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Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋

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1. 13W (NURI 鸚鵡)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS NURI 強烈熱帶風暴 鸚鵡

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #10C FINAL BULLETIN 最後發佈
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/08/22, 20:45 HKT (12:45 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/08/22, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 22.4 N, 114.0 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 980 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 6 knots 節 (10 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central Guangdong coastal areas 廣東中部沿岸

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

NURI swept past Hong Kong from the SE to the NW in the afternoon and its centre seems to have passed through the Hong Kong Observatory between 17 and 18 HKT. It has also weakened into a severe tropical storm. At 20 HKT, NURI was centred near Tuen Mun, i.e. about 20 km (10 NM) WNW of the Hong Kong Observatory.

鸚鵡於今天下午橫過香港。它在西貢附近登陸,其後西移至天文台附近及大嶼山東部,最後北移至屯門一帶。鸚鵡亦減弱為強烈熱帶風暴。在 20 HKT,鸚鵡集結在香港天文台西北偏西約 20 公里 (10 海里),即在屯門區。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

NURI will maintain the present track before its dissipation near t+36 hours.

預料鸚鵡將於未來 36 小時向西北或西北偏西移動,趨向香港一帶並於 36 小時後在內陸消散。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/06 HRS
NURI is expected to weaken and dissipate in 36 hours.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/06 HRS
鸚鵡將逐步減弱並在 36 小時內消散。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Cyclonic gale force winds (or above) are expected to blow in Hong Kong. Southwesterly winds will dominate later as the storm moves to NW of Hong Kong, occasionally reaching hurricane force on high grounds and in offshore waters at first. Rain will be heavy at times. Winds will gradually subside tomorrow morning..

香港將吹烈風程度或以上的旋風。隨著風暴向西北移動香港將漸吹西南風初時離岸及高地間中吹颶風。雨勢有時頗大。明天開始風勢逐漸減弱但早上仍達強風程度。

Next Update 下次更新

14 HKT, 2008/08/23 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上



Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告 (請按發佈編號顯示內容)

+13W (NURI 鸚鵡) Bulletin 發佈 #9 (2008/08/22, 16:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) NURI 一級颱風 鸚鵡

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #9
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/08/22, 16:00 HKT (08:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/08/22, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 22.1 N, 114.5 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 80 knots 節 (150 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 975 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NW 西北 at 11 knots 節 (20 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central Guangdong coastal areas 廣東中部沿岸

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

NURI continues to edge closer to Hong Kong. At 14 HKT, NURI was centred about 40 km (20 NM) ESE of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Number 9 Increasing Gale or Storm Signal at 13:40 HKT.

鸚鵡繼續接近香港。在 14 HKT,鸚鵡集結在香港東南偏東約 40 公里 (20 海里)。天文台已於 13:40 HKT 發出九號烈風或暴風風力增強訊號

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

NURI will maintain the present track before its dissipation near t+36 hours.

預料鸚鵡將於未來 36 小時向西北或西北偏西移動,趨向香港一帶並於 36 小時後在內陸消散。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/06 HRS
NURI is expected to weaken slightly before landfall and rapidly afterwards.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/06 HRS
鸚鵡將於登陸前稍為減弱,並於登陸後急速減弱在 36 小時內消散。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Cyclonic gale force winds (or above) are expected to blow in Hong Kong. As the storm moves further north, its strong southern rainbands will bring heavy rain and squalls to Hong Kong.

香港將吹烈風程度或以上的旋風。隨著風暴北移它南面緊密的雨雲帶將為本港帶來大雨和狂風。

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/08/22 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Low 低

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+13W (NURI 鸚鵡) Bulletin 發佈 #8 (2008/08/22, 11:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) NURI 一級颱風 鸚鵡

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #8
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/08/22, 11:00 HKT (03:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/08/22, 08:00 HKT (00:00 UTC)
Position 位置 21.4 N, 115.4 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 965 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NW 西北 at 7 knots 節 (13 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central Guangdong coastal areas 廣東中部沿岸

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

NURI turned to the NW in the past 12 hours. At 08 HKT, NURI was centred about 160 km (90 NM) SE of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Number 8 NW Gale or Storm Signal at 07:40 HKT.

