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Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋

Current TC Map 即時氣旋資訊Current TC information

Tropical Cyclone Report 熱帶氣旋報告 [Our partner site's TC report 按此看友站的氣旋報告]

1. 18W (HAGUPIT 黑格比)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS HAGUPIT 強烈熱帶風暴 黑格比

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #9 FINAL BULLETIN 最後發佈
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/24, 21:15 HKT (13:15 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/24, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 22.1 N, 108.5 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 50 knots 節 (95 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 985 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 9 knots 節 (16 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Guangxi, N Vietnam 廣西和越南北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HAGUPIT has weakened into a severe tropical storm. At 20 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 590 km (320 NM) W of Hong Kong. The HKO cancelled all signals at 12:50 HKT.

黑格比減弱為強烈熱帶風暴。在 20 HKT,黑格比集結在香港以西約 590 公里 (320 海里)。天文台已於 12:50 HKT 取消所有熱帶氣旋警告信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

It is expected that HAGUPIT will move W or WNW while decelerating in the next 24 hours.

預料黑格比會於未來 24 小時向西或西北偏西方向移動,並逐漸減速。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: N/A
HAGUPIT will weaken rapidly and dissipate in 36 hours.

現時的 T 號碼: N/A
黑格比將會急速減弱,並於未來 36 小時內消散

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

黑格比於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。

Next Update 下次更新

This is the final bulletin on HAGUPIT.

這是本站對黑格比的最後一次發佈。

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用



Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告 (請按發佈編號顯示內容)

+18W (HAGUPIT 黑格比) Bulletin 發佈 #8 (2008/09/24, 12:45 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) HAGUPIT 一級颱風 黑格比

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #8
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/24, 12:45 HKT (04:45 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/24, 11:00 HKT (03:00 UTC)
Position 位置 21.6 N, 110.2 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 85 knots 節 (155 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 970 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 14 knots 節 (27 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 W Guangdong and E Guangxi 廣東西部和廣西東部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HAGUPIT intensified briefly into a category 4 typhoon just before landfall. At 11 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 420 km (230 NM) W of Hong Kong. The HKO has cancelled the Number 8 Gale or Storm Signal at 06:30 HKT, replacing it with a Strong Wind Signal.

黑格比登陸前曾短暫增強為四級颱風。在 11 HKT,黑格比集結在香港以西約 420 公里 (230 海里)。天文台已於 06:30 HKT 改發三號強風信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

It is expected that HAGUPIT will move west while decelerating in the next 24 hours.

預料黑格比會於未來 24 小時向偏西方向移動,並逐漸減速。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.5/5.5/W1.5/15 HRS
HAGUPIT will weaken rapidly and dissipate in 36 hours.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/5.5/W1.5/15 HRS
黑格比將會急速減弱,並於未來 36 小時內消散

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Winds are still strong in the territory with occasional gale force winds. Members of the public should stay alert.

本港部分地區仍吹強風,離岸及高地更間中吹烈風,市民應保持警覺。

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/09/24 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+18W (HAGUPIT 黑格比) Bulletin 發佈 #7 (2008/09/23, 22:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 3) HAGUPIT 三級颱風 黑格比

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #7
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/23, 22:00 HKT (14:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/23, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 20.7 N, 114.1 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 125 knots 節 (230 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 110 knots 節 (205 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 95 knots 節 (175 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 935 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 W 西 at 16 knots 節 (30 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Northern South China Sea 南海北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HAGUPIT continued to travel W to WNW in the South China Sea. At 20 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 180 km (100 NM) S of Hong Kong. The HKO has issued the Number 8 Northeast Gale or Storm Signal at 18:00 HKT.

黑格比繼續向西至西北偏西移動。在 20 HKT,黑格比集結在香港以南約 180 公里 (100 海里)。天文台已於 18:00 HKT 發出八號烈風或暴風信號

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

HAGUPIT's steering ridge has moved eastward and the eastern ridge has extended and merged with the western one. It is expected that a WNW motion at slightly decreased speed will be observed in the next 24 hours.

