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1. 25W (HAIMA 海馬)

Name of System 系統名稱

TS HAIMA 熱帶風暴 海馬



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 25W / 1622
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #10 FINAL BULLETIN 最後發佈
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/22, 02:30 HKT (10/21 18:30 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/22, 02:00 HKT (10/21 18:00 UTC)
Position 位置 25.4°N, 115.3°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 30 knots 節 (55 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 996 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

NNE 東北偏北 (013°) at 12 knots 節 (23 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Jiangxi Province 江西省


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+010/22 (Sat) 02:0025.4°N115.3°ENE 東北 (037°) 26 km/h35 kt (65 km/h)TS 熱帶風暴NNE 東北偏北 363 km
t+1210/22 (Sat) 14:0027.6°N117.2°EN/A20 kt (37 km/h)LPA 低壓區NNE 東北偏北 663 km
Overview 總覽

HAIMA turned north at nighttime and has weakened into a tropical storm. At 2 am, HAIMA was centred about 360 km (200 NM) NNE of Hong Kong. The HK Observatory issued the #3 Strong Wind Signal at 5:20 pm yesterday, and it was subsequently cancelled at 10:10 pm.

海馬於晚間向北移動,並減弱為熱帶風暴。在上午 2 時,海馬集結在香港東北偏北約 360 公里 (200 海里)。香港天文台於昨日下午 5 時 20 分改發三號強風信號,該信號於下午 10 時 10 分被取消。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

HAIMA is the 114th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by China, meaning seahorse. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.

海馬為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 114 個名字,由中國提供。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出三號強風信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge to the southeast of HAIMA is extending west. HAIMA will accelerate towards the northeast in the next 12 hours along the northwestern periphery of the ridge.

副熱帶高壓脊處於海馬東南方,並有所西伸,預料海馬將於未來 12 小時沿副高西北部向東北方加速移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: N/A 不適用

Due to increased friction on land and the removal of energy source, HAIMA is weakening rapidly and it should degenerate into an area of low pressure by t+12.

受陸上能量供應被截斷及較大摩擦力影響,海馬正快速減弱,預料會於 12 小時內減弱為低壓區。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Winds diminished quickly during the night as HAIMA weakens. Occasional strong force winds are only observed at isolated locations; the weather will improve today.

隨著海馬減弱,本港風勢快速放緩。現時只餘零星地點間中吹強風;天氣將於今日改善。

Next Update 下次更新

This is the final bulletin on HAIMA.

這是本站對海馬的最後一次發佈。

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

N/A 不適用

Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
N/A 不適用

Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告 (請按發佈編號顯示內容)

+25W (HAIMA 海馬) Bulletin 發佈 #9 (2016/10/21, 16:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TY (CAT. 1) HAIMA 一級颱風 海馬



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 25W / 1622
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #9
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/21, 16:15 HKT (08:15 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/21, 16:00 HKT (08:00 UTC)
Position 位置 23.3°N, 115.0°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 80 knots 節 (150 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 970 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

NNW 西北偏北 (341°) at 12 knots 節 (22 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Southern Guangdong 廣東南部


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 10/21 (Fri) 16:00 23.3°N 115.0°E N 北 (010°) 24 km/h 70 kt (130 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 NE 東北 140 km
t+12 10/22 (Sat) 04:00 25.9°N 115.5°E NE 東北 (037°) 28 km/h 40 kt (74 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 NNE 東北偏北 422 km
t+24 10/22 (Sat) 16:00 28.3°N 117.6°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) LPA 低壓區 NNE 東北偏北 750 km
Overview 總覽

HAIMA made landfall near Shanwei at around 1 pm, and has weakened into a category 1 typhoon. At 4 pm, HAIMA was centred about 140 km (75 NM) NE of Hong Kong. The HK Observatory issued the #8 Southwest Gale or Storm Signal at 2:15 pm, replacing the Northwest Signal.

海馬於下午約 1 時登陸汕尾一帶,現時已減弱為一級颱風。在下午 4 時,海馬集結在香港東北約 140 公里 (75 海里)。香港天文台於下午 2 時 15 分發出八號西南烈風或暴風信號,取代西北信號。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

HAIMA is the 114th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by China, meaning seahorse. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.

海馬為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 114 個名字,由中國提供。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出三號強風信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

HAIMA is about to cross the axis of the subtropical ridge to its east, and should turn north in the next 12 hours. It will then accelerate towards the northeast along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, traversing southeastern China.

副熱帶高壓脊處於海馬以東,海馬將橫過該脊脊線,預料會於未來 12 小時北移。風暴隨後將沿副高西北部向東北方偏轉,並有所加速。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: N/A 不適用

HAIMA's eye collapsed upon landfall, but its convections remain tight. The storm will weaken rapidly inland and should degenerate into an area of low pressure by t+24.

海馬的風眼於登陸後崩潰,但對流仍然緊密。預料風暴會於內陸快速減弱,並於 24 小時內減弱為低壓區。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Strong to gale force winds are still being observed in the territory, with wind direction changing to the southwest. As HAIMA weakens and moves away from Hong Kong, winds are moderating and will continue to diminish tonight. There will still be some squally showers due to HAIMA's rainbands. Please refer regularly to official forecasts and the latest development of the tropical cyclone.

現時本港仍吹強風至烈風,風向逐漸轉為西南。隨著海馬減弱及移離本港,風勢正逐漸減弱;預料此趨勢將於今晚持續,但海馬的雨帶仍會為本港帶來狂風驟雨。請定時留意官方預測及風暴最新消息。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/22 (Sat 六), in the small hours or morning 凌晨至上午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

HAIMA is moving away from Hong Kong. The HK Observatory will consider issuing the #3 Strong Wind Signal between 5 pm and 7 pm today.

