TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Latest TC Info 最新熱帶氣旋資訊 [Refresh 更新]

Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋

Current TC Map 即時氣旋資訊Current TC information


Tropical Cyclone Report 熱帶氣旋報告 [Our partner site's TC report 按此看友站的氣旋報告]

1. 07W (MOLAVE 莫拉菲)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS MOLAVE 熱帶風暴 莫拉菲

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #10 FINAL BULLETIN 最後發佈
Time of Report 報告時間 2009/07/19, 16:45 HKT (08:45 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2009/07/19, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 23.1 N, 111.2 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 994 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 W 西 at 18 knots 節 (33 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Western Guangdong 廣東西部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Latitude
緯度
Longitude
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Avg. Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+02009/07/19 14:0023.1°N111.2°EW (280°) 28 km/h35 kt (65 km/h)WNW 317 km
t+122009/07/20 02:0023.6°N108.0°EN/A25 kt (46 km/h)WNW 648 km

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

MOLAVE continues to weaken. At 14 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 320 km (170 NM) WNW of Hong Kong.

莫拉菲繼續減弱。在 14 HKT,莫拉菲集結在香港西北偏西約 320 公里 (170 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.

莫拉菲一名由菲律賓提供,為一種常用於製造傢俬的硬木。該名字為首次使用,代替曾造成重大破壞的熱帶氣旋伊布都。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge will guide MOLAVE to move W to WNW in the next 12 hours into Guangxi landmass.

副熱帶高壓脊將帶領莫拉菲向西或西北偏西移動,移向廣西。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: N/A
Ddissipation is expected in a day's time.

現時的 T 號碼: 不適用
預料莫拉菲將於一日內消散

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

The weather will improve gradually in the next 24 hours.

天氣將於未來 24 小時逐漸轉好

Next Update 下次更新

This is the final bulletin on MOLAVE.

這是本站對莫拉菲的最後一次發佈

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告 (請按發佈編號顯示內容)

+07W (MOLAVE 莫拉菲) Bulletin 發佈 #9 (2009/07/19, 13:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS MOLAVE 熱帶風暴 莫拉菲

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #9
Time of Report 報告時間 2009/07/19, 13:15 HKT (05:15 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2009/07/19, 11:00 HKT (03:00 UTC)
Position 位置 23.0 N, 112.4 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 988 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 11 knots 節 (20 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central and western Guangdong 廣東中西部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Latitude
緯度
Longitude
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Avg. Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 2009/07/19 11:00 23.0°N 112.4°E WNW (283°) 21 km/h 45 kt (83 km/h) WNW 197 km
t+12 2009/07/19 23:00 23.5°N 110.0°E W (278°) 22 km/h 30 kt (56 km/h) WNW 447 km
t+24 2009/07/20 11:00 23.8°N 107.4°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) WNW 712 km

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

MOLAVE made landfall at Dapeng Peninsula at about 00:50 today. It has travelled further inland and weakened rapidly since then. At 11 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 200 km (110 NM) WNW of Hong Kong. The Observatory has lifted all signals at 13:15 HKT.

莫拉菲於約零時五十分在大鵬灣登陸,隨後繼續移入內陸並逐漸減弱。在 11 HKT,莫拉菲集結在香港西北偏西約 200 公里 (110 海里)。天文台於下午一時十五分取消一號戒備信號

TC Naming 氣旋命名

The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.

莫拉菲一名由菲律賓提供,為一種常用於製造傢俬的硬木。該名字為首次使用,代替曾造成重大破壞的熱帶氣旋伊布都。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge will guide MOLAVE to move W to WNW in the next 24 hours over Guangdong and Guangxi landmasses.

副熱帶高壓脊將帶領莫拉菲向西或西北偏西移動,移向廣西。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: N/A
Ddissipation is expected in a day's time.

現時的 T 號碼: 不適用
預料莫拉菲將於一日內消散

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Winds have subsided by now, but heavy rain is still expected today. The weather will improve gradually in the next 24 hours.

