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1. 06W (NIDA 妮妲)

Name of System 系統名稱

TD NIDA 熱帶低氣壓 妮妲



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 06W / 1604
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #7 FINAL BULLETIN 最後發佈
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/08/03, 09:15 HKT (01:15 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/08/03, 08:00 HKT (00:00 UTC)
Position 位置 24.9°N, 108.1°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 25 knots 節 (45 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1000 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

WNW 西北偏西 (294°) at 15 knots 節 (28 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Guangxi Province 廣西省


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+008/03 (Wed) 08:0024.9°N108.1°EW 西 (278°) 20 km/h30 kt (56 km/h)TD 熱帶低氣壓WNW 西北偏西 682 km
t+1208/03 (Wed) 20:0025.2°N105.7°EN/A20 kt (37 km/h)LPA 低壓區WNW 西北偏西 920 km
Overview 總覽

NIDA has weakened into a tropical depression and is now crossing Guangxi Province. At 8 am, NIDA was centred about 680 km (370 NM) WNW of Hong Kong. The HK Observatory cancelled the #3 Strong Wind Signal yesterday at 5:10 pm.

妮妲已減弱為熱帶低氣壓,正橫過廣西省。在上午 8 時,妮妲集結在香港西北偏西約 680 公里 (370 海里)。香港天文台於昨日下午 5 時 10 分取消三號強風信號。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

NIDA is the 96th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Thailand, and is a female's name. This name was used in 2004 and 2009.

妮妲為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 96 個名字,由泰國提供,為一女性名字。此名曾於 2004 及 2009 年使用。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

NIDA is expected to track west and move further inland over the next 12 hours.

預料妮妲將於未來 12 小時向西移動,進一步深入內陸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: N/A 不適用

NIDA has become disorganized and is expected to weaken into an area of low pressure by t+12.

妮妲的組織變得鬆散,預料將於未來 12 小時減弱為低壓區。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

預料妮妲於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。

Next Update 下次更新

This is the final bulletin on NIDA.

這是本站對妮妲的最後一次發佈。

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
N/A 不適用
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]

N/A 不適用


Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告 (請按發佈編號顯示內容)

+06W (NIDA 妮妲) Bulletin 發佈 #6 (2016/08/02, 15:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TS NIDA 熱帶風暴 妮妲



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 06W / 1604
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #6
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/08/02, 15:30 HKT (07:30 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/08/02, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 23.5°N, 112.4°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 990 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

NW 西北 (306°) at 14 knots 節 (25 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Central and western Guangdong 廣東中西部


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 08/02 (Tue) 14:00 23.5°N 112.4°E WNW 西北偏西 (292°) 20 km/h 45 kt (83 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 NW 西北 225 km
t+12 08/03 (Wed) 02:00 24.3°N 110.2°E WNW 西北偏西 (284°) 20 km/h 30 kt (56 km/h) TD 熱帶低氣壓 WNW 西北偏西 462 km
t+24 08/03 (Wed) 14:00 24.8°N 107.9°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) LPA 低壓區 WNW 西北偏西 696 km
Overview 總覽

NIDA moves deeper inland and has weakened quickly into a tropical storm. At 2 pm, NIDA was centred about 230 km (120 NM) NW of Hong Kong. The HK Observatory issued the #3 Strong Wind Signal at 12:40 pm.

妮妲繼續深入內陸,並快速減弱為熱帶風暴。在下午 2 時,妮妲集結在香港西北約 230 公里 (120 海里)。香港天文台於下午 12 時 40 分改發三號強風信號。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

NIDA is the 96th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Thailand, and is a female's name. This name was used in 2004 and 2009.

妮妲為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 96 個名字,由泰國提供,為一女性名字。此名曾於 2004 及 2009 年使用。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

NIDA is expected to move WNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge in the next 24 hours.

預料妮妲將於未來 24 小時沿副熱帶高壓脊西南部向西北偏西移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: N/A 不適用

NIDA is losing energy quickly on land. The storm is now expected to degenerate into an area of low pressure by t+24.

妮妲的能量於陸上快速喪失,預料會於 24 小時內減弱為低壓區。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Local winds have turned south and are easing steadily. Occasional squally showers will still affect the territory; the weather will improve gradually over the next few days.

