LUPIT accelerated to the northeast. At 14 HKT, LUPIT was centred about 600 km (330 NM) S of Osaka.
盧碧向東北加速移動。在 14 HKT，盧碧集結在大阪以南約 600 公里 (330 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
LUPIT is the 94th name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by the Philippines, meaning "cruel" and "vicious". This name was last used in 2003.
LUPIT remained stronger than expected. At 14 HKT, LUPIT was centred about 160 km (85 NM) SSE of Okinawa.
盧碧比預期強。在 14 HKT，盧碧集結在沖繩島東南偏南約 160 公里 (85 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
LUPIT is the 94th name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by the Philippines, meaning "cruel" and "vicious". This name was last used in 2003.
As LUPIT is stronger than expected, it is now predicted to be steered by the Pacific subtropical ridge and will enter the westerlies later on.
由於盧碧比預測為強，預料太平洋副熱帶高壓脊應能順利使盧碧進入西風帶。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
Good outflow associated with the passing trough has strengthened LUPIT. LUPIT is expected to gradually transform into an extratropical cyclone in a baroclinic environment.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS 西風槽前的良好輻散令盧碧稍為增強。預料盧碧稍後將於斜壓環境中轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
盧碧於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/26 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
LUPIT has started to recurve. At 14 HKT, LUPIT was centred about 490 km (270 NM) SSW of Okinawa.
盧碧開始向東北轉向。在 14 HKT，盧碧集結在沖繩島西南偏南約 490 公里 (270 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
LUPIT is the 94th name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by the Philippines, meaning "cruel" and "vicious". This name was last used in 2003.
Under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge, LUPIT will move NE in the next 48 to 72 hours. As LUPIT weakens it will slow considerably and will later be steered by the low-level northeasterlies.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/18 HRS
LUPIT will enter regions of high shear and low sea surface temperatures. It is therefore expected to weaken gradually.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/18 HRS 盧必將進入高垂直風切變和低海溫的環境，預料它將會逐漸減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
LUPIT's subsidence will continue to bring fine and hazy weather to Hong Kong today.
盧碧的外圍下沉氣流將令煙霞籠罩香港。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/25 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
LUPIT is the 94th name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by the Philippines, meaning "cruel" and "vicious". This name was last used in 2003.
LUPIT's track speed is expected to be low in the next 48 hours as it is trapped in a pressure col. The more likely scenario of LUPIT recurving from the weakness is depicted in this bulletin, while another possible (but less likely) case is that LUPIT will weaken to a point that it is steered by the lower level northeast monsoon and moves southwestward.
LUPIT is the 94th name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by the Philippines, meaning "cruel" and "vicious". This name was last used in 2003.
The linkage between the ridges north of LUPIT remained weak, and a weakness was again revealed in the upper-level weather map earlier today. LUPIT is currently situated in a pressure col and track speed is expected to be slow in the next 48 to 72 hours. The more likely scenario of LUPIT recurving from the weakness is depicted in this bulletin, but the case that LUPIT will stay until another expansionary phase of the ridge cannot be ruled out at this moment.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24 HRS
LUPIT's deep convections are being eroded away, leaving it as a marginal typhoon. LUPIT is expected to weaken slightly as it remains quasi-stationary..
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24 HRS 盧碧的深層對流逐漸被削弱。預料盧碧將於停滯期間稍為減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
LUPIT's subsidence will bring fine and hazy weather to Hong Kong in the next few days.
受盧碧的外圍下沉氣流影響，未來數天香港將會天晴並有煙霞。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2009/10/23 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
LUPIT is the 94th name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by the Philippines, meaning "cruel" and "vicious". This name was last used in 2003.
The ridges have connected north of LUPIT, and is contributing to the current WSW movement. The forecast philosophy has changed significantly since the last bulletin. It is expected that LUPIT will travel WSW to the northern tip of Luzon, while the subtropical ridge may be broken by another trough 2 to 3 days later, leading to a gradual poleward turn. Forecast confidence remains low as it is difficult to predict the timing of the trough's arrival and the breakdown of the ridge.
