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1. 24W (SARIKA 莎莉嘉)

Name of System 系統名稱

TS SARIKA 熱帶風暴 莎莉嘉



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 24W / 1621
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #7 FINAL BULLETIN 最後發佈
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/19, 15:15 HKT (07:15 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/19, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 21.6°N, 108.1°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 990 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

NNW 西北偏北 (332°) at 8 knots 節 (15 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Guangxi and northern Vietnam 廣西及越南北部


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+010/19 (Wed) 14:0021.6°N108.1°ENNW 西北偏北 (347°) 8 km/h45 kt (83 km/h)TS 熱帶風暴W 西 630 km
t+1210/20 (Thu) 02:0022.4°N107.9°ENNW 西北偏北 (347°) 4 km/h35 kt (65 km/h)TS 熱帶風暴W 西 644 km
t+2410/20 (Thu) 14:0022.8°N107.8°EN/A20 kt (37 km/h)LPA 低壓區W 西 656 km
Overview 總覽

SARIKA has weakened into a tropical storm and is making landfall at Guangxi. At 2 pm, SARIKA was centred about 630 km (340 NM) W of Hong Kong. The #3 Strong Wind Signal was cancelled at 10:10 pm last night.

莎莉嘉減弱為熱帶風暴,並正於廣西登陸。在下午 2 時,莎莉嘉集結在香港以西約 630 公里 (340 海里)。香港天文台於昨晚 10 時 10 分取消三號強風信號。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

SARIKA is the 113th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Cambodia, meaning singing bird. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.

莎莉嘉為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 113 個名字,由柬埔寨提供,意思為啼鳥。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出一號戒備信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge retreats further and SARIKA is in its western periphery. However, a weak anticyclone west of the storm is counteracting the influence from the subtropical ridge, and the storm should decelerate in this pressure col with little net steering. As a result, SARIKA is expected to move NNW slowly in the next 24 hours.

副熱帶高壓脊進一步東退,莎莉嘉處於其西沿,而同時風暴以西有一弱高壓,抵銷副高對風暴的影響。預料莎莉嘉於未來 24 小時在此鞍場中向西北偏北緩慢移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: N/A 不適用

SARIKA has been disintegrating gradually after crossing Hainan and is now reduced to a patch of disorganized convections. The storm will continue to weaken on land and should become an area of low pressure near t+24.

莎莉嘉橫過海南後逐漸解體,現在其對流已變得雜亂無章。預料風暴會繼續於陸上減弱,並於約 24 小時後成為一低壓區。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

The convergence of the northeast monsoon and a southerly airstream induced by SARIKA results in unstable weather in the territory. As SARIKA weakens further, local weather will improve briefly tomorrow, before deteriorating again on Friday as tropical cyclone HAIMA approaches.

莎莉嘉引進的偏南氣流與東北季候風匯聚,本港天氣仍然不穩定。隨著莎莉嘉進一步減弱,明天天氣會短暫好轉;熱帶氣旋海馬將於周五靠近華南,本港天氣會再度轉壞。

Next Update 下次更新

This is the final bulletin on SARIKA.

這是本站對莎莉嘉的最後一次發佈。

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

N/A 不適用

Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]

N/A 不適用


Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告 (請按發佈編號顯示內容)

+24W (SARIKA 莎莉嘉) Bulletin 發佈 #6 (2016/10/18, 16:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TY (CAT. 2) SARIKA 二級颱風 莎莉嘉



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 24W / 1621
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #6
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/18, 16:30 HKT (08:30 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/18, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 19.1°N, 109.9°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 100 knots 節 (185 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 85 knots 節 (155 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 955 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

WNW 西北偏西 (298°) at 9 knots 節 (16 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Hainan Island 海南島