海馬正移離本港。香港天文台將於今日下午 5 至 7 時考慮改發三號強風信號。

Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消) High 高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消) High 高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 (Cnl. 取消) Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9            
Hurricane 颶風 #10            

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Fri
22h
+12
Sat
04h
+18
Sat
10h
+24
Sat
16h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 91 26 1
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 9 65 25 1
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 91 26 1
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 9 65 25 1
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 9
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 91 9

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over forecast interval
預報期內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 #1+ #3+ #8+
Issued within next 24 hours 未來 24 小時內發出有關信號機率 -- -- --
Cancelled within next 24 hours 未來 24 小時內取消有關信號機率 100 100 100

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+25W (HAIMA 海馬) Bulletin 發佈 #8 (2016/10/21, 07:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TY (CAT. 2) HAIMA 二級颱風 海馬



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 25W / 1622
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #8
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/21, 07:30 HKT (10/20 23:30 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/21, 07:00 HKT (10/20 23:00 UTC)
Position 位置 21.4°N, 116.0°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 105 knots 節 (195 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 80 knots 節 (150 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 950 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

NNW 西北偏北 (329°) at 13 knots 節 (24 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Northern South China Sea 南海北部


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 10/21 (Fri) 07:00 21.4°N 116.0°E NNW 西北偏北 (340°) 25 km/h 90 kt (167 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 214 km
t+12 10/21 (Fri) 19:00 23.9°N 115.0°E NNE 東北偏北 (013°) 22 km/h 60 kt (111 km/h) STS 強烈熱帶風暴 NNE 東北偏北 197 km
t+24 10/22 (Sat) 07:00 26.2°N 115.6°E NE 東北 (051°) 28 km/h 35 kt (65 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 NNE 東北偏北 457 km
t+36 10/22 (Sat) 19:00 28.1°N 118.3°E ENE 東北偏東 (063°) 32 km/h 25 kt (46 km/h) TD 熱帶低氣壓 NNE 東北偏北 767 km
t+48 10/23 (Sun) 07:00 29.6°N 121.8°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) LPA 低壓區 NE 東北 1113 km
Overview 總覽

HAIMA is approaching southern China. At 7 am, HAIMA was centred about 210 km (120 NM) ESE of Hong Kong. The HK Observatory issued the #8 Northwest Gale or Storm Signal at 6:10 am.

海馬正逼近華南。在上午 7 時,海馬集結在香港東南偏東約 210 公里 (120 海里)。香港天文台於上午 6 時 10 分發出八號西北烈風或暴風信號。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

HAIMA is the 114th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by China, meaning seahorse. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.

海馬為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 114 個名字,由中國提供。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出三號強風信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

HAIMA is in the western periphery of the subtropical ridge that has an extension in eastern China; the storm is now moving NW to NNW. Such motion will continue in the next 12 hours and the storm is expected to make landfall near Shanwei at around noon. It will turn north and then recurve inland along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, accelerating in the process.

海馬處於副熱帶高壓脊西部,該脊於華東有一延伸。風暴正向西北至西北偏北移動,預料此移動趨勢將於未來 12 小時繼續,風暴會於正午前後登陸汕尾一帶。預料海馬將於內陸北轉,隨後沿副高西北部向東北方偏轉,並有所加速。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24 HRS

From radar and satellite images, HAIMA's banding eye and the surrounding eyewall remains intact. Little change in intensity is expected before landfall, and rapid weakening should begin thereafter. The storm should reduce into an area of low pressure before emerging into the East China Sea.

從雷達及衛星雲圖可見,海馬的雲捲風眼及其周邊眼牆仍然完整。預料風暴登陸前強度不會有大變化,隨後將急速減弱。預測海馬會於進入東海前減弱為低壓區。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Strong to gale force northwesterly winds are currently observed in some parts of the territory. A landfall east of Hong Kong is becoming increasingly likely; as HAIMA approaches, winds will strengthen this morning and widespread gales are possible, occasionally reaching storm force offshore and on high ground. There will also be heavy squally showers. HAIMA should be closest to Hong Kong near noon or in the early afternoon; winds are expected to back to the southwest later today. Showers should diminish on Saturday. Please complete all precautionary measures and refer regularly to official forecasts and latest information on the storm.

現時本港部分地區吹強風至烈風程度西北風。預測海馬較大機會於香港以東登陸;隨著海馬靠近,今早風勢將進一步增強,廣泛地區可能吹烈風,離岸及高地或間中吹暴風,並有狂風大驟雨。海馬將於中午或下午初段最接近香港,預料風向將於今日較後時間逆轉至西南。驟雨將於周六減少。請即完成防風措施,並定時留意官方預測及風暴最新消息。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/21 (Fri 五), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

A more northerly track overnight means that the storm is likely to maintain a distance of around 100 km from Hong Kong. Higher signals are possible but not as likely, due to the sheltering effect of northwesterly winds.

The #8 Signal will likely remain in force for most of the daytime today.

海馬凌晨的路徑較為偏北,預測風暴較大可能與香港維持約 100 公里的距離。發出更高信號的機會仍然存在,但由於西北風受較多屏障影響,此機會並不大。

預料八號信號較大機會於今日日間大部分時間維持。

Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)   Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消)   Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 (Cnl. 取消) Medium 中等 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9 Low 低          
Hurricane 颶風 #10            

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Fri
13h
+12
Fri
19h
+18
Sat
01h
+24
Sat
07h
+30
Sat
13h
+36
Sat
19h
+42
Sun
01h
+48
Sun
07h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 100 99 62 10
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 1 37 51 10
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 100 99 61 10
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 1 37 52 9
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 99 72 3
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 1 27 69 3

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over forecast interval
預報期內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 #1+ #3+ #8+
Issued within next 48 hours 未來 48 小時內發出有關信號機率 -- -- --
Cancelled within next 48 hours 未來 48 小時內取消有關信號機率 100 100 100

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+25W (HAIMA 海馬) Bulletin 發佈 #7 (2016/10/20, 15:45 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TY (CAT. 2) HAIMA 二級颱風 海馬