黑格比北面的脊場稍為東移,而東面的脊場則西伸並跟西面脊場合併。預料黑格比會於未來 24 小時向西北偏西移動,趨向廣東西部沿岸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T6.0/6.0/S0.0/06 HRS
Good outflow has been an important factor for HAGUPIT to maintain strength or even strengthen in the past 12 hours. Land interaction should weaken HAGUPIT slightly in the next 12 hours before landfall.

現時的 T 號碼: T6.0/6.0/S0.0/06 HRS
良好輻散令黑格比於過去 12 小時稍為增強受陸地影響預料黑格比將於未來 12 小時稍為減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Northeasterly winds have reached gale force in most parts of the territory, while a couple of stations are registering sustained storm force winds. Winds will continue to be very strong in the early hours on Wednesday and wind direction should turn clockwise from northeast to southeast.

本港大部分地區正吹烈風程度東北風,數站更錄得持續暴風風力。預料風向將於星期三凌晨由東北順時針地轉向東南,風力仍然強勁。

Predicted Time of Closest Approach (CPA) 預測最接近香港時間 [New 新]

According to the forecast track, HAGUPIT will be closest to Hong Kong near 22 HKT to 23 HKT tonight. Wind speed at CPA is estimated to be about 105 knots (195 km/h) in 1-min standard and 90 knots (165 km/h) in 10-min standard.

根據目前預測路徑,預料黑格比將於 2008/09/23 (二) 22 HKT 至 23 HKT 最接近香港,其強度約為一分鐘平均 105 節 (195 公里每小時) 和十分鐘平均 90 節 (165 公里每小時)。

Next Update 下次更新

13 HKT, 2008/09/24 (or earlier 或更早) if Signal 8 is still in force at 06 HKT tomorrow 如八號信號明早 6 時仍然生效;

20 HKT, 2008/09/24 (or earlier 或更早) if Signal 8 is cancelled before 06 HKT tomorrow 如八號信號明早 6 時前除下。

 

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+18W (HAGUPIT 黑格比) Bulletin 發佈 #6 (2008/09/23, 15:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 3) HAGUPIT 三級颱風 黑格比

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #6
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/23, 15:00 HKT (07:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/23, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 20.4 N, 115.8 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 120 knots 節 (220 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 105 knots 節 (195 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 940 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 W 西 at 14 knots 節 (26 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Northern South China Sea 南海北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HAGUPIT continued to travel W to WNW in the South China Sea. At 14 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 270 km (150 NM) SE of Hong Kong. The HKO has issued the Strong Wind Signal at 10:25 HKT, and will consider the need of higher signals between 16 and 20 HKT.

黑格比繼續向西至西北偏西移動。在 14 HKT,黑格比集結在香港東南約 270 公里 (150 海里)。天文台已於 10:25 HKT 發出三號強風信號,並將於下午 4 至 8 時間考慮是否發出更高信號

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

HAGUPIT's steering ridge has moved eastward and the eastern ridge has extended and merged with the western one. It is expected that a WNW motion at slightly decreased speed will be observed in the next 24 hours.

黑格比北面的脊場稍為東移,而東面的脊場則西伸並跟西面脊場合併。預料黑格比會於未來 24 小時向西北偏西移動,趨向廣東西部沿岸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/06 HRS
Shear in the South China Sea has increased. Together with land interaction, HAGUPIT should weaken slightly in the next 24 hours before landfall.

現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/06 HRS
南海的垂直風切變繼續提升加上陸地影響開始變得明顯預料黑格比將於未來 24 小時減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

The weather is gradually deteriorating now with strengthening north to northeasterly winds. Winds will be very strong in the early hours on Wednesday (with a possibility of gale force winds or higher) and wind direction should turn clockwise from northeast to southeast. HAGUPIT is a fast-moving system; precautionary measures should be made as soon as possible.