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 10/18 (Tue) 14:00 19.1°N 109.9°E NW 西北 (310°) 16 km/h 85 kt (157 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 SW 西南 569 km
t+12 10/19 (Wed) 02:00 20.2°N 108.5°E NW 西北 (325°) 14 km/h 70 kt (130 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 WSW 西南偏西 632 km
t+24 10/19 (Wed) 14:00 21.4°N 107.6°E NNW 西北偏北 (343°) 12 km/h 60 kt (111 km/h) STS 強烈熱帶風暴 W 西 685 km
t+36 10/20 (Thu) 02:00 22.6°N 107.2°E N 北 (351°) 10 km/h 40 kt (74 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 W 西 717 km
t+48 10/20 (Thu) 14:00 23.7°N 107.0°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) LPA 低壓區 WNW 西北偏西 750 km
Overview 總覽

SARIKA has made landfall at Hainan and is now crossing the island. At 2 pm, SARIKA was centred about 570 km (310 NM) SW of Hong Kong. The #3 Strong Wind Signal remains in force.

莎莉嘉已於海南登陸,正橫過該島。在下午 2 時,莎莉嘉集結在香港西南約 570 公里 (310 海里)。三號強風信號仍然生效。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

SARIKA is the 113th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Cambodia, meaning singing bird. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.

莎莉嘉為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 113 個名字,由柬埔寨提供,意思為啼鳥。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出一號戒備信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The western edge of the subtropical ridge has retreated to central China. SARIKA is moving northwest in the southwestern periphery of the ridge, and is expected to turn more poleward with reducing speed in the next 24 hours. The storm should make landfall near the Vietnam-China border tomorrow, and then move north into inland areas.

副熱帶高壓脊西沿已東退至華中。莎莉嘉正沿該脊西南部向西北移動,預料其移向將於未來 24 小時北偏,速度減慢。風暴將於明日登陸中越邊境一帶,隨後北移並深入內陸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: N/A 不適用

SARIKA's intensity has been rather stable over the past 24 hours. The storm is expected to weaken as it crosses Hainan. Due to land interaction, it will continue to weaken in the Gulf of Tonkin, and more rapidly after it makes its final landfall. It should degenerate into an area of low pressure by t+48.

莎莉嘉的強度於過去 24 小時大致維持,預料風暴將於橫過海南島時減弱。受地形影響,預料莎莉嘉會於北部灣繼續減弱,最後一次登陸後減弱速度加快。風暴將於 48 小時內成為一低壓區。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Strong easterly winds are currently observed at offshore locations and on high ground, occasionally reaching gale force. Winds will remain strong for the rest of the day, but as SARIKA weakens and recedes gradually, local winds should diminish early tomorrow and may veer to the southeast. Showers, sometimes heavy, will continue to affect Hong Kong today and tomorrow.

現時本港離岸及高地吹強東風,間中吹烈風。預料今日餘下時間風勢仍然較強,但隨著莎莉嘉減弱及逐漸遠離,本港風勢將於明日緩和,風向或順轉至東南。香港於今明兩天將繼續受驟雨影響,雨勢有時頗大。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/19 (Wed 三), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

The HK Observatory has indicated that it will consider replacing the #3 Strong Wind Signal by the Strong Monsoon Signal later today. Note: The following probabilities do not take into account tropical cyclone HAIMA that is expected to enter the South China Sea later this week.

香港天文台表示將於今天較後時間考慮改發強烈季候風信號以取代三號強風信號。註:以下概率不包括熱帶氣旋海馬預測於本周較後時間進入南海的部分

Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消) Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消) Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8            
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9            
Hurricane 颶風 #10            

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]

Note: The following probabilities do not take into account tropical cyclone HAIMA that is expected to enter the South China Sea later this week.

註:以下概率不包括熱帶氣旋海馬預測於本周較後時間進入南海的部分

6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Tue
20h
+12
Wed
02h
+18
Wed
08h
+24
Wed
14h
+30
Wed
20h
+36
Thu
02h
+42
Thu
08h
+48
Thu
14h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 52 21 10 6 3 1 1
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 48 31 11 4 3 2 1
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 40 10 2 1
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 60 30 8 1

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over forecast interval
預報期內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 #1+ #3+ #8+
Issued within next 48 hours 未來 48 小時內發出有關信號機率 -- -- 0
Cancelled within next 48 hours 未來 48 小時內取消有關信號機率 100 100 --

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+24W (SARIKA 莎莉嘉) Bulletin 發佈 #5 (2016/10/17, 14:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TY (CAT. 2) SARIKA 二級颱風 莎莉嘉