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 25W / 1622
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #7
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/20, 15:45 HKT (07:45 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/20, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 19.0°N, 118.9°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 105 knots 節 (195 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 80 knots 節 (150 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 950 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

NW 西北 (305°) at 14 knots 節 (26 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Northern South China Sea 南海北部


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 10/20 (Thu) 14:00 19.0°N 118.9°E NW 西北 (306°) 24 km/h 90 kt (167 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 SE 東南 613 km
t+12 10/21 (Fri) 02:00 20.5°N 116.7°E NW 西北 (320°) 24 km/h 85 kt (157 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 SE 東南 329 km
t+24 10/21 (Fri) 14:00 22.5°N 114.9°E N 北 (351°) 22 km/h 80 kt (148 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 ENE 東北偏東 78 km
t+36 10/22 (Sat) 02:00 24.8°N 114.5°E NNE 東北偏北 (024°) 22 km/h 50 kt (93 km/h) STS 強烈熱帶風暴 N 北 280 km
t+48 10/22 (Sat) 14:00 27.0°N 115.6°E ENE 東北偏東 (060°) 32 km/h 30 kt (56 km/h) TD 熱帶低氣壓 NNE 東北偏北 542 km
t+72 10/23 (Sun) 14:00 30.3°N 122.6°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) LPA 低壓區 NE 東北 1222 km
Overview 總覽

HAIMA crossed Luzon overnight and is now turning northwest in the South China Sea as a category 2 typhoon. At 2 pm, HAIMA was centred about 610 km (330 NM) SE of Hong Kong. The HK Observatory issued the #1 Standby Signal at 8:20 am today.

海馬凌晨橫過呂宋,現在正以二級颱風強度於南海向西北移動。在下午 2 時,海馬集結在香港東南約 610 公里 (330 海里)。香港天文台於上午 8 時 20 分發出一號戒備信號。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

HAIMA is the 114th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by China, meaning seahorse. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.

海馬為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 114 個名字,由中國提供。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出三號強風信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

Although weakened, the subtropical ridge is still covering southeastern China and Taiwan. HAIMA is in its southwestern periphery and is expected to move northwest in the next 24 hours towards southern Guangdong, making landfall near t+24. The storm will gradually turn poleward and cross the ridge axis shortly after landfall, before recurving towards the northeast along the northwestern periphery of the ridge with increasing speed.

雖然副熱帶高壓脊有所減弱,但它仍然覆蓋中國東南部及台灣一帶。海馬處於該脊西南部,預料會於未來 24 小時向西北移動,趨向廣東南部並於約 24 小時後登陸。風暴的移向將逐步北偏,並於登陸後不久橫過副高脊線,隨後沿副高西北部向東北加速移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/5.0/W2.0/24 HRS

HAIMA's compact eye disappeared following landfall at northern Philippines last night, and has subsequently turned into a larger banding eye with slightly more convections in the southern semicircle. Sea temperatures are quite high in northeastern South China Sea, but are relatively lower near the shore. Vertical wind shear remains low to moderate. As ocean heat content decreases, HAIMA is expected to weaken in the next 24 hours, but it will likely make landfall as a typhoon and remains a significant threat to southern China. Rapid weakening ensues after landfall.

海馬的緊密風眼於昨晚登陸菲律賓北部時消失,其後發展為一較大雲捲風眼,風暴南半圓對流略多。南海東北部海溫仍然較高,但近岸相對清涼,而垂直風切變維持於低至中等水平。由於海洋熱含量較低,預料海馬將於未來 24 小時減弱,但仍以颱風強度登陸,對華南構成重大威脅。海馬將於登陸後快速減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

Local winds are expected to strengthen tonight, coming in from the north. The current forecast favours a landfall east of Hong Kong. As a result, the weather is expected to deteriorate rapidly tomorrow morning, with strong to gale force northwesterly winds. There will also be heavy squally showers. HAIMA should be closest to Hong Kong tomorrow afternoon; winds are expected to back to the southwest later that day. Showers should diminish on Saturday.

At this point, a direct hit scenario cannot be ruled out. If that happens, cyclonic winds of up to hurricane force may be observed in Hong Kong. Please complete all precautionary measures and refer regularly to official forecasts and latest information on the storm.

本港今晚將吹北風,風勢逐漸加強。現時預測海馬會於香港以東登陸;明日早上天氣將急速轉壞,吹強風至烈風程度西北風,並有狂風大驟雨。海馬將於明日下午最接近香港,預料風向將於明日較後時間逆轉至西南。驟雨將於周六減少。

現時仍然未能排除風暴直趨香港的可能性。如此情況發生,香港有可能吹達颶風程度的旋風。請各位盡早做好防風措施,並定時留意官方預測及風暴最新消息。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/21 (Fri 五), morning 上午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

The HK Observatory will consider issuing the #3 Strong Wind Signal tonight. With the current track forecast, the #8 Gale or Storm Signal is very likely during daytime tomorrow. However, whether even higher signals are needed depends on HAIMA's exact landfall location, which cannot be confidently determined at this point.

