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Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋

Current TC Map 即時氣旋資訊Current TC information

Tropical Cyclone Report 熱帶氣旋報告 [Our partner site's TC report 按此看友站的氣旋報告]

1. 21W (HIGOS 海高斯)

Name of System 系統名稱 TD HIGOS 熱帶低氣壓 海高斯

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #10 FINAL BULLETIN 最後發佈
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/10/06, 00:45 HKT (10/05 16:45 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/10/05, 23:00 HKT (15:00 UTC)
Position 位置 23.0 N, 113.7 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 25 knots 節 (45 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 20 knots 節 (35 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1000 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NNE 東北偏北 at 10 knots 節 (18 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central Guangdong coast 廣東中部沿岸

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HIGOS turned NE near Macau after skirting the Guangdong coast earlier yesterday (10/05). At 23 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 90 km (50 NM) NNW of Hong Kong.

海高斯於澳門附近轉向東北移動。在 23 HKT,海高斯集結在香港西北偏北約 90 公里 (50 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

HIGOS will continue to move NE along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.

海高斯將沿副高西北部向東北或東北偏東移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: N/A
HIGOS is expected to dissipate as it goes further inland.

現時的 T 號碼: 不適用
預料海高斯將於內陸消散

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Winds and rain subsided as HIGOS's rain bands are now east of Hong Kong. As HIGOS's intensity decreases, prevailing wind direction will turn from southwest to northeast and HIGOS's effect will fade away.

隨著海高斯的雨帶移離香港,本港的風力和雨勢逐漸減弱。風向將由西南轉回東北。

Next Update 下次更新

This is the final bulletin on HIGOS.

這是本站對海高斯的最後一次發佈。

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用



Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告 (請按發佈編號顯示內容)

+21W (HIGOS 海高斯) Bulletin 發佈 #9 (2008/10/05, 18:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TD HIGOS 熱帶低氣壓 海高斯

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #9 REISSUED 重新發佈
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/10/05, 18:30 HKT (10:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/10/05, 17:00 HKT (09:00 UTC)
Position 位置 22.1 N, 113.3 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 25 knots 節 (45 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 998 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 E 東 at 11 knots 節 (21 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central Guangdong coast 廣東中部沿岸

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HIGOS turned eastward after landfall last night, and from RADAR/satallite images its rain/cloud bands consolidated early today. As it is coming close to Hong Kong bulletins are issued again for this system. At 17 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 90 km (50 NM) WSW of Hong Kong.

海高斯於吳川登陸後並未有於陸地消散,而改向偏東移動,擦過華南沿岸。從雷達和衛星影像可見海高斯的雲雨帶於今天變得較為緊密。由於海高斯正逐漸接近本港,本站決定再度作出發佈。在 17 HKT,海高斯集結在香港西南偏西約 90 公里 (50 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

HIGOS will continue to move NE to ENE along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.

海高斯將沿副高西北部向東北或東北偏東移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: N/A
HIGOS is expected to maintain strength until it eventually hits inland and weakens.

現時的 T 號碼: 不適用
預料海高斯將維持強度直至深入內陸

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Winds equivalent to that during the issuance of the Number 3 Strong Wind Signal is currently observed in Hong Kong. It is expected strong winds from the south or southwest will blow in Hong Kong, with a chance of observing cyclonic winds if HIGOS hits Hong Kong. Occasional heavy rain is possible from HIGOS's rainbands. Winds should subside after passage of HIGOS later tonight.

現時香港南部普遍吹強風,等同於三號強風信號發出時之風速。預料香港於未來數小時將會吹強南至西南風,如海高斯稍後於香港上空掠過則更有可能吹旋風。雨勢有時頗大。風勢將於海高斯今晚經過後逐漸減弱。

Next Update 下次更新

01 HKT, 2008/10/06 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+21W (HIGOS 海高斯) Bulletin 發佈 #8 (2008/10/04, 23:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TD HIGOS 熱帶低氣壓 海高斯

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #8 FINAL BULLETIN 最後發佈
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/10/04, 23:30 HKT (15:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/10/04, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 21.5 N, 110.9 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 25 knots 節 (45 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1000 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 N 北 at 3 knots 節 (6 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Western Guangdong 廣東西部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HIGOS made its second landfall near Wuchuan in western Guangdong at 17 HKT today. At 20 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 350 km (190 NM) WSW of Hong Kong.