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 24W / 1621
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #5
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/17, 14:30 HKT (06:30 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/17, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 17.4°N, 113.4°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 100 knots 節 (185 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 85 knots 節 (155 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 955 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

WNW 西北偏西 (291°) at 11 knots 節 (21 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Central South China Sea 南海中部


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 10/17 (Mon) 14:00 17.4°N 113.4°E WNW 西北偏西 (294°) 18 km/h 85 kt (157 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 S 南 550 km
t+12 10/18 (Tue) 02:00 18.2°N 111.5°E WNW 西北偏西 (302°) 18 km/h 95 kt (176 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 SSW 西南偏南 534 km
t+24 10/18 (Tue) 14:00 19.2°N 109.8°E NW 西北 (307°) 15 km/h 90 kt (167 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 SW 西南 570 km
t+36 10/19 (Wed) 02:00 20.2°N 108.4°E NW 西北 (322°) 14 km/h 75 kt (139 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 WSW 西南偏西 641 km
t+48 10/19 (Wed) 14:00 21.4°N 107.4°E NNW 西北偏北 (331°) 12 km/h 65 kt (120 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 W 西 705 km
t+72 10/20 (Thu) 14:00 23.7°N 106.0°E NNW 西北偏北 (342°) 8 km/h 35 kt (65 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 WNW 西北偏西 850 km
t+96 10/21 (Fri) 14:00 25.4°N 105.4°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) LPA 低壓區 WNW 西北偏西 955 km
Overview 總覽

SARIKA is moving WNW and has intensified into a category 2 typhoon. At 2 pm, SARIKA was centred about 550 km (300 NM) S of Hong Kong. The HK Observatory issued the #1 Standby Signal at 9:20 pm last night; it was replaced by the #3 Strong Wind Signal at 1:40 pm today.

莎莉嘉向西北偏西移動,並增強為二級颱風。在下午 2 時,莎莉嘉集結在香港以南約 550 公里 (300 海里)。香港天文台於昨晚 9 時 20 分發出一號戒備信號,繼而於今天下午 1 時 40 分改發三號強風信號。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

SARIKA is the 113th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Cambodia, meaning singing bird. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.

莎莉嘉為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 113 個名字,由柬埔寨提供,意思為啼鳥。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出一號戒備信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The western edge of the subtropical ridge is weakening. SARIKA has moved to the southwestern periphery of the ridge and is expected to move WNW turning to NW in the next 24 to 36 hours, and will cross Hainan Island tomorrow. It is expected to move NW to NNW afterwards, towards the Vietnam-China border near t+48. By then the subtropical ridge will have weakened sufficiently for the storm to track poleward inland.

副熱帶高壓脊西沿有所減弱,莎莉嘉處於副高西南部,預料將於未來 24 至 36 小時向西北偏西轉西北移動,並於明日橫過海南島。隨後預料風暴將向西北至西北偏北移動,於約 48 小時後趨向中越邊境一帶。預料屆時副高減弱程度將能使莎莉嘉於內陸以較偏北方向移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24 HRS

SARIKA's eye and its surrounding convections have improved over the past 24 hours, but the eye remains ragged. The storm will continue to intensify in the next 12 hours in warm seas with low vertical wind shear, but will weaken considerably as it crosses Hainan. Due to land interaction, it will continue to weaken in the Gulf of Tonkin, and more rapidly after it makes its final landfall. It should degenerate into an area of low pressure by t+96.

莎莉嘉的風眼及其周邊對流於過去 24 小時有所改善,但風眼形狀仍然較不規則。在溫暖的海域及低垂直風切變的環境下,預料莎莉嘉將於未來 12 小時繼續增強,但會於橫過海南島時明顯減弱。受地形影響,預料莎莉嘉會於北部灣繼續減弱,最後一次登陸後減弱速度加快。風暴將於 96 小時內成為一低壓區。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Strong force east to northeasterly winds are currently observed at offshore locations and on high ground. Due to the combined effect of the northeast monsoon and SARIKA, more widespread strong force winds are expected later today and tomorrow; winds will turn east to southeast later tomorrow as SARIKA moves to higher latitudes. The storm's northern rainbands will bring frequent and sometimes heavy showers to Hong Kong today and tomorrow.

