Bookmark and Share

TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Selected TC Review / 重要熱帶氣旋回顧 > 201308W (CIMARON 西馬侖) [Refresh 更新]

201308W (CIMARON 西馬侖) - Profile 檔案

(First draft issued on July 30, 2013; final version issued on August 7, 2013)
(初稿於 2013 年 7 月 30 日發出,最後版本於 2013 年 8 月 7 日上載)

Brief profile of CIMARON 西馬侖小檔案:

JTWC number 聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC) 號碼 08W
International number 國際編號 1308
Period of existence 生存時期 (JTWC) 2013/07/16 02 HKT - 2013/07/18 20 HKT
Lifetime 壽命 (JTWC) 2.75 days 日
Maximum 1-minute wind (JTWC) JTWC 一分鐘平均最高中心風速 40 knots 節 (Tropical Storm 熱帶風暴)
Minimum pressure (JTWC) JTWC 最低氣壓 993 hPa 百帕
Highest TC signal by HKO (if applicable)
香港天文台發出最高熱帶氣旋警告信號
1 (Standby Signal 戒備信號)
Closest point of approach by HKO (if applicable)
香港天文台所示之最接近距離 (如適用)
E 390 km (real-time warning 實時報告 / TC report 熱帶氣旋報告)
Time of closest approach by HKO (if applicable)
香港天文台所示之最接近時間 (如適用)
Around 約 2013/07/18 12 HKT (real-time warning 實時報告 / TC report 熱帶氣旋報告)
Lowest pressure recorded at HKO (if applicable)
香港天文台錄得的最低氣壓 (如適用)
1003.8 hPa 百帕 (2013/07/18 15:40 HKT)

TC signals for Hong Kong & Track 香港曾經生效的熱帶氣旋警告和路徑圖:

Table 表:

Signal
信號
Date and time
日期和時間
Distance from HK
與香港的距離
Predicted movement
預測移動方向和速度
Max. 10-min winds
中心最高十分鐘平均風速
2013/07/17 (WED) 23:20 HKT ESE 640 km NW at 20 km/h 65 km/h (35 knots, TS)
2013/07/18 (THU) 15:40 HKT ENE 400 km NNW at 22 km/h 65 km/h (35 knots, TS)

Figure 圖:

(Track courtesy of Lorenzo. Data from HKO. 鳴謝 Lorenzo 提供路徑圖,資料取自天文台)

TC Track

Percentile Ranks 百分等級:

Percentile ranks are only available for cyclones that necessitated at least the No. 3 Strong Wind Signal. 百分等級只適用於曾令天文台發出三號強風信號 (或更高) 的熱帶氣旋。

IR imagery animation 紅外線雲圖動畫:

TC track from HKWW 本站的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC Track

TC track from HKO 天文台的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC Track

Past HKWW Bulletins on CIMARON 本站有關西馬侖的發佈

Please click here for bulletins on CIMARON. 請按這裡

Storm Formation and Development 氣旋形成和發展

Unless otherwise stated, all times below are in Hong Kong Standard Time (UTC+8)
除非特別註明,下文時間均為香港標準時間 (協調世界時加 8 小時)

A blob of convections east of the Philippines developed into tropical depression 08W on July 16. The subtropical ridge was not particularly strong at that time, and the variability in its future strength led to divergent predictions among different numerical models from making landfall near Hong Kong to crossing Taiwan. The JTWC depicted a recurvature scenario with 08W turning north in Taiwan Strait, which was a rather rare situation in July.

The HKO upgraded 08W into a tropical depression near noon that day, and again the initial track forecast put the storm very close to western Taiwan. The storm generally moved NW during the day, but could not maintain its deep convections - clouds kept forming and dissipating which added difficulty to tracking its centre.

Due to its considerable northward track component, 08W was able to avoid the most hilly Luzon mountains. However, it still made landfall at Luzon's northeastern tip in the morning of July 17. At the same time, the JMA upgraded 08W into a tropical storm and assigned the name CIMARON, which was contributed by the Philippines and is the name of a type of Philippine wild ox. It should be mentioned that the last storm associated with this name (2006) became a super typhoon and devastated parts of the country, and also led to a Standby Signal in Hong Kong.

CIMARON entered the Luzon Strait soon afterwards and entered the 800-km circle in the afternoon. No significant development took place.

