GONI was relocated today as its low-level circulation centre escaped from the main cloud bands. It travel NE rapidly and weakened into a tropical depression earlier. At 20 HKT, GONI was centred about 320 km (170 NM) SSW of Hong Kong.
GONI was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan in English. A swan is a large graceful, usually white, bird with a long thin neck that lives on rivers, lakes, etc. It flies to Korea from Siberia in winter, and is a symbol of loyalty.
The English spelling was changed from KONI in 2008.
The name was last used in 2003; the storm associated with this name necessitated the #1 Standby Signal.
GONI is lingering near Hainan Island. At 08 HKT, GONI was centred about 290 km (160 NM) SW of Haikou.
天鵝於海南島附近徘徊。在 08 HKT,天鵝集結在海口西南約 290 公里 (160 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
GONI was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan in English. A swan is a large graceful, usually white, bird with a long thin neck that lives on rivers, lakes, etc. It flies to Korea from Siberia in winter, and is a symbol of loyalty.
The English spelling was changed from KONI in 2008.
The name was last used in 2003; the storm associated with this name necessitated the #1 Standby Signal.
Interactions with MORAKOT may cause GONI to travel east in the next 24 hours. Later on the dominant southwesterlies in the South China Sea will push GONI towards Guangdong.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS
Due to high wind shear and proximity to land, GONI could not intensify. It is expected GONI will maintain strength as it travels near Hainan Island, and will gradually weaken near landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS
受到較高垂直風切變和接近陸地的影響,天鵝並不能增強。預料天鵝於海南附近海域經過時只能維持強度,並於靠近廣東時減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Accoding to the present forecast track and intensity, swells may be present in Hong Kong waters later.
根據目前預測移動路徑和系統強度,香港鄰近海域將於稍後出現暗湧。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/08/10 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Low 低
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
Low 低
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
GONI has intensified slightly. At 08 HKT, GONI was centred about 230 km (120 NM) WSW of Haikou.
天鵝稍為增強。在 08 HKT,天鵝集結在海口西南偏西約 230 公里 (120 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
GONI was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan in English. A swan is a large graceful, usually white, bird with a long thin neck that lives on rivers, lakes, etc. It flies to Korea from Siberia in winter, and is a symbol of loyalty.
The English spelling was changed from KONI in 2008.
The name was last used in 2003; the storm associated with this name necessitated the #1 Standby Signal.
Interactions with typhoon MORAKOT may cause GONI to travel south or southeast in the next 24 hours. After looping near Hainan Island, interaction between the storms is expected to weaken and GONI will travel north to make landfall in Guangdong.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/18 HRS
Under unfavourable environments, GONI is expected to maintain strength while it travels near Hainan. If it touches Hainan Island, it may even weaken to a tropical depression. Absorption by MORAKOT is still possible later, but is less likely as MORAKOT is weakening rather rapidly and is forecast to travel north.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/18 HRS
受到不利環境影響,預料天鵝於海南附近海域經過時只能維持強度。若天鵝橫過海南島陸地,受高山影響它將可能減弱為熱帶低氣壓。雖然天鵝有機會被莫拉克吸收,但由於莫拉克登陸後大幅減弱且開始向北移,此可能性已減低。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Accoding to the present forecast track and intensity, swells may be present in Hong Kong waters later.
根據目前預測移動路徑和系統強度,香港鄰近海域將於稍後出現暗湧。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/08/09 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Low 低
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
GONI was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan in English. A swan is a large graceful, usually white, bird with a long thin neck that lives on rivers, lakes, etc. It flies to Korea from Siberia in winter, and is a symbol of loyalty.
The English spelling was changed from KONI in 2008.
The name was last used in 2003; the storm associated with this name necessitated the #1 Standby Signal.
GONI was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan in English. A swan is a large graceful, usually white, bird with a long thin neck that lives on rivers, lakes, etc. It flies to Korea from Siberia in winter, and is a symbol of loyalty.
The English spelling was changed from KONI in 2008.
The name was last used in 2003; the storm associated with this name necessitated the #1 Standby Signal.
Interactions with typhoon MORAKOT may cause GONI to travel south, eventually reaching Hainan Island.