現時本港離岸及高地錄得強風程度的東至東北風。受東北季候風及莎莉嘉的共同影響,預料較多地區將於今天稍後及明天吹強風;而隨著莎莉嘉移至較高緯度,風向將於明天較後時間轉為東至東南。風暴北方的雨帶亦會於今明兩天為本港帶來頻密驟雨,間中雨勢頗大。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/18 (Tue 二), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

Unless SARIKA's wind field expands significantly, widespread gales are not expected and higher signals should be unlikely. Note: The following probabilities do not take into account tropical cyclone HAIMA that is expected to enter the South China Sea 3 days later.

除非莎莉嘉的風場明顯擴闊,否則預測香港將不會普遍吹烈風,需要發出更高信號的機會不大。註:以下概率不包括熱帶氣旋海馬預測於三天後進入南海的部分

Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)   Medium 中等 High 高 High 高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消) Low 低 Medium 中等 High 高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 Low 低 Low 低        
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9            
Hurricane 颶風 #10            

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]

Note: The following probabilities do not take into account tropical cyclone HAIMA that is expected to enter the South China Sea 3 days later.

註:以下概率不包括熱帶氣旋海馬預測於三天後進入南海的部分

6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Mon
20h
+12
Tue
02h
+18
Tue
08h
+24
Tue
14h
+30
Tue
20h
+36
Wed
02h
+42
Wed
08h
+48
Wed
14h
+54
Wed
20h
+60
Thu
02h
+66
Thu
08h
+72
Thu
14h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 99 95 85 64 39 22 14 9 7 4 2 1
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 1 4 10 21 26 17 8 5 3 2 2 1
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 97 92 82 62 32 13 5 2 1 1
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 3 5 10 21 29 19 8 3 1

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 #1+ #3+ #8+
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率 -- -- 1
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率 99 100 --

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+24W (SARIKA 莎莉嘉) Bulletin 發佈 #4 (2016/10/16, 15:45 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TY (CAT. 1) SARIKA 一級颱風 莎莉嘉



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 24W / 1621
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #4
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/16, 15:45 HKT (07:45 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/16, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 16.5°N, 118.4°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 95 knots 節 (175 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 80 knots 節 (150 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 75 knots 節 (140 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 960 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

W 西 (281°) at 16 knots 節 (29 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Central South China Sea 南海中部


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 10/16 (Sun) 14:00 16.5°N 118.4°E W 西 (277°) 25 km/h 80 kt (148 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 SE 東南 782 km
t+12 10/17 (Mon) 02:00 16.8°N 115.6°E W 西 (279°) 24 km/h 85 kt (157 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 SSE 東南偏南 629 km
t+24 10/17 (Mon) 14:00 17.2°N 112.9°E WNW 西北偏西 (291°) 18 km/h 95 kt (176 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 SSW 西南偏南 582 km
t+36 10/18 (Tue) 02:00 17.9°N 111.0°E WNW 西北偏西 (298°) 16 km/h 105 kt (194 km/h) TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 SW 西南 590 km
t+48 10/18 (Tue) 14:00 18.7°N 109.4°E WNW 西北偏西 (303°) 14 km/h 100 kt (185 km/h) TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 SW 西南 637 km
t+72 10/19 (Wed) 14:00 20.3°N 106.7°E NW 西北 (314°) 12 km/h 80 kt (148 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 WSW 西南偏西 805 km
t+96 10/20 (Thu) 14:00 22.1°N 104.7°E NW 西北 (320°) 8 km/h 40 kt (74 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 W 西 974 km
t+120 10/21 (Fri) 14:00 23.4°N 103.5°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) LPA 低壓區 W 西 1099 km
Overview 總覽

SARIKA intensified into a category 4 typhoon when it made landfall at Luzon earlier today. It has since then weakened into category 1 and has entered the South China Sea. At 2 pm, SARIKA was centred about 780 km (420 NM) SE of Hong Kong.