菲律賓以東的對流爆發於 7 月 16 日發展為熱帶低氣壓 08W。風暴形成時,副熱帶高壓脊並不特別強,其往後強度變化的不確定性令各數值預報模式給出截然不同的路徑預測,西至登陸香港一帶,東至橫過台灣也有。JTWC 預計 08W 將於台灣海峽轉向,此情況於 7 月並不常見。

天文台於當天中午時份升格 08W 為熱帶低氣壓,初始預報亦是預料系統於台灣西部近海通過。08W 當天大致向西北移動,但不能有效保留深層對流,雲帶不斷發展消亡,增加定位的難度。

由於 08W 移向較北,它避過呂宋島上最高的山脈,但仍然於 17 日早上擦過呂宋東北角。與此同時,JMA 將 08W 升格為熱帶風暴,並命名為西馬侖。此名字由菲律賓提供,為當地一種野牛的名稱。值得一提的是對上一個被命名為西馬侖的風暴 (2006) 發展至超級颱風強度並對菲律賓部分地區造成嚴重破壞,隨後令天文台發出一號戒備信號。

掠過呂宋後不久,西馬侖進入南海並於下午闖進本港 800 公里警戒範圍。風暴並沒有明顯發展。

Figure 1 - CIMARON at formation
圖 1 - 西馬侖初形成時之衛星雲圖

Figure 2 - Steering flow chart at 2 pm, July 17
圖 2 - 7 月 17 日下午 2 時之駛流場圖

Figure 3 - Initial forecast tracks from various agencies
圖 3 - 各氣象台之初始預報路徑

Crossing South China Sea and Landfall at Fujian 橫過南海並登陸福建

Most agencies shifted their forecasts westwards on July 17 by removing the later poleward kink and depicted landfall close to Shantou, in response to CIMARON's quick movement towards the NW. The Observatory issued the #1 Standby Signal at 11:20 pm, mostly as a precautionary measure since it would require a storm to be very close to Hong Kong in order to necessitate higher signals, given its current location and projected landfall east of Hong Kong. As a result, the Observatory mentioned in various bulletins that the chance of a higher signal was not high.

CIMARON's convections became very disorganized in the next 12 hours; deep convections bursted irregularly around the circulation centre. It became very difficult to track its centre with wide spread in even the current position. The Observatory made substantial relocation in the morning of July 18 as visible imageries became available, creating the illusion that CIMARON moved more than 100 km in two hours. This also made CIMARON much closer to Hong Kong, at a distance of only 400 km, although still not quite close to necessitate higher signals.

Perhaps the only reliable method to track CIMARON's centre was through China's radar images, which clearly showed that CIMARON had turned north. However most agencies, including the JMA, JTWC and CWB, failed to recognize this change in direction and continued to track the system towards the NW/NNW.

Due to the northward turn, CIMARON maintained a considerable distance with Hong Kong and the point of closest approach was reached near noon on July 18. The Standby Signal was cancelled at 3:40 pm as CIMARON no longer posed a threat to the territory. The storm eventually made landfall at Zhangpu, Fujian at around 8:30 pm that night as a minimal tropical storm. Due to its small size and low intensity, CIMARON quickly degenerated into an area of low pressure near Xiamen the next morning.

由於西馬侖快速向西北移動,大多數氣象台於 17 日將其預測移動路徑西調,去掉原先預計的北折,登陸點移至汕頭一帶。天文台於當晚 11 時 20 分發出一號戒備信號。由於在香港東面登陸的熱帶氣旋需要非常接近本港才有需要改發更高信號,此戒備信號純屬預警性質。天文台亦多次於其發佈中表示改發更高信號的機會不大。

隨後 12 小時西馬侖的對流變得非常散亂,深層對流在旋轉中心周圍不規則地爆發,這令定位變得艱難,而各台對其現時位置存在很大分歧。晨光到來令可見光雲圖再度派上用場,這使天文台大幅修訂西馬侖的位置並造成兩小時內移動超過 100 公里的假象 [1] [2]。重新定位後西馬侖變得更為靠近本港,距離只有 400 公里,但這仍然不足以需要發出更高信號。

能有效追蹤西馬侖位置的工具只剩下中國氣象台的雷達圖,它顯示西馬侖已經轉向偏北移動。但是,大多數氣象台包括 JMA、JTWC 及 CWB 均未有察覺此改變,並繼續將風暴定為向西北至西北偏北移動。

由於風暴突然轉北,它始終於香港保持一段距離,並於 18 日約中午最為接近香港。確定西馬侖的威脅解除後,天文台於下午 3 時 40 分取消一號戒備信號。西馬侖最終於當晚 8 時 30 分以熱帶風暴下限強度在福建漳浦一帶登陸。由於西馬侖尺度小且強度低,它於翌日早上在廈門一帶快速減弱為低壓區

Figure 4 - Wind field chart at around 9 pm on July 17
圖 4 - 7 月 17 日約下午 9 時之風場圖

Figure 5 - CIMARON appeared disorganized as it crossed northern South China Sea
圖 5 - 西馬侖橫過南海北部時結構散亂

Figure 6 - Animated radar image which shows CIMARON had been moving north on July 18
圖 6 - 雷達圖動畫顯示西馬侖於 7 月 18 日北移

Figure 7 - Only HKO and CMA could capture CIMARON's actual movement
圖 7 - 只有天文台及中國氣象台正確捕捉西馬侖的真實移動方向

Figure 8 - JMA apparently correcting its previous erroneous fix
圖 8 - JMA 看似改正先前錯誤的風暴定位

Winds Recorded at Reference Stations 參考站所錄得的風速

(Except for special cases, this section is not available for cyclones that only necessitated the Standby Signal 除非特別情況,否則此部只當氣旋令天文台發出三號或更高信號時提供)