香港天文台將於今晚考慮發出三號強風信號。按照目前預測路徑,明日日間八號烈風或暴風信號生效的機會非常高。是否需要改發更高信號取決於海馬的確實登陸地點,現時仍然未能完全確定。

Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)     Medium 中等 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 High 高      
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 Low 低 Very High 極高 Low 低      
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9   Medium 中等        
Hurricane 颶風 #10   Low 低        

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Thu
20h
+12
Fri
02h
+18
Fri
08h
+24
Fri
14h
+30
Fri
20h
+36
Sat
02h
+42
Sat
08h
+48
Sat
14h
+54
Sat
20h
+60
Sun
02h
+66
Sun
08h
+72
Sun
14h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 100 100 100 100 96 74 25 4
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 4 22 49 21 4
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 22 69 91 97 94 73 24 3
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 22 47 22 6 1
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 5 51 82 65 18 2
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 5 45 32 3

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 #1+ #3+ #8+
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率 -- 98 86
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率 100 -- --

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+25W (HAIMA 海馬) Bulletin 發佈 #6 (2016/10/19, 16:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

STY (CAT. 4) HAIMA 四級超級颱風 海馬



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 25W / 1622
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #6
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/19, 16:30 HKT (08:30 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/19, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 16.7°N, 124.7°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 160 knots 節 (295 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 135 knots 節 (250 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 110 knots 節 (205 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 915 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

WNW 西北偏西 (299°) at 14 knots 節 (26 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Philippine Sea 菲律賓以東海域


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 10/19 (Wed) 14:00 16.7°N 124.7°E WNW 西北偏西 (286°) 28 km/h 135 kt (250 km/h) STY (Cat. 4) 四級超級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 1266 km
t+12 10/20 (Thu) 02:00 17.5°N 121.7°E WNW 西北偏西 (296°) 28 km/h 120 kt (222 km/h) TY (Cat. 4) 四級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 950 km
t+24 10/20 (Thu) 14:00 18.8°N 118.8°E NW 西北 (309°) 24 km/h 105 kt (194 km/h) TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 SE 東南 619 km
t+36 10/21 (Fri) 02:00 20.4°N 116.7°E NW 西北 (320°) 24 km/h 95 kt (176 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 SE 東南 336 km
t+48 10/21 (Fri) 14:00 22.4°N 114.9°E N 北 (358°) 20 km/h 85 kt (157 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 E 東 76 km
t+72 10/22 (Sat) 14:00 26.7°N 114.7°E NE 東北 (052°) 30 km/h 35 kt (65 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 N 北 492 km
t+96 10/23 (Sun) 14:00 30.6°N 120.7°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) LPA 低壓區 NE 東北 1128 km
Overview 總覽

HAIMA intensified into category 5 last night, but the storm weakened today and is now a category 4 super typhoon. At 2 pm, HAIMA was centred about 460 km (250 NM) ENE of Manila.

海馬昨晚增強至五級,但風暴今天減弱,現時為四級超級颱風。在下午 2 時,海馬集結在馬尼拉東北偏東約 460 公里 (250 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

HAIMA is the 114th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by China, meaning seahorse. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.

海馬為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 114 個名字,由中國提供。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出三號強風信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

The subtropical ridge is retreating and this places HAIMA in its southwestern periphery. The storm is now moving WNW and will continue to do so in the next 12 hours, making landfall at northern Luzon tonight. Thereafter, HAIMA will gradually turn northwest and cross northern South China Sea. It is expected to turn poleward closer to landfall in the western periphery of the ridge, and cross the ridge axis shortly after landfall. HAIMA should recurve inland and accelerate towards the northeast after t+72.

副熱帶高壓脊正在東退,海馬處於其西南方,現時向西北偏西移動。預料此移動趨勢將於未來 12 小時維持,風暴會於今晚登陸呂宋北部,其後風暴移向漸轉西北,並橫過南海北部。至近登陸時,海馬將處於副高西沿,預料移向會進一步北偏,並於登陸後不久橫過副高脊線。海馬將於內陸轉向,並於 72 小時後向東北加速移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T6.5/7.0/S0.0/24 HRS W0.5/06 HRS

HAIMA's eye remains very well-defined, but eyewall cloud-top temperatures have risen over the past 12 hours. The storm is expected to weaken slightly before landfall, and more rapidly while it is crossing Luzon. The ocean heat content in South China Sea is quite a bit lower, and HAIMA should continue to weaken in the South China Sea although it will likely make landfall as a typhoon and remains a significant threat to southern China. Rapid weakening ensues after landfall.

海馬的風眼仍然非常清晰,但眼牆雲頂溫度於過去 12 小時有所上升。預料風暴登陸前將稍為減弱,橫過呂宋期間減弱速度加快。由於南海北部海洋熱含量較低,預料海馬將於南海繼續減弱,但仍以颱風強度登陸,對華南構成重大威脅。海馬將於登陸後快速減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

As HAIMA approaches, winds will turn northeast on Thursday, and back to the northwest on Friday with gradual strengthening. Numerical models have remained fairly consistent and, with the decrease in forecast time, a close approach is getting more likely. The weather is expected to deteriorate later in the morning on Friday, and the storm is expected to be the closest in the afternoon. Cyclonic winds are possible if HAIMA comes extremely close. Gales are quite likely, although there is still some uncertainty and a landfall east of Hong Kong will mean winds are somewhat weaker due to the sheltering of northerly winds. Please take all precautionary measures as soon as possible.

隨著海馬靠近,香港將於周四轉吹東北風,周五吹西北風,風勢逐漸增強。數值預報模式的預測大致維持,而隨著預測期縮短,海馬於香港近距離掠過的機會逐漸上升。預測周五早上後段天氣會轉壞,風暴將於下午最接近本港。如海馬非常接近香港,本地可能吹旋風。現時預計本港頗大機會吹烈風,但需注意預測尚有不確定性;如風暴於香港以東登陸,受地形屏蔽影響北風可能較弱。請盡早做好防風措施。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/20 (Thu 四), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

The HK Observatory will issue the #1 Standby Signal tomorrow morning.