與颱風莫拉克的相互影響將可能令天鵝向南移動,趨向海南島一帶。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: N/A
GONI is expected to remain on land for some time, and weakening into a tropical depression is likely in the next 24 hours. Numerical predictions call for absorption by typhoon MORAKOT in 2 days' time.
現時的 T 號碼: 不適用
由於天鵝將繼續經過陸地,預料它將於 24 小時內減弱為熱帶低氣壓。部分數值模式預報指出天鵝將於兩天內被颱風莫拉克吸收。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Occasional showers might still affect the territory.
本港間中或會受驟雨影響。
Next Update 下次更新
17 HKT, 2009/08/07 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
GONI was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan in English. A swan is a large graceful, usually white, bird with a long thin neck that lives on rivers, lakes, etc. It flies to Korea from Siberia in winter, and is a symbol of loyalty. The English spelling was changed from KONI in 2008.
Weak steering rendered GONI almost stationary. Meanwhile, typhoon MORAKOT may move west in the next 72 hours towards Chinese mainland or Taiwan, and therefore it is possible that interactions between the storms will be more significant later. Such interactions may cause GONI to travel south.
GONI was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan in English. A swan is a large graceful, usually white, bird with a long thin neck that lives on rivers, lakes, etc. It flies to Korea from Siberia in winter, and is a symbol of loyalty. The English spelling was changed from KONI in 2008.
Affected by a ridge near Taiwan and the westward extension of its influence, GONI will continue to move west. Meanwhile, severe tropical storm MORAKOT may move west in the next 72 hours towards Chinese mainland or Taiwan, and therefore it is possible that interactions between the storms will be more significant beyond t+48. Such interactions may cause GONI to loop.
Current T-number: N/A
A general weakening trend has started. However the rate of weakening depends highly on whether the storm is embedded deep in land; weakening rate could be lower if GONI skirted the coastal areas instead.
現時的 T 號碼: 不適用
天鵝已開始減弱,但減弱速度將取決於天鵝進入內陸之深淺,如天鵝只掃過沿岸地區,減弱速度或會較低。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Occasional strong southerly winds will be observed in offshore waters and on high grounds.
本港離岸地區和高地將間中吹偏南強風。
Next Update 下次更新
00 HKT, 2009/08/06 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)
Medium 中等
High 高
High 高
High 高
High 高
High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
GONI has started to travel west. At 02 HKT, GONI was centred about 140 km (80 NM) WSW of Hong Kong.
天鵝開始向偏西移動。在 02 HKT,天鵝集結在香港西南偏西約 140 公里 (80 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
GONI was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan in English. A swan is a large graceful, usually white, bird with a long thin neck that lives on rivers, lakes, etc. It flies to Korea from Siberia in winter, and is a symbol of loyalty. The English spelling was changed from KONI in 2008.
Affected by a ridge near Taiwan and the westward extension of its influence, GONI has started tracking westward. Meanwhile, tropical storm MORAKOT may move west in the next 72 hours towards China, and therefore it is possible that interactions between the storms will be more significant beyond t+72. Such interactions may cause GONI to loop.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/06 HRS
A general weakening trend is expected as GONI nears land. However the rate of weakening depends highly on whether the storm is embedded deep in land; weakening rate could be lower if GONI skirted the coastal areas instead.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/06 HRS
天鵝將開始減弱,但減弱速度將取決於天鵝進入內陸之深淺,如天鵝只掃過沿岸地區,減弱速度或會較低。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Southeasterly winds, changing gradually to southerly, are expected to remain strong in the next few hours, and occasional squalls may be observed as Hong Kong is hit by GONI's rain bands. GONI has passed its closest approach to Hong Kong.
GONI intensified significantly, and its circulation appears tight on radar. Force 11 winds (sustained) were reported at Huangmao Zhou earlier. At 20 HKT, GONI was centred about 110 km (60 NM) SW of Hong Kong. The #8 SE Signal was issued at 21:40 HKT.
GONI was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan in English. A swan is a large graceful, usually white, bird with a long thin neck that lives on rivers, lakes, etc. It flies to Korea from Siberia in winter, and is a symbol of loyalty. The English spelling was changed from KONI in 2008.