Current T-number: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24 HRS
LUPIT continues to weaken. As LUPIT is expected to approach land soon, intensification is now not expected prior to landfall at the Philippines. LUPIT will weaken as it skirts northern Luzon, and the rather unfavourable environment in northern South China Sea should further weaken the system as it travels across.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24 HRS 盧碧於過去 24 小時繼續減弱。由於盧碧即將接近陸地，預測它將不會於菲律賓登陸前增強。盧碧將於掠過呂宋北部時減弱，而受到南海北部的不利環境影響，盧碧將於南海繼續減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
LUPIT's subsidence will bring fine and hazy weather to Hong Kong towards the weekend.
受盧碧的外圍下沉氣流影響，香港將於週末變為天晴並有煙霞。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2009/10/22 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Low 低
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
LUPIT is the 94th name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by the Philippines, meaning "cruel" and "vicious". This name was last used in 2003.
The Pacific ridge is extending but the ridges have not yet recombined. LUPIT is expected to track west to west-northwest in the next 12 to 24 hours. As the ridge extends, LUPIT will be steered to the west-southwest in the southern periphery of the combined ridge. The track was shifted northwards compared to the last bulletin due to the higher latitude that LUPIT reaches. The extended forecast for this bulletin remains the same as that in the last bulletin with a lower track speed, and it should also be noted that models diverge widely on the outcome after t+72.
Current T-number: T5.0/5.5/W1.5/24 HRS
Dry air intrusion has led to LUPIT's weakening. LUPIT is apparently entering an eyewall replacement cycle now and its intensity is expected to remain stable or increase slightly. LUPIT should weaken as it enters the South China Sea due to lower sea surface temperatures and possible land interactions with Luzon.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.5/W1.5/24 HRS 受乾空氣入侵，盧碧於過去 24 小時減弱。盧碧正進入眼牆置換週期，預料其強度將維持並可能於週期完成後稍為上升。由於南海海溫較低，且盧碧亦可能受呂宋地形影響，它將會於進入南海時減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
盧碧於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/21 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
LUPIT strengthened into a super typhoon last night, and has started to move NW again since early today. At 14 HKT, LUPIT was centred about 1390 km (750 NM) ENE of Manila.
LUPIT is the 94th name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by the Philippines, meaning "cruel" and "vicious". This name was last used in 2003.
The Pacific ridge has slightly extended westward north of LUPIT, and thus LUPIT's eastward movement ceased. The ridge is expected to extend so as to position LUPIT in its southern periphery. LUPIT will move WSW due to the ridge's expected orientation between t+24 and t+72 and a landfall in northern Luzon is rather likely. The extended forecast currently favours ECMWF's outcome, which has persistently been showing a westward course towards southern Hainan. However, it should be noted that the uncertainty beyond the t+72 forecast is quite high in this bulletin.
Current T-number: T6.5/7.0/D0.5/24 HRS
LUPIT's eye was very clear last night but has shown signs of weakening in the past 6 hours. LUPIT is expected to weaken slightly due to the obstruction of poleward outflow as the ridge extends, and will lose strength considerably while it traverses Luzon. LUPIT may intensify again in the South China Sea, but this depends on the latitude that it travels across.
現時的 T 號碼: T6.5/7.0/D0.5/24 HRS 盧碧的風眼昨夜非常清晰，但過去 6 小時盧碧呈現減弱之勢。隨著副高西伸，極向輻散通道或會受阻，令盧碧稍為減弱。預料盧碧將於橫過呂宋時急速減弱，但可能於南海中稍為增強 (取決於盧碧進入南海的緯度)。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
盧碧於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/20 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
LUPIT is the 94th name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by the Philippines, meaning "cruel" and "vicious". This name was last used in 2003.
LUPIT turned northeast due to the NE-SW orientation of the eastern subtropical ridge. Since LUPIT is still inside the pressure col between the ridges, forward speed will continue to be slow for the next 24 hours. The Pacific ridge is expected to re-establish after the passage of the trough currently near Japan, steering LUPIT to the west again. There is a slight possibility that LUPIT will escape to the north through the weakness, but this scenario is deemed rather unlikely at this point.
