LINFA is about to make landfall near Xiamen. At 14 HKT, LINFA was centred about 70 km (40 NM) SE of Xiamen. The Observatory has lifted all signals at 05:45 HKT.
LINFA will continue to travel NNE then NE along the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge.
預料蓮花將沿副熱帶高壓脊的西北面向東北偏北轉東北移動。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/18 HRS
LINFA has weakened significantly due to proximity to land. It is expected that LINFA will continue to weaken as it travels along the Chinese coast, and will transform into an extratropical cyclone after 48 hours.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/18 HRS 由於接近陸地，蓮花開始減弱。預料蓮花將於中國東南沿岸繼續減弱，並於 48 小時後轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
蓮花於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/06/22 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
LINFA will continue to travel NNE towards Taiwan Strait under the influence of the southwesterly airstream in the South China Sea. A gradual turn to the northeast is expected as LINFA travels along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06 HRS
LINFA's eye was briefly discernible in IR imagery, but it seems that LINFA is struggling to maintain its eyewall structure. LINFA will weaken as it nears land and extratropical transition is likely beyond t+48.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06 HRS 蓮花的風眼短暫出現於紅外線衛星影像中。由於接近陸地的關係，預料蓮花將開始減弱，並於 48 小時後開始溫帶氣旋轉化。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Influenced by west to northwesterly winds, expect hot weather for Hong Kong tomorrow (June 21). Isolated thunderstorms and showers may also develop. Water sports should be suspended as swells may be present. Please stay vigilant although the system is moving away from us.
LINFA has decelerated since midnight and has further intensified into a typhoon. At 14 HKT, LINFA was centred about 380 km (210 NM) ESE of Hong Kong. The Observatory issued the #1 Standby Signal at 10:40 HKT today.
The weak ridge over Taiwan persists which, amidst southwesterly airstream in the South China Sea, enabled LINFA to travel north. It is expected that this northward movement will continue until LINFA makes landfall in southeastern China, after which it will turn to a more northeasterly direction in the northwestern quadrant of the subtropical ridge.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS
An eye has developed but not yet visible in the IR imageries. Wind shear north of the system has increased to prohibitive levels that will sufficiently hinder storm development. Supported by moisture from the southwesterly airstream, LINFA may be able to intensify slightly before landfall, after which shear and Chinese landmasses will serve to weaken the storm.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS 蓮花建立了一個風眼，但未能在紅外線衛星影像中看到。蓮花北面的垂直風切變已增強至非常高的水平，足以令熱帶氣旋減弱。受惠於西南氣流所帶來的水氣，預料蓮花仍可在登陸前稍微增強，隨後即受陸地和風切影響而減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Influenced by northwesterly winds, expect hot and hazy weather for Hong Kong for the rest of today and tomorrow. Isolated thunderstorms and showers may develop later today and the day after. Water sports should be suspended as swells may be present.
LINFA drifted east in the past 24 hours and has now turned poleward. It has also intensified into a severe tropical storm. At 14 HKT, LINFA was centred about 560 km (300 NM) SE of Hong Kong.
A weak ridge has developed near Taiwan. A mid-latitude trough is expected to weaken it and allow a poleward movement, possibly followed by NE movement near landfall. Confidence in movement direction beyond t+48 is not high as the strength of the trough and its interaction with the ridge remain uncertain.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS
Wind shear in the region has increased, while sea surface temperatures remain high. LINFA should be able to intensify further to the upper bound of severe tropical storm level during its northward journey, and will be weakened by heightened shear and proximity to land after t+48.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS 該區的垂直風切變稍微增強，但海水溫度仍佳，預料蓮花將能在其北移時間增強至強烈熱帶風暴強度上限，48 小時後由於風切漸強和陸地影響而減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
According to the present forecast track, LINFA's outermost rainbands may have the chance to reach Hong Kong two days later. However uncertainties exist and effect may change as the forecast track changes.
Due to competing steering directions, LINFA remained quasi-stationary in the past 24 hours. The western extension of the subtropical ridge north of LINFA has weakened. A mid-latitude trough is expected to move east and will possibly weaken the ridge. However the strength of the trough is uncertain and the effect on the subtropical ridge may be less than what numerical models forecast (they are now predicting a pretty steep recession of the ridge). The effect of 90W on this system is diminishing because the former is approaching Taiwan and is weakening.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/18 HRS
Wind shear in the region is quite low and sea surface temperatures are good for tropical cyclone development. The competing 90W is weakening and is making consolidation earlier for LINFA. LINFA should be able to intensify into a severe tropical storm in a day or two.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/18 HRS 現時該區的垂直風切變和海水溫度均適合熱帶氣旋發展。由於 90W 逐步減弱，蓮花將可比較容易地整固並增強。蓮花應可於一兩日內增強至強烈熱帶風暴。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
According to the present forecast track, little threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours. However uncertainties exist and effect may be more significant should the track is shifted west in coming bulletins.
After traversing Luzon, tropical disturbance 98W intensified into a tropical depression in the South China Sea this afternoon. The JTWC numbered it as 03W. At 20 HKT, 03W was centred about 540 km (290 NM) SSE of Hong Kong.
The subtropical ridge east of 03W has extended west in the system's northern periphery, providing a slight westward component in 03W's movement. A mid-latitude trough now in Mongolia is expected to move east and will possibly weaken the ridge. However the strength of the trough is uncertain and the effect on the subtropical ridge may be less than what numerical models forecast (they are now predicting a pretty steep recession of the ridge). Nevertheless, the weakening ridge and the nearby 90W may serve to slow down 03W's westward movement, and in longer term poleward movement can be expected.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
Wind shear in the region is quite low and sea surface temperatures are good for tropical cyclone development. However the competing 90W to the east will slow down 03W's development and the expected trough will bring higher wind shear to the region. Therefore 03W is expected to intensify slowly in this bulletin.
According to the present forecast track, little threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours. However uncertainties exist and effect may be more significant should the track is shifted west in coming bulletins.
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
