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2. 15W (SINLAKU 森垃克)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS SINLAKU 強烈熱帶風暴 森垃克

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #13 FINAL BULLETIN 最後發佈
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/20, 15:45 HKT (07:45 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/20, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 35.1 N, 144.7 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 50 knots 節 (95 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 995 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 E 東 at 21 knots 節 (40 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 N/A 不適用

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

SINLAKU is about to start extratropical transition. At 14 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 460 km (250 NM) E of Tokyo.

森垃克即將開始溫帶氣旋轉化。在 14 HKT,森垃克集結在東京以東約 460 公里 (250 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

It is expected that SINLAKU will move ENE to E along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge.

預料森垃克將沿副高北面向東或東北偏東移動

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS
Extratropical transition should be complete by t+24.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS
預料森垃克將於 24 小時後完成溫帶氣旋轉化

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

垃克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。

Next Update 下次更新

This is the final bulletin on SINLAKU.

這是本站對垃克的最後一次發佈。

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用



Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告 (請按發佈編號顯示內容)

+15W (SINLAKU 森垃克) Bulletin 發佈 #12 (2008/09/19, 21:45 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS SINLAKU 強烈熱帶風暴 森垃克

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #12
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/19, 21:45 HKT (13:45 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/19, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 33.8 N, 137.9 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 50 knots 節 (95 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 990 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 ENE 東北偏東 at 20 knots 節 (37 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Southern Japan 日本南部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

SINLAKU regained typhoon status briefly earlier today, but weakened back into a severe tropical storm later. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 280 km (150 NM) SW of Tokyo.

森垃克今早曾短暫增強為颱風,但稍後再度減弱為強烈熱帶風暴。在 20 HKT,森垃克集結在東京西南約 280 公里 (150 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

It is expected that SINLAKU will move ENE to E along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge.

預料森垃克將沿副高北面向東或東北偏東移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.0/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS
SINLAKU will weaken gradually in cooler water and in an environment with stronger vertical wind shear. Extratropical transition should be complete by t+36.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS
預料森垃克將於較冷海水和較強垂直風切變環境中逐漸減弱並於 36 小時後完成溫帶氣旋轉化

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

垃克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。

Next Update 下次更新

00 HKT, 2008/09/21 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+15W (SINLAKU 森垃克) Bulletin 發佈 #11 (2008/09/18, 21:45 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS SINLAKU 強烈熱帶風暴 森垃克

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #11
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/18, 21:45 HKT (13:45 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/18, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 30.8 N, 131.4 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 985 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 ENE 東北偏東 at 8 knots 節 (15 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Southern Japan 日本南部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

SINLAKU skirted the seas south of Kagoshima last night and continued to intensify. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 120 km (70 NM) SE of Kagoshima.

森垃克在鹿兒島南方海域掠過,並增強至 60 節。在 20 HKT,森垃克集結在鹿兒島東南約 120 公里 (70 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

It is expected that SINLAKU will move NE to ENE along the northern to north-northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Acceleration is expected as it enters the westerlies.

預料森垃克將沿副高北至西北偏北面向東北或東北偏東移動,當其進入西風帶後移速將會逐漸加快。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
SINLAKU will weaken gradually in cooler water and in an environment with stronger vertical wind shear. Extratropical transition is expected near t+36.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
預料森垃克將於較冷海水和較強垂直風切變環境中逐漸減弱並於 36 小時後開始溫帶氣旋轉化

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

垃克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/09/19 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+15W (SINLAKU 森垃克) Bulletin 發佈 #10 (2008/09/17, 21:45 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS SINLAKU 強烈熱帶風暴 森垃克

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #10
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/17, 21:45 HKT (13:45 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/17, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 28.9 N, 128.1 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 50 knots 節 (95 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 985 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 ENE 東北偏東 at 16 knots 節 (29 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Seas SW of Kyushu 九州西南部海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

SINLAKU turned to NE earlier today and intensified a bit. It can be seen that convections are flaring on SINLAKU's western side. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 380 km (210 NM) SW of Kagoshima.

森垃克今晨轉向東北移動,並稍為增強,系統西面有對流爆發。在 20 HKT,森垃克集結在鹿兒島西南約 380 公里 (210 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

It is expected that SINLAKU will move NE then ENE along the northwestern then northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Acceleration is expected as it enters the westerlies.

