KALMAEGI made landfall at northern Vietnam last night and is now crossing the country. At 8 am, KALMAEGI was centred about 180 km (95 NM) NW of Hanoi. All tropical cyclone signals were cancelled at 2:10 am.
KALMAEGI is approaching northeastern Hainan. At 8 am, KALMAEGI was centred about 390 km (210 NM) SW of Hong Kong.
海鷗正靠近海南東北部。在上午 8 時， 海鷗集結在香港西南約 390 公里 (210 海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
KALMAEGI is the 59th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by North Korea, meaning seagull. This name was used in 2002 and 2008.
海鷗為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 59 個名字，由北韓提供。此名曾於 2002 及 2008 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
KALMAEGI is expected to move WNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge towards Qiongzhou Strait and northern Vietnam.
海鷗將繼續沿副熱帶高壓脊西南部向西北偏西移動，趨向瓊州海峽及越南北部。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24 HRS
KALMAEGI has intensified slightly over the past 6 hours. The storm is expected to weaken as it crosses the Gulf of Tonkin, and at a quicker pace upon landfall at northern Vietnam.
海鷗於過去 6 小時略為增強。預料風暴會於橫過北部灣時減弱，登陸越南北部後減弱速度會加快。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Winds in various places appear to weaken, but gales are still affecting southern parts of Hong Kong. As KALMAEGI retreats, winds will continue to subside although squally showers will continue to affect the territory.
KALMAEGI is moving rapidly across the South China Sea. At 2 am, KALMAEGI was centred about 360 km (190 NM) SSW of Hong Kong. The #8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal was issued at 10:30 pm last night.
KALMAEGI is the 59th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by North Korea, meaning seagull. This name was used in 2002 and 2008.
海鷗為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 59 個名字，由北韓提供。此名曾於 2002 及 2008 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
KALMAEGI has resumed its WNW track. It is expected to move WNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge towards Qiongzhou Strait and northern Vietnam.
海鷗已回復其西北偏西路徑，預料將繼續沿副熱帶高壓脊西南部向西北偏西移動，趨向瓊州海峽及越南北部。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24 HRS
KALMAEGI possesses a ragged eye, surrounded by tight cloudbands. As the system is moving rapidly, there will be insufficient time for the storm to consolidate and strengthen. A general weakening trend is expected as the storm enters the Gulf of Tonkin.
Due to its speed, KALMAEGI's northern wind radii are very big; many places in Hong Kong are currently experiencing gale force winds, and storm force winds are observed occasionally offshore and on high ground. Wind direction is expected to veer from east to southeast soon. KALMAEGI is currently closest to Hong Kong; as the storm retreats, winds should weaken this morning. Squally showers will continue to affect the territory today.
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Since widespread gales are still observed, it appears unlikely that the #8 Signal is cancelled in the morning rush hour. A more likely time would be later this morning or early afternoon.
由於本港正普遍吹烈風，八號信號於早上繁忙時間取消的機會較低，較可能的時間為早上較後時段或下午早段。
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)
Low 低
High 高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消)
Medium 中等
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 (Cnl. 取消)
High 高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率，首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
KALMAEGI made landfall at Luzon last night and later entered the South China Sea. At 8 am, KALMAEGI was centred about 630 km (340 NM) SE of Hong Kong. The HK Observatory issued the #1 Standby Signal at 11:35 pm last night. [Update: The #3 Strong Wind Signal was issued at 12:40 pm]
KALMAEGI is the 59th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by North Korea, meaning seagull. This name was used in 2002 and 2008.
海鷗為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 59 個名字，由北韓提供。此名曾於 2002 及 2008 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
Due to land interaction, KALMAEGI has been moving more equatorward than projected since it left the Philippines. This effect is expected to diminish, and KALMAEGI should move WNW once again along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Its forecast track speed has been increased to 30 km/h.
KALMAEGI's structure was disrupted by the Luzon terrain, but convections remain tight and appears to be redeveloping. The storm is expected to intensify as it crosses the warm South China Sea, but will start to weaken when it approches landmass.