本港天氣現在逐漸轉壞,北至東北風將明顯增強,而風向將於星期三凌晨由東北順時針地轉向東南,風力有機會達烈風或更高程度。由於黑格比移動速度高,請盡早做好防風措施。

Predicted Time of Closest Approach (CPA) 預測最接近香港時間 [New 新]

According to the forecast track, HAGUPIT will be closest to Hong Kong near 23 HKT 2008/09/23 (Tue) to 05 HKT 2008/09/24 (Wed). Wind speed at CPA is estimated to be about 95 knots (175 km/h) in 1-min standard and 85 knots (155 km/h) in 10-min standard.

根據目前預測路徑,預料黑格比將於 2008/09/23 (二) 23 HKT 至 2008/09/24 (三) 05 HKT 最接近香港,其強度約為一分鐘平均 95 節 (175 公里每小時) 和十分鐘平均 85 節 (155 公里每小時)。

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/09/23 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Very High 極高
Medium 中等
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Low 低
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+18W (HAGUPIT 黑格比) Bulletin 發佈 #5 (2008/09/23, 01:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 3) HAGUPIT 三級颱風 黑格比

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #5
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/23, 01:15 HKT (09/22 17:15 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/23, 23:00 HKT (15:00 UTC)
Position 位置 19.8 N, 120.1 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 115 knots 節 (215 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 100 knots 節 (185 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 940 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 14 knots 節 (26 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Northern South China Sea 南海北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HAGUPIT has entered the South China Sea. At 23 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 680 km (370 NM) ESE of Hong Kong. The HKO has issued the Standby Signal at 18:40 HKT on 09/22.

黑格比已進入南中國海。在 23 HKT,黑格比集結在香港東南偏東約 680 公里 (370 海里)。天文台已於昨日 18:40 HKT 發出一號戒備信號

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The ridges strengthened last night and HAGUPIT is now being steered by the western ridge. It is expected that HAGUPIT will maintain a WNW motion before landfall as it is steered by that ridge north of the system. Forward speed is expected to average 25 km/h in the next 48 hours.

東西兩面副高再度增強,黑格比現在已轉為被西面脊場引導。預料在該脊場帶領下,黑格比會向西北偏西移動,時速約 25 公里,趨向廣東中西部沿岸並於 36 至 48 小時後登陸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/06 HRS
Shear in the South China Sea has increased, but is still moderate. Seas are warm in HAGUPIT's neighbourhood. However due to land interaction, it should maintain strength or slightly weaken in the next 24 hours.

現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/06 HRS
雖然南海垂直風切變略有提升,但仍維持中等水平水溫仍高,但陸地影響開始變得明顯預料黑格比可於未來 24 小時維持強度或稍為減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Hazy weather is expected in the first few hours of Tuesday (today). The weather is expected to deteriorate rapidly in Tuesday evening with strengthening north to northeasterly winds. Winds will be very strong in the early hours on Wednesday (with a possibility of gale force winds or higher) and wind direction should turn clockwise from northeast to southeast. HAGUPIT is a fast-moving system; precautionary measures should be made as soon as possible.

黑格比之下沉氣流將於星期二 (今日) 頭數個小時為香港帶來有煙霞的天氣。本港天氣將於今日傍晚快速轉壞,北至東北風將會明顯增強;而風向將於星期三凌晨由東北順時針地轉向東南,風力有機會達烈風或更高程度。由於黑格比移動速度高,請盡早做好防風措施。

Predicted Time of Closest Approach (CPA) 預測最接近香港時間 [New 新]

According to the forecast track, HAGUPIT will be closest to Hong Kong near 23 HKT 2008/09/23 (Tue) to 05 HKT 2008/09/24 (Wed). Wind speed at CPA is estimated to be about 85 knots (155 km/h) in 1-min standard and 75 knots (140 km/h) in 10-min standard.