預料森垃克將沿副高西北轉北面向東北轉東北偏東移動,當其進入西風帶後移速將會逐漸加快。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
Improved outflow is the major factor contributing to SINLAKU's re-intensification. SINLAKU will maintain strength or slightly strengthen in good outflow conditions in the next 24 hours. It will weaken rapidly afterwards in cooler water and in an environment with stronger vertical wind shear.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
由於輻散再度轉好,森垃克於過去 12 小時重新增強預料森垃克將於進入西風帶前維持強度或於良好輻散中增強少許,隨後將於較冷海水和較強垂直風切變環境中急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

垃克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/09/18 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+15W (SINLAKU 森垃克) Bulletin 發佈 #9 (2008/09/16, 21:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS SINLAKU 熱帶風暴 森垃克

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #9
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/16, 21:30 HKT (13:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/16, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 27.3 N, 124.6 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 990 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 ENE 東北偏東 at 6 knots 節 (11 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 N/A 不適用

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

SINLAKU continues to move ENE while weakening. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 330 km (180 NM) WNW of Okinawa.

森垃克逐漸減弱並繼續向東北偏東移動。在 20 HKT,森垃克集結在沖繩島之西北偏西約 330 公里 (180 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

It is expected that ENE movement will be observed in the next 24 hours, after which it will turn NE towards southern Japan as it approaches the northwestern quadrant of the subtropical ridge currently to the east of SINLAKU. It will resume ENE movement along the northern periphery of the ridge after t+72.

預料森垃克將於未來 24 小時向東北偏東移動,其後將沿副高西北部向東北移動,移近日本南部,72 小時後再沿副高北面向東北偏東移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24 HRS
Intrusion of dry air has caused SINLAKU's weakening in the past 24 hours. SINLAKU will maintain strength or slightly weaken before going into the westerlies in fair conditions. It will weaken rapidly afterwards in cooler water and in an environment with stronger vertical wind shear.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24 HRS
乾空氣的入侵令森垃克於過去 24 小時減弱預料森垃克將於進入西風帶前維持強度或減弱少許,隨後將於較冷海水和較強垂直風切變環境中急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

垃克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/09/17 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+15W (SINLAKU 森垃克) Bulletin 發佈 #8 (2008/09/15, 23:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS SINLAKU 強烈熱帶風暴 森垃克

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #8
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/15, 23:00 HKT (15:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/15, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 26.8 N, 122.4 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 980 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 ENE 東北偏東 at 6 knots 節 (11 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Seas N of Taiwan 台灣北部海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

SINLAKU has recurved and is now heading towards Ryukyu Islands. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 220 km (120 NM) NNE of Taipei.

森垃克今天轉向東北偏東移動,正趨向琉球群島。在 20 HKT,森垃克集結在台北之東北偏北約 220 公里 (120 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The weakness between the ridges enlarged today and SINLAKU is able to escape from the pressure col that it was situated in during the past few days. It is expected that ENE movement will be observed in the next 24 hours, after which it will turn NE towards southern Japan as it approaches the northwestern quadrant of the subtropical ridge currently to the east of SINLAKU. It will resume ENE movement along the northern periphery of the ridge after t+60.

副高的弱點已經擴大,森垃克將能逐漸離開先前所處的鞍場。預料森垃克將於未來 24 小時向東北偏東移動,其後將沿副高西北部向東北移動,移近日本南部,60 小時後再沿副高北面向東北偏東移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS
SINLAKU will maintain strength before going into the westerlies in fair conditions. It will weaken rapidly afterwards in cooler water and stronger vertical wind shear.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS
垃克將於進入西風帶前維持強度,隨後將於較冷海水和較強垂直風切變環境中急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

The effect of SINLAKU's subsidence will diminish in the next two days.

森垃克的下沉氣流對香港之影響將於未來兩天逐漸減弱

Next Update 下次更新

00 HKT, 2008/09/17 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+15W (SINLAKU 森垃克) Bulletin 發佈 #7 (2008/09/14, 23:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) SINLAKU 一級颱風 森垃克

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #7
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/14, 23:15 HKT (15:15 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/14, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 25.7 N, 121.3 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 80 knots 節 (150 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 975 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 N 北 at 4 knots 節 (8 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Northern Taiwan 台灣北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

SINLAKU has made landfall near Ilan at 01:30 HKT today and remained near northern Taiwan for the rest of the day, weakening considerably. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 80 km (40 NM) NNW of Taipei.