市面風勢已經減弱,但仍有大雨天氣將於未來 24 小時逐漸轉好

Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/07/20 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用

+07W (MOLAVE 莫拉菲) Bulletin 發佈 #8 (2009/07/19, 02:25 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) MOLAVE 一級颱風 莫拉菲

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #8
Time of Report 報告時間 2009/07/19, 02:25 HKT (07/18 18:25 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2009/07/19, 02:00 HKT (07/18 18:00 UTC)
Position 位置 22.6 N, 114.3 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 95 knots 節 (175 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 960 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 16 knots 節 (29 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central Guangdong coast 廣東中部沿岸

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Latitude
緯度
Longitude
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Avg. Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 2009/07/19 02:00 22.6°N 114.3°E WNW (282°) 24 km/h 75 kt (139 km/h) NNE 36 km
t+12 2009/07/19 14:00 23.1°N 111.6°E WNW (285°) 22 km/h 50 kt (93 km/h) WNW 278 km
t+24 2009/07/20 02:00 23.7°N 109.1°E W (281°) 21 km/h 30 kt (56 km/h) WNW 541 km
t+36 2009/07/20 14:00 24.1°N 106.7°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) WNW 789 km

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

MOLAVE is passing to the north of HK. At 02 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 35 km (20 NM) NNE of the HK Observatory.

莫拉菲正於香港北部掠過。在 02 HKT,莫拉菲集結在香港天文台東北偏北約 35 公里 (20 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.

莫拉菲一名由菲律賓提供,為一種常用於製造傢俬的硬木。該名字為首次使用,代替曾造成重大破壞的熱帶氣旋伊布都。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The western extension of the subtropical ridge has lifted northwards, but steering remains primarily to the W/WNW. MOLAVE is expected to move W to WNW in the next 24 hours over Guangdong landmass.

副熱帶高壓脊西沿位置向北移,但南海北部駛流還是以向西至西北偏西為主。預料莫拉菲將向西或西北偏西移動,移入廣東中部。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06 HRS
Rapid weakening will follow after landfall.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06 HRS
預料莫拉菲將於登陸後急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Rain and winds reaching storm force or above will affect HK in the coming hours. Wind direction is likely to change in a counterclockwise manner from northwest to southwest in the early hours of tomorrow. If MOLAVE passes sufficiently close to HK, cyclonic winds may be observed. Low-lying areas may experience flooding.

MOLAVE is expected to be closest to Hong Kong at about 3 am to 6 am on Sunday.

預料未來數小時本地風速將達暴風程度或以上。風向很可能於黎明附近由西北逆時針轉向西南。如莫拉菲非常接近香港,本地將有可能吹旋風。低窪地區可能會有海水倒灌。

預料莫拉菲將於星期日上午約 3 至 6 時最接近香港。

Next Update 下次更新

13 HKT, 2009/07/19 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

The Hurricane Signal should only be necessitated if any station registers hurricane force winds (>117 km/h), reduced to sea level speeds.

十號颶風信號將只會於當有氣象站錄得海平面颶風風速 (>117 公里每小時) 時才會發出。

Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)
Medium 中等
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消)
Medium 中等
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 (Cnl. 取消)
High 高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9 (Cnl. 取消)
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Low 低

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W (MOLAVE 莫拉菲) Bulletin 發佈 #7 (2009/07/18, 23:25 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) MOLAVE 一級颱風 莫拉菲

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #7
Time of Report 報告時間 2009/07/18, 23:25 HKT (15:25 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2009/07/18, 23:00 HKT (15:00 UTC)
Position 位置 22.3 N, 115.1 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 95 knots 節 (175 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 960 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 W 西 at 18 knots 節 (34 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central Guangdong coast 廣東中部沿岸

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Latitude
緯度
Longitude
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Avg. Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 2009/07/18 23:00 22.3°N 115.1°E WNW (284°) 24 km/h 75 kt (139 km/h) E 96 km
t+12 2009/07/19 11:00 22.9°N 112.4°E WNW (282°) 18 km/h 55 kt (102 km/h) WNW 193 km
t+24 2009/07/19 23:00 23.3°N 110.3°E WNW (287°) 16 km/h 30 kt (56 km/h) WNW 412 km
t+36 2009/07/20 11:00 23.8°N 108.5°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) WNW 603 km

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

MOLAVE continues to edge closer to the territory. At 23 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 100 km (50 NM) E of Hong Kong.