本港已轉吹南風,風力正穩定地緩和。預料香港仍會間中受狂風驟雨影響;天氣會於未來數天逐漸改善。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/08/03 (Wed 三), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消) Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消) Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8            
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9            
Hurricane 颶風 #10            

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Tue
20h
+12
Wed
02h
+18
Wed
08h
+24
Wed
14h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 63 17 5 2
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 37 46 12 4
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 54 15 4 1
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 46 40 10 3

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over forecast interval
預報期內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 #1+ #3+ #8+
Issued within next 24 hours 未來 24 小時內發出有關信號機率 -- -- 0
Cancelled within next 24 hours 未來 24 小時內取消有關信號機率 99 99 --

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+06W (NIDA 妮妲) Bulletin 發佈 #5 (2016/08/02, 09:45 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TY (CAT. 1) NIDA 一級颱風 妮妲



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 06W / 1604
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #5
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/08/02, 09:45 HKT (01:45 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/08/02, 09:00 HKT (01:00 UTC)
Position 位置 22.8°N, 113.5°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 975 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

WNW 西北偏西 (288°) at 13 knots 節 (24 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Near Pearl River Estuary 珠江口一帶


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 08/02 (Tue) 09:00 22.8°N 113.5°E WNW 西北偏西 (292°) 20 km/h 65 kt (120 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 NW 西北 88 km
t+12 08/02 (Tue) 21:00 23.6°N 111.3°E WNW 西北偏西 (286°) 20 km/h 50 kt (93 km/h) STS 強烈熱帶風暴 WNW 西北偏西 327 km
t+24 08/03 (Wed) 09:00 24.2°N 109.0°E WNW 西北偏西 (282°) 18 km/h 40 kt (74 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 WNW 西北偏西 568 km
t+36 08/03 (Wed) 21:00 24.6°N 106.9°E W 西 (280°) 16 km/h 30 kt (56 km/h) TD 熱帶低氣壓 WNW 西北偏西 784 km
t+48 08/04 (Thu) 09:00 24.9°N 105.0°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) LPA 低壓區 WNW 西北偏西 977 km
Overview 總覽

NIDA made landfall at Dapeng Peninsula near 3:30 am and continued to move WNW. It was closest to the Hong Kong Observatory at around 5 am, passing to the NNE at a distance of around 40 km. At 9 am, NIDA was centred about 90 km (50 NM) NW of the Hong Kong Observatory. The #8 Northwest Gale or Storm Signal was replaced by the Southwest Signal at 4:40 am.

妮妲於上午約 3 時 30 分登陸大鵬半島,並繼續向西北偏西移動。風暴於上午 5 時左右最接近香港天文台,在其東北偏北方約 40 公里處掠過。在上午 9 時,妮妲集結在香港天文台西北約 90 公里 (50 海里)。香港天文台於上午 4 時 40 分改發八號西南烈風或暴風信號。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

NIDA is the 96th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Thailand, and is a female's name. This name was used in 2004 and 2009.

妮妲為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 96 個名字,由泰國提供,為一女性名字。此名曾於 2004 及 2009 年使用。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

NIDA is expected to move WNW turning to W inland over the next 48 hours.

預料妮妲將於未來 48 小時向西北偏西轉西移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: N/A 不適用

NIDA's eye collapsed after landfall, and the storm is expected to weaken gradually over the next 48 hours into an area of low pressure.

妮妲的風眼於登陸後瓦解,預料將於未來 48 小時逐漸減弱為一低壓區。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Gales are currently observed in the territory and the wind direction has changed to the southwest. Sea levels are currently higher than normal; low-lying areas are at risk of flooding. Winds will remain strong in the next couple of hours with squally showers, and are expected to diminish gradually this afternoon.

香港正吹烈風,風向已轉為西南。現時海水水位比正常高,低窪地區有水浸風險。預料較強風速會於未來數小時維持,並伴隨狂風驟雨,風勢會於下午逐漸緩和。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/08/02 (Tue 二), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

Despite NIDA's close approach, winds have been weaker than expected and the #9 Increasing Gale or Storm Signal was deemed unnecessary. The Observatory has indicated that the #3 Strong Wind Signal will be considered between noon and 2 pm.