森垃克在約 01:30 HKT 於宜蘭登陸,今天在台灣北部徘徊並逐漸減弱。在 20 HKT,森垃克集結在台北之西北偏北約 80 公里 (40 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

Under the guidance of the ridge east of SINLAKU, a short-term north-northwesterly track will be observed, after which both ridges (east and west of SINLAKU) will be eroded by a passing mid-latitude trough to provide room for recurvature. The ridge to the west of the system will keep speeds slow in the next 24 hours.

森垃克東面的副高將令森垃克向西北偏北移動。預計一道西風槽將令東西兩個副高減弱,所做成的空隙將會容許森垃克作出轉向。森垃克西面的副高將會繼續令它於未來 24 小時移動緩慢。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.0/4.5/W1.5/24 HRS
Prolonged exposure to land has resulted in SINLAKU's weakening and its convection has become loose. It is expected that SINLAKU can intensify slightly in water in the next 24 hours, after which shear and sea temperatures will become increasingly unfavorable for SINLAKU's development.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.5/W1.5/24 HRS
由於長時間接近陸地,森垃克於未來 24 小時大幅減弱,對流變得鬆散預料森垃克出海後可在未來 24 小時稍微增強,隨後將於較高垂直風切變的環境和較涼的海水中急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

The effect of SINLAKU's subsidence will diminish in the next two days.

森垃克的下沉氣流對香港之影響將於未來兩天逐漸減弱

Next Update 下次更新

00 HKT, 2008/09/16 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+15W (SINLAKU 森垃克) Bulletin 發佈 #6 (2008/09/13, 23:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 3) SINLAKU 三級颱風 森垃克

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #6
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/13, 23:00 HKT (15:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/13, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 24.4 N, 122.4 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 125 knots 節 (230 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 105 knots 節 (195 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 945 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 Stationary 停留不動
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Eastern Taiwan 台灣東部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

SINLAKU has maintained intensity and is approaching Taiwan. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 120 km (60 NM) SE of Taipei.

森垃克維持強度並逐步靠近台灣。在 20 HKT,森垃克集結在台北東南約 120 公里 (60 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The ridge east of SINLAKU is expected to extend westward to allow a short-term north-northwesterly track, after which both ridges (east and west of SINLAKU) will be eroded by a passing mid-latitude trough to provide room for recurvature. The ridge to the west of the system will keep speeds slow in the next 36 hours.

森垃克東面的副高將令森垃克向西北偏北移動。預計一道西風槽將於 24 至 36 小時後到來,令東西兩個副高減弱,所做成的空隙將會容許森垃克作出轉向。森垃克西面的副高將會繼續令它於未來 36 小時移動緩慢。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/24 HRS
It is expected that proximity to land will cause SINLAKU to weaken gradually in the next 48 hours. It will weaken rapidly after t+48 as it tracks through cooler water into baroclinic zone.

現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/24 HRS
預料森垃克將由於接近陸地而於未來 48 小時稍為減弱48 小時後森垃克將於較涼海水中急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

SINLAKU's subsidence will continue to bring very hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong in the next two days.

森垃克的下沉氣流將會於未來兩天繼續為香港帶來酷熱和有煙霞的天氣

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/09/14 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+15W (SINLAKU 森垃克) Bulletin 發佈 #5C (2008/09/12, 23:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 3) SINLAKU 三級颱風 森垃克

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #5C
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/12, 23:00 HKT (15:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/12, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 23.7 N, 123.6 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 130 knots 節 (240 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 110 knots 節 (205 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 95 knots 節 (175 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 940 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NW 西北 at 5 knots 節 (9 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Eastern Taiwan 台灣東部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

SINLAKU has started a northwesterly track. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 260 km (140 NM) SE of Taipei.