莫拉菲繼續移近香港。在 23 HKT,莫拉菲集結在香港以東約 100 公里 (50 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.

莫拉菲一名由菲律賓提供,為一種常用於製造傢俬的硬木。該名字為首次使用,代替曾造成重大破壞的熱帶氣旋伊布都。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The western extension of the subtropical ridge has lifted northwards, but steering remains primarily to the W/WNW. MOLAVE is expected to move W to WNW in the next 24 hours towards central Guangdong coast.

副熱帶高壓脊西沿位置向北移,但南海北部駛流還是以向西至西北偏西為主。預料莫拉菲將向西或西北偏西移動,趨向廣東中部沿岸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06 HRS
MOLAVE's eye appears round and well-defined on RADAR, and it has slightly strengthened in the past 12 hours. Rapid weakening will follow once landfall is encountered.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06 HRS
莫拉菲的風眼於雷達圖上清晰可見,圓渾且組織良好;它於過去 12 小時稍為增強預料莫拉菲將於登陸後急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

The weather will deteriorate significantly near in the coming hours, with winds reaching gale force or above and rain intensifying. Wind direction is likely to change in a counterclockwise manner from northwest to southwest in the early hours of tomorrow. If MOLAVE passes sufficiently close to HK, cyclonic winds may be observed.

MOLAVE is expected to be closest to Hong Kong at about 3 am to 4 am on Sunday.

預料未來數小時天氣將急速轉壞,風勢和雨勢將大幅增強,風速將達烈風程度或以上。風向很可能於明日初期由西北逆時針轉向西南。如莫拉菲非常接近香港,本地將有可能吹旋風。

預料莫拉菲將於星期日上午約 3 至 4 時最接近香港。

Next Update 下次更新

03 HKT, 2009/07/19 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)
Low 低
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消)
Low 低
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 (Cnl. 取消)
Medium 中等
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
High 高
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Low 低

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W (MOLAVE 莫拉菲) Bulletin 發佈 #6 (2009/07/18, 17:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) MOLAVE 一級颱風 莫拉菲

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #6
Time of Report 報告時間 2009/07/18, 17:00 HKT (09:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2009/07/18, 17:00 HKT (09:00 UTC)
Position 位置 21.9 N, 116.7 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 968 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 WNW 西北偏西 at 8 knots 節 (16 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Central Guangdong coast 廣東中部沿岸

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Latitude
緯度
Longitude
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Avg. Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 2009/07/18 17:00 21.9°N 116.7°E WNW (287°) 20 km/h 70 kt (130 km/h) E 264 km
t+12 2009/07/19 05:00 22.5°N 114.5°E WNW (286°) 20 km/h 70 kt (130 km/h) ENE 41 km
t+24 2009/07/19 17:00 23.1°N 112.2°E WNW (289°) 21 km/h 45 kt (83 km/h) WNW 221 km
t+36 2009/07/20 05:00 23.8°N 109.9°E WNW (286°) 20 km/h 25 kt (46 km/h) WNW 467 km
t+48 2009/07/20 17:00 24.4°N 107.6°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) WNW 710 km

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

MOLAVE continues to edge closer to the territory. At 17 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 270 km (140 NM) E of Hong Kong. The Observatory issued the #3 Strong Wind Signal at 14:15 HKT.

莫拉菲繼續移近香港。在 17 HKT,莫拉菲集結在香港以東約 270 公里 (140 海里)。天文台於下午 2:15 發出三號強風信號

TC Naming 氣旋命名

The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.