莎莉嘉今天較早時以四級颱風強度登陸呂宋,其後減弱至一級颱風,現已進入南海。在下午 2 時,莎莉嘉集結在香港東南約 780 公里 (420 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

SARIKA is the 113th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Cambodia, meaning singing bird. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.

莎莉嘉為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 113 個名字,由柬埔寨提供,意思為啼鳥。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出一號戒備信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge is firmly established in southern China and northern South China Sea. SARIKA is expected to move west quickly along its southern periphery in the next 12 to 24 hours. The western edge of the ridge will weaken afterwards, placing SARIKA at its southwestern periphery and the storm should turn WNW and then NW later in the forecast period. Its track speed is also expected to decrease as it approaches the Gulf of Tonkin and northern Vietnam.

副熱帶高壓脊勢力覆蓋華南及南海北部,預料莎莉嘉將於未來 12 至 24 小時沿該脊南部向西快速移動。稍後副高西端將減弱,令莎莉嘉處於其西南方,風暴將向西北偏西轉西北移動。風暴趨向北部灣及越南北部時移速亦會下降。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/W0.5/24 HRS

SARIKA's compact eye was destroyed by the mountain ranges in Luzon and the storm is now wrapping a larger banding eye, with more convections in its southern semicircle. The storm is expected to intensify gradually as it tracks across the warm South China Sea with low to moderate vertical wind shear and decent divergence aloft. It will weaken as it nears Hainan and later Vietnam, and should degenerate into an area of low pressure by the end of the forecast period.

莎莉嘉原先緊密的風眼被呂宋山脈破壞,風暴現正建立一較大的雲捲風眼,南半圓對流較多。由於南海溫暖,垂直風切變處於低至中等水平且高空輻散良好,預料莎莉嘉將逐漸增強,至靠近海南及越南時才減弱。風暴將於預測期末段減弱為低壓區。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Due to the combined effect of the northeast monsoon and SARIKA, it will be rather windy in Hong Kong in the next few days, with winds initially coming from the northeast and veering to the southeast on Wednesday. There will also be frequent showers due to SARIKA's outer rainbands.

受東北季候風及莎莉嘉的共同影響,本港未來數天風勢會較大,初時將吹東北風,至周三順轉至東南。莎莉嘉的雨帶亦會為本港帶來頻密驟雨。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/17 (Mon 一), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

The HK Observatory will consider issuing the #1 Standby Signal tonight.

香港天文台將於今晚考慮發出一號戒備信號。

Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 High 高 High 高 Medium 中等 Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3 Low 低 Medium 中等 Medium 中等 Medium 中等 Low 低  
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8            
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9            
Hurricane 颶風 #10            

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Sun
20h
+12
Mon
02h
+18
Mon
08h
+24
Mon
14h
+30
Mon
20h
+36
Tue
02h
+42
Tue
08h
+48
Tue
14h
+54
Tue
20h
+60
Wed
02h
+66
Wed
08h
+72
Wed
14h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 45 72 83 86 83 76 65 49 33 23 16 12
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 45 27 12 4 1 1
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 2 11 26 37 42 43 39 32 21 13 8 5
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 2 9 15 12 7 4 2 1 1
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 1 1
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 1

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 #1+ #3+ #8+
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率 90 54 2
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率 -- -- --

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+24W (SARIKA 莎莉嘉) Bulletin 發佈 #3 (2016/10/15, 15:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TY (CAT. 2) SARIKA 二級颱風 莎莉嘉



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 24W / 1621
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #3
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/15, 15:00 HKT (07:00 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/15, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 14.8°N, 123.9°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 110 knots 節 (205 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 80 knots 節 (150 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 950 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

NW 西北 (321°) at 8 knots 節 (14 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Philippine Sea 菲律賓以東海域