森垃克開始採取偏西北的路徑。在 20 HKT,森垃克集結在台北東南約 260 公里 (140 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The ridge east of SINLAKU is expected to extend westward to allow a short-term northwesterly track, after which it will be eroded by a passing mid-latitude trough to provide room for recurvature. The ridge to the west of the system will keep speeds slow in the next 48 hours.

森垃克東面的副高將繼續西伸並令森垃克向西北移動。預計一道西風槽將於 36 至 48 小時後到來,令該副高東退,所做成的空隙將會容許森垃克作出轉向。森垃克西面的副高將會繼續令它於未來 48 小時移動緩慢。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/24 HRS
SINLAKU failed to intensify after eyewall replacement, which is partly contributed by intrusion of dry air in the northwestern quadrant earlier. It is expected that SINLAKU will maintain strength through t+24, after which proximity to land will cause SINLAKU to weaken. It will weaken rapidly after t+72 as it tracks through cooler water.

現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/24 HRS
由於周邊環境不如先前,森垃克未能於眼牆置換後大幅增強。預料森垃克可於未來 24 小時維持強度,其後 24 小時將由於接近陸地而稍為減弱72 小時後森垃克將於較涼海水中急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

SINLAKU's subsidence will continue to bring very hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong in the next two days.

森垃克的下沉氣流將會於未來兩天繼續為香港帶來酷熱和有煙霞的天氣

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/09/13 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+15W (SINLAKU 森垃克) Bulletin 發佈 #4 (2008/09/11, 22:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 3) SINLAKU 三級颱風 森垃克

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #4
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/11, 22:00 HKT (14:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/11, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 22.0 N, 124.8 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 130 knots 節 (240 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 110 knots 節 (205 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 935 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 N 北 at 5 knots 節 (10 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Seas SE of Taiwan 台灣東南部海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

SINLAKU moved NNE slowly in the past 24 hours but has weakened slightly compared with the 02 and 08 HKT data of 125 knots in strength. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 470 km (260 NM) E of Gaoxiong.

森垃克在過去 24 小時向東北偏北緩慢移動,但相對 02 HKT 和 08 HKT 時 125 節的強度稍為減弱。在 20 HKT,森垃克集結在高雄以東約 470 公里 (260 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

SINLAKU is currently inside a pressure col which accounts for its slow movement. A mid-latitude trough near Japan is moving to the east and is not expected to greatly weaken the eastern ridge. The ridge will instead extend after the passage of this trough to induce WNW movement from t+12 to t+48. It is expected a second trough will develop and weaken the ridges further to allow a larger gap for SINLAKU to pass through and recurve eventually. Another possible scenario is that the second ridge may not develop in time or the westward extension of the eastern ridge is so great that SINLAKU makes landfall at Taiwan instead, and a few models have already started depicting this scenario. Therefore there is a chance that the forecast track will have to be adjusted further westward.

森垃克正處於鞍型場中,這令其於過去 24 小時移動緩慢。預料在日本附近的西風槽將繼續東移,但不能令東面的副高大幅減弱。該副高將於西風槽過後重新西伸,令森垃克於 t+12 至 t+48 期間向西北偏西移動。預計另一道西風槽將於亞洲中部建立並令該兩個副高減弱,所做成的空隙將會容許森垃克作出轉向。一些數值模式預測另一個可能情況:它們預料東面的副高將大幅西伸,逼使森垃克趨向台灣。有鑑於此,本發佈的預測路徑將可能再度需要作出西調。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T5.5/6.0/W0.5/24 HRS
SINLAKU's rapid intensification ceased as it entered an eyewall replacement cycle, and this is partly responsible for its occasional erratic movement in the past 24 hours. As replacement finishes, SINLAKU will intensify again as it is still situated in excellent environment with decent convergence and divergence channels. It is expected that SINLAKU will weaken from t+36 to t+48 as it nears Taiwan.

現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/6.0/W0.5/24 HRS
森垃克進入了眼牆置換週期,因而停止增強,同時也是它間中移動不規則的其中一個原因。預料眼牆置換完成後森垃克可在良好環境下繼續增強36 至 48 小時後森垃克將由於接近台灣而開始減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

SINLAKU's subsidence will continue to bring hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong in the next two to three days.