海高斯於下午五時許在吳川市再度登陸。在 20 HKT,海高斯集結在香港西南偏西約 350 公里 (190 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

HIGOS will turn to NE as it moves along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.

海高斯將沿副高西北部轉向東北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: N/A
HIGOS will weaken rapidly as it moves inland, and dissipation is expected before t+24.

現時的 T 號碼: 不適用
海高斯將急速減弱,並在 24 小時內消散

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Moderate to fresh south to southeasterly winds will be observed in the next two days, together with occasional heavy rain.

預料未來兩天香港將受和緩至清勁南至東南風影響,間中會有大雨

Next Update 下次更新

This is the final bulletin on HIGOS.

這是本站對海高斯的最後一次發佈。

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+21W (HIGOS 海高斯) Bulletin 發佈 #7 (2008/10/04, 16:45 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TD HIGOS 熱帶低氣壓 海高斯

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #7
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/10/04, 16:45 HKT (08:45 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/10/04, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 21.2 N, 110.9 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 25 knots 節 (45 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1000 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 N 北 at 10 knots 節 (19 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Western Guangdong 廣東西部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HIGOS made its first landfall at eastern Hainan last night and will soon make landfall again at western Guangdong. It has also weakened into a tropical depression. At 14 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 360 km (190 NM) WSW of Hong Kong.

海高斯昨夜於海南東部登陸,現繼續向北移動並即將在廣東西佈作第二次登陸。海高斯亦已減弱為熱帶低氣壓。在 14 HKT,海高斯集結在香港西南偏西約 360 公里 (190 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

HIGOS will turn to NE after landfall as it moves along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.

海高斯將於登陸後沿副高西北部轉向東北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T1.5./2.0/W1.0/18 HRS
HIGOS will weaken rapidly as it moves inland, and dissipation is expected before t+36.

現時的 T 號碼: T1.5./2.0/W1.0/18 HRS
海高斯將於登陸急速減弱,並在 36 小時內消散

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Fresh southeasterly winds will be observed in the next two days, together with occasional heavy rain.

預料未來兩天香港將受清勁東南風影響,間中會有大雨

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2008/10/05 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+21W (HIGOS 海高斯) Bulletin 發佈 #6 (2008/10/03, 21:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS HIGOS 熱帶風暴 海高斯

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #6
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/10/03, 21:15 HKT (12:15 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/10/03, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 19.0 N, 111.0 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1000 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 N 北 at 6 knots 節 (11 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Hainan Island 海南島

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HIGOS has gradually slowed down and is now travelling north along eastern Hainan. At 20 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 490 km (270 NM) SW of Hong Kong.

海高斯速度減慢,現正於海南島東部向北移。在 20 HKT,海高斯集結在香港西南約 490 公里 (270 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

A pressure col is developed as the trough erodes the ridge north of HIGOS. It is expected that HIGOS will move north towards eastern Hainan and western Guangdong before recurving northeast inland.

在海高斯北面的高壓脊中已經出現一個弱點,預料海高斯將沿該弱點北上登陸海南島或在海南島東部擦過,隨後登陸廣東西部並於登陸後轉向東北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS
HIGOS still failed to intensify in good ambient environment. It is expected that HIGOS will gradually weaken as it makes landfall at Hainan and weaken rapidly after landfall.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS
雖然週邊環境頗好,但海高斯仍未能增強。隨著海高斯接近海南島,預料它將於未來 24 小時稍為減弱,並於登陸急速減弱和消散

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

HIGOS's threat is reduced as it travels more west than expected. However, fresh (strong in offshore waters and on high grounds) southeasterly winds turning clockwise to southwesterlies should still be observed in the next three days together with occasional heavy rain. The wind speed observed in Hong Kong depends critically on whether HIGOS will make landfall at Hainan and the time of recurving to the northeast.