雖然妮妲曾非常接近香港,但風勢比預期弱,九號烈風或暴風增強信號無需發出。天文台已表示將考慮於中午至下午 2 時改發三號強風信號。

Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消) Low 低 High 高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消) Low 低 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 (Cnl. 取消) Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9            
Hurricane 颶風 #10            

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Tue
15h
+12
Tue
21h
+18
Wed
03h
+24
Wed
09h
+30
Wed
15h
+36
Wed
21h
+42
Thu
03h
+48
Thu
09h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 9782522261
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 31630301641
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 9772331131
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 325392282
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 461
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 54461

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over forecast interval
預報期內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號#1+#3+#8+
Issued within next 48 hours 未來 48 小時內發出有關信號機率------
Cancelled within next 48 hours 未來 48 小時內取消有關信號機率100100100

Joint work with World Typhoon Web世界熱帶氣旋網共同製作

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+06W (NIDA 妮妲) Bulletin 發佈 #4 (2016/08/02, 01:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TY (CAT. 1) NIDA 一級颱風 妮妲



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 06W / 1604
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #4
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/08/02, 01:00 HKT (08/01 17:00 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/08/02, 00:00 HKT (08/01 16:00 UTC)
Position 位置 22.1°N, 115.5°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 965 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

WNW 西北偏西 (296°) at 14 knots 節 (25 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Near Pearl River Estuary 珠江口一帶


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 08/02 (Tue) 00:00 22.1°N 115.5°E WNW 西北偏西 (296°) 22 km/h 75 kt (139 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 E 東 139 km
t+12 08/02 (Tue) 12:00 23.1°N 113.2°E WNW 西北偏西 (290°) 22 km/h 65 kt (120 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 NW 西北 133 km
t+24 08/03 (Wed) 00:00 23.9°N 110.7°E WNW 西北偏西 (284°) 20 km/h 50 kt (93 km/h) STS 強烈熱帶風暴 WNW 西北偏西 397 km
t+36 08/03 (Wed) 12:00 24.4°N 108.4°E W 西 (279°) 18 km/h 35 kt (65 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 WNW 西北偏西 633 km
t+48 08/04 (Thu) 00:00 24.7°N 106.3°E W 西 (276°) 14 km/h 25 kt (46 km/h) TD 熱帶低氣壓 WNW 西北偏西 845 km
t+72 08/05 (Fri) 00:00 25.0°N 102.9°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) LPA 低壓區 WNW 西北偏西 1185 km
Overview 總覽

NIDA has intensified slightly and is several hours away from making landfall near Hong Kong. At midnight, NIDA was centred about 140 km (75 NM) E of Hong Kong. The #8 Northwest Gale or Storm Signal was issued at 8:40 pm yesterday.

妮妲稍為增強,將於數小時後登陸香港附近地區。在午夜,妮妲集結在香港以東約 140 公里 (75 海里)。香港天文台於昨晚 8 時 40 分發出八號西北烈風或暴風信號。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

NIDA is the 96th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Thailand, and is a female's name. This name was used in 2004 and 2009.

妮妲為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 96 個名字,由泰國提供,為一女性名字。此名曾於 2004 及 2009 年使用。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

NIDA is expected to move WNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge and should make landfall within 50 km of the HK Observatory before dawn. The storm is expected to deflect to the west after landfall.

預料妮妲將沿副熱帶高壓脊西南部向西北偏西移動,破曉前於香港天文台 50 公里範圍內登陸。登陸後,妮妲的路徑將漸轉偏西。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24 HRS

NIDA's eye remains large and the strongest convections are to its south. It should maintain its current intensity before landfall, after which rapid weakening is expected.

妮妲的風眼仍然頗大,較強對流於其南面。預料妮妲登陸前維持強度,隨後快速減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Strong to gale force winds are currently affecting Hong Kong. However, NIDA's inner eyewall will strike Hong Kong soon, at which point winds will surge rapidly, possibly reaching storm force. Part of NIDA's eye may reach the territory and temporary calmness is possible at some places. Squally showers will persist as wind direction changes from northwest to southwest overnight. Note that astronomical high tide occurs on Tuesday morning and may exacerbate the effect of storm surge at low-lying areas. Please remain indoors and refer regularly to the latest developments of the tropical cyclone.

香港正普遍受強風至烈風影響。預料妮妲的內眼壁即將掠過本港,屆時風勢會進一步增強,或達暴風程度。妮妲風眼部分範圍或觸及香港,部分地區風勢有機會暫時轉為平靜。狂風驟雨將繼續影響本港,風向於凌晨由西北轉為西南。注意周二早上適逢天文大潮,或加劇風暴潮對低窪地區的影響。請留在室內安全地方,並定時留意最新熱帶氣旋發展。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/08/02 (Tue 二), morning 早上 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

Given that NIDA will be extremely close to Hong Kong, the #9 Increasing Gale or Storm Signal is quite likely (within next 6 hours and may be cancelled before t+12). Issuance of the #10 Hurricane Signal is only possible if sustained hurricane force winds is observed in the territory.