根據目前預測路徑,預料黑格比將於 2008/09/23 (二) 23 HKT 至 2008/09/24 (三) 05 HKT 最接近香港,其強度約為一分鐘平均 85 節 (155 公里每小時) 和十分鐘平均 75 節 (140 公里每小時)。

Next Update 下次更新

15 HKT, 2008/09/23 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Medium 中等
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Low 低
High 高
Medium 中等
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Low 低
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+18W (HAGUPIT 黑格比) Bulletin 發佈 #4 (2008/09/22, 19:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 3) HAGUPIT 三級颱風 黑格比

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #4
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/22, 19:00 HKT (11:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/22, 17:00 HKT (09:00 UTC)
Position 位置 19.4 N, 121.5 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 115 knots 節 (215 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 100 knots 節 (185 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 940 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 W 西 at 12 knots 節 (21 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Luzon Strait 呂宋海峽

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HAGUPIT's motion has turned to WNW since early today, intensifying into a category 3 typhoon. At 17 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 830 km (450 NM) ESE of Hong Kong. The HKO has issued the Standby Signal at 18:40 HKT.

黑格比今晨開始轉向西北偏西移動,並增強為三級颱風。在 17 HKT,黑格比集結在香港東南偏東約 830 公里 (450 海里)。天文台已於 18:40 HKT 發出一號戒備信號

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The ridges strengthened last night and HAGUPIT is now being steered by the western ridge. It is expected that HAGUPIT will maintain a WNW motion before landfall as it is steered by that ridge north of the system. Forward speed is expected to average 25 km/h in the next 48 hours.

東西兩面副高再度增強,黑格比現在已轉為被西面脊場引導。預料在該脊場帶領下,黑格比會向西北偏西移動,時速約 25 公里,趨向廣東中西部沿岸並於 48 小時內登陸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS
Improved outflow led to HAGUPIT's intensification in the past 24 hours. Shear in the South China Sea has increased, but is still moderate. Seas are very warm in HAGUPIT's neighbourhood. It is expected that HAGUPIT can intensify further in the next 12 hours. As its northern convections will touch land soon, its development should be hindered from t+12 to t+24. HAGUPIT should be able to maintain its typhoon status before landfall.

現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS
良好的輻散令黑格比於過去 24 小時快速增強雖然南海垂直風切變略有提升,但仍維持中等水平配合高水溫,預料黑格比可於未來 12 小時繼續增強。由於北面對流即將離開水面並捲入內陸的乾空氣,黑格比將於 12 至 24 小時後開始減弱。黑格比應可在登陸前維持颱風強度

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Hazy weather is expected on the first half of Tuesday (tomorrow). The weather is expected to deteriorate rapidly in Tuesday night with strengthening north to northeasterly winds. Winds will be very strong on Wednesday (with a possibility of gale force winds or higher) and wind direction should turn clockwise from northeast to southeast. HAGUPIT is a fast-moving system; precautionary measures should be made as soon as possible.

黑格比之下沉氣流將於星期二上半部為香港帶來有煙霞的天氣。本港天氣將於星期二晚急劇轉壞,北至東北風將會明顯增強;而風向將於星期三由東北順時針地轉向東南,風力有機會達烈風或更高程度。由於黑格比移動速度高,請盡早做好防風措施。

Next Update 下次更新

01 HKT, 2008/09/23 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
High 高
Very High 極高
High 高
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Low 低
High 高
Medium 中等
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Low 低
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Low 低

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+18W (HAGUPIT 黑格比) Bulletin 發佈 #3 (2008/09/21, 22:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) HAGUPIT 一級颱風 黑格比

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #3
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/21, 22:15 HKT (14:15 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/21, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 18.0 N, 125.8 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 85 knots 節 (155 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 970 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NW 西北 at 12 knots 節 (22 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Philippine Sea 菲律賓以東海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HAGUPIT's convection tightens today and intensifies into a typhoon. At 20 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 630 km (340 NM) NE of Manila.