由於海高斯的路徑比預期偏西,它對香港的影響將減低。預料未來三天香港將受清勁東南轉西南風影響,離岸和高地間中吹強風;間中有大雨。海高斯對香港的影響很大程度上取決於它有否登陸海南島和它轉向東北移動的時間。

Predicted Time of Closest Approach (CPA) 預測最接近香港時間

According to the forecast track, HIGOS will have weakened into an area of low pressure before its CPA to Hong Kong on Monday.

根據目前預測路徑,預料海高斯將於星期一最接近香港前減弱為低壓區。

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2008/10/04 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Low 低
Medium 中等
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+21W (HIGOS 海高斯) Bulletin 發佈 #5 (2008/10/03, 17:45 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS HIGOS 熱帶風暴 海高斯

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #5
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/10/03, 17:45 HKT (09:45 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/10/03, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 18.4 N, 111.0 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 50 knots 節 (95 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 998 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NW 西北 at 14 knots 節 (26 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Hainan Island 海南島

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HIGOS's speed remained rather high and is now edging closer to Hainan Island. At 14 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 550 km (300 NM) SW of Hong Kong.

海高斯的移動速度仍然偏高,現正逐漸接近海南島。在 14 HKT,海高斯集結在香港西南約 550 公里 (300 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

A pressure col is developed as the trough erodes the ridge north of HIGOS. It is expected that HIGOS will move north towards Hainan and western Guangdong before recurving northeast inland.

在海高斯北面的高壓脊中已經出現一個弱點,預料海高斯將沿該弱點北上登陸海南島和廣東西部,並於登陸後轉向東北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS
HIGOS still failed to intensify in good ambient environment. It is expected that HIGOS will gradually weaken as it makes landfall at Hainan and weaken rapidly after landfall.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS
雖然週邊環境頗好,但海高斯仍未能增強。隨著海高斯接近海南島,預料它將於未來 24 小時稍為減弱,並於登陸急速減弱和消散

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

HIGOS's threat is greatly reduced as it travels more west than expected. However, fresh (strong in offshore waters and on high grounds) southeasterly winds turning clockwise to southwesterlies should still be observed in the next three days together with occasional heavy rain.

由於海高斯的路徑比預期偏西,它對香港的影響將大大減低。可是,預料未來三天香港仍將受清勁東南轉西南風影響,離岸和高地間中吹強風;間中有大雨

Predicted Time of Closest Approach (CPA) 預測最接近香港時間

According to the forecast track, HIGOS will have weakened into an area of low pressure before its CPA to Hong Kong on Monday.

根據目前預測路徑,預料海高斯將於星期一最接近香港前減弱為低壓區。

Next Update 下次更新

00 HKT, 2008/10/04 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Medium 中等
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+21W (HIGOS 海高斯) Bulletin 發佈 #4 (2008/10/02, 22:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS HIGOS 熱帶風暴 海高斯

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #4
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/10/02, 22:15 HKT (14:15 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/10/02, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 16.2 N, 114.5 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 998 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 W 西 at 18 knots 節 (32 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central South China Sea 南海中部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HIGOS travelled west into the South China Sea early today. At 20 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 680 km (370 NM) S of Hong Kong. The Number 1 Standby Signal was issued at 19:30 HKT today.

海高斯向西移動,今天凌晨時分進入南海。在 20 HKT,海高斯集結在香港以南約 680 公里 (370 海里)。天文台已於晚上 7:30 發出一號戒備信號

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge north of HIGOS is about to be weakened by a passing mid-latitude trough. This should induce a weakness for HIGOS to complete its recurvature and its forward speed should decrease soon. After recurvature HIGOS is expected to land somewhere in Guangdong and will re-accelerate as it escapes from the pressure col.

西風槽即將於海高斯北面的高壓脊中做成弱點,致使海高斯沿該弱點北上。當海高斯移至該弱點,它的前進速度將會減低。海高斯於轉向後將趨向廣東,並於離開鞍場後逐漸加速。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS
Convections bursted around the storm which has led to its increasing coverage in terms of cloud bands but HIGOS still failed to effectively wrap the clouds around its centre. Shear in the South China Sea continues to stay at low levels and sea temperatures are quite favorable for storm development. Together with better divergence associated with the arriving trough, HIGOS should be able to intensify in the next 48 hours. Intrusion of dry air should have a negative impact on HIGO's intensity as it nears the Guangdong coast.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS
海高斯附近對流爆發,但由於雲帶未被成功捲入,海高斯強度仍然偏弱。南海的垂直風切變輕微,而水溫適合熱帶氣旋發展。隨著西風槽東移,槽前的輻散有望轉好,預計海高斯能於未來 48 小時逐漸增強乾空氣的入侵將令海高斯於登陸前稍為減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