森垃克的下沉氣流將會於未來兩三天繼續為香港帶來炎熱和有煙霞的天氣

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/09/12 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+15W (SINLAKU 森垃克) Bulletin 發佈 #3 (2008/09/10, 22:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 4) SINLAKU 四級颱風 森垃克

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #3
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/10, 22:00 HKT (14:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/10, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 20.6 N, 124.3 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 135 knots 節 (250 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 115 knots 節 (215 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 95 knots 節 (175 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 930 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NNE 東北偏北 at 4 knots 節 (8 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Seas SE of Taiwan 台灣東南部海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

SINLAKU continued to intensify at greater than climatological rate, now being a category 4 typhoon with a well-defined eye. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 470 km (260 NM) ESE of Gaoxiong.

森垃克繼續快速增強,於今天建立了一個完整的風眼,現在為一股四級颱風。在 20 HKT,森垃克集結在高雄東南偏東約 470 公里 (260 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge has broken into a eastern and a western one. SINLAKU is currently inside a pressure col which accounts for its slow movement. The eastern N-S oriented ridge will be its primary steering force and SINLAKU will go north slowly in the next 72 hours, which a possible westward component as the ridge extends shortly to the west. However the ridge will not be in time to extend before recurvature occurs, and SINLAKU may make landfall at Japan in the extended forecast period.

在森垃克北面的副熱帶高壓脊已一分為二,分別在森垃克的東面和西面。森垃克因而處於鞍型場中,這令其移動緩慢。預料森垃克東面的南北向脊場將帶領森垃克於未來 72 小時向北移動;該脊或在未來稍作西伸,令森垃克的路徑出現向西分量。雖然如此,預計森垃克仍能在 96 小時後脫離鞍型場,轉向東北至東北偏北移動,趨向日本。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS
SINLAKU's rapid intensification was again brought by excellent outflow and extremely low vertical wind shear in its neighbourhood. The trough that weakened the ridge will further enhance SINLAKU's outflow and will lead to continual intensification through t+36 to t+48, with a possibility of becoming a category 5 typhoon. SINLAKU will start weakening since t+48 to t+72 as it encounters reduced heat content.

現時的 T 號碼: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS
微弱的垂直風切變和極好的輻散通道繼續令森垃克快速增強。預料減弱副高的那道西風槽將可加強森垃克的輻散得以在 t+36 至 t+48 前繼續增強或可成為一股五級颱風48 至 72 小時後森垃克將受到較涼海水的影響而開始減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

SINLAKU's subsidence will bring hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong in the next three days.

森垃克的下沉氣流將會於未來三天為香港帶來炎熱和有煙霞的天氣

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/09/11 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+15W (SINLAKU 森垃克) Bulletin 發佈 #2 (2008/09/09, 21:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) SINLAKU 一級颱風 森垃克

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #2
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/09, 21:30 HKT (13:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/09, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 18.6 N, 125.2 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 85 knots 節 (155 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 975 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 N 北 at 6 knots 節 (11 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Seas E of Philippines 菲律賓以東海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

15W was named SINLAKU by the JMA early today. SINLAKU intensified rapidly during the day, becoming a typhoon tonight. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 680 km (370 NM) SE of Gaoxiong.

15W 今天凌晨被日本氣象廳命名為森垃克,並快速增強為一股颱風。在 20 HKT,森垃克集結在高雄東南約 680 公里 (370 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

A trough in central China is propagating to the east. The subtropical ridge anchored to the north of SINLAKU has weakened considerably, while the high pressure to the east seems to be extending westward at below SINLAKU's latitude. SINLAKU will be situated in a pressure col soon and will slow down gradually while moving to the north. The major trough will break down the ridge in China by t+48 and a N-S oriented ridge is expected to build to the east of SINLAKU, allowing a northward movement through t+96.

在中國中部的西風槽正向東移動。森垃克北面的副熱帶高壓脊正逐漸減弱,而東面的高壓似乎在森垃克以南的緯度西伸。森垃克將處於鞍型場中,令其移動緩慢。預料該西風槽將於 48 小時後擊退在中國的副高,而一個南北向的脊場將於森垃克的東面建立,令森垃克於 t+96 小時前向北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24 HRS
SINLAKU's rapid intensification was brought by excellent outflow and extremely low vertical wind shear in its neighbourhood. It is expected as the trough traverses, it will further enhance SINLAKU's outflow and will lead to continual intensification through t+72, with a possibility of becoming a super typhoon. SINLAKU will start weakening since t+72 as it encounters reduced heat content.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24 HRS
微弱的垂直風切變和極好的輻散通道令森垃克快速增強。預料西風槽的到來將可加強森垃克的輻散得以在 t+72 前繼續增強或可成為一超級颱風72 小時後森垃克將受到較涼海水的影響而開始減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

As SINLAKU intensifies, its subsidence may bring hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong two days later.

