01W will move west in the next 12 hours in an easterly airstream that prevails in the region.
在偏東氣流影響下，01W 將於未來 12 小時向西移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24 HRS
01W's low-level circulation centre is fully exposed and is difficult to track in IR imagery. The storm will enter very cool seas (23 degrees) which will further weaken the system. Dissipation is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours.
01W is under very weak steering that causes the storm to remain stationary. The storm is expected to move west very slowly in an easterly airstream.
作用於 01W 的外力非常弱，令其幾乎停留不動。在偏東氣流下，01W 將非常緩慢地向西移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS
01W still lacks organization and convections are displaced to the north. Sea temperatures are decreasing due to the northeast monsoon, and 01W is not expected to strengthen as it nears southern Vietnam.
01W has been moving west in the past 24 hours and slowed down significantly today. At 20 HKT, 01W was centred about 640 km (340 NM) E of Ho Chi Minh City.
The ridge over Indochina is weakening, but is expected to maintain certain influence that may cause 01W to lose latitude in the short run. Weakening of the ridge also means that steering force diminishes and 01W will be slow moving in the next few days.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS
01W's low-level circulation centre becomes clearer but is still disorganized. The storm may intensify very slightly in the short run as divergence develops to the north but neither shear nor sea temperature looks promising.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS
01W 地層環流中心比昨晚清晰，但仍欠組織。01W 或受惠北面良好輻散而稍為增強，但現時水溫和風切皆不利其發展。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
01W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2012/02/19 (Sun 日) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
A tropical disturbance in South China Sea has intensified into tropical depression 01W. At 20 HKT, 01W was centred about 900 km (490 NM) E of Ho Chi Minh City.
01W is moving west in the southern periphery of a high pressure cell near Hainan Island. Some numerical forecasts have been consistently calling for a rapid deceleration and abrupt turn to the north in response to a weakening ridge. Our first bulletin predicts that a W/WNW motion will persist until t+36, and northward track component will become more significant later on.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
Flaring convections are seen to the north of storm centre, but clouds near the centre are disorganized. The storm is expected to pick up some intensity as it is currently situated in an area of low shear and acceptable sea temperatures (27 degrees). 01W should begin weakening as seas are appreciably cooler to the west and shear will increase as the storm moves north.
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
