KAI-TAK has weakened into a tropical storm. At 08 HKT, KAI-TAK was centred about 90 km (45 NM) NNW of Hanoi.
啟德已減弱為熱帶風暴。在上午 8 時,啟德集結在河內西北偏北約 90 公里 (45 海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
KAI-TAK is the fourth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of the old airport in operation until 1998. This name was used in 2000 and 2005, the first of which necessitated the Standby Signal.
KAI-TAK made landfall near Zhanjiang at noon, and is now making its final landfall at northern Vietnam. At 20 HKT, KAI-TAK was centred about 640 km (350 NM) W of Hong Kong. All tropical cyclone warning signals were cancelled at 16:25 HKT.
KAI-TAK is the fourth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of the old airport in operation until 1998. This name was used in 2000 and 2005, the first of which necessitated the Standby Signal.
KAI-TAK is moving WNW steadily. At 02 HKT, KAI-TAK was centred about 260 km (140 NM) SSW of Hong Kong. The Observatory issued the No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal at 22:15 HKT yesterday.
KAI-TAK is the fourth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of the old airport in operation until 1998. This name was used in 2000 and 2005, the first of which necessitated the Standby Signal.
KAI-TAK is expected to move WNW along the southern to southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, and will gradually turn west as it nears southern China.
預料啟德將沿副熱帶高壓脊南至西南部向西北偏西移動,靠近華南沿岸,其後轉以偏西路徑推進。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
KAI-TAK should intensify slightly as it tracks across seas with high temperatures and in a low shear environment. Weakening will occur once KAI-TAK makes landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
在高海溫和低風切的環境下,預料啟德將稍為增強,登陸後開始減弱。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
KAI-TAK is now closest to Hong Kong with local wind direction turning to the southeast. Strong to gale force winds will continue to affect the territory in the next couple of hours. As KAI-TAK moves away, winds will weaken near sunrise.
KAI-TAK has intensified into a typhoon as it moves WNW across the South China Sea. At 20 HKT, KAI-TAK was centred about 280 km (150 NM) S of Hong Kong. The Observatory issued the Strong Wind Signal at 13:40 HKT, and indicated that a higher signal will be issued by 22:15 HKT the latest.
KAI-TAK is the fourth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of the old airport in operation until 1998. This name was used in 2000 and 2005, the first of which necessitated the Standby Signal.
The subtropical ridge remains stronger than expected and extended deep into central China. KAI-TAK is expected to move WNW along the ridge's south to southwestern periphery, and will gradually turn westwards as it nears southern China.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
KAI-TAK has developed a central dense overcast but convections are more concentrated in its southern semicircle. At high sea temperatures and low shear the storm will intensify until it makes landfall at western Guangdong.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
啟德發展出中心密集雲區,但對流集中於其南半圓。在高海溫和低風切的環境下,預料啟德將繼續增強,直至登陸廣東西部為止。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Strong easterly winds are currently observed in most areas and gales are affecting offshore stations. Winds will continue to strengthen as KAI-TAK makes its closest approach later tonight and wind direction will gradually turn to the southeast. There are relatively few rainbands to the north of KAI-TAK and showers should not be too heavy.
KAI-TAK made landfall briefly at northern Luzon earlier today, and has now entered the South China Sea. At 20 HKT, KAI-TAK was centred about 680 km (370 NM) ESE of Hong Kong. The Observatory issued the Standby Signal at 20:10 HKT.
KAI-TAK is the fourth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of the old airport in operation until 1998. This name was used in 2000 and 2005, the first of which necessitated the Standby Signal.
The subtropical ridge has extended westwards into central China. KAI-TAK is expected to move WNW along the ridge's southwestern periphery, and will gradually turn westwards as it nears southern China.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
The brief landfall did not significantly affect KAI-TAK's intensity. The storm will travel through a pool of warm waters (around 30 degrees) with decreased shear. Moderate intensification is expected until landfall, after which rapid weakening will follow.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
短暫登陸未有大幅影響啟德的強度。預料啟德將經過溫暖的洋面 (約 30 度),區內風切已經下降,啟德將能逐漸增強直至登陸,隨後快速減弱。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
As KAI-TAK approaches, local weather will deteriorate tomorrow with winds strengthening from the northeast. According to the present forecast, KAI-TAK is expected to be closest to Hong Kong in early Friday. Expect squally showers in the next two days.
KAI-TAK is the fourth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of the old airport in operation until 1998. This name was used in 2000 and 2005, the first of which necessitated the Standby Signal.
KAI-TAK is still under the influence of the subtropical ridge to its northeast. However, the northwestward turn earlier predicted has not yet taken place. The subtropical ridge is expected to be slightly weakened by some arriving troughs, which would lead to a WNW to NW track into the South China Sea. After that the ridge should re-intensify and produce a more westwards motion.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
Moderate wind shear and restricted divergence to its northeast are limiting KAI-TAK's development. There is now an increasing likelihood that KAI-TAK will skirt or even make landfall at northeastern Luzon, which will cause a temporary halt to intensification. Conditions inside South China Sea remain favourable, and KAI-TAK should intensify before making landfall at southeastern China.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
中等的垂直風切變及東北面的較弱幅散令啟德強度受限制。按照目前情況,啟德將有較高機會掠過甚至登陸呂宋東北角,期間風暴將難以增強。南海環境仍然良好,預料啟德仍能將於登陸中國東南部前增強。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Weather will be very hot tomorrow as KAI-TAK's subsidence affects Hong Kong. Winds will strengthen on Thursday and Friday as KAI-TAK moves closer, but exact effect will depend on KAI-TAK's movement which carries high uncertainty at this point.
KAI-TAK is the fourth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of the old airport in operation until 1998. This name was used in 2000 and 2005, the first of which necessitated the Standby Signal.
The current forecast calls for a slight retreat of the western extension of the subtropical ridge that will lead to a NW movement, followed by a re-intensification that makes KAI-TAK travel westwards as it approaches southeastern China.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS
KAI-TAK's convections are sheared to its west, but spiraling structure maintains. Intensification is expected as the storm travels through warm seas, although the rate will likely be hampered by the moderate shear and proximity to landmass as KAI-TAK makes its way through the Luzon Strait.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS
啟德的對流向西切離,但整體旋捲性仍能維持。偏高的海溫將有利啟德增強,但受制於中等垂直風切變和經過呂宋海峽時靠近陸地,這或會減慢啟德的增強速度。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Weather will be very hot on Wednesday as KAI-TAK's subsidence affects Hong Kong. Winds will likely strengthen on Thursday and Friday as KAI-TAK moves closer. This is subject to KAI-TAK's exact track which carries high uncertainty at this moment.
Tropical disturbance 93W east of the Philippines has intensified into tropical depression 14W. At 20 HKT, 14W was centred about 950 km (520 NM) ENE of Manila.
The subtropical ridge is anchored NE of 14W. 14W is expected to move WNW initially but its track should turn more poleward after t+48 as the ridge extends at lower latitudes.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
14W is showing promising spiraling characteristics. With favourable sea temperatures (around 29 degrees) and low to moderate shear, 14W is expected to intensify gradually in the next 72 hours.