From the current forecast track, HIGOS is expected to bring strong winds to Hong Kong during the weekend. However, as landfalling positions are much more difficult to predict in recurvature scenarios, it is not yet possible to tell the exact change in wind direction during the approach of HIGOS. Please refer to official bulletins for the latest forecast tracks.

按照目前預測途徑,海高斯將於本週末為香港帶來狂風。但由於在轉向情況下登陸點難以測定,暫時還未能確定風向轉變方向。請留意官方預測以獲取海高斯的最新動態。

Predicted Time of Closest Approach (CPA) 預測最接近香港時間

As forecast speeds are lowered due to the increased possibility for HIGOS to position in a pressure col, time for CPA has delayed by almost a day. According to the forecast track, HIGOS will be closest to Hong Kong in the night time on 2008/10/05 (Sun). Wind speed at CPA is estimated to be about 55 knots (100 km/h) in 1-min standard and 50 knots (95 km/h) in 10-min standard.

由於海高斯將處於氣壓鞍且登陸前所經路程較長,所預測的最接近時間往後推遲了一天。根據目前預測路徑,預料海高斯將於 2008/10/05 (日) 晚間最接近香港,其強度約為一分鐘平均 55 節 (100 公里每小時) 和十分鐘平均 50 節 (95 公里每小時)。

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2008/10/03 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Medium 中等
High 高
Very High 極高
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Low 低
Medium 中等
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Low 低
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+21W (HIGOS 海高斯) Bulletin 發佈 #3 (2008/10/01, 22:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS HIGOS 熱帶風暴 海高斯

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #3
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/10/01, 22:15 HKT (14:15 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/10/01, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 14.5 N, 120.8 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1002 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 12 knots 節 (23 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central Philippines 菲律賓中部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

HIGOS has weakened to a marginal tropical storm due to land interaction. At 20 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 30 km (20 NM) WSW of Manila.

受到地形影響,海高斯減弱至熱帶風暴下限強度。在 20 HKT,海高斯集結在馬尼拉西南偏西約 30 公里 (20 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge north of HIGOS is expected to bring WNW movement in the next 24 to 36 hours. A mid-latitude trough should arrive at that time to weaken the ridge so that a recurvature scenario could be observed with the storm making landfall in Guangdong.

在海高斯北面的高壓脊將於未來 24 至 36 小時帶領系統向西北偏西移動。一道西風槽將會於較後時間到達並令副高減弱,從而令海高斯轉向,移近廣東。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS
HIGOS is expected to enter the South China Sea soon. As wind shear has decreased significantly and sea surface temperatures remain good, HIGOS should be able to intensify at climatological rate from t+12 to t+60. Improved outflow may be possible as the trough arrives.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS
海高斯即將進入南海。該處的垂直風切變大幅減弱,而水溫適合熱帶氣旋發展,因而預計海高斯能於 t+12 至 t+60 以氣候平均值速度增強。隨著西風槽東移,槽前的輻散有望轉好,協助海高斯增強

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

From the current forecast track, HIGOS is expected to bring strong winds to Hong Kong during the weekend. However, as landfalling positions are much more difficult to predict in recurvature scenarios, it is not yet possible to tell the exact change in wind direction during the approach of HIGOS. Please refer to official bulletins for the latest forecast tracks.

按照目前預測途徑,海高斯將於本週末為香港帶來狂風。但由於在轉向情況下登陸點難以測定,暫時還未能確定風向轉變方向。請留意官方預測以獲取海高斯的最新動態。

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/10/02 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Medium 中等
High 高
High 高
High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Low 低
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+21W (HIGOS 海高斯) Bulletin 發佈 #2 (2008/09/30, 22:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS HIGOS 熱帶風暴 海高斯

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #2
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/30, 22:15 HKT (14:15 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/30, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 13.1 N, 123.7 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 50 knots 節 (95 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1000 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 25 knots 節 (46 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central Philippines 菲律賓中部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

21W was named HIGOS by the JMA today and has made landfall at the Philippines. At 20 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 340 km (180 NM) ESE of Manila.