香港天文台將於明早發出一號戒備信號。

Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1   Very High 極高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高 High 高 Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3   Low 低 High 高 Very High 極高 High 高 Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8     Low 低 High 高 Medium 中等  
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9       Medium 中等    
Hurricane 颶風 #10       Low 低    

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Wed
20h
+12
Thu
02h
+18
Thu
08h
+24
Thu
14h
+30
Thu
20h
+36
Fri
02h
+42
Fri
08h
+48
Fri
14h
+54
Fri
20h
+60
Sat
02h
+66
Sat
08h
+72
Sat
14h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 2 34 82 95 99 100 99 93 78 49 16
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 2 31 48 14 4 1
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 2 11 32 63 85 92 87 74 45 14
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 2 9 21 31 22 7 1
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 2 16 49 65 48 21 6 1
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 2 14 34 22 2 1

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 #1+ #3+ #8+
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率 100 94 74
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率 -- -- --

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+25W (HAIMA 海馬) Bulletin 發佈 #5 (2016/10/18, 16:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

STY (CAT. 4) HAIMA 四級超級颱風 海馬



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 25W / 1622
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #5
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/18, 16:30 HKT (08:30 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/18, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 15.3°N, 130.7°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 155 knots 節 (285 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 130 knots 節 (240 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 105 knots 節 (195 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 920 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

WNW 西北偏西 (286°) at 15 knots 節 (28 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

N/A 不適用


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 10/18 (Tue) 14:00 15.3°N 130.7°E W 西 (281°) 26 km/h 130 kt (241 km/h) STY (Cat. 4) 四級超級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 1903 km
t+12 10/19 (Wed) 02:00 15.8°N 127.8°E W 西 (281°) 26 km/h 135 kt (250 km/h) STY (Cat. 4) 四級超級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 1602 km
t+24 10/19 (Wed) 14:00 16.3°N 124.9°E WNW 西北偏西 (289°) 26 km/h 140 kt (259 km/h) STY (Cat. 5) 五級超級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 1307 km
t+36 10/20 (Thu) 02:00 17.2°N 122.1°E WNW 西北偏西 (300°) 28 km/h 120 kt (222 km/h) TY (Cat. 4) 四級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 1004 km
t+48 10/20 (Thu) 14:00 18.7°N 119.3°E NW 西北 (314°) 24 km/h 105 kt (194 km/h) TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 SE 東南 667 km
t+72 10/21 (Fri) 14:00 22.2°N 115.3°E N 北 (355°) 20 km/h 85 kt (157 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 E 東 117 km
t+96 10/22 (Sat) 14:00 26.6°N 114.9°E NE 東北 (051°) 24 km/h 35 kt (65 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 N 北 483 km
t+120 10/23 (Sun) 14:00 29.8°N 119.5°E N/A 20 kt (37 km/h) LPA 低壓區 NNE 東北偏北 988 km
Overview 總覽

HAIMA has intensified into a super typhoon. At 2 pm, HAIMA was centred about 1050 km (570 NM) E of Manila.

海馬已增強為超級颱風。在下午 2 時,海馬集結在馬尼拉以東約 1050 公里 (570 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

HAIMA is the 114th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by China, meaning seahorse. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.

海馬為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 114 個名字,由中國提供。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出三號強風信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

HAIMA is moving W to WNW along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge anchored in the Pacific south of Japan; such motion will continue in the next 24 hours. The subtropical ridge is retreating and HAIMA will turn WNW to NW after t+36. The storm will round the periphery of the ridge and turn more poleward in the South China Sea. A landfall east of Hong Kong is currently forecast just after t+72. HAIMA should recurve inland afterwards and may emerge into the East China Sea after t+120.

副熱帶高壓脊中心位於日本以南的太平洋上,海馬正沿其南部向西至西北偏西移動,預料此移動趨勢將於未來 24 小時維持。副高正在東退,海馬將於 36 小時後轉西北偏西至西北移動。風暴將繞副高邊沿推進,於南海時移向進一步北偏;現時預料風暴會於約 72 小時後於香港以東登陸。隨後海馬將於內陸轉向,有機會於 120 小時以後進入東海。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24 HRS

HAIMA's central dense overcast has deepened and its eye is clearly visible. The storm is expected to intensify in the next 12 to 24 hours in warm seas with low vertical wind shear, and will weaken later as it nears Luzon. HAIMA will weaken further in northern South China Sea due to the lower ocean heat content there, but should still make landfall as a typhoon. Rapid weakening ensues after landfall.

海馬的中心密集雲區變得更為深厚,其風眼清晰可見。在溫暖海域及低垂直風切變的環境下,預料風暴將於未來 12 至 24 小時增強,隨後因靠近呂宋而減弱。由於南海北部海洋熱含量較低,預料海馬將於南海繼續減弱,但仍以颱風強度登陸,其後減弱速度加快。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

As HAIMA approaches, winds will turn north on Thursday, and back to the northwest on Friday with gradual strengthening. The current forecast calls for a landfall east of Hong Kong, but there is still some uncertainty in the timing of the storm's poleward turn and thus it is not possible to determine the sequence of wind direction changes at this moment. In any case, heavy squally showers associated with HAIMA's rainbands will affect Hong Kong on Friday and Saturday.

隨著海馬靠近,香港將於周四轉吹北風,周五吹西北風,風勢逐漸增強。雖然現時預測風暴於香港以東登陸,但其轉向時間尚存在不確定性,暫時未能預計風暴登陸前後本地風向變化。但是,無論如何,海馬的雨帶將於周五至周六為本港帶來狂風大驟雨。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/19 (Wed 三), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

Note: The following probabilities do not take into account tropical cyclone SARIKA that is currently affecting southern China.

註:以下概率不包括正影響華南的熱帶氣旋莎莉嘉的部分

Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1       High 高 Very High 極高 Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3       Low 低 Medium 中等 High 高
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8         Low 低 Medium 中等
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9           Low 低
Hurricane 颶風 #10           Low 低

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]

Note: The following probabilities do not take into account tropical cyclone SARIKA that is currently affecting southern China.