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 10/15 (Sat) 14:00 14.8°N 123.9°E WNW 西北偏西 (295°) 18 km/h 90 kt (167 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 SE 東南 1320 km
t+12 10/16 (Sun) 02:00 15.6°N 122.1°E WNW 西北偏西 (283°) 25 km/h 105 kt (194 km/h) TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 SE 東南 1117 km
t+24 10/16 (Sun) 14:00 16.2°N 119.4°E W 西 (281°) 25 km/h 80 kt (148 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 SE 東南 872 km
t+36 10/17 (Mon) 02:00 16.7°N 116.6°E W 西 (281°) 25 km/h 85 kt (157 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 SSE 東南偏南 672 km
t+48 10/17 (Mon) 14:00 17.2°N 113.8°E WNW 西北偏西 (290°) 18 km/h 95 kt (176 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 S 南 568 km
t+72 10/18 (Tue) 14:00 18.5°N 109.9°E WNW 西北偏西 (298°) 14 km/h 110 kt (204 km/h) TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 SW 西南 613 km
t+96 10/19 (Wed) 14:00 19.9°N 107.0°E NW 西北 (305°) 12 km/h 80 kt (148 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 WSW 西南偏西 790 km
t+120 10/20 (Thu) 14:00 21.3°N 104.8°E N/A 40 kt (74 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 W 西 973 km
Overview 總覽

SARIKA has intensified into a typhoon and is approaching Luzon. At 2 pm, SARIKA was centred about 320 km (170 NM) E of Manila.

莎莉嘉已增強為颱風,並靠近呂宋。在下午 2 時,莎莉嘉集結在馬尼拉以東約 320 公里 (170 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

SARIKA is the 113th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Cambodia, meaning singing bird. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.

莎莉嘉為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 113 個名字,由柬埔寨提供,意思為啼鳥。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出一號戒備信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

SARIKA is responding to a building ridge to the east and has been moving more poleward in the past 6 hours. The storm should track WNW along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge, making landfall in northern Philippines early tomorrow. SARIKA should move equatorward in the South China Sea before t+48 as the ridge maintains its strength. After t+48, SARIKA will move to the southwestern periphery of the ridge and will move WNW turning to NW near t+120.

由於莎莉嘉以東有一脊場,風暴於過去 6 小時移向較為偏北。預料莎莉嘉將沿副熱帶高壓脊南部向西北偏西移動,明日早段登陸菲律賓北部。隨後副高將維持強度,莎莉嘉於南海初時向偏西移動,48 小時後到達副高西南部,移向略轉為西北偏西,至 120 小時後向西北推進。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS

SARIKA has developed a central dense overcast and the eye is clearly visible. SARIKA is in very warm seas and further intensification is likely until landfall. SARIKA will weaken as it crosses Luzon, but should still emerge into the South China Sea as a typhoon. Conditions in the South China Sea are favourable and the storm should be able to re-intensify, before weakening again as it approaches Hainan Island.

莎莉嘉發展出一中心密集雲區,其風眼清晰可見。莎莉嘉所處海域十分溫暖,預料會增強直至登陸。莎莉嘉將於橫過呂宋時減弱,但應可以颱風強度進入南海。由於南海大氣環境較佳,預料風暴橫過時可再度增強,至靠近海南島時才再度減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Due to the combined effect of the northeast monsoon and SARIKA, it will be rather windy in Hong Kong early next week. There will also be some rain.

受東北季候風及莎莉嘉的共同影響,本港下周初風勢會較大,亦會有幾陣雨。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/16 (Sun 日), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1   Low 低 High 高 High 高 High 高 High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3     Low 低 Medium 中等 Medium 中等 Medium 中等
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8         Low 低  
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9            
Hurricane 颶風 #10            

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Sat
20h
+12
Sun
02h
+18
Sun
08h
+24
Sun
14h
+30
Sun
20h
+36
Mon
02h
+42
Mon
08h
+48
Mon
14h
+54
Mon
20h
+60
Tue
02h
+66
Tue
08h
+72
Tue
14h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 1 8 30 54 70 77 77 74 69 63
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 1 7 22 24 17 7 3 1 1
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 1 2 10 22 34 41 45 45 44
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 1 2 7 12 13 8 6 4 2
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 2 4 5 5 5
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 2 2 2 1 1

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 #1+ #3+ #8+
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率 83 55 9
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率 -- -- --

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+24W (SARIKA 莎莉嘉) Bulletin 發佈 #2 (2016/10/14, 15:45 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