黑格比的對流變得緊密,並於下午增強為颱風。在 20 HKT,黑格比集結在馬尼拉東北約 630 公里 (340 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

A mid-latitude trough propagated east near Korea last night and induced a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Steered by the eastern ridge, HAGUPIT moved NW steadily today. The trough is now moving away from the weakness and the ridges are expected to strengthen and merge gradually in the next 24 hours. The unified ridge should be WNW-ESE oriented and thus HAGUPIT should gradually switch back to a WNW track into the South China Sea. It is expected to make landfall in central coastal Guangdong before t+72.

在韓國附近的西風槽昨晚逐漸向東移並在副高中造成弱點,東面的副高使黑格比於過去 24 小時穩定向西北移動。該西風槽正移離那個弱點,東西兩面副高將於未來 24 小時再度增強和合併,並呈西北偏西 - 東南偏東向。黑格比將逐漸轉回西北偏西之移動方向,趨向廣東中部沿岸並於 72 小時內登陸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
Shear is light and seas are warm in HAGUPIT's neighbourhood. Together with improving outflow, it is expected that HAGUPIT can intensify at climatological rate in the next 24 to 36 hours. Land interaction will hinder its development from t+36. HAGUPIT should be able to maintain its typhoon status before landfall.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
黑格比所在位置水溫高而垂直風切變頗低配合正改善的輻散,預料黑格比可於未來 24 至 36 小時以氣候平均值速度增強。地形影響將於 36 小時後變得明顯,屆時黑格比將開始減弱。黑格比應可在登陸前維持颱風強度

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

As HAGUPIT further intensifies and edges closer to the Luzon Strait, very hot and hazy weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday. Weather is expected to deteriorate rapidly in Tuesday night with strengthening north to northeasterly winds. According to the present forecast track, winds will be very strong on Wednesday (gale force winds or higher) and wind direction should turn clockwise from northeast to southeast.

隨著黑格比增強並移近呂宋海峽,其下沉氣流將於星期一及二為香港帶來酷熱和有煙霞的天氣。按照目前預測途徑,本港天氣將於星期二晚急劇轉壞,北至東北風將會明顯增強;而風向將於星期三由東北順時針地轉向東南,風力有機會達烈風或更高程度。

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/09/22 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Medium 中等
High 高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
High 高
High 高
High 高
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Low 低
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Low 低
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Low 低

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+18W (HAGUPIT 黑格比) Bulletin 發佈 #2 (2008/09/20, 22:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS HAGUPIT 強烈熱帶風暴 黑格比

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #2
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/20, 22:00 HKT (14:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/20, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 14.4 N, 128.9 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 50 knots 節 (95 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 980 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 9 knots 節 (17 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Philippine Sea 菲律賓以東海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HAGUPIT intensified into a severe tropical storm early today. At 20 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 850 km (460 NM) E of Manila.

黑格比今早增強為強烈熱帶風暴。在 20 HKT,黑格比集結在馬尼拉以東約 850 公里 (460 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The strong subtropical ridge north of HAGUPIT is currently steering the system to the WNW. A mid-latitude trough is expected to induce a weakness in the ridge to permit a NW track with decreased forward speed in the following 36 to 48 hours. This trough should not be strong enough to induce a recurvature, and after its passage the ridges will merge to allow a WNW track along its southwestern periphery. HAGUPIT's speed should increase again after t+48.

黑格比北面的強副熱帶高壓脊正令該系統向西北偏西移動。一道西風槽將在副高中造成弱點,黑格比將於未來 36 至 48 小時減速向西北移動。預料該槽強度不大,因而未能令黑格比轉向。西風槽移過後東西兩面副高將再度增強和合併,並呈西北偏西 - 東南偏東向,黑格比將沿它西南部向西北偏西移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
Shear is light and seas are warm in HAGUPIT's neighbourhood. Together with improving outflow, it is expected that HAGUPIT can intensify at climatological rate or slightly faster in the next 48 hours. Land interaction and reduced heat content will hinder its development from t+60.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
黑格比所在位置水溫高而垂直風切變頗低配合正改善的輻散,預料黑格比可於未來 48 小時以氣候平均值或稍快之速度增強。地形影響將於 60 小時後變得明顯,屆時黑格比將開始減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

As HAGUPIT further intensifies and edges closer to the Luzon Strait, very hot and hazy weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday.