鸚鵡於過去 12 小時向西北移動。在 08 HKT,鸚鵡集結在香港東南約 160 公里 (90 海里)。天文台已於 07:40 HKT 發出八號西北烈風或暴風訊號

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The ridge north of NURI is gradually eroding away. It is expected that NURI will maintain the present track before its dissipation near t+48 hours.

在鸚鵡北方 (中國東南部) 的副熱帶高壓脊正逐漸減弱。預料鸚鵡將於未來 24 小時向西北或西北偏西移動,趨向香港一帶。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
As NURI edges closer to land, it is expected to weaken slightly before landfall and rapidly afterwards.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
由於鸚鵡逐漸靠近陸地,預料它將於登陸前稍為減弱,並於登陸後急速減弱在 48 小時內消散。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Northerly winds of gale force or above is expected now; winds will strengthen later today as NURI moves closer to Hong Kong. Exact wind direction depends on where it makes landfall.

香港現時普遍吹偏北烈風。預料風勢將於鸚鵡登陸時進一步加強;確實的風向將取決於鸚鵡登陸的位置。

Next Update 下次更新

16 HKT, 2008/08/22 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Medium 中等
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Low 低

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+13W (NURI 鸚鵡) Bulletin 發佈 #7 (2008/08/21, 22:45 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) NURI 一級颱風 鸚鵡

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #7
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/08/21, 22:45 HKT (14:45 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/08/21, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 20.6 N, 116.5 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 965 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 8 knots 節 (15 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Northern South China Sea 南海北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

NURI maintained a WNW movement in the past 12 hours, and has weakened a bit. At 20 HKT, NURI was centred about 310 km (170 NM) SE of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Strong Wind Signal Number 3 at 20:40 HKT.

鸚鵡於過去 12 小時向西北偏西移動,並稍為減弱。在 20 HKT,鸚鵡集結在香港東南約 310 公里 (170 海里)。天文台已於 20:40 HKT 發出三號強風訊號

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The ridge north of NURI is eroding away. It is expected that NURI will maintain the present track and move WNW towards Guangdong coast in the next 24 hours. It should take a poleward turn after landfall.

在鸚鵡北方 (中國東南部) 的副熱帶高壓脊正逐漸減弱。預料鸚鵡將於未來 24 小時向西北偏西移動,靠近珠江口,並於登陸後開始轉為偏北方向移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/06 HRS
Shear has increased dramatically in the South China Sea. As NURI edges closer to land, it is expected to weaken slightly before landfall and rapidly afterwards.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/06 HRS
南海的垂直風切變昨夜急速增強由於鸚鵡逐漸靠近陸地,預料它將於登陸前稍為減弱,並於登陸後急速減弱在 48 小時內消散。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Onset of strong northerly winds is expected later tonight. Rain will become heavy and gale force winds (or above) are expected tomorrow

鸚鵡將於今晚稍後為香港帶來偏北強風。雨勢和風勢將於明日變得猛烈;明天的風力可達烈風程度 (或更高)。

Next Update 下次更新

16 HKT, 2008/08/22 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Medium 中等
High 高
Low 低
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Low 低
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+13W (NURI 鸚鵡) Bulletin 發佈 #6 (2008/08/21, 16:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) NURI 一級颱風 鸚鵡

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #6
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/08/21, 16:30 HKT (08:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/08/21, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 20.3 N, 117.3 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 100 knots 節 (185 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 80 knots 節 (150 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 955 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 7 knots 節 (13 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Northern South China Sea 南海北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

NURI maintained a WNW movement in the past 12 hours after a NW jog. At 14 HKT, NURI was centred about 390 km (210 NM) SE of Hong Kong. As NURI is approaching, the Observatory will consider the Strong Wind Signal later this afternoon.