Charts and Figures 各項數據

Table 1: Track data from HKWW:
表一 : 香港天氣觀測站之路徑資料

YYMMDDZZ Lat Long Wind
13071518 148N1250E 025
13071600 151N1249E 030
13071606 156N1242E 030
13071612 163N1237E 030
13071618 171N1229E 035
13071700 185N1220E 035
13071706 194N1212E 040
13071712 202N1203E 040
13071718 213N1187E 040
13071800 220N1180E 040
13071806 230N1179E 040
13071812 239N1179E 040
13071818 248N1178E 035
13071900 252N1177E 025

Table 2: Maximum gust and hourly average wind speed recorded in Hong Kong from HKO:
表二 : 香港天文台公佈的各站最高每小時平均風力和陣風數據

Station Maximum Gust Maximum Hourly Mean Wind
Direction Speed (km/h) Date/Month Time Direction Speed (km/h) Date/Month Time
Bluff Head (Stanley) E 30 18/7 12:09 E 16 18/7 00:00
Central Pier E 34 18/7 14:19 E 20 18/7 15:00
Cheung Chau SE 40 18/7 13:08 SE 23 18/7 14:00
Cheung Chau Beach E 36 17/7 23:34 E 25 18/7 00:00
Green Island NE 54 18/7 12:28 NE 36 18/7 13:00
Hong Kong International Airport ESE 31 18/7 14:34 ESE 22 18/7 00:00
Kai Tak ESE 40 18/7 11:34 ESE 16 18/7 13:00
King's Park  ESE 27 18/7 12:02 SE 12 18/7 13:00
Lau Fau Shan ESE 27 18/7 13:29 ENE 14 18/7 00:00
          E 14 18/7 15:00
Ngong Ping E 68 18/7 00:45 E 49 18/7 00:00
North Point E 31 18/7 11:40 E 16 18/7 14:00
Peng Chau ESE 31 18/7 12:26 ESE 22 18/7 13:00
  ESE 31 18/7 12:32        
Ping Chau ENE 13  18/7 11:15 NNW 4 18/7 10:00
Sai Kung  E 27 18/7 11:45 E 12 18/7 13:00
Sha Chau SE 34  18/7 13:34 SE 25 18/7 14:00
  SE 34  18/7 13:37        
  SSE 34  18/7 13:41        
Sha Lo Wan ESE 30 18/7 13:45 E 14 18/7 00:00
Sha Tin NNE 22 18/7 12:47 NNE 9 18/7 10:00
Star Ferry (Kowloon) E 31 18/7 14:34 E 20 18/7 14:00
Ta Kwu Ling  SE 23 18/7 14:37 ESE 9 18/7 15:00
Tai Mei Tuk NE 27 18/7 00:27 ESE 16 18/7 15:00
Tai Mo Shan ESE 70 17/7 23:22 ESE 58 18/7 00:00
Tai Po Kau SE 27 18/7 13:43 ESE 16 18/7 15:00
  SE 27 18/7 13:55        
Tap Mun SE 22 18/7 13:13 SE 13 18/7 14:00
Tate's Cairn  SE 41 18/7 00:28 SE 30 18/7 01:00
Tseung Kwan O NE 25 18/7 10:36 NNE 12 18/7 11:00
Tsing Yi Shell Oil Depot E 27 18/7 11:52 ESE 13 18/7 14:00
Tuen Mun Government Offices SE 31 18/7 13:25 SSE 14 18/7 15:00
Waglan Island ENE 30 18/7 02:11 ENE 20 18/7 03:00
  ENE 30 18/7 02:12        
Wetland Park ESE 31 18/7 13:53 ESE 12 18/7 15:00
Wong Chuk Hang ENE 34 18/7 10:22 E 16 18/7 11:00

Table 3: Rainfall (in millimetres) contributed by CIMARON from HKO (figures in brackets are based on incomplete hourly data):
表三 : 香港天文台公佈的各站雨量資料 (方括號內之數據由不完整之每小時資料擷取)

Station
18-Jul
Total(mm)
Hong Kong Observatory
0.5
0.5
Hong Kong International Airport (HKA)
0.0
0.0
Cheung Chau (CCH)
1.0
1.0
N05 Fanling
0.5
0.5
N13 High Island
0.5
0.5
K04 Jordan Valley
0.5
0.5
N06 Kwai Chung
0.0
0.0
H12 Mid Levels
0.5
0.5
N09 Sha Tin
1.0
1.0
H19 Shau Kei Wan
1.0
1.0
SEK Shek Kong
0.5
0.5
K06 So Uk Estate
0.5
0.5
R31 Tai Mei Tuk
1.0
1.0
R21 Tap Shek Kok
0.0
0.0
N17 Tung Chung
0.0
0.0
R27 Yuen Long
0.0
0.0

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Fri Nov 15 2019 05:23:56 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Tue Jan 31 2017

觀看訪客統計報表 Web Traffic Statistics

Statistics