隨著森垃克增強,它的下沉氣流可能會於兩天後為香港帶來炎熱和有煙霞的天氣

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/09/10 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+15W (SINLAKU 森垃克) Bulletin 發佈 #1 (2008/09/08, 23:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS 15W 熱帶風暴 15W

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #1
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/08, 23:00 HKT (15:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/08, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 16.3 N, 125.8 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1000 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NNW 西北偏北 at 5 knots 節 (8 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Seas E of Philippines 菲律賓以東海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

A disturbance (95W) east of the Philippines developed quickly into a depression earlier today, and intensified into a tropical storm this evening. JTWC has given it a temporary number of 15W. At 20 HKT, 15W was centred about 540 km (290 NM) ENE of Manila.

熱帶擾動 95W 自昨晚開始迅速整固,於今天較早時間發展成為熱帶低氣壓,並在晚間增強為熱帶風暴。聯合颱風警報中心給予臨時編號 15W。在 20 HKT,15W 集結在馬尼拉東北偏東約 540 公里 (290 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

A subtropical ridge is positioned north of 15W currently. However the steering effect is rather weak and it is expected that 15W will move slowly in the next 24 to 48 hours. A mid-latitude trough is forecast to greatly weaken the ridge, and 15W may go northwards towards the weakness in the ridge later on.

一副熱帶高壓脊正在 15W 之北面。可是由於駛流力度不強,預料 15W 將於未來 24 至 48 小時移動緩慢。其後一道西風槽將到達並令副高急劇減弱,從而令 15W 向北移動並通過副高的弱點。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/INT OBS
Ocean heat content is high over the seas east of Taiwan. As the ridge traverses ouflow channels are expected to improve to allow strengthening.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/INT OBS
台灣附近海面熱能量充足西風槽到來後 15W 的輻散有望變得更好令 15W 得以繼續增強

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

As 15W intensifies, it may bring hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong two to three days later.

隨著 15W 增強,它可能會於兩三天後為香港帶來炎熱和有煙霞的天氣

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/09/09 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

Track Data from HKWW 本站之路徑資料

YYMMDDZZ Lat Long Wind
08090806 159N1260E 025
08090812 163N1258E 035
08090818 167N1257E 040
08090900 170N1255E 040
08090906 178N1252E 060
08090912 186N1252E 070
08090918 193N1248E 080
08091000 199N1245E 085
08091006 202N1242E 105
08091012 206N1243E 115
08091018 207N1243E 125
08091100 210N1245E 125
08091106 215N1247E 120
08091112 220N1248E 110
08091118 224N1247E 105
08091200 228N1245E 110
08091206 234N1240E 110
08091212 237N1236E 110
08091218 239N1232E 105
08091300 241N1227E 105
08091306 244N1224E 105
08091312 244N1224E 105
08091318 247N1219E 090
08091400 247N1219E 085
08091406 253N1213E 070
08091412 257N1213E 065
08091418 258N1209E 065
08091500 262N1212E 065
08091506 265N1218E 060
08091512 268N1224E 060
08091518 265N1232E 060
08091600 269N1235E 055
08091606 271N1240E 050
08091612 273N1246E 045
08091618 272N1253E 040
08091700 275N1260E 040
08091706 281N1266E 045
08091712 289N1281E 050
08091718 294N1289E 050
08091800 300N1292E 060
08091806 305N1305E 060
08091812 308N1314E 060
08091818 316N1328E 060
08091900 324N1343E 065
08091906 331N1357E 060
08091912 338N1379E 055
08091918 343N1398E 055
08092000 349N1421E 050
08092006 351N1447E 050

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Sat Aug 17 2019 19:02:31 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Tue Dec 24 2013

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