鸚鵡經過昨天短暫的西北移動後回復原來西北偏西的路徑。在 14 HKT,鸚鵡集結在香港東南約 390 公里 (210 海里)。由於鸚鵡繼續靠近香港,天文台將於下午稍後考慮發出三號強風訊號

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge in southeastern China has brought the WNW movement in the past 12 hours. A mid-latitude trough previously near Mongolia is travelling to the east and is expected to erode the ridge soon. Therefore NURI's track should gradually turn poleward in the next 48 hours. In the current forecast, a landfall in the vicinity of Hong Kong is expected.

在鸚鵡北方 (中國東南部) 的副熱帶高壓脊為它帶來西北偏西的移動途徑。預料先前在蒙古的西風槽將東移並令副高減弱,從而使鸚鵡向西北偏西轉西北移動。本發佈預料鸚鵡將會趨向珠江口,並於非常接近香港的地方登陸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/S0.0/18 HRS
Shear has increased dramatically in the South China Sea. Warm sea surface temperatures is expected to allow NURI to maintain strength before landfall.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/S0.0/18 HRS
南海的垂直風切變昨夜急速增強預料頗高的水溫應可令鸚鵡維持強度直至接近陸地。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Onset of strong northerly winds is expected later tonight. Rain will become heavy and gale force winds (or above) are expected tomorrow

鸚鵡將於今晚稍後為香港帶來偏北強風。雨勢和風勢將於明日變得猛烈;明天的風力可達烈風程度 (或更高)。

Next Update 下次更新

00 HKT, 2008/08/22 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
High 高
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Medium 中等
High 高
Medium 中等
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Medium 中等
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Low 低

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+13W (NURI 鸚鵡) Bulletin 發佈 #5C (2008/08/20, 23:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) NURI 一級颱風 鸚鵡

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #5C
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/08/20, 23:00 HKT (15:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/08/20, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 19.5 N, 120.5 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 100 knots 節 (185 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 80 knots 節 (150 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 955 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NW 西北 at 8 knots 節 (15 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Luzon Strait 呂宋海峽

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

Intrusion of drier air from the north has stripped off NURI's northern convections. At 20 HKT, NURI was centred about 730 km (390 NM) ESE of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Standby Signal at 18:15 HKT.

鸚鵡北面的乾燥空氣令它北部的對流大幅減少。在 20 HKT,鸚鵡集結在香港東南偏東約 730 公里 (390 海里)。天文台已於 18:15 HKT 發出一號戒備訊號

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge has moved to ENE of NURI while linking with the high pressure cell in southeastern China. The steering forces provided by these ridges partially offset each other which contributes to NURI's decreased speed in the past 12 hours. As the ridges remain strong with no significant weakening factors in the next 24 hours, it is unlikely that the weakness between them is going to deepen soon; instead the combined steering force will be in the WNW direction in the next 24 hours. A mid-latitude trough will erode the ridge in southeastern China in 24 to 36 hours, and thus NURI is expected to move with increasing poleward component near t+36.

原先在鸚鵡北面的副熱帶高壓脊繼續移至它的東北偏東方,而另一脊場則於中國東南部建立。一個脊場帶來的前進動力部分被另一脊場部分抵銷,因而鸚鵡在過去 12 小時減速不少。由於兩高壓脊場仍然強盛且在未來 24 小時並未有令它們明顯減弱的因素,預料鸚鵡會於未來 24 小時繼續向西北偏西移動。一道西風槽將於 24 至 36 小時後經過並令副高東退,這將令鸚鵡向西北至西北偏北移動,趨向中國東南部。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/06 HRS
Proximity to land is hindering NURI's intensification at this moment. Slight intensification is possible as poleward outflow develops while the storm is in South China Sea together with warm sea surface temperatures. Rapid weakening is expected upon landfall near t+48.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/06 HRS
由於接近陸地,鸚鵡在過去 24 小時強度變化不大。預料鸚鵡的極向輻散通道將會於稍後變好;而南海的水溫亦有利增強。48 小時後,鸚鵡將由於移近陸地而開始減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Subsidence associated to NURI is expected to bring very hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong on Thursday. Onset of rain and strong winds is expected on Friday. Its effect to Hong Kong will depend greatly on its place of landfall.