莫拉菲一名由菲律賓提供,為一種常用於製造傢俬的硬木。該名字為首次使用,代替曾造成重大破壞的熱帶氣旋伊布都。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The western extension of the subtropical ridge has lifted northwards, but steering remains primarily to the W/WNW. MOLAVE is expected to move W to WNW in the next 24 hours towards central Guangdong coast.

副熱帶高壓脊西沿位置向北移,但南海北部駛流還是以向西至西北偏西為主。預料莫拉菲將向西或西北偏西移動,趨向廣東中部沿岸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D0.0/15 HRS
Sufficient sea surface temperatures, good outflow and moderate shear will allow MOLAVE to maintain strength until landfall. Rapid weakening will follow once landfall is encountered.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D0.0/15 HRS
受較高海水溫度,良好輻散和中等的垂直風切變影響,預料莫拉菲將可維持強度直至登陸登陸後莫拉菲將急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Very hot weather was encountered in most parts of HK early today. The weather will deteriorate significantly tonight, with winds reaching gale force or above and rain intensifying. Wind change pattern is still uncertain, but a landfall to the east of HK is becoming slightly more favourable. If MOLAVE passes sufficiently close to HK, cyclonic winds may be observed.

酷熱和有煙霞的天氣於今日初期影響香港。預料今晚天氣將急速轉壞,風勢和雨勢將大幅增強,風速將達烈風程度或以上。由於登陸點仍未確定 (但比較可能在香港以東登陸),風向的轉變仍未能完全掌握;如莫拉菲非常接近香港,本地將有可能吹旋風。

Next Update 下次更新

00 HKT, 2009/07/19 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)
Medium 中等
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消)
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
Very High 極高
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Medium 中等
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Low 低

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W (MOLAVE 莫拉菲) Bulletin 發佈 #5 (2009/07/18, 11:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) MOLAVE 一級颱風 莫拉菲

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #5
Time of Report 報告時間 2009/07/18, 11:30 HKT (03:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2009/07/18, 11:00 HKT (03:00 UTC)
Position 位置 21.5 N, 117.7 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 970 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 W 西 at 11 knots 節 (21 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Northern South China Sea 南海北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Latitude
緯度
Longitude
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Avg. Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 2009/07/18 11:00 21.5°N 117.7°E WNW (287°) 22 km/h 70 kt (130 km/h) ESE 375 km
t+12 2009/07/18 23:00 22.2°N 115.2°E WNW (283°) 22 km/h 70 kt (130 km/h) E 107 km
t+24 2009/07/19 11:00 22.7°N 112.7°E WNW (283°) 21 km/h 55 kt (102 km/h) WNW 157 km
t+36 2009/07/19 23:00 23.2°N 110.3°E WNW (286°) 20 km/h 30 kt (56 km/h) WNW 409 km
t+48 2009/07/20 11:00 23.8°N 108.0°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) WNW 652 km

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

MOLAVE moved W to WNW in the past 12 hours, intensifying slightly in the meantime. At 11 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 380 km (200 NM) ESE of Hong Kong.

莫拉菲於過去 12 小時向西至西北偏西移動,並稍為增強。在 11 HKT,莫拉菲集結在香港東南偏東約 380 公里 (200 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.

莫拉菲一名由菲律賓提供,為一種常用於製造傢俬的硬木。該名字為首次使用,代替曾造成重大破壞的熱帶氣旋伊布都。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

Affected by the subtropical ridge north of the system, MOLAVE is expected to move W to WNW in the next 48 hours towards central Guangdong coast. Track speed is expected to remain fast at about 22 km/h until landfall as strong steering exists.

受副熱帶高壓脊的影響,預料莫拉菲將繼續向西至西北偏西移動,趨向廣東中部沿岸。由於駛流明顯,預料莫拉菲於登陸前移動的速度稍高,約為每小時 22 公里。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D0.0/15 HRS
Sufficient sea surface temperatures, good outflow and moderate shear will allow MOLAVE to maintain strength until landfall. Rapid weakening will follow once landfall is encountered.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D0.0/15 HRS
受較高海水溫度,良好輻散和中等的垂直風切變影響,預料莫拉菲將可維持強度直至登陸登陸後莫拉菲將急速減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

According to the present forecast track, hot and hazy weather in Hong Kong is expected early today. The weather will deteriorate significantly tonight, with winds becoming much stronger and rain intensifying. Wind change pattern is still uncertain as chances for landfalling east and west of HK are about equal. If MOLAVE passes sufficiently close to HK, cyclonic winds may be observed.