註:以下概率不包括正影響華南的熱帶氣旋莎莉嘉的部分

6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Tue
20h
+12
Wed
02h
+18
Wed
08h
+24
Wed
14h
+30
Wed
20h
+36
Thu
02h
+42
Thu
08h
+48
Thu
14h
+54
Thu
20h
+60
Fri
02h
+66
Fri
08h
+72
Fri
14h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 4 24 61 79 90 94 94
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 3 20 37 19 10 5 2
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 2 11 26 47 65 75
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 2 9 16 21 18 12
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 3 13 29 38
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 3 10 16 14

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 #1+ #3+ #8+
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率 97 78 44
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率 -- -- --

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+25W (HAIMA 海馬) Bulletin 發佈 #4 (2016/10/17, 16:00 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TY (CAT. 3) HAIMA 三級颱風 海馬



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 25W / 1622
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #4
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/17, 16:00 HKT (08:00 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/17, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 13.3°N, 135.5°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 125 knots 節 (230 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 105 knots 節 (195 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 90 knots 節 (165 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 940 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

WNW 西北偏西 (291°) at 11 knots 節 (21 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

N/A 不適用


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 10/17 (Mon) 14:00 13.3°N 135.5°E WNW 西北偏西 (293°) 24 km/h 105 kt (194 km/h) TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 2464 km
t+12 10/18 (Tue) 02:00 14.3°N 133.0°E WNW 西北偏西 (287°) 26 km/h 120 kt (222 km/h) TY (Cat. 4) 四級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 2174 km
t+24 10/18 (Tue) 14:00 15.1°N 130.2°E WNW 西北偏西 (287°) 26 km/h 135 kt (250 km/h) STY (Cat. 4) 四級超級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 1865 km
t+36 10/19 (Wed) 02:00 15.9°N 127.4°E WNW 西北偏西 (286°) 28 km/h 145 kt (269 km/h) STY (Cat. 5) 五級超級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 1559 km
t+48 10/19 (Wed) 14:00 16.7°N 124.4°E WNW 西北偏西 (295°) 24 km/h 145 kt (269 km/h) STY (Cat. 5) 五級超級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 1238 km
t+72 10/20 (Thu) 14:00 18.8°N 119.5°E NW 西北 (320°) 24 km/h 110 kt (204 km/h) TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 SE 東南 677 km
t+96 10/21 (Fri) 14:00 22.7°N 115.9°E N 北 (352°) 18 km/h 85 kt (157 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 ENE 東北偏東 183 km
t+120 10/22 (Sat) 14:00 26.5°N 115.3°E N/A 35 kt (65 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 NNE 東北偏北 480 km
Overview 總覽

HAIMA is moving WNW steadily and has intensified into a category 3 typhoon. At 2 pm, HAIMA was centred about 1570 km (850 NM) E of Manila.

海馬正穩定向西北偏西移動,並增強為三級颱風。在下午 2 時,海馬集結在馬尼拉以東約 1570 公里 (850 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

HAIMA is the 114th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by China, meaning seahorse. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.

海馬為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 114 個名字,由中國提供。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出三號強風信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

HAIMA is reaching the southern edge of the subtropical ridge and is moving more equatorward. The storm will continue to move WNW in the next 48 hours with a slight increase in speed as it travels at the periphery of the ridge. After t+48, the ridge is expected to retreat and this will drive HAIMA towards the northwest as it crosses northern Luzon and enters South China Sea. The storm will move increasingly poleward in northern South China Sea, and is expected to approach southeastern China coastal areas near t+96.

海馬到達副熱帶高壓脊南沿,其移向開始西偏。預料風暴將於未來 48 小時沿該脊周邊繼續向西北偏西移動,期間移速稍為增加。48 小時後,預料副高將會東退,海馬橫過呂宋北部及進入南海時將漸轉西北移動。風暴於南海將進一步轉為北移,並於約 96 小時後靠近中國東南沿岸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS

HAIMA is intensifying steadily in a decent atmospheric environment, with a small eye embedded within a developing central dense overcast. The storm will track across warm seas with excellent divergence aloft and low to moderate vertical wind shear, and will strengthen further in the next 36 to 48 hours, potentially becoming a category 5 super typhoon with a chance of explosive deepening. The storm should weaken after t+48 as it nears land, and later in the South China Sea due to the lower ocean heat content there.

於較佳大氣環境下,海馬穩步增強,於其正在發展的中心密集雲區中有一細小風眼。風暴將橫過溫暖海域,加上沿途高空輻散良好,垂直風切變於低至中等水平,預料會於未來 36 至 48 小時進一步增強;風暴有可能達到五級超級颱風強度,亦有機會出現爆發性增強。隨著風暴靠近陸地,它將於 48 小時後減弱,之後由於海洋熱含量降低而於南海繼續減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

As HAIMA approaches, winds will back to the northeast and later north on Thursday.

隨著海馬靠近,風向將於周四逆轉至東北,較後時間將轉吹北風。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/18 (Tue 二), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率

Note: The following probabilities do not take into account tropical cyclone SARIKA that is currently affecting southern China.

註:以下概率不包括正影響華南的熱帶氣旋莎莉嘉的部分

Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1         Low 低 High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3           Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8            
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9            
Hurricane 颶風 #10            

Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]

Note: The following probabilities do not take into account tropical cyclone SARIKA that is currently affecting southern China.

註:以下概率不包括正影響華南的熱帶氣旋莎莉嘉的部分

6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Mon
20h
+12
Tue
02h
+18
Tue
08h
+24
Tue
14h
+30
Tue
20h
+36
Wed
02h
+42
Wed
08h
+48
Wed
14h
+54
Wed
20h
+60
Thu
02h
+66
Thu
08h
+72
Thu
14h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 3 13 32 52
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 3 10 19 20
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 1 4 13
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 1 4 9
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 2
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 2

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 #1+ #3+ #8+
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率 52 13 2
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率 -- -- --

Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此

+25W (HAIMA 海馬) Bulletin 發佈 #3 (2016/10/16, 15:45 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TY (CAT. 1) HAIMA 一級颱風 海馬



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 25W / 1622
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #3
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/16, 15:45 HKT (07:45 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/16, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 10.4°N, 139.2°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 80 knots 節 (150 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 70 knots 節 (130 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 65 knots 節 (120 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 970 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