鸚鵡的下沉氣流將於星期四繼續為香港帶來酷熱和有煙霞的天氣,而星期五開始將會有雨和強風。鸚鵡登陸的位置將重要地決定它對香港的影響。

Next Update 下次更新

16 HKT, 2008/08/21 (or earlier, 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Medium 中等
High 高
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Low 低
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+13W (NURI 鸚鵡) Bulletin 發佈 #4 (2008/08/20, 17:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 2) NURI 二級颱風 鸚鵡

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #4
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/08/20, 17:00 HKT (09:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/08/20, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 18.9 N, 121.1 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 115 knots 節 (215 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 95 knots 節 (175 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 85 knots 節 (155 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 952 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 7 knots 節 (12 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Luzon Strait 呂宋海峽

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

NURI skirted northern Luzon and is entering South China Sea. At 14 HKT, NURI was centred about 820 km (440 NM) ESE of Hong Kong.

鸚鵡昨夜掠過呂宋北部,現正進入南海。在 14 HKT,鸚鵡集結在香港東南偏東約 820 公里 (440 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge has moved to ENE of NURI while linking with the high pressure cell in southeastern China. The steering forces provided by these ridges partially offset each other which contributes to NURI's decreased speed in the past 12 hours. As the ridges remain strong with no significant weakening factors in the next 24 hours, it is unlikely that the weakness between them is going to deepen soon; instead the combined steering force will be in the WNW direction in the next 24 hours. A mid-latitude trough will erode the ridge in southeastern China in 24 to 48 hours, and thus NURI is expected to move with increasing poleward component near t+48.

原先在鸚鵡北面的副熱帶高壓脊繼續移至它的東北偏東方,而另一脊場則於中國東南部建立。一個脊場帶來的前進動力部分被另一脊場部分抵銷,因而鸚鵡在過去 12 小時減速不少。由於兩高壓脊場仍然強盛且在未來 24 小時並未有令它們明顯減弱的因素,預料鸚鵡會於未來 24 小時繼續向西北偏西移動。一道西風槽將於 24 至 48 小時後經過並令副高東退,這將令鸚鵡向西北至西北偏北移動,趨向中國東南部。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS
Proximity to land is hindering NURI's intensification at this moment. Slight intensification is possible as poleward outflow develops while the storm is in South China Sea together with warm sea surface temperatures. Rapid weakening is expected upon landfall near t+48.

現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS
由於接近陸地,鸚鵡在過去 24 小時強度變化不大。預料鸚鵡的極向輻散通道將會於稍後變好;而南海的水溫亦有利增強。48 小時後,鸚鵡將由於移近陸地而開始減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Subsidence associated to NURI is expected to bring very hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong today and tomorrow. Onset of rain and strong winds is expected on Friday. Its effect to Hong Kong will depend greatly on its place of landfall.

鸚鵡的下沉氣流將於今明兩日為香港帶來酷熱和有煙霞的天氣,而星期五開始將會有雨和強風。鸚鵡登陸的位置將重要地決定它對香港的影響。

Next Update 下次更新

00 HKT, 2008/08/21 (or earlier, 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Medium 中等
High 高
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Low 低
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+13W (NURI 鸚鵡) Bulletin 發佈 #3 (2008/08/19, 16:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 2) NURI 二級颱風 鸚鵡

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #3
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/08/19, 16:30 HKT (08:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/08/19, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 17.6 N, 125.4 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 110 knots 節 (205 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 80 knots 節 (150 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 952 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 14 knots 節 (27 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Northeastern Philippines 菲律賓東北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

NURI intensifies into a typhoon and is heading towards Luzon Strait. At 14 HKT, NURI was centred about 770 km (420 NM) SE of Gaoxiong.