21W 被日本氣象廳命名為海高斯,並於下午登陸菲律賓。在 20 HKT,海高斯集結在馬尼拉東南偏東約 340 公里 (180 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge north of HIGOS is expected to bring WNW movement in the next 48 hours. A mid-latitude trough should arrive at that time to weaken the ridge so that a recurvature scenario could be observed with the storm making landfall in Guangdong.

在海高斯北面的高壓脊將於未來 48 小時帶領系統向西北偏西移動。一道西風槽將會於較後時間到達並令副高減弱,從而令海高斯轉向,移近廣東。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS
Potential for intensification remains rather limited in the next 36 hours as HIGOS moves across the Philippines. According to the present track, 21W will move into the South China Sea in 36 hours' time, and it may intensify further as it reaches open waters.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS
受菲律賓地形影響, t+36 前海高斯將不能大幅增強預料海高斯將於 36 小時後移進南海,增強幅度有望變得較為明顯

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours. However, as HIGOS is expected to edge closer to Guangdong, there is a chance that the weather will deteriorate later this week.

海高斯於未來的72小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。但由於預料海高斯將於週末靠近廣東,屆時香港的天氣可能會轉壞。

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/10/01 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+21W (HIGOS 海高斯) Bulletin 發佈 #1 (2008/09/29, 22:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS 21W 熱帶風暴 21W

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #1
Time of Report 報告時間 2008/09/29, 22:15 HKT (14:15 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2008/09/29, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 8.9 N, 129.6 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1000 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 W 西 at 17 knots 節 (32 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Southeastern Philippines 菲律賓東南部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

Disturbance 99W intensified into a tropical depression (21W) this afternoon and was soon upgraded to tropical storm status. At 20 HKT, 21W was centred about 1130 km (610 NM) SE of Manila.

熱帶擾動 99W 今午增強為熱帶低氣壓 (21W),並於晚上增強為熱帶風暴。在 20 HKT,21W 集結在馬尼拉東南約 1130 公里 (610 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

A subtropical ridge is anchored north of 21W. It is expected that 21W will travel W then gradually turning poleward in the next 72 hours as it moves along the southwestern periphery of the ridge. The motion is highly dependant on the extent that the ridge extends westwards after JANGMI moves further northeastward.

一個高壓脊正在 21W 北面。預料 21W 將於未來 24 小時向西移動;當其接近該脊西南部時,它將轉向西北至西北偏北移動。21W 的移動路徑將非常受副高在薔薇向東北移後西伸的幅度所影響。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
Potential for intensification remains rather limited in the next 72 hours as 21W moves to the Philippines. According to the present track, 21W will move into the South China Sea in 72 hours' time, and it may intensify further as it leaves Philippines.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
由於 21W 將登陸菲律賓,在 t+72 前該系統將受地形影響而不能大幅增強預料 21W 將於 72 小時後移進南海,增強幅度有望變得較為明顯

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

21W 於未來的72小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。

Next Update 下次更新

23 HKT, 2008/09/30 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

Track Data from HKWW 本站之路徑資料

YYMMDDZZ Lat Long Wind
08092906 092N1313E 025
08092912 089N1296E 035
08092918 099N1277E 040
08093000 110N1268E 045
08093006 120N1260E 045
08093012 131N1237E 040
08093018 135N1233E 035
08100100 139N1230E 035
08100106 141N1220E 035
08100112 145N1208E 035
08100118 147N1190E 035
08100200 150N1178E 035
08100206 160N1163E 035
08100212 162N1145E 035
08100218 164N1134E 035
08100300 174N1120E 035
08100306 184N1110E 035
08100312 190N1110E 035
08100318 199N1110E 030
08100400 202N1109E 030
08100406 212N1109E 030
08100412 215N1109E 030
08100418 216N1110E 025
08100500 218N1119E 025
08100506 219N1124E 025
08100509 221N1133E 030
08100512 228N1137E 030
08100515 230N1137E 025

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Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Tue Dec 24 2013

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