NW 西北 (315°) at 6 knots 節 (10 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Seas near Yap 雅蒲島一帶海域


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 10/16 (Sun) 14:00 10.4°N 139.2°E NW 西北 (313°) 15 km/h 70 kt (130 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 2972 km
t+12 10/17 (Mon) 02:00 11.5°N 138.0°E NW 西北 (305°) 18 km/h 85 kt (157 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 2798 km
t+24 10/17 (Mon) 14:00 12.6°N 136.4°E WNW 西北偏西 (301°) 22 km/h 100 kt (185 km/h) TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 2587 km
t+36 10/18 (Tue) 02:00 13.8°N 134.3°E WNW 西北偏西 (297°) 25 km/h 115 kt (213 km/h) TY (Cat. 4) 四級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 2324 km
t+48 10/18 (Tue) 14:00 15.0°N 131.8°E WNW 西北偏西 (284°) 28 km/h 130 kt (241 km/h) STY (Cat. 4) 四級超級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 2023 km
t+72 10/19 (Wed) 14:00 16.4°N 125.7°E WNW 西北偏西 (292°) 26 km/h 145 kt (269 km/h) STY (Cat. 5) 五級超級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 1374 km
t+96 10/20 (Thu) 14:00 18.4°N 120.2°E NW 西北 (317°) 22 km/h 115 kt (213 km/h) TY (Cat. 4) 四級颱風 SE 東南 763 km
t+120 10/21 (Fri) 14:00 21.8°N 116.7°E N/A 100 kt (185 km/h) TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 266 km
Overview 總覽

HAIMA has gradually intensified into a typhoon. At 2 pm, HAIMA was centred about 150 km (80 NM) NE of Yap.

海馬逐漸增強為颱風。在下午 2 時,海馬集結在雅蒲島東北約 150 公里 (80 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

HAIMA is the 114th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by China, meaning seahorse. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.

海馬為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 114 個名字,由中國提供。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出三號強風信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

HAIMA is in the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge with an extension east of the storm, and is expected to move northwest in the next 24 hours. After t+24, HAIMA will reach the base of the subtropical ridge and should turn more equatorward, and accelerate towards northern Luzon. Numerical models are calling for a retreat of the subtropical ridge after t+72, allowing HAIMA to turn increasingly poleward towards southeastern China.

海馬處於副熱帶高壓脊以南,該脊於風暴東面亦有所南伸,預料風暴將於未來 24 小時向西北移動。24 小時後,海馬將到達副高南沿,其移向將西偏,風暴將加速趨向呂宋北部。數值模式預料副高將於 72 小時後東退,令海馬移向逐漸轉北,靠近華南沿岸。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

HAIMA has a symmetric structure and its convections cover a wide area in the Pacific. The storm will track across warm seas with excellent divergence aloft and low vertical wind shear, and is expected to intensify at above climatological rate in the next 48 to 72 hours, with substantial possibility of undergoing explosive deepening. The storm should weaken after t+72 as it nears land, and later in the South China Sea due to the lower ocean heat content there.

海馬結構對稱,對流覆蓋範圍較廣。風暴將橫過溫暖海域,加上沿途高空輻散良好,垂直風切變亦較低,預料會於未來 48 至 72 小時以高於氣候平均值速度增強,同時有不小機會出現爆發性增強。隨著風暴靠近陸地,它將於 72 小時後減弱,之後由於海洋熱含量降低而於南海繼續減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

預料海馬於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/17 (Mon 一), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
N/A 不適用
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
N/A 不適用

+25W (HAIMA 海馬) Bulletin 發佈 #2 (2016/10/15, 15:30 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TS HAIMA 熱帶風暴 海馬



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 25W / 1622
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #2
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/15, 15:30 HKT (07:30 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/15, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 9.2°N, 142.5°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 55 knots 節 (100 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 45 knots 節 (85 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 40 knots 節 (75 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 992 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

NW 西北 (312°) at 13 knots 節 (25 km/h 公里每小時)

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

Seas near Yap 雅蒲島一帶海域


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0 10/15 (Sat) 14:00 9.2°N 142.5°E NW 西北 (309°) 16 km/h 45 kt (83 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴 ESE 東南偏東 3352 km
t+12 10/16 (Sun) 02:00 10.3°N 141.1°E NW 西北 (304°) 16 km/h 55 kt (102 km/h) STS 強烈熱帶風暴 ESE 東南偏東 3159 km
t+24 10/16 (Sun) 14:00 11.3°N 139.6°E NW 西北 (304°) 16 km/h 70 kt (130 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 2962 km
t+36 10/17 (Mon) 02:00 12.3°N 138.1°E WNW 西北偏西 (303°) 20 km/h 85 kt (157 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 2766 km
t+48 10/17 (Mon) 14:00 13.5°N 136.2°E WNW 西北偏西 (296°) 25 km/h 100 kt (185 km/h) TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 2522 km
t+72 10/18 (Tue) 14:00 15.8°N 131.1°E WNW 西北偏西 (285°) 26 km/h 130 kt (241 km/h) STY (Cat. 4) 四級超級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 1917 km
t+96 10/19 (Wed) 14:00 17.2°N 125.5°E WNW 西北偏西 (287°) 25 km/h 145 kt (269 km/h) STY (Cat. 5) 五級超級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 1313 km
t+120 10/20 (Thu) 14:00 18.7°N 120.0°E N/A 100 kt (185 km/h) TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 ESE 東南偏東 727 km
Overview 總覽

Tropical depression 94W has been given the storm number 25W by the JTWC. It intensified into a tropical storm today, and was named HAIMA. At 2 pm, HAIMA was centred about 480 km (260 NM) E of Yap.

聯合颱風警報中心對熱帶低氣壓 94W 給予風暴編號 25W。25W 今天增強為熱帶風暴,被命名為海馬。在下午 2 時,海馬集結在雅蒲島以東約 480 公里 (260 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

HAIMA is the 114th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by China, meaning seahorse. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.