鸚鵡增強為颱風,並繼續向呂宋海峽推進。在 14 HKT,鸚鵡集結在高雄東南約 770 公里 (420 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge originally north of NURI has shifted eastward, but its western extension is still strong and broad enough to sustain a WNW movement at a high speed (about 25 km/h). It is expected that NURI will move WNW in the next 24 to 36 hours, after which it will track NW to NNW in the SW periphery of the ridge towards southeastern China.

原先在鸚鵡北面的副熱帶高壓脊稍為東移,但其西部延伸仍然強盛和廣闊。預料鸚鵡將於未來 24 至 36 小時沿該脊南至西南面向西北偏西移動;其後副高將東退並令鸚鵡向西北至西北偏北移動,趨向中國東南部。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS
It is expected that high sea surface temperatures and good equatorward outflow will continue to allow NURI to intensify in the next 48 hours; intensification in South China Sea is possible as shear is very low there. It will weaken as it makes landfall near t+60.

現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS
在橫向輻散通道良好及海水溫暖的環境下鸚鵡將可在未來 48 小時稍為增強;南海極低的垂直風切變亦有利增強。60 小時後,鸚鵡將由於移近陸地而開始減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Subsidence associated to NURI is expected to bring very hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong on Wednesday. Onset of rain is expected on Thursday or Friday. Its effect to Hong Kong will depend greatly on its place of landfall.

鸚鵡的下沉氣流將於星期三為香港帶來酷熱和有煙霞的天氣,而星期四或五開始將會有雨。鸚鵡登陸的位置將重要地決定它對香港的影響。

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2008/08/20 (or earlier, 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Medium 中等
High 高
Very High 極高
High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Low 低
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+13W (NURI 鸚鵡) Bulletin 發佈 #2 (2008/08/18, 16:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS NURI 強烈熱帶風暴 鸚鵡

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #2
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/08/18, 16:00 HKT (08:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/08/18, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 16.0 N, 131.7 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 50 knots 節 (95 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 992 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 W 西 at 15 knots 節 (29 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 N/A 不適用

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

13W continues its intensification during the night and was was named NURI by the JMA. It reaches severe tropical storm status in 1-minute standard this afternoon. At 14 HKT, NURI was centred about 1410 km (760 NM) ESE of Gaoxiong.

13W 昨晚和今天繼續增強並被日本氣象廳命名為鸚鵡;它於下午增強為強烈熱帶風暴。在 14 HKT,鸚鵡集結在高雄東南偏東約 1410 公里 (760 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The strong subtropical ridge north of the system continues to propel NURI quickly to the west, and NURI will maintain the current velocity as the shape of the ridge stays almost the same in the next 36 hours. A mid-latitude trough will arrive in 48 to 72 hours to erode the ridge and will allow NURI to take a more northerly track. As NURI continues to move faster than expected, it is now forecast to take the poleward turn after traversing Luzon Strait. As stated in the previous bulletin, the time that this subtropical ridge retreats is a crucial factor in determing the time of recurvature.