由於妮妲將非常接近本港,預料發出九號烈風或暴風增強信號的機會頗大 (於未來 6 小時內;t+12 之時或已取消)。至於十號颶風信號只會於本地錄得持續颶風時才有可能發出。

Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)   Medium 中等 High 高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消)   Medium 中等 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 (Cnl. 取消) Low 低 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9 Medium 中等          
Hurricane 颶風 #10 Low 低          

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Tue
06h
+12
Tue
12h
+18
Tue
18h
+24
Wed
00h
+30
Wed
06h
+36
Wed
12h
+42
Wed
18h
+48
Thu
00h
+54
Thu
06h
+60
Thu
12h
+66
Thu
18h
+72
Fri
00h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 1001009368341031
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 626342472
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 100100905119621
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 939321441
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 10094201
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 674191

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號#1+#3+#8+
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率------
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率100100100

Joint work with World Typhoon Web世界熱帶氣旋網共同製作

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+06W (NIDA 妮妲) Bulletin 發佈 #3 (2016/08/01, 15:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TY (CAT. 1) NIDA 一級颱風 妮妲



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 06W / 1604
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #3
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/08/01, 15:15 HKT (07:15 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/08/01, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 21.0°N, 117.6°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 975 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

NW 西北 (304°) at 15 knots 節 (27 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Northern South China Sea 南海北部


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 08/01 (Mon) 14:00 21.0°N 117.6°E WNW 西北偏西 (301°) 24 km/h 65 kt (120 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 383 km
t+12 08/02 (Tue) 02:00 22.3°N 115.2°E WNW 西北偏西 (295°) 24 km/h 75 kt (139 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 E 東 106 km
t+24 08/02 (Tue) 14:00 23.4°N 112.6°E WNW 西北偏西 (286°) 24 km/h 65 kt (120 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 NW 西北 202 km
t+36 08/03 (Wed) 02:00 24.1°N 109.9°E W 西 (280°) 22 km/h 50 kt (93 km/h) STS 強烈熱帶風暴 WNW 西北偏西 480 km
t+48 08/03 (Wed) 14:00 24.5°N 107.3°E W 西 (277°) 16 km/h 40 kt (74 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 WNW 西北偏西 742 km
t+72 08/04 (Thu) 14:00 24.9°N 103.5°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) LPA 低壓區 WNW 西北偏西 1124 km
Overview 總覽

NIDA has intensified into a typhoon and is now moving WNW to NW steadily, approaching southern China coastal areas. At 2 pm, NIDA was centred about 380 km (210 NM) ESE of Hong Kong. The #1 Standby Signal was issued at 10:10 pm last night, and was replaced by the #3 Strong Wind Signal at 11:40 am today.

妮妲已增強為颱風,並穩定向西北偏西至西北移動,靠近華南沿岸。在下午 2 時,妮妲集結在香港東南偏東約 380 公里 (210 海里)。香港天文台於昨晚 10 時 10 分發出一號戒備信號,其後於今天上午 11 時 40 分改發三號強風信號。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

NIDA is the 96th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Thailand, and is a female's name. This name was used in 2004 and 2009.

妮妲為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 96 個名字,由泰國提供,為一女性名字。此名曾於 2004 及 2009 年使用。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

NIDA is expected to move WNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge and make landfall in the vicinity of the Pearl River Estuary overnight, with a slightly higher possibility of landfall east of Hong Kong. The storm is expected to deflect to the west after landfall.

預料妮妲將沿副熱帶高壓脊西南部向西北偏西移動,凌晨時段於珠江口附近地區登陸,登陸點較大機會於香港以東。登陸後,妮妲的路徑將漸轉偏西。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

NIDA has developed a rather large banding eye. It is still expected to intensify over the next 12 hours in warm seas with decent divergence aloft. The storm will weaken quickly after landfall.