按照目前預測路徑,預料炎熱和有煙霞的天氣將於今日初期影響香港;今晚天氣將急速轉壞,風勢和雨勢將大幅增強。由於登陸點仍未確定,風向的轉變仍未能完全掌握;如莫拉菲非常接近香港,本地將有可能吹旋風。

Next Update 下次更新

17 HKT, 2009/07/18 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)
Low 低
High 高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Low 低
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Low 低
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W (MOLAVE 莫拉菲) Bulletin 發佈 #4 (2009/07/17, 21:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TY (CAT. 1) MOLAVE 一級颱風 莫拉菲

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #4
Time of Report 報告時間 2009/07/17, 21:30 HKT (13:30 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2009/07/17, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 20.7 N, 121.3 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 85 knots 節 (155 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 975 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NW 西北 at 16 knots 節 (29 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Luzon Strait and NE part of South China Sea 呂宋海峽與南海東北部

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Latitude
緯度
Longitude
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Avg. Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 2009/07/17 20:00 20.7°N 121.3°E WNW (301°) 22 km/h 65 kt (120 km/h) ESE 758 km
t+12 2009/07/18 08:00 21.9°N 119.1°E WNW (285°) 22 km/h 70 kt (130 km/h) E 509 km
t+24 2009/07/18 20:00 22.5°N 116.6°E WNW (283°) 22 km/h 65 kt (120 km/h) E 251 km
t+36 2009/07/19 08:00 23.0°N 114.1°E WNW (282°) 19 km/h 50 kt (93 km/h) N 78 km
t+48 2009/07/19 20:00 23.4°N 111.9°E WNW (285°) 18 km/h 25 kt (46 km/h) WNW 263 km
t+72 2009/07/20 20:00 24.4°N 107.7°E N/A 15 kt (28 km/h) WNW 700 km

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

MOLAVE developed an eye visible on satellite imagery, and in 1-minute standard MOLAVE is deemed to have intensified into a typhoon. At 20 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 760 km (410 NM) ESE of Hong Kong.

莫拉菲發展出風眼,於一分鐘平均風速機制下本站將其升格為颱風。在 20 HKT,莫拉菲集結在香港東南偏東約 760 公里 (410 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.

莫拉菲一名由菲律賓提供,為一種常用於製造傢俬的硬木。該名字為首次使用,代替曾造成重大破壞的熱帶氣旋伊布都。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

MOLAVE is seen to move NW in the past 6 hours, tracking to the northern part of the Luzon Strait. It is expected that the subtropical ridge will allow MOLAVE to turn WNW soon. Track speed is expected to remain fast at about 22 km/h until landfall as strong steering exists.

莫拉菲於過去 6 小時繼續向西北移動,現在於呂宋海峽北部。受副熱帶高壓脊的影響,預料莫拉菲將轉向西北偏西移動。由於駛流明顯,預料莫拉菲於登陸前移動的速度稍高,約為每小時 22 公里。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/06 HRS
A banding eye has developed, but land effect is distorting the structure in its vicinity somewhat. Wind shear in the South China Sea remains low. It is expected that good divergence and favourable sea temperatures will allow MOLAVE to intensify slightly in the next 12 hours before it starts to weaken as drier air and higher shear set in.

現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/06 HRS
莫拉菲發展出雲捲風眼,但由於地形影響其形狀有待改善南海的垂直風切變亦維持在偏低水平由於輻散和海溫仍佳,預料莫拉菲將可於未來 12 小時增強;稍後由於受到較強垂直風切變和較乾空氣影響而開始減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

According to the present forecast track, hot and hazy weather in Hong Kong is expected today and early tomorrow. Northerly winds should be observed starting later tomorrow; the weather will deteriorate by then. Exact wind shift sequence and strength are still highly dependent on where MOLAVE starts its WNW turn, but by now it is likely that strong force winds will affect the territory on Sunday.