在鸚鵡北面的強副熱帶高壓脊繼續帶領它向西快速移動。預料鸚鵡將於未來 36 小時維持速度;一道西風槽將於 48 至 72 小時後到達,並令副高東退,從而令鸚鵡轉向偏北方向移動。由於鸚鵡比預測速率快,本報預期鸚鵡可在橫過呂宋海峽後才出現偏北的路徑。跟上一報所述一樣,西風槽到來的時間和系統的前進速度將會是決定鸚鵡轉向時間的重要因素。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/18 HRS
NURI is expected to travel through warm sea surfaces in the next 72 hours, and equatorward outflow remains very good. It is expected that this system will intensify at near or slightly greater than climatological rate in the next 72 hours before weakening as a result of land interaction.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/18 HRS
鸚鵡將在未來 72 小時於溫暖的海中前進。隨著橫向輻散通道保持良好,預料鸚鵡將可在未來 72 小時於大約或稍快於氣候平均值速度增強。72 小時後,鸚鵡將由於移近陸地而開始減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Subsidence associated to NURI is expected to bring very hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong on Wednesday.

鸚鵡的下沉氣流將於星期三為香港帶來酷熱和有煙霞的天氣。

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2008/08/19 (or earlier, 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+13W (NURI 鸚鵡) Bulletin 發佈 #1 (2008/08/17, 22:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS 13W 熱帶風暴 13W

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #1
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/08/17, 22:15 HKT (14:15 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/08/17, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 16.0 N, 136.9 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1002 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 18 knots 節 (33 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 N/A 不適用

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

Tropical disturbance 92W consolidated quickly and intensified into a tropical depression this morning and further into a tropical storm tonight. At 20 HKT, 13W was centred about 1890 km (1020 NM) ESE of Taipei.

熱帶擾動 92W 迅速整固,並分別於今早及晚上增強為熱帶低氣壓 (13W) 及熱帶風暴。在 20 HKT,13W 集結在台北東南偏東約 1890 公里 (1020 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The strong subtropical ridge north of the system is propelling 13W quickly to the west. As the ridge continues to extend, it is forecast that 13W will move W to WNW in the next 72 hours. Extended forecast calls for a sharp retreat of the ridge as a mid-latitude trough arrives and this retreat will drive 13W northwards to the seas east of Taiwan. In this case, the time that this subtropical ridge retreats is a crucial factor in determing the time of recurvature.

在 13W 北面的強副熱帶高壓脊正帶領它向西快速移動。預料該脊短期內將會西伸,13W 得以在未來 72 小時向西或西北偏西移動。預測一道西風槽將於 72 至 96 小時後到達,並令副高急速東退。13W 將在這時轉向北移動,趨向台灣以東海域。西風槽到來的時間和系統的前進速度將會是決定 13W 轉向時間的重要因素。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
13W is expected to travel through warm sea surfaces in the next 96 to 120 hours, and outflow is also improving. It is expected that this system will intensify at near or slightly greater than climatological rate in the next 96 to 120 hours.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
13W 將在未來 120 小時於溫暖的海中前進。隨著輻散繼續轉好,預料 13W 將可在未來 96 至 120 小時於大約或稍快於氣候平均值速度增強。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

13W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2008/08/18 (or earlier, 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

Track Data from HKWW 本站之路徑資料

YYMMDDZZ Lat Long Wind
08081700 145N1400E 025
08081706 156N1387E 030
08081712 160N1369E 035
08081718 160N1350E 040
08081800 160N1333E 045
08081806 160N1317E 050
08081812 165N1299E 065
08081818 169N1283E 070
08081900 171N1268E 080
08081906 176N1254E 090
08081912 181N1243E 095
08081918 184N1227E 090
08082000 187N1218E 095
08082006 189N1211E 095
08082012 195N1205E 080
08082018 200N1191E 080
08082100 201N1180E 080
08082106 203N1173E 080
08082112 206N1165E 070
08082118 209N1159E 070
08082121 211N1157E 070
08082200 214N1154E 070
08082203 218N1149E 070
08082206 221N1145E 065
08082207 222N1144E 065
08082208 223N1144E 065
08082209 223N1143E 065
08082210 223N1141E 065
08082211 223N1140E 065
08082212 224N1140E 060
08082215 227N1136E 055
08082218 228N1132E 050
08082300 231N1127E 040

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Wed Mar 27 2019 11:33:25 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Tue Dec 24 2013

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