妮妲發展出一較大雲捲風眼。在溫暖的洋面及良好高空輻散的環境下,預料妮妲可於未來 12 小時增強,並將於登陸後減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

NIDA's outer rainbands are now affecting Hong Kong. The storm is expected to be very close to Hong Kong tonight and northwesterly winds will pick up rapidly after sunset, reaching gale force and possibly storm force offshore. According to the present analysis, NIDA is more likely to make landfall east of the territory, and in this situation winds will back from the northwest to southwest early tomorrow. Note that astronomical high tide occurs on Tuesday morning and may exacerbate the effect of storm surge if NIDA comes close at that time. Please take all necessary precautions as soon as possible and refer regularly to the latest developments of the tropical cyclone.

妮妲的外圍雨帶已開始影響香港。預料風暴今晚將非常接近本港,日落後西北風將快速增強至烈風程度,離岸可能吹暴風。按照目前分析,妮妲較大可能於香港以東登陸,在此情況下風向會於明日由西北逆轉至西南。注意周二早上適逢天文大潮,如風暴屆時靠近本港或會加劇風暴潮的影響。請盡早完成所有防風措施,並定時留意最新熱帶氣旋發展。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/08/02 (Tue 二), in the small hours 凌晨 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

The Observatory has already indicated that the #8 Gale or Storm Signal will be considered between 6 and 10 pm tonight.

天文台已表示將於今晚 6 至 10 時考慮改發八號烈風或暴風信號。

Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)     Medium 中等 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消)   Low 低 High 高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 Very High 極高 High 高        
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9 Medium 中等          
Hurricane 颶風 #10 Low 低          

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Mon
20h
+12
Tue
02h
+18
Tue
08h
+24
Tue
14h
+30
Tue
20h
+36
Wed
02h
+42
Wed
08h
+48
Wed
14h
+54
Wed
20h
+60
Thu
02h
+66
Thu
08h
+72
Thu
14h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 10010010097845223821
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 31332291662
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 1001001009673331341
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 4234020831
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 67291578
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 666202

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號#1+#3+#8+
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率----94
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率100100--

Joint work with World Typhoon Web世界熱帶氣旋網共同製作

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+06W (NIDA 妮妲) Bulletin 發佈 #2C (2016/07/31, 16:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

STS NIDA 強烈熱帶風暴 妮妲



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 06W / 1604
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #2C CORRECTED 修訂版
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/07/31, 16:30 HKT (08:30 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/07/31, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 18.0°N, 122.2°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 60 knots 節 (110 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 980 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

NW 西北 (306°) at 12 knots 節 (22 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Northern Luzon 呂宋北部


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 07/31 (Sun) 14:00 18.0°N 122.2°E NW 西北 (307°) 22 km/h 60 kt (111 km/h) STS 強烈熱帶風暴 ESE 東南偏東 964 km
t+12 08/01 (Mon) 02:00 19.4°N 120.2°E WNW 西北偏西 (300°) 24 km/h 70 kt (130 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 704 km
t+24 08/01 (Mon) 14:00 20.7°N 117.8°E WNW 西北偏西 (298°) 24 km/h 80 kt (148 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 415 km
t+36 08/02 (Tue) 02:00 21.9°N 115.3°E WNW 西北偏西 (292°) 26 km/h 85 kt (157 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 125 km
t+48 08/02 (Tue) 14:00 22.9°N 112.5°E WNW 西北偏西 (284°) 22 km/h 60 kt (111 km/h) STS 強烈熱帶風暴 WNW 西北偏西 184 km
t+72 08/03 (Wed) 14:00 24.0°N 107.5°E W 西 (281°) 16 km/h 35 kt (65 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 WNW 西北偏西 707 km
t+96 08/04 (Thu) 14:00 24.6°N 103.7°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) LPA 低壓區 WNW 西北偏西 1097 km
Overview 總覽

06W was named NIDA yesterday and intensified into a severe tropical storm this morning. NIDA is now crossing the northern tip of Luzon. At 2 pm, NIDA was centred about 400 km (220 NM) NNE of Manila.

06W 昨日被命名為妮妲,今晨增強為強烈熱帶風暴,現正橫過呂宋北端。在下午 2 時,妮妲集結在馬尼拉東北偏北約 400 公里 (220 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

NIDA is the 96th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Thailand, and is a female's name. This name was used in 2004 and 2009.

妮妲為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 96 個名字,由泰國提供,為一女性名字。此名曾於 2004 及 2009 年使用。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

NIDA is moving northwest along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge that extends westwards into central China. NIDA is expected to maintain such motion in the next 12 to 24 hours, and then turn WNW gradually towards southern China with a slight increase in speed. Numerical models have now come to better agreement and the storm is expected to reach the vicinity of the Pearl River Estuary early Tuesday. NIDA should continue to track WNW turning to W upon landfall.