隨著黑格比增強並移近呂宋海峽,其下沉氣流將於星期一及二為香港帶來酷熱和有煙霞的天氣。

Next Update 下次更新

00 HKT, 2008/09/22 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+18W (HAGUPIT 黑格比) Bulletin 發佈 #1 (2008/09/19, 23:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS HAGUPIT 熱帶風暴 黑格比

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #1
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/19, 23:00 HKT (15:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/19, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 13.9 N, 132.8 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 50 knots 節 (95 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1000 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 W 西 at 13 knots 節 (24 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 N/A 不適用

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

Tropical disturbance 93W intensified into a tropical depression (18W) early today, and into a tropical storm in the afternoon which was named HAGUPIT by the JMA. At 20 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 1270 km (690 NM) E of Manila.

熱帶擾動 93W 今早增強為熱帶低氣壓 (18W),並於下午增強為熱帶風暴,被日本氣象廳命名為黑格比。在 20 HKT,黑格比集結在馬尼拉以東約 1270 公里 (690 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

A strong subtropical ridge to the north of HAGUPIT is expected to steer the storm westward in the next 24 hours. As the ridge gradually weakens after t+24 a northwesterly track should be observed. The ridge is expected to re-strengthen near t+72 to bring a west-northwesterly track. The potential error of the extended period could be high as significant uncertainties exist as for the strength of the subtropical ridge. Some models are depicting a much weaker ridge that may permit a very poleward track or even recurvature. However these models generally do not initiate the system well and so more weight is put on ECMWF's forecast of a persistent WNW to NW track.

黑格比北面的強副熱帶高壓脊將帶領該系統於未來 24 小時向西移動。隨著副高減弱,黑格比將於 24 小時後開始一個較為偏西北的路徑;其後副高再度增強,黑格比有望向西北偏西移動。可是,由於副高強度尚未能確定,延伸預測期的誤差可能頗高。部分數值預報模式預計副高將大幅減弱並令黑格比向偏北移動甚或轉向,但由於它們大多未能正確將該系統初始化,本發佈將傾向採用歐洲中期預報模式之預測,黑格比得以向西北偏西移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/INT OBS
Shear is light and seas are warm in HAGUPIT's neighbourhood. It is expected that HAGUPIT can intensify at climatological rate in the next 72 hours.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/INT OBS
黑格比所在位置水溫高而垂直風切變頗低於良好環境下,預料黑格比可於未來 72 小時以氣候平均值速度增強

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

黑格比於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。

Next Update 下次更新

00 HKT, 2008/09/21 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

Track Data from HKWW 本站之路徑資料

YYMMDDZZ Lat Long Wind
08091818 160N1375E 025
08091900 150N1358E 030
08091906 141N1341E 035
08091912 139N1328E 040
08091918 134N1315E 050
08092000 136N1308E 055
08092006 141N1298E 055
08092012 144N1289E 055
08092018 155N1283E 055
08092100 165N1273E 060
08092106 171N1266E 065
08092112 180N1258E 070
08092118 187N1247E 075
08092200 190N1234E 085
08092206 193N1221E 095
08092209 194N1215E 100
08092212 196N1208E 100
08092215 198N1201E 100
08092218 200N1191E 105
08092221 201N1182E 105
08092300 202N1173E 105
08092303 202N1165E 105
08092306 204N1158E 105
08092309 205N1146E 105
08092312 207N1141E 110
08092315 208N1134E 110
08092318 210N1127E 115
08092321 213N1117E 115
08092400 215N1109E 100
08092403 216N1102E 075
08092406 218N1094E 065
08092409 219N1089E 060
08092412 221N1085E 055

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Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Tue Dec 24 2013

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