按照目前預測路徑,預料炎熱和有煙霞的天氣將於今天和明天初期影響香港;明日稍後將轉吹北風,天氣將於晚間轉壞。雖然風速和風向的轉變仍未能完全掌握,但根據現時資料香港將可能於星期日吹強風。

Next Update 下次更新

16 HKT, 2009/07/18 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
High 高
Medium 中等
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
High 高
Medium 中等
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
Low 低
Medium 中等
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Low 低
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W (MOLAVE 莫拉菲) Bulletin 發佈 #3 (2009/07/17, 15:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 STS MOLAVE 強烈熱帶風暴 莫拉菲

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #3
Time of Report 報告時間 2009/07/17, 15:00 HKT (07:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2009/07/17, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 19.6 N, 122.5 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 50 knots 節 (95 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 986 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NW 西北 at 12 knots 節 (22 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Luzon Strait 呂宋海峽

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Latitude
緯度
Longitude
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Avg. Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 2009/07/17 14:00 19.6°N 122.5°E NW (305°) 23 km/h 55 kt (102 km/h) ESE 915 km
t+12 2009/07/18 02:00 21.0°N 120.3°E WNW (295°) 23 km/h 65 kt (120 km/h) ESE 649 km
t+24 2009/07/18 14:00 22.0°N 117.9°E WNW (285°) 22 km/h 65 kt (120 km/h) E 385 km
t+36 2009/07/19 02:00 22.6°N 115.4°E W (280°) 23 km/h 60 kt (111 km/h) ENE 131 km
t+48 2009/07/19 14:00 23.0°N 112.8°E WNW (289°) 23 km/h 40 kt (74 km/h) WNW 161 km
t+72 2009/07/20 14:00 24.5°N 107.6°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) WNW 713 km

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

07W intensified further into a severe tropical storm, and was named MOLAVE by the JMA. At 14 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 920 km (500 NM) ESE of Hong Kong.

07W 繼續增強為強烈熱帶風暴,並被日本氣象廳命名為莫拉菲。在 14 HKT,莫拉菲集結在香港東南偏東約 920 公里 (500 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.

莫拉菲一名由菲律賓提供,為一種常用於製造傢俬的硬木。該名字為首次使用,代替曾造成重大破壞的熱帶氣旋伊布都。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge has weakened slightly, but is still covering southeastern China and parts of Taiwan.. It is expected that the ridge will allow MOLAVE to turn WNW soon. Track speed is expected to remain fast at about 22 km/h as strong steering exists.

副熱帶高壓脊於昨晚稍為減弱,但仍覆蓋中國東南部和部分台灣地區。隨著莫拉菲移向約北緯 20 度,它將受副高西延影響而轉向西北偏西移動。由於駛流明顯,預料莫拉菲前進的速度稍高,約為每小時 22 公里。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS
Convective clouds continue to burst around the centre, and from visible imagery MOLAVE is developing a banding eye. Wind shear has increased slightly in the South China Sea. It is expected that good divergence and favourable sea temperatures will allow MOLAVE to intensify further, possibly maturing as a typhoon, before it starts to weaken as land effect and higher shear set in.

現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS
莫拉菲附近對流爆發持續,從可見光衛星雲圖可見該系統正嘗試建立雲捲風眼南海的垂直風切變於過去 24 小時稍為增強由於輻散和海溫仍佳,預料莫拉菲將可繼續增強,或可成為一股颱風;稍後由於受到較強垂直風切變和接近陸地影響而開始減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

According to the present forecast track, hot and hazy weather in Hong Kong is expected today and early tomorrow. Northerly winds should be observed starting later tomorrow; the weather will deteriorate by then. Exact wind shift sequence and strength are still highly dependent on where MOLAVE starts its WNW turn, but by now it is quite likely that strong force winds will affect the territory on Sunday.