LUPIT is likely to move with some southward component as it enters the South China Sea due to the anticyclone over southwestern China.
Current T-number: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24 HRS
LUPIT is displaying a round eye with a well-defined central dense overcast. Under favourable divergence and sea temperatures LUPIT will continue to strengthen in the next 24 to 48 hours, possibly into a category 5 typhoon. LUPIT is expected to weaken when it enters the South China Sea due to lower ocean heat content and possibly interactions with Luzon landmass.
現時的 T 號碼: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24 HRS 盧碧風眼圓渾，中心密集雲區結實。在輻散良好且水溫偏高的洋面上，預料盧碧將於未來 24 至 48 小時繼續增強，有可能發展為五級颱風。預料盧碧將於進入南海時受較低海溫和呂宋地形影響而減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
盧碧於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/19 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
LUPIT is the 94th name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by the Philippines, meaning "cruel" and "vicious". This name was last used in 2003.
The ridge north of LUPIT has broken into two halves and LUPIT has decelerated. The ridge is expected to re-establish after the passage of the trough currently near Korea, steering LUPIT to the west again. There is a slight possibility that LUPIT will escape to the north through the weakness, but this scenario is deemed rather unlikely at this point.
Current T-number: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS
LUPIT benefited from very high ocean heat content and intensification rate has been fast. It is expected that such favourable environment will persist for the next 3 days and LUPIT will strengthen into an intense typhoon. LUPIT is expected to weaken when it enters the South China Sea due to lower ocean heat content and possibly interactions with Luzon landmass.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS 受惠於極高海面熱含量，盧碧增強的速度頗快。有利環境將於未來三天持續，盧碧將於靠近菲律賓時增強為一非常猛烈的颱風。預料盧碧將於進入南海時受較低海溫和呂宋地形影響而減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
盧碧於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/18 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
22W intensified quickly in the last 24 hours, attaining typhoon status in 1-minute average standard. It was named LUPIT by the JMA. At 14 HKT, LUPIT was centred about 1630 km (880 NM) E of Manila.
LUPIT is the 94th name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by the Philippines, meaning "cruel" and "vicious". This name was last used in 2003.
A broad zonal subtropical ridge is situated north of LUPIT. A passing mid-latitude trough is expected to weaken the ridge in the short term, leading to a slower motion towards the northwest. The ridge is expected to re-establish after the passage of the trough, steering LUPIT to the west again. There is a slight possibility that LUPIT will escape to the north through the weakness, but this scenario is deemed rather unlikely at this point.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/18 HRS
LUPIT benefited from very high ocean heat content and intensification rate has been fast. It is expected that such favourable environment will persist for the next 3 to 5 days, leading to a very strong typhoon by the end of the forecast period.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/18 HRS 受惠於極高海面熱含量，盧碧增強的速度頗快。預料有利環境將於未來三至五天持續，盧碧將可能於預測後期增強至一非常猛烈的颱風。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
盧碧於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/17 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
A broad zonal subtropical ridge is situated north of 22W. This ridge is expected to weaken slightly near t+36 to t+48, allowing 22W to take a more poleward track at a slower pace. The ridge is expected to strengthen shortly afterwards which will steer 22W towards the west again.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS
Warm seas and low shear will allow 22W to strengthen. The rate of intensification may increase as 22W moves west of 135 degrees east due to the very high ocean heat content and improved divergence.
A broad subtropical ridge is situated north of 22W. This system is expected to track in a W to WNW direction along the southern periphery of the ridge.
一個廣闊的副熱帶高壓脊正處於 22W 北面，預料 22W 將沿該脊南部向西或西北偏西移動。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
22W is expected to intensify gradually in warm seas.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS 22W 將於溫暖的海水中逐步增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
22W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
00 HKT, 2009/10/16 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
N/A 沒有資料
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
N/A 沒有資料
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
N/A 沒有資料
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
