JELAWAT is the eighth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning Sultan fish. This name was used in 2000 and 2006, with the last one necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.
JELAWAT is the eighth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning Sultan fish. This name was used in 2000 and 2006, with the last one necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.
JELAWAT is expected to accelerate towards the northeast along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
杰拉華將沿副熱帶高壓脊西北面向東北加速移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T4.5/5.5/W1.0/24 HRS
JELAWAT's eye becomes cloud-filled. As the storm enters high shear area, it is expected to weaken in the rest of the forecast period. Extratropical transition should occur at around t+48.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/5.5/W1.0/24 HRS
杰拉華的風眼開始被雲層覆蓋。隨著風暴進入高風切區，預料它將會於餘下時間繼續減弱。杰拉華將於約兩天後轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
杰拉華於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
2012/09/30 (Sun 日), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
JELAWAT has started to recurve. At 08 HKT, JELAWAT was centred about 370 km (200 NM) SE of Taipei.
杰拉華開始轉向。在上午 8 時，杰拉華集結在台北東南約 370 公里 (200 海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
JELAWAT is the eighth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning Sultan fish. This name was used in 2000 and 2006, with the last one necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.
JELAWAT is now at the western edge of the subtropical ridge, and will recurve to the northeast along the ridge's northwestern periphery.
杰拉華現時於副熱帶高壓脊西端，預料將沿其西北面轉向東北。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T5.5/6.0/W1.0/24 HRS
JELAWAT has started its weakening trend as ocean heat content drops. JELAWAT will continue to weaken and extratropical transition is expected to occur between t+72 and t+96.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/6.0/W1.0/24 HRS
海洋熱含量下降令杰拉華開始減弱，預料減弱趨勢將持續，杰拉華將於三至四天後轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
杰拉華於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
2012/09/29 (Sat 六), near noon 接近中午 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
JELAWAT is the eighth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning Sultan fish. This name was used in 2000 and 2006, with the last one necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.
JELAWAT will soon reach the subtropical ridge axis and is expected to recurve along its western periphery. The storm is expected to accelerate as it enters the westerlies.
Current T-number: T6.5/6.5/S0.0/24 HRS
JELAWAT maintained a large eye without significant signs of weakening in the past 24 hours. As JELAWAT recurves, it will reach cooler seas and weakening should become more apparent in the next 48 hours. Extratropical transition is expected to occur between t+96 and t+120.
現時的 T 號碼: T6.5/6.5/S0.0/24 HRS
杰拉華風眼較大，仍未有明顯減弱跡象。隨著杰拉華轉向，它將到達較冷的海域，減弱趨勢將於未來 48 小時變得明顯。預料杰拉華於四至五天後轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
杰拉華於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
2012/09/28 (Fri 五), near noon 接近中午 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
JELAWAT is the eighth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning Sultan fish. This name was used in 2000 and 2006, with the last one necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.
JELAWAT is expected to move NW under the influence of the subtropical ridge to its east and continental ridge to its north. The weakness will not be completely covered though, and as another trough arrives JELAWAT will recurve along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge.
Current T-number: T6.5/7.0/W0.5/24 HRS
JELAWAT's eyewall cloud top temperature has increased and the storm is showing signs of entering an eyewall replacement cycle. JELAWAT is expected to weaken gradually on its way north.
現時的 T 號碼: T6.5/7.0/W0.5/24 HRS
杰拉華的眼牆雲頂溫度有所上升，並有跡象進入眼牆置換週期。預料杰拉華將於北上時逐漸減弱。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
杰拉華於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
2012/09/27 (Thu 四), near noon 接近中午 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
JELAWAT is the eighth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning Sultan fish. This name was used in 2000 and 2006, with the last one necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.
JELAWAT is moving N along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. This ridge is expected to extend westwards and JELAWAT will start to move NW from t+24. However, the ridge extension is not expected to be strong and JELAWAT should be able to escape from the weakness and round the ridge to complete the recurvature near Taiwan.
Current T-number: T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24 HRS
JELAWAT's eye is well defined with a wide central dense overcast. The storm is expected to peak at current intensity and will weaken as it travels into a region with lower ocean heat content.
現時的 T 號碼: T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24 HRS
杰拉華的風眼明顯，中心密集雲區廣闊。杰拉華應已到達其最高強度，並將於到達較低海洋熱含量的區域時減弱。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
杰拉華於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
2012/09/26 (Wed 三), near noon 接近中午 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
JELAWAT is the eighth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning Sultan fish. This name was used in 2000 and 2006, with the last one necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.
The subtropical ridge north of JELAWAT is being eroded by the mid-latitude trough and the storm is situated within a pressure col. JELAWAT is expected to drift NNW in the next 12 to 24 hours in the absence of significant steering influence, and later on the ridge is expected to extend westwards again and provide northward track component to JELAWAT. There is considerable uncertainty regarding forecasts beyond t+72 on the strength of the subtropical ridge, and the current forecast calls for a moderate extension that will allow JELAWAT to move NW towards Taiwan.
Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS
JELAWAT has developed an eye and explosive intensification appears to be taking place. The storm is expected to intensify rapidly in the next 24 to 48 hours and will stay strong until at least t+72. As JELAWAT travels north, the drop in ocean heat content will cause the storm to weaken.
JELAWAT is the eighth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning Sultan fish. This name was used in 2000 and 2006, with the last one necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.
The mid-latitude trough is eroding the subtropical ridge north of JELAWAT and as a result the storm has slowed down considerably in the past 24 hours. The ridge will retreat further and JELAWAT is expected to drift slowly in the next 24 hours. After the passage of the trough, the subtropical ridge should re-strengthen and extend westwards, providing a northwestward track component to JELAWAT. The extended forecast is based on the possibility of a strengthening ridge in eastern China that will become the primary steering force and cause the storm to move more equatorward.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
JELAWAT's spiraling characteristics have improved. The storm is in an region of low shear, high sea temperatures and excellent outflow, and is expected to intensify gradually as conditions remain favourable over the forecast period. In the current scenario, JELAWAT may weaken briefly when it edges closer to Luzon.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
杰拉華的旋捲性轉好。由於風暴一帶風切低、海溫高而輻散良好，且此有利狀況將有望維持，預料杰拉華將於預測期內逐漸增強。在現時的路徑預測中，杰拉華將於預測後期靠近呂宋，屆時強度或會稍為減弱。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
杰拉華於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
2012/09/23 (Sun 日), near noon 接近中午 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
The tropical disturbance east of the Philippines has gradually intensified into tropical storm 18W, and was named JELAWAT. At 08 HKT, JELAWAT was centred about 1080 km (590 NM) E of Manila.
JELAWAT is the eighth name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning Sultan fish. This name was used in 2000 and 2006, with the last one necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.
The broad subtropical ridge north of JELAWAT has been guiding the storm towards the WSW in the past 12 hours. It is expected that a mid-latitude trough propagating in northern China will severely erode the ridge, and render the storm almost motionless by t+48. As the ridge retreats, JELAWAT should pick up latitude gradually. The ridge is expected to extend westwards again towards the later taus and this allows JELAWAT to maintain a northwestward motion through t+120.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/INT OBS
JELAWAT is in an region of low shear, high sea temperatures and excellent outflow. The storm is expected to intensify gradually as conditions remain favourable over the entire forecast period.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/INT OBS
杰拉華一帶風切低、海溫高而輻散良好。由於此有利狀況將維持，預料杰拉華將於預測期內逐漸增強。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
杰拉華於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
2012/09/22 (Sat 六), near noon 接近中午 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