STS SARIKA 強烈熱帶風暴 莎莉嘉



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 24W / 1621
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #2
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/14, 15:45 HKT (07:45 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/14, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 13.6°N, 126.2°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 50 knots 節 (95 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 985 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

W 西 (270°) at 9 knots 節 (16 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Philippine Sea 菲律賓以東海域


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 10/14 (Fri) 14:00 13.6°N 126.2°E WNW 西北偏西 (282°) 14 km/h 55 kt (102 km/h) STS 強烈熱帶風暴 SE 東南 1596 km
t+12 10/15 (Sat) 02:00 13.9°N 124.7°E WNW 西北偏西 (293°) 12 km/h 70 kt (130 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 SE 東南 1451 km
t+24 10/15 (Sat) 14:00 14.4°N 123.5°E WNW 西北偏西 (293°) 15 km/h 85 kt (157 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 SE 東南 1318 km
t+36 10/16 (Sun) 02:00 15.0°N 122.0°E WNW 西北偏西 (290°) 22 km/h 100 kt (185 km/h) TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 SE 東南 1156 km
t+48 10/16 (Sun) 14:00 15.8°N 119.7°E WNW 西北偏西 (285°) 24 km/h 80 kt (148 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 SE 東南 927 km
t+72 10/17 (Mon) 14:00 17.1°N 114.5°E WNW 西北偏西 (288°) 20 km/h 90 kt (167 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 S 南 579 km
t+96 10/18 (Tue) 14:00 18.4°N 110.1°E NW 西北 (304°) 16 km/h 110 kt (204 km/h) TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 SW 西南 606 km
t+120 10/19 (Wed) 14:00 20.3°N 107.0°E N/A 85 kt (157 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 WSW 西南偏西 775 km
Overview 總覽

24W has gradually intensified into a severe tropical storm, and was named SARIKA. At 2 pm, SARIKA was centred about 570 km (310 NM) E of Manila.

24W 逐漸增強為強烈熱帶風暴,並被命名為莎莉嘉。在下午 2 時,莎莉嘉集結在馬尼拉以東約 570 公里 (310 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

SARIKA is the 113th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Cambodia, meaning singing bird. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.

莎莉嘉為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 113 個名字,由柬埔寨提供,意思為啼鳥。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出一號戒備信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

SARIKA is situated in the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. It is expected to move W in the next 12 hours, and then WNW as the subtropical ridge intensifies to the east of the system. SARIKA should cross Luzon between t+36 and t+48, and will later accelerate towards the W or WNW in the South China Sea due to a further strengthening of the ridge to its north. It should turn more poleward after t+96 as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the ridge.

莎莉嘉處於副熱帶高壓脊南沿,預料會於未來 12 小時西移,然後因副高於其東面增強而向西北偏西移動。莎莉嘉將於 36 至 48 小時後橫過呂宋,隨後副高於風暴以北進一步增強,莎莉嘉將以較快速度向西或西北偏西移動。96 小時後,莎莉嘉到達副高西南部,預料會向西北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

SARIKA's core is very compact, but convections are rather thin in its northern semicircle. The storm is expected to track across a pool of very warm waters just off the coast of eastern Philippines, and as divergence improves, the storm will intensify significantly before making landfall. Some weakening is expected when SARIKA crosses Luzon, but conditions in the South China Sea are very favourable and the storm should be able to re-intensify.

莎莉嘉的中心緊密,但其北半圓對流較為稀疏。風暴將橫過菲律賓以東的溫暖海域,加上輻散改善,預料風暴會於登陸前明顯增強。莎莉嘉橫過呂宋時將減弱,但由於南海大氣環境較佳,預料風暴橫過時可再度增強。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Due to the combined effect of the northeast monsoon and SARIKA, it will be rather windy in Hong Kong early next week.