海馬為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 114 個名字,由中國提供。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出三號強風信號。

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

HAIMA is in the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge, but the ridge also extends southwards east of the storm. The storm is thus expected to move northwest in the next 48 hours. By t+48, HAIMA will reach the base of the subtropical ridge and should turn more equatorward, and accelerate towards northern Luzon near the end of the forecast period.

海馬處於副熱帶高壓脊以南,該脊於風暴東面亦有所南伸,預料風暴將於未來 48 小時向西北移動。48 小時後,海馬將到達副高南沿,其移向將西偏;風暴亦會加速,於預測後期趨向呂宋北部。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

HAIMA's convections extend radially and banding is becoming tight. The storm will track across warm seas with excellent divergence aloft and low vertical wind shear, and is expected to intensify at above climatological rate in the next 96 hours, with substantial possibility of undergoing explosive deepening. The storm should weaken towards t+120 as it nears land.

海馬的對流呈放射性發展,並逐漸變得緊密。風暴將橫過溫暖海域,加上沿途高空輻散良好,垂直風切變亦較低,預料會於未來 96 小時以高於氣候平均值速度增強,同時有不小機會出現爆發性增強。隨著風暴靠近陸地,它將於接近 120 小時後減弱。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

預料海馬於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/16 (Sun 日), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
N/A 不適用
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
N/A 不適用

+94W Bulletin 發佈 #1 (2016/10/14, 16:15 HKT)

Name of System 系統名稱

TD 94W 熱帶低氣壓 94W



JTWC No. / Int'l No. JTWC 編號 / 國際編號 94W / ----
Bulletin Number 發佈編號 #1
Time of Report 報告時間

2016/10/14, 16:15 HKT (08:15 UTC)

Time of Observation 觀測時間 2016/10/14, 14:00 HKT (06:00 UTC)
Position 位置 6.7°N, 144.0°E
Maximum Gust 最高陣風 35 knots 節 (65 km/h 公里每小時)
1-min. Average Wind Speed 1分鐘平均風速 25 knots 節 (45 km/h 公里每小時)
10-min. Average Wind Speed 10分鐘平均風速 20 knots 節 (35 km/h 公里每小時)
Pressure 氣壓 1004 hPa 百帕斯卡
Past 6-hr Movement 過去6小時移向和移速

N/A 不適用

Area(s) affected 受影響地區

N/A 不適用


Forecast Track 預測路徑圖

Forecast Positions 預測位置資料

Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
t+0 10/14 (Fri) 14:00 6.7°N 144.0°E NW 西北 (320°) 16 km/h 25 kt (46 km/h) TD 熱帶低氣壓
t+12 10/15 (Sat) 02:00 8.0°N 142.9°E NW 西北 (313°) 16 km/h 35 kt (65 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴
t+24 10/15 (Sat) 14:00 9.2°N 141.6°E NW 西北 (313°) 16 km/h 45 kt (83 km/h) TS 熱帶風暴
t+36 10/16 (Sun) 02:00 10.4°N 140.3°E NW 西北 (312°) 18 km/h 55 kt (102 km/h) STS 強烈熱帶風暴
t+48 10/16 (Sun) 14:00 11.7°N 138.8°E NW 西北 (309°) 20 km/h 70 kt (130 km/h) TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風
t+72 10/17 (Mon) 14:00 14.4°N 135.3°E N/A 90 kt (167 km/h) TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風
Overview 總覽

Tropical disturbance 94W in northwestern Pacific has intensified into a tropical depression. At 2 pm, 94W was centred about 720 km (390 NM) ESE of Yap.

於西北太平洋的熱帶擾動 94W 已增強為熱帶低氣壓。在下午 2 時,94W 集結在雅蒲島東南偏東約 720 公里 (390 海里)。

TC Naming 氣旋命名

N/A 不適用

Movement Analysis 路徑分析

94W is south of a subtropical ridge that has an extension building to the east of the storm. This should allow the storm to move northwest in the next 72 hours.

94W 處於副熱帶高壓脊以南,該脊於風暴東面有所伸展,預料 94W 會於未來 72 小時向西北移動。

Intensity Analysis 強度分析

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T1.5/1.5/INT OBS

94W's convections are rather disorganized at this moment but they are spinning around a well-defined centre. The storm is in warm seas with good divergence aloft, although vertical wind shear is somewhat stronger in its southern periphery. Steady intensification is expected in the next 72 hours.

94W 的對流較為散亂,但明顯繞一中心轉動。風暴處於溫暖海域,附近高空輻散良好,但南部垂直風切變較強。預料 94W 會於未來 72 小時穩步增強。

Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

預料 94W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。

Next Update 下次更新

2016/10/15 (Sat 六), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
N/A 不適用
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
N/A 不適用

Track Data from HKWW 本站之路徑資料

YYMMDDZZ Lat Long Wind
16101406 067N1440E 025
16101412 074N1440E 025
16101418 078N1441E 030
16101500 083N1435E 040
16101506 092N1425E 045
16101512 095N1414E 045
16101518 098N1403E 055
16101600 100N1396E 065
16101606 104N1392E 070
16101612 113N1387E 080
16101618 122N1378E 090
16101700 129N1366E 100
16101706 133N1355E 105
16101712 138N1345E 115
16101718 144N1333E 120
16101800 149N1322E 120
16101806 153N1307E 130
16101812 156N1291E 140
16101818 160N1275E 145
16101900 160N1260E 140
16101906 167N1247E 135
16101912 173N1232E 120
16101918 177N1216E 110
16102000 182N1201E 100
16102006 190N1189E 090
16102012 198N1174E 090
16102018 205N1165E 090
16102100 218N1157E 085
16102106 231N1151E 075
16102112 242N1150E 055
16102118 254N1153E 035
16102200 272N1164E 025

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Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Thu Apr 13 2017

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