妮妲正沿副熱帶高壓脊西南部向西北移動,該高壓脊西伸至中國中部。預料妮妲將於未來 12 至 24 小時維持現時路徑,其後向西北偏西移動,並略為加速,趨向華南沿岸。數值預報模式的預測漸趨一致,預料風暴會於周二早段時間到達珠江口附近區域。登陸後,妮妲將繼續向西北偏西轉西移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

NIDA's convections has tightened over the past 24 hours. The storm is not expected to lose much strength as it will only barely touch northern Philippines. Some intensification is likely when NIDA moves across the South China Sea due to the very warm sea temperatures (around 30 degrees), but vertical wind shear appears to have risen somewhat. The storm will weaken rapidly after landfall.

妮妲的對流於過去 24 小時變得緊密。由於預料風暴只輕微觸碰菲律賓北部,明顯減弱的可能性不高。南海海溫較高 (約 30 度),但垂直風切變略為提升,預料風暴橫過時仍能增強。登陸後,妮妲將急速減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Since models have come to better agreement, NIDA now poses a serious threat to the territory. As the storm approaches, it will be very hot and hazy early tomorrow. Northerly winds will strengthen later and the weather is expected to deteriorate rapidly at night. The exact sequence of wind direction changes will depend on whether the storm makes landfall east or west of Hong Kong, but in any case gales are very likely early Tuesday, with a possibility of cyclonic winds if the storm makes landfall in the territory. Note that astronomical high tide occurs on Tuesday morning and may exacerbate the effect of storm surge if NIDA comes close at that time. Please take all necessary precautions as soon as possible and refer regularly to the latest developments of the tropical cyclone.

由於模式預報較為一致,妮妲現在對香港構成嚴重威脅。隨著風暴靠近,本港明日初時天氣酷熱並有煙霞。稍後北風將增強,預料天氣會於晚間急劇轉壞。確切風向轉變取決於風暴於本港以東或以西登陸,但無論如何周二很大機會吹烈風,如氣旋登陸香港更有可能吹旋風。注意周二早上適逢天文大潮,如風暴屆時靠近本港或會加劇風暴潮的影響。請盡早完成所有防風措施,並定時留意最新熱帶氣旋發展。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/08/01 (Mon 一), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Medium 中等 Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3   High 高 Very High 極高 High 高 Medium 中等 Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8   Low 低 Very High 極高 Medium 中等    
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9     Medium 中等      
Hurricane 颶風 #10     Low 低      

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]

Updated at August 1 01:40 am: Fixed an issue that resulted in under-representation of track variability. The respective tables in bulletin #1 have also been updated.

於 8 月 1 日上午 1 時 40 分更新:修正有關未能充分反映路徑不確定性之問題,發佈 #1 的相關列表亦已修正。

6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Sun
20h
+12
Mon
02h
+18
Mon
08h
+24
Mon
14h
+30
Mon
20h
+36
Tue
02h
+42
Tue
08h
+48
Tue
14h
+54
Tue
20h
+60
Wed
02h
+66
Wed
08h
+72
Wed
14h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 74485979910099927651269
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 73742122
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 1733719197886739186
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 1626381971
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 1205971431231
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 119392041

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號#1+#3+#8+
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率1009984
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率------

Joint work with World Typhoon Web世界熱帶氣旋網共同製作

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+06W Bulletin 發佈 #1 (2016/07/30, 16:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TS 06W 熱帶風暴 06W



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 06W / ----
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #1
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/07/30, 16:30 HKT (08:30 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/07/30, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 15.3°N, 126.4°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 998 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

NNW 西北偏北 (340°) at 17 knots 節 (32 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Philippine Sea 菲律賓以東海域


