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TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Selected TC Review / 重要熱帶氣旋回顧 > 201916W (KAJIKI 劍魚) [Refresh 更新]

201916W (KAJIKI 劍魚) - Profile 檔案

(First draft issued on September 14, 2019; final version issued on November 14, 2019)
(初稿於 2019 年 9 月 14 日發出,最後版本於 2019 年 7 月 24 日上載)

Brief profile of KAJIKI | 劍魚小檔案:

JTWC number 聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC) 號碼 16W
International number 國際編號 1914
Period of existence 生存時期 (JTWC) 2019/09/01 02 HKT - 2019/09/04 02 HKT
Lifetime 壽命 (JTWC) 3.00 days 日
Maximum 1-minute wind (JTWC) JTWC 一分鐘平均最高中心風速

30 knots 節 (Tropical Depression 熱帶低氣壓)

Minimum pressure (JTWC) JTWC 最低氣壓 995 hPa 百帕
Highest TC signal by HKO
香港天文台發出最高熱帶氣旋警告信號
3 (Strong Wind Signal 強風信號)
Closest point of approach by HKO
香港天文台所示之最接近距離
S 320 km (real-time warning 實時報告) / 330 km (TC report 熱帶氣旋報告)
Time of closest approach by HKO
香港天文台所示之最接近時間
2019/09/01 21 HKT (real-time warning and TC report 實時報告及熱帶氣旋報告)
Lowest pressure recorded at HKO
香港天文台錄得的最低氣壓
1004.5 hPa 百帕 (2019/09/01 15:23 HKT)

TC signals in Hong Kong* 香港曾經生效的熱帶氣旋警告*:

Signal
信號
Date and time
日期和時間
Distance from HK
與香港的距離
Predicted movement
預測移動趨勢
Max. 10-min winds
中心最高十分鐘平均風速
2019/09/01 (SUN) 08:40 HKT SE 490 km W at 25 km/h 45 km/h (25 knots, TD)
2019/09/01 (SUN) 16:20 HKT SSE 340 km W at 25 km/h 55 km/h (30 knots, TD)
2019/09/02 (MON) 10:40 HKT SW 580 km WSW at 20 km/h 55 km/h (30 knots, TD)
2019/09/03 (TUE) 09:20 HKT SW 990 km Slowly 55 km/h (30 knots, TD)

*Based on the information from real-time tropical cyclone warning bulletins.
*根據實時熱帶氣旋警報資料。

Percentile Ranks 百分等級:

Percentile rank among storms with #3 Signal (at compilation of this review)*:
發出三號信號之風暴中的百分等級 (編寫此回顧之時)*:

*This measures the relative wind strength in Hong Kong caused by this storm compared with others that share the same signal. 指標顯示此風暴相對於其他發出同樣信號的風暴為香港帶來之風力強度

For more information, please refer to Wind Speed Data for TCs that Have Affected Hong Kong. 更多資訊載於 影響香港氣旋之風速數據

  Overall:
總計:
24
  Moderately weak
中等偏弱
Component Ranks 分部等級
  Reference stations:
參考站:
15
  Weak
  Victoria Harbour:
維多利亞港:
40
  Moderate
中等
  Urban:
市區:
18
  Weak
  Offshore & high ground
離岸和高地:
24
  Moderately weak
中等偏弱

Cyclones that attained similar rating (with signal #3): BARIJAT (2018), JEBI (2013), MEGI (2010), FANAPI (2010), CHANTHU (2010), LUKE (1994), ANGELA (1989)
相近級別之熱帶氣旋 (三號信號):百里嘉 (2018)、飛燕 (2013)、鮎魚 (2010)、凡亞比 (2010)、燦都 (2010)、路加 (1994)、安琪拉 (1989)

IR imagery animation 紅外線雲圖動畫:

TC track from HKWW 本站的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC Track

TC tracks from HKO 天文台的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC Track

Past HKWW Bulletins 本站發佈

Please click here for bulletins on this tropical cyclone. 請按這裡

Storm Development Overview 風暴發展概覽

Unless otherwise stated, all times below are in Hong Kong Standard Time (UTC+8)
除非特別註明,下文時間均為香港標準時間 (協調世界時加 8 小時)

Tropical disturbance 91W entered eastern South China Sea on August 31. Following a period of convection development near the centre of the disturbance, the JMA issued a gale warning at 8 pm while the JTWC issued a tropical cyclone formation alert at 2 am September 1. Numerical model forecasts predicted that 91W would move west along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge, and turn southwest as it approached Hainan Island. A period of stagnation would then ensue due to the formation of another tropical cyclone near the Philippines.

91W picked up speed towards the west during the day of September 1, and reached southern Hainan in the morning of September 2. The NMC track suggested that 91W moved across southern Hainan and turned southwest into western South China Sea after 2 pm that day. Convective bursts appeared near the centre of the system and its spiraling characteristics improved during the night.

91W continued to move southwest in the small hours of September 3, and made landfall near Hue, Vietnam near 2 am. The JTWC upgraded 91W into tropical depression 16W at this time, while the JMA even upgraded it into tropical storm KAJIKI. There were significant differences between their forecast tracks as numerical models were divergent on the storm motion. At that time, tropical disturbance 94W was situated in central South China Sea east of KAJIKI. The majority of the official agencies followed the forecast that the two systems would interact and spin around a common centre in an anticlockwise fashion; this would allow KAJIKI to move east back into the South China Sea, followed by a turn to the northeast due to a developing equatorial ridge. Meanwhile, the JTWC adopted the forecast that KAJIKI would remain embedded within Indochina and dissipate gradually.