受東北季候風及莎莉嘉的共同影響,本港下周初風勢會較大。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/15 (Sat 六), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1       Low 低 Medium 中等 High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3         Low 低 Medium 中等
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8           Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9            
Hurricane 颶風 #10            

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Fri
20h
+12
Sat
02h
+18
Sat
08h
+24
Sat
14h
+30
Sat
20h
+36
Sun
02h
+42
Sun
08h
+48
Sun
14h
+54
Sun
20h
+60
Mon
02h
+66
Mon
08h
+72
Mon
14h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 2 8 24 41 55 63
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 2 7 15 18 14 9
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 1 3 10 20 32
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 1 2 7 11 12
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 2 5
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 2 3

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 #1+ #3+ #8+
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率 64 33 5
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率 -- -- --

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+24W Bulletin 發佈 #1 (2016/10/13, 16:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TD 24W 熱帶低氣壓 24W



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 24W / ----
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #1
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/13, 16:15 HKT (08:15 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/13, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 13.1°N, 129.9°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 25 knots 節 (45 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1002 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

WNW 西北偏西 (297°) at 7 knots 節 (12 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Philippine Sea 菲律賓以東海域


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
t+0 10/13 (Thu) 14:00 13.1°N 129.9°E WNW 西北偏西 (283°) 12 km/h 30 kt (56 km/h) TD 熱帶低氣壓
t+12 10/14 (Fri) 02:00 13.4°N 128.6°E W 西 (275°) 12 km/h 35 kt (65 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴
t+24 10/14 (Fri) 14:00 13.5°N 127.3°E W 西 (275°) 12 km/h 45 kt (83 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴
t+36 10/15 (Sat) 02:00 13.6°N 126.0°E W 西 (281°) 15 km/h 60 kt (111 km/h) STS 強烈熱帶風暴
t+48 10/15 (Sat) 14:00 13.9°N 124.4°E WNW 西北偏西 (289°) 18 km/h 75 kt (139 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風
t+72 10/16 (Sun) 14:00 15.2°N 120.5°E N/A 70 kt (130 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風
Overview 總覽

Tropical disturbance 93W east of the Philippines has intensified into tropical depression 24W. At 2 pm, 24W was centred about 980 km (530 NM) E of Manila.

於菲律賓以東的熱帶擾動 93W 已增強為熱帶低氣壓 24W。在下午 2 時,24W 集結在馬尼拉以東約 980 公里 (530 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

N/A 不適用

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

24W is in the southern periphery of the Pacific subtropical ridge, and is expected to move W to WNW in the next 72 hours towards central to northern Philippines. As the ridge intensifies, the track speed is expected to increase after t+48.

24W 處於太平洋副熱帶高壓脊南部,預料將於未來 72 小時向西至西北偏西移動,趨向菲律賓中北部。隨著副高增強,24W 的移速將於 48 小時後加快。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS

Most of 24W's convections are concentrated in its western semicircle. The storm is expected to intensify in warm seas with improving outflow channels, potentially reaching typhoon strength by t+48. The storm should weaken temporarily as it crosses the Philippines.

24W 大多數對流集中於其西半圓。由於 24W 附近海域溫暖且輻散正在改善,預料風暴將會增強,並可能於 48 小時後達到颱風強度。風暴橫過菲律賓時將略為減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

預料 24W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/14 (Fri 五), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
N/A 不適用
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
N/A 不適用

Track Data from HKWW 本站之路徑資料

YYMMDDZZ Lat Long Wind
16101212 127N1311E 025
16101218 127N1307E 025
16101300 128N1305E 030
16101306 131N1299E 030
16101312 134N1285E 035
16101318 134N1277E 040
16101400 136N1271E 050
16101406 136N1262E 055
16101412 138N1260E 065
16101418 141N1253E 070
16101500 142N1244E 075
16101506 148N1239E 090
16101512 151N1229E 100
16101518 158N1218E 115
16101600 162N1200E 090
16101606 165N1184E 080
16101612 168N1172E 080
16101618 168N1156E 080
16101700 170N1145E 080
16101706 174N1134E 085
16101712 177N1125E 090
16101718 182N1116E 090
16101800 187N1107E 090
16101806 191N1099E 085
16101812 196N1094E 070
16101818 201N1089E 060
16101900 209N1085E 050
16101906 216N1081E 045
16101912 220N1080E 035
16101918 222N1079E 030

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Sat Aug 17 2019 18:54:25 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Thu Apr 13 2017

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