按照目前預測路徑,預料炎熱和有煙霞的天氣將於今天和明天初期影響香港;明日稍後將轉吹北風,天氣將於晚間轉壞。雖然風速和風向的轉變仍未能完全掌握,但根據現時資料香港將很可能於星期日吹強風。

Next Update 下次更新

00 HKT, 2009/07/18 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
High 高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
High 高
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
High 高
Medium 中等
Low 低
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Low 低
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W Bulletin 發佈 #2 (2009/07/16, 16:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TS 07W 熱帶風暴 07W

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #2
Time of Report 報告時間 2009/07/16, 16:00 HKT (08:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2009/07/16, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 17.2 N, 125.2 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 998 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NNW 西北偏北 at 13 knots 節 (24 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Seas E of the Philippines 菲律賓以東海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Latitude
緯度
Longitude
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Avg. Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 2009/07/16 14:00 17.2°N 125.2°E NW (311°) 19 km/h 35 kt (65 km/h) ESE 1285 km
t+12 2009/07/17 02:00 18.5°N 123.6°E NW (305°) 19 km/h 40 kt (74 km/h) ESE 1069 km
t+24 2009/07/17 14:00 19.7°N 121.8°E WNW (300°) 19 km/h 45 kt (83 km/h) ESE 842 km
t+36 2009/07/18 02:00 20.7°N 119.9°E WNW (296°) 21 km/h 50 kt (93 km/h) ESE 618 km
t+48 2009/07/18 14:00 21.7°N 117.7°E WNW (289°) 20 km/h 55 kt (102 km/h) E 370 km
t+72 2009/07/19 14:00 23.1°N 113.2°E WNW (287°) 21 km/h 40 kt (74 km/h) NW 133 km
t+96 2009/07/20 14:00 24.4°N 108.4°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) WNW 633 km

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

07W intensified into a tropical storm this morning. At 14 HKT, 07W was centred about 530 km (280 NM) ENE of Manila.

07W 於今晨增強為熱帶風暴。在 14 HKT,07W 集結在馬尼拉東北偏東約 530 公里 (280 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge is firmly established in southeastern China. It is expected that the ridge will allow 07W to turn WNW after reaching higher latitudes due to the ridge's dominance there.

於華南的脊場現已建立。預料副熱帶高壓脊將繼續覆蓋華南沿岸,致使 07W 到達較高緯度時轉向西北偏西移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18 HRS
Wind shear has increased to the south of 07W. The storm tried to wrap the circulation cloud bands into its centre but most attempts ended in failure. However, it seems that 07W is now able to slowly wrap its cloud bands in the southeastern quadrant. Sea temperatures and divergence remain good, but wind shear may increase later as 07W enters the South China Sea. Gradual strengthening is thus expected until t+48 when wind shear and proximity to land become inhibiting factors then.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18 HRS
07W 以南的垂直風切變明顯增強該系統曾多次嘗試把對流捲入中心,但未見成果最近的衛星圖像顯示 07W 開始成功捲入東南面的對流07W 的輻散和附近海溫仍佳,但預料當 07W 進入南海時風切將稍為增強在此情況下,預料 07W 將於未來 48 小時逐漸發展,其後由於風切變增加和靠近陸地而減弱

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

According to the present forecast track, hot and hazy weather in Hong Kong is expected in the next two days, and northerly squalls and rain might affect Hong Kong in the first half of the coming Sunday.

按照目前預測路徑,預料炎熱和有煙霞的天氣將於未來兩日影響香港;星期日前半部香港可能受偏北狂風影響並有雨。

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2009/07/17 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Medium 中等
High 高
High 高
High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
Low 低
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Low 低
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

+07W Bulletin 發佈 #1 (2009/07/15, 23:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱 TD 07W 熱帶低氣壓 07W

Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #1
Time of Report 報告時間 2009/07/15, 23:00 HKT (15:00 UTC)
Time of Observation 觀測時間 2009/07/15, 20:00 HKT (12:00 UTC)
Position 位置 15.0 N, 127.2 E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 25 knots 節 (45 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1000 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速 NW 西北 at 6 knots 節 (12 km/h 公里每小時)
Area(s) affected 受影響地區 Seas E of the Philippines 菲律賓以東海域

Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Latitude
緯度
Longitude
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Avg. Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 2009/07/15 20:00 15.0°N 127.2°E NW 18 km/h 30 kt (56 km/h) ESE 1592 km
t+12 2009/07/16 08:00 16.5°N 126.0°E NW 19 km/h 35 kt (65 km/h) ESE 1397 km
t+24 2009/07/16 20:00 18.1°N 124.6°E NW 19 km/h 45 kt (83 km/h) ESE 1183 km
t+36 2009/07/17 08:00 19.4°N 122.9°E WNW 19 km/h 55 kt (102 km/h) ESE 962 km
t+48 2009/07/17 20:00 20.5°N 121.0°E WNW 21 km/h 60 kt (111 km/h) ESE 734 km
t+72 2009/07/18 20:00 22.5°N 116.7°E N/A 60 kt (111 km/h) E 261 km

Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖

Disturbance 91W intensified into this year's seventh tropical depression this afternoon. At 20 HKT, 07W was centred about 660 km (360 NM) E of Manila.

熱帶擾動 91W 於今天下午增強為熱帶低氣壓 07W。在 20 HKT,07W 集結在馬尼拉以東約 660 公里 (360 海里)。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge is seen north and east of 07W, which contributes to its present NW movement. It is expected that the ridge will strengthen further and 07W will turn to a WNW direction after reaching higher latitudes due to the ridge's dominance there.

副熱帶高壓脊正處於 07W 的北面和東面,其東南氣流正令 07W 向西北移動。預料副高將於本週後期繼續西伸,覆蓋華南沿岸,致使 07W 到達較高緯度時轉向西北偏西移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
Favourable divergence, light wind shear and good sea surface temperatures will cause 07W to strengthen at about climatological rate in the next 48 hours. Proximity to land and the expected higher shear when 07W enters South China Sea might cause intensification to cease later, but this is effect is rather uncertain at this moment.

現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
良好的輻散,較低的垂直風切變和頗高的海溫將於未來 48 小時 07W 以接近氣候平均值速度增強。預計 07W 將於 48 小時後稍為靠近陸地,而南海的垂直風切變亦有可能增強,兩者皆會令增強速度放緩但現在為止此情景出現的可能性仍未算明朗

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

According to the present forecast track, hot and hazy weather in Hong Kong is expected two days later, and northerly winds might be observed beyond t+60.

按照目前預測路徑,炎熱和有煙霞的天氣將於兩日後影響香港;60 小時後香港可能吹偏北風。

Next Update 下次更新

19 HKT, 2009/07/16 (or earlier 或更早)

Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10

Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上

Track Data from HKWW 本站之路徑資料

YYMMDDZZ Lat Long Wind
09071500 135N1290E 020
09071506 146N1277E 025
09071512 150N1272E 030
09071518 156N1265E 035
09071600 160N1257E 035
09071606 172N1252E 035
09071612 176N1245E 040
09071618 180N1240E 045
09071700 187N1233E 050
09071706 196N1225E 055
09071712 207N1213E 065
09071715 209N1204E 065
09071718 209N1196E 065
09071721 212N1189E 065
09071800 214N1183E 070
09071803 215N1177E 070
09071806 217N1171E 070
09071809 219N1167E 075*
09071812 222N1161E 075
09071815 223N1151E 075
09071816 224N1148E 075
09071817 225N1145E 075
09071818 226N1143E 070**
09071819 227N1141E 070
09071820 227N1139E 065
09071821 227N1135E 065
09071900 229N1131E 055
09071903 230N1124E 045
09071906 231N1112E 035

*Revised upwards from 70 knots 上調自 70 節
**Revised downwards from 75 knots 下調自 75 節

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Thu Oct 17 2019 00:52:57 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Tue Dec 24 2013

觀看訪客統計報表 Web Traffic Statistics



Statistics