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 07/30 (Sat) 14:00 15.3°N 126.4°E NW 西北 (324°) 20 km/h 35 kt (65 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 ESE 東南偏東 1502 km
t+12 07/31 (Sun) 02:00 17.0°N 125.1°E NW 西北 (315°) 20 km/h 45 kt (83 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 ESE 東南偏東 1286 km
t+24 07/31 (Sun) 14:00 18.5°N 123.5°E NW 西北 (304°) 20 km/h 55 kt (102 km/h) STS 強烈熱帶風暴 ESE 東南偏東 1059 km
t+36 08/01 (Mon) 02:00 19.7°N 121.6°E WNW 西北偏西 (300°) 24 km/h 65 kt (120 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 823 km
t+48 08/01 (Mon) 14:00 21.0°N 119.2°E WNW 西北偏西 (295°) 24 km/h 75 kt (139 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 539 km
t+72 08/02 (Tue) 14:00 23.1°N 114.1°E WNW 西北偏西 (286°) 20 km/h 80 kt (148 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 N 北 89 km
t+96 08/03 (Wed) 14:00 24.2°N 109.6°E W 西 (281°) 18 km/h 40 kt (74 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 WNW 西北偏西 512 km
t+120 08/04 (Thu) 14:00 24.9°N 105.5°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) LPA 低壓區 WNW 西北偏西 929 km
Overview 總覽

Tropical disturbance 96W east of the Philippines intensified into tropical depression 06W last night, and is now a tropical storm based on 1-minute average wind speeds. At 2 pm, 06W was centred about 590 km (320 NM) E of Manila.

於菲律賓以東的熱帶擾動 96W 昨晚增強為熱帶低氣壓 06W ,以一分鐘平均風速標準現已達熱帶風暴強度。在下午 2 時,06W 集結在馬尼拉以東約 590 公里 (320 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

N/A 不適用

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

06W is moving NNW along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge that extends westwards into China at higher latitudes. As 06W moves further north, it will reach the southern end of that westward extension and should gradually turn NW to WNW, moving into the South China Sea.

06W 正沿副熱帶高壓脊西部向西北偏北移動。該高壓脊於較高緯度西伸至中國;隨著 06W 北移,它將到達該延伸南端,預料會逐漸轉向西北或西北偏西移動,進入南海。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS

06W has a rather loose core but there are signs of consolidation over the past 6 hours. It is expected to traverse very warm seas (around 30 degrees) with low vertical wind shear, and should see steady intensification as it moves across Luzon Strait.

06W 的中心部分較為鬆散,但過去 6 小時有跡象整合。預料 06W 將橫過非常溫暖的洋面 (約 30 度),加上沿途垂直風切變較低,風暴應能於橫過呂宋海峽時穩定增強。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

According to the present forecast track, 06W will be very close to Hong Kong on Tuesday. It is expected to be very hot locally with haze on Monday, and the weather may deteriorate rapidly on Tuesday. As there is still some uncertainty to 06W's future track and intensity, it is not yet possible to predict with high accuracy the time and location of landfall, and hence the extent of its effect to Hong Kong.

按照目前預測路徑,06W 會於周二非常接近香港。預料香港周一將酷熱有煙霞,而天氣或會於周二急速轉壞。由於 06W 未來路徑及強度仍有相當不確定性,現時還未能夠準確估計其登陸時間及地點,以至風暴對香港的影響程度。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/07/31 (Sun 日), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1     Low 低 High 高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3       Low 低 High 高 High 高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8         Low 低 High 高
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9           Low 低
Hurricane 颶風 #10           Low 低

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Sat
20h
+12
Sun
02h
+18
Sun
08h
+24
Sun
14h
+30
Sun
20h
+36
Mon
02h
+42
Mon
08h
+48
Mon
14h
+54
Mon
20h
+60
Tue
02h
+66
Tue
08h
+72
Tue
14h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 520537687919288
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 515332411521
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 31234567076
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 21021221610
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 16193238
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 15131714

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號#1+#3+#8+
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率958250
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率------

Joint work with World Typhoon Web世界熱帶氣旋網共同製作

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

Track Data from HKWW 本站之路徑資料

YYMMDDZZ Lat Long Wind
16072912 120N1274E 025
16072918 125N1272E 030
16073000 137N1270E 030
16073006 153N1264E 035
16073012 162N1247E 040
16073018 167N1239E 045
16073100 173N1232E 055
16073106 180N1222E 060
16073112 188N1212E 060
16073118 195N1201E 060
16080100 201N1189E 065
16080106 210N1176E 065
16080112 219N1162E 070
16080115 220N1158E 075
16080118 223N1149E 075
16080121 226N1141E 070
16080200 227N1136E 065
16080203 231N1130E 055
16080206 235N1124E 045
16080212 239N1110E 040
16080218 243N1096E 035
16080300 249N1081E 030

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Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Thu Apr 13 2017

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