As KALMAEGI edges closer, the weather in Hong Kong will deteriorate tonight; winds will strengthen from the east/northeast and veer to southeast tomorrow. There will also be squally showers. KALMAEGI is a fast-moving system; members of the public should be on the alert.
2014/09/16 (Tue 二), early hours 凌晨 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
The forecast track has been shifted south and the chance of issuing the #8 Gale or Storm Signal has decreased. However, as KALMAEGI moves rapidly across the South China Sea, its wind radii at its northern semicircle can still be large and gales cannot be ruled out.
KALMAEGI has intensified into a typhoon. At 8 am, KALMAEGI was centred about 430 km (230 NM) ENE of Manila.
海鷗已增強為颱風。在上午 8 時， 海鷗集結在馬尼拉東北偏東約 430 公里 (230 海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
KALMAEGI is the 59th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by North Korea, meaning seagull. This name was used in 2002 and 2008.
海鷗為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 59 個名字，由北韓提供。此名曾於 2002 及 2008 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
KALMAEGI is expected to move WNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge and make landfall at Luzon tonight. As it reaches higher latitudes and gets closer to the southern edge of the ridge, the track direction will turn west gradually. Steering from the ridge is strong and KALMAEGI is expected to move at around 25 km/h across northern South China Sea.
KALMAEGI is developing a central dense overcast. The storm is expected to intensify further before making landfall at Luzon, upon which development will halt due to land interaction. Seas in South China Sea are warm enough to fuel another round of intensification as the storm traverses the area.
Subsidence associated with KALMAEGI may result in very hot weather in southern China on Monday. As KALMAEGI edges closer, the weather in Hong Kong will deteriorate on Monday night and Tuesday; winds will strengthen from the east and veer to southeast during the day. There will also be squally showers. Strong force winds or stronger are expected on Tuesday; members of the public should be on the alert.
KALMAEGI is the 59th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by North Korea, meaning seagull. This name was used in 2002 and 2008.
海鷗為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 59 個名字，由北韓提供。此名曾於 2002 及 2008 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
The subtropical ridge has weakened in the past 24 hours, leading to a weaker steering flow. KALMAEGI is expected to turn WNW and approach Luzon. The ridge will strengthen again later and the storm should gradually turn equatorward as it traverses northern South China Sea.
KALMAEGI benefits from decent divergence and warm sea temperatures, and is expected to intensify into a typhoon before landfall at Luzon. Some weakening is expected as KALMAEGI passes through the Philippines, but conditions in northern South China Sea are favourable for storm development.
Subsidence associated with KALMAEGI may result in very hot weather in southern China on Monday. As KALMAEGI edges closer, the weather in Hong Kong will deteriorate on Monday night and Tuesday; winds will strengthen from the east and veer to southeast during the day. There will also be squally showers.
KALMAEGI is the 59th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by North Korea, meaning seagull. This name was used in 2002 and 2008.
海鷗為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 59 個名字，由北韓提供。此名曾於 2002 及 2008 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
KALMAEGI appears to have travelled further north than expected due to a relocation of its centre. The subtropical ridge north of the system is expected to result in a generally westward movement in the next 24 hours. A weak passing trough will somewhat weaken the ridge slightly afterwards, and the storm should start to move WNW. The ridge is not expected to weaken enough to induce a recurvature.
KALMAEGI has consolidated substantially in the past 12 hours, with convections wrapping effectively around the centre. In warm seas and with moderate shear, the storm should be able to intensify steadily before reaching Luzon. Some weakening is expected as KALMAEGI passes through the Philippines, but conditions in northern South China Sea are favourable for storm development.
15W is situated in the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge, which has a slight weakness ahead of the storm. It is expected to move WNW in the next 72 hours in the general direction of seas east of Luzon.
15W will need some time to consolidate. Thereafter, warm seas and relatively low vertical wind shear will allow the storm to intensify at a quicker pace.
15W 需時整合，隨後溫暖海水及較低垂直風切變將有利風暴以較快速度增強。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
預料 15W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。
Next Update
下次更新
2014/09/12 (Fri 五), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
