GUCHOL is now crossing Japan. At 20 HKT, GUCHOL was centred about 210 km (110 NM) WSW of Tokyo.
古超正橫過日本。在下午 8 時，古超集結在東京西南偏西約 210 公里 (110
海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
GUCHOL is the 135th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Micronesia, and is a Yapese name for the spice turmeric. This name was last used in 2005.
GUCHOL will move NE to NNE along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, and later turn to E or ENE as it reaches the northern side of the ridge.
古超將沿副熱帶高壓脊西北面向東北至東北偏北移動，隨後到達該脊北面，移向將轉為東或東北偏東。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24 HRS
GUCHOL's extratropical transition has begun and is expected to finish in 12 to 24 hours.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24 HRS
古超已開始溫帶氣旋轉化，預料於 12 至 24 小時內完成。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
古超於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
This is the final bulletin on GUCHOL.
這是本站對古超的最後一次發佈。
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
N/A 不適用
Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告
(請按發佈編號顯示內容)
GUCHOL is the 135th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Micronesia, and is a Yapese name for the spice turmeric. This name was last used in 2005.
GUCHOL is expected to move NNE to NE rapidly towards central Japan. The storm is expected to turn to ENE or E as it moves to the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
Current T-number: T5.0/5.5/W1.5/24 HRS
GUCHOL is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The storm will weaken in cool seas and extratropical transition is expected between t+60 and t+72.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.5/W1.5/24 HRS
古超正處於眼牆置換週期，預料它將於較冷的海水中減弱，並於約 60 至 72 小時後完成溫帶氣旋轉化。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
古超於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/06/19 (Tue 二) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
GUCHOL is the 135th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Micronesia, and is a Yapese name for the spice turmeric. This name was last used in 2005.
GUCHOL will recurve along the western periphery of a rigid subtropical ridge, which will bring the storm towards central to southern Japan.
古超將沿副熱帶高壓脊西部轉向，大致趨向日本中南部。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T6.5/6.5/S0.0/24 HRS
GUCHOL's strength has been stable in the past 24 hours. The storm is expected to weaken as it travels north due to cooler seas, and extratropical transition will begin at around t+60 to t+72.
GUCHOL has rapidly intensified into a category 4 typhoon. At 20 HKT, GUCHOL was centred about 840 km (450 NM) E of Manila.
古超急速增強為四級颱風。在下午 8 時，古超集結在馬尼拉以東約 840 公里 (450
海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
GUCHOL is the 135th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Micronesia, and is a Yapese name for the spice turmeric. This name was last used in 2005.
GUCHOL is now situated in the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. It will move NW turning to N along the western side of the ridge, and finally recurve to the NE towards southern Japan.
古超處於副熱帶高壓脊西南沿，預料它將於副高西面向西北轉北移動，最終轉向東北並趨向日本南部。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24 HRS
The storm intensified much more than expected with a well-defined eye of around 50 NM big appearing within GUCHOL's central dense overcast, where surrounding cloud top temperatures are below -70 degrees. Ambient environment is still favourable for intensification into a category 5 super typhoon, but this will not last long as sea temperatures start to drop north of 20°N. The storm will weaken at higher latitudes and transform into an extratropical cyclone after 5 days.
GUCHOL is the 135th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Micronesia, and is a Yapese name for the spice turmeric. This name was last used in 2005.
GUCHOL has moved to the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The storm is expected to take on an increasingly poleward track across the Philippine Sea, and recurve along the western side of the ridge.
古超已移至副熱帶高壓脊西南沿。預料古超路徑的北向量將逐漸增加，橫過菲律賓海，並沿副高西面轉向。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
GUCHOL will intensify in warm seas but moderate shear is expected to slow down intensification a bit. The storm will reach peak strength at around t+48.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
古超將於溫暖海水中繼續增強，但中等風切或會令增強速度減慢。預料古超將於 48 小時後到達巔峰強度。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
古超於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/06/16 (Sat 六) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
GUCHOL has intensified into a severe tropical storm while maintaining its westward motion. At 20 HKT, GUCHOL was centred about 1360 km (740 NM) ESE of Manila.
GUCHOL is the 135th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Micronesia, and is a Yapese name for the spice turmeric. This name was last used in 2005.
The ridge is still intact north of GUCHOL that accounts for its persistent westward movement in the past 24 hours. However the ridge's western end remains at just west of 130°E, and GUCHOL is expected to turn NW sharply as it reaches that longitude and proceed northward along the western edge of the ridge.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
GUCHOL has established a central dense overcast and is intensifying steadily. Typhoon strength is expected to be reached soon but increased shear will likely slow down intensification after t+36.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
古超的中央密集雲區已形成，該風暴正穩定增強。預料古超即將增強為颱風，但較高風切將於約 36 小時後開始令古超的增強速度放緩。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
古超於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/06/15 (Fri 五) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
GUCHOL is now moving WNW. At 20 HKT, GUCHOL was centred about 120 km (65 NM) N of Yap.
古超正向西北偏西移動。在下午 8 時，古超集結在雅蒲島以北約 120 公里 (65
海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
GUCHOL is the 135th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Micronesia, and is a Yapese name for the spice turmeric. This name was last used in 2005.
GUCHOL is expected to move WNW turning gradually to NNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge towards seas east of Taiwan.
古超將沿副熱帶高壓脊西南部向西北偏西轉西北偏北移動，長遠趨向台灣以東海域。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
GUCHOL's convections have become more organized since last night. Under favourable shear and sea temperatures GUCHOL will gradually intensify in the next 48 to 72 hours.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
古超的環流變得更有組織。在較低風切和高海溫的環境下古超將於預測期內逐漸增強。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
古超於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/06/14 (Thu 四) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
GUCHOL is the 135th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Micronesia, and is a Yapese name for the spice turmeric. This name was last used in 2005.
The subtropical ridge is firmly established north of GUCHOL. The storm is expected to move WNW in the next 48 hours, after which poleward track component will increase as the storm approaches the ridge's southwestern periphery.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS
GUCHOL is small in size and convections are picking up. Under favourable shear and sea temperatures GUCHOL will gradually intensify over the forecast period.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS
古超尺度較小，其環流開始發展。在低風切和較高海溫的環境下古超將於預測期內逐漸增強。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
古超於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/06/13 (Wed 三) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
The subtropical ridge is situated north of 05W. The cyclone is expected to move WNW along its southern periphery in the next 72 hours.
副熱帶高壓脊正處於 05W 以北，預料 05W 將於未來 72 小時沿該脊南部向西北偏西移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T1.5/1.5/INT OBS
Seas near 05W are close to 30 degrees Celsius and shear is light, but divergence is rather weak. 05W will intensify gradually in a generally acceptable environment.
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