A ridge has developed north of Taiwan, and GONI is situated in its southwestern periphery. Therefore NW to NNW movement is expected before landfall. The ridge's influence is seen extending west at above 23°N, and thus GONI may track westward after landfall. The disturbance east of GONI has intensified into tropical storm MORAKOT and may move west in the next 72 hours, and therefore it is possible that interactions between the storms will be more significant beyond t+72. Such interactions may cause GONI to loop.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/06 HRS
GONI should maintain strength in the next 6 to 12 hours. Rapid weakening follows as landfall is made. However it depends highly on whether the storm is embedded deep in land; weakening rate could be lower if GONI skirted the coastal areas instead.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/06 HRS
天鵝將於未來 6 至 12 小時維持強度,並於登陸後迅速減弱;減弱程度取決於天鵝進入內陸之深淺,如天鵝只掃過沿岸地區,減弱速度或會較低。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Winds are expected to strengthen from the east/southeast, changing to south overnight and reaching gale force. Western parts of Hong Kong will be affected more severely as places there are closer to the storm.
GONI is expected to be closest to Hong Kong in the following few hours.
本港東至東南風將增強至烈風程度,稍後將轉為南風。由於香港西部距離天鵝較近,該區風勢將更為強勁。
天鵝將於未來數小時最為接近香港。
Next Update 下次更新
02 HKT, 2009/08/05 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
High 高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消)
Low 低
Medium 中等
High 高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 (Cnl. 取消)
Medium 中等
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
GONI moved northwest last night, continuing to intensify in the interim. At 08 HKT, GONI was centred about 180 km (100 NM) S of Hong Kong. The #3 Strong Wind Signal was issued at 11:15 HKT.
GONI was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan in English. A swan is a large graceful, usually white, bird with a long thin neck that lives on rivers, lakes, etc. It flies to Korea from Siberia in winter, and is a symbol of loyalty. The English spelling was changed from KONI in 2008.
A ridge has developed north of Taiwan, and GONI is situated in its southwestern periphery. Therefore NW to NNW movement is expected before landfall. The ridge's influence is seen extending west at above 23°N, and thus GONI may track westward after landfall. The disturbance east of GONI has intensified into tropical storm MORAKOT and may move west in the next 72 hours, and therefore it is possible that interactions between the storms will be more significant beyond t+72. Such interactions may cause GONI to loop.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18 HRS
GONI is expected to intensify slightly before landfall due to favourable sea temperatures and moisture content. Rapid weakening follows as landfall is made. However it depends highly on whether the storm is embedded deep in land; weakening rate could be lower if GONI skirted the coastal areas instead.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18 HRS
由於南海水溫仍高,預料天鵝將於登陸前稍為增強,但登陸後應迅速減弱;減弱程度取決於天鵝進入內陸之深淺,如天鵝只掃過沿岸地區,減弱速度或會較低。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Rainbands associated with GONI will affect Hong Kong in the next few days, and winds will strengthen from the east to northeast. Winds are expected to turn gradually to southeast in a clockwise manner.
GONI was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan in English. A swan is a large graceful, usually white, bird with a long thin neck that lives on rivers, lakes, etc. It flies to Korea from Siberia in winter, and is a symbol of loyalty. The English spelling was changed from KONI in 2008.
GONI is expected to travel north, and with the strengthening of the ridge in China it is expected to turn west before landfall. The disturbance east of GONI may develop and move west, and therefore it is possible that interactions between the storms will be more significant beyond t+72. Such interactions may contribute to the eastward motion of the storm. However this is subject to a large uncertainty, and track forecast beyond t+72 is drawn with lower confidence.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/06 HRS
GONI has settled down to having one rotation centre, but convections are constantly displaced to the west. Conditions in the South China Sea are still favourable for development, but shear has increased a bit. GONI is expected to intensify before landfall, and weakening trend should be observed after landfall as moist air is cut off.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/06 HRS
天鵝對流仍未能集中在低層環流中心附近。南海環境不俗,但垂直風切變稍為增加。預料天鵝將於登陸前稍為增強,登陸後由於水氣供應減少而將減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Rainbands associated with GONI will affect Hong Kong in the next few days, and winds will strengthen from the northeast tomorrow. However the exact effects to Hong Kong will depend on its future movement which is quite uncertain at this point in time.
