111N1265E 070
08062006 115N1254E 080
08062012 120N1241E 080
08062018 116N1234E 090
08062100 118N1227E 110*
08062106 123N1223E 095
08062112 128N1218E 080
08062118 139N1215E 080
08062200 147N1209E 070
08062206 154N1205E 065
08062212 161N1193E 065
08062218 163N1183E 065
08062300 171N1177E 055
08062306 175N1170E 055
08062312 179N1165E 055
08062318 185N1162E 055
08062400 196N1158E 060
08062406 203N1155E 060
08062412 212N1149E 060
08062418 220N1145E 055
08062421 225N1144E 055
08062500 227N1141E 055
08062503 231N1140E 050
08062506 232N1138E 045
08062509 232N1137E 040
08062512 233N1139E 040
08062515 237N1140E 035
08062518 240N1141E 030
08062521 244N1141E 025

*intensity revised
upward from 095 knots
強度由95節調升至110節

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Tue Feb 19 2019 05:00:39 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Tue Dec 24 2013

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