93W was upgraded to tropical depression 08W by the JTWC today. The depression also started to move north last night. At 14 HKT, 08W was centred about 400 km (220 NM) SSE of Hong Kong. The Observatory issued the #1 Standby Signal at 15:15 HKT.
08W has responded to the weakening of the ridge north of it and started its northward journey. It is expected that the subtropical ridge will gradually extend to the west at a relatively low latitude to allow temporary NNE/NE movement of the storm, and later on the high pressure in China will consolidate again to provide westward component in 08W's motion. Track speed is expected to be low as a result of weak steering.
Another disturbance east of 08W is developing. However as their separation is quite large at this moment, interaction between them is not likely, at least for the next 3 days.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS
08W has settled down to having one rotation centre, but convections are constantly displaced to the west. Conditions in the South China Sea are still favourable for development, but shear has increased a bit. Nevertheless, tropical storm strength is still expected some time in the next 72 hours.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS
08W 終於整合至只有一個低層環流中心,但對流仍處於該中心西面。南海環境不俗,但垂直風切變稍為增加。預料 08W 應可最少增強至熱帶風暴強度。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Rainbands associated with 08W will affect Hong Kong in the next few days, and winds might strengthen starting from tomorrow. However the exact effects to Hong Kong will depend on its future movement which is quite uncertain at this point in time.
A major relocation took place last night, with 93W now situating in the South China Sea. At 14 HKT, 93W was centred about 600 km (320 NM) SE of Hong Kong.
A relocation was made earlier to reflect the situation most consistent with what the wind field suggests (Wind speeds in the Philippines have shifted to SW). The ridge north of 93W is weakening and thus 93W is not expected to maintain westward movement beyond t+24. However later movement remains largely uncertain:
According to some numerical models, a disturbance east of 93W may develop and affect 93W's path. If this occurs, a eastward component in track direction should be observed;
The subtropical ridge now in western Pacific could extend westward, contributing to a north or northeastern motion as low-latitude extension is likely.
However, there is a high confidence that 93W will move slowly in the South China Sea, due to the uncertain and weak steering flow.
Current T-number: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24 HRS
Conditions are favourable in the South China Sea. However 93W still needs some time in consolidating its structure and improving cloud banding; once these procedures are completed, intensification is quite likely.
現時的 T 號碼: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24 HRS
南海的環境頗佳,但預料 93W 仍需一段時間來整合其組織和附近環流;在整合完畢後它應可在有利環境下增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Subsidence associated with the cyclone is expected to bring very hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong in the next few days.
與該系統相關的下沉氣流將會於未來數天為本港帶來酷熱及有煙霞的天氣。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/08/03 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
High 高
High 高
High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Tropical disturbance 93W over the Philippine Sea has intensified into a tropical depression. At 14 HKT, 93W was centred about 540 km (290 NM) ENE of Manila.
The ridge north of 93W has contributed to its persistent westward track, but is now weakening rapidly and there is a wide pressure col north of 93W. It is expected that 93W will gradually turn north along the col, due to the steering from the subtropical ridge east of 93W. Due to the large coverage and instability of the system, the development of another centre west of the current one cannot be ruled out.
Current T-number: T1.5/1.5/INT OBS
Vertical wind shear is quite high south of 93W due to the persistent low-level southwesterlies, and convection is sheared to the west with the most intense rainbands situating in the South China Sea. As 93W moves north and away of the strong shear, gradual intensification is expected.
現時的 T 號碼: T1.5/1.5/INT OBS
93W 南部持續受低層西南風影響,風切變因而強烈,93W 大部分的對流切離至其西面,部分更進入了南海。預料 93W 稍後的北移將令其移離高風切區,有利其增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Subsidence associated with the cyclone is expected to bring very hot weather to Hong Kong in the next few days.
與該系統相關的下沉氣流將會於未來數天為本港帶來酷熱的天氣。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/08/02 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。