It was not at all clear whether the binary system interacted, as KAJIKI's appearance deteriorated upon landfall and a lot of the convections previously observed in central South China Sea dissipated gradually between September 3 and 4, due to the presence of tropical cyclone LINGLING in eastern Luzon Strait. Most official agencies brought KAJIKI back into the South China Sea in the night of September 3, but by that time KAJIKI's core was lacking convections, revealing an exposed low-level circulation centre. KAJIKI lingered around the seas south of the Gulf of Tonkin, and was downgraded by various agencies soon after.

Following a period of stagnation, the remnants of KAJIKI indeed picked up a northeasterly to east-northeasterly track across northern South China Sea several days later.

熱帶擾動 91W 於 8 月 31 日進入南海東部。經過一輪於 91W 中心附近的對流爆發,日本氣象廳於晚上 8 時發出烈風警報,而聯合颱風警報中心則於 9 月 1 日上午 2 時發出熱帶氣旋形成警報。數值模式整體上預料 91W 將沿副熱帶高壓脊南部西移,並於靠近海南島時轉向西南,其後因預料菲律賓附近會有另一氣旋發展而停滯。

91W 於 1 日日間加速西移,並於 2 日早上到達海南南部。中國中央氣象台路徑顯示 91W 橫過海南南部,轉向西南並於下午 2 時過後進入南海西部。當天風暴中心附近有對流爆發,晚間旋捲性有所改善。

91W 於 3 日凌晨繼續向西南移動,並於上午約 2 時登陸越南順化。聯合颱風警報中心此時將 91W 升格為熱帶低氣壓 16W,而日本氣象廳更升格為熱帶風暴劍魚。由於預報模式對劍魚的路徑預測出現分歧,日美兩國的預測路徑明顯不同。當時熱帶擾動 94W 位處劍魚東面的南海中部,大部分官方機構預測兩系統將發生相互影響,圍繞一共同中心作逆時針旋轉,這將令劍魚東移入南海,隨後因赤道高壓脊發展而轉向東北。至於聯合颱風警報中心則預料劍魚會於中南半島徘徊,並逐漸消散。

因另一氣旋玲玲當時位處呂宋海峽東部,大部分原先於南海中部的對流在 3 至 4 日逐漸消散。由於劍魚登陸後形態轉差,很難判斷劍魚最終有否與 94W 發生相互影響。大部分官方機構於 3 日晚間表示劍魚重回南海,但當時其中心已缺乏對流,其低層環流中心外露。劍魚隨後於北部灣以南海域徘徊,不久後逐漸被各機構降格。

徘徊過後,劍魚的殘餘雲帶最終如先前預測所料,數日後向東北至東北偏東移動並橫過南海北部。

Weather in Hong Kong During Approach 風暴影響時香港天氣狀況

Link to relevant HKO weather report bulletins: 1/92/93/9
香港天文台相關天氣報告連結1/92/93/9

In Hong Kong, the weather was unstable towards the end of August following the passage of tropical cyclone PODUL earlier. The HKO upgraded KAJIKI into a tropical depression and issued the #1 Standby Signal at 8:40 am September 1, when it was 490 km southeast of Hong Kong. The HKO also mentioned that it would consider the need for the #3 Signal that afternoon.

The rainbands associated with KAJIKI reached Hong Kong in the early afternoon. Many locations saw a significant rise in the wind speed; gales were briefly recorded at Cheung Chau, Tate's Cairn and Waglan Island. The #3 Strong Wind Signal was issued at 4:20 pm. Due to KAJIKI's quick motion, it had already moved to 340 km south-southeast of Hong Kong at that time. KAJIKI's rainbands continued to affect Hong Kong in the rest of the day, leading to occasional squally showers in the territory.

KAJIKI was the closest to Hong Kong near 9 pm September 1, when it was around 320 or 330 km to the south. Winds in Hong Kong generally moderated overnight, but were somewhat stronger in offshore waters and on high ground. The HKO issued the #1 Standby Signal at 10:40 am September 2, replacing the #3 Signal. A more intense rainband swept across Hong Kong near noon; the Amber Rainstorm Warning was in force between 12:25 pm and 2 pm.

In the night of September 2, the HKO indicated that strong winds were still occasionally observed in offshore waters and on high ground due to the combined effect of KAJIKI and a continental anticyclone. As a result of this and the possibility that KAJIKI would approach Hong Kong again later, the #1 Signal remained in force even though the storm was about 800 km from Hong Kong at 10 pm and continued to recede. KAJIKI moved to around 1000 km from Hong Kong at 7 am September 3 before drifting back to 990 km at the #1 Signal's eventual cancellation at 9:20 am. The HKO kept its forecast of KAJIKI moving northeast to east-northeast across the South China Sea until the storm was downgraded into an area of low pressure in the morning of September 4.

受先前熱帶氣旋楊柳橫過南海影響,本港 8 月底天氣不穩定。香港天文台於 9 月 1 日上午 8 時 40 分升格劍魚為熱帶低氣壓,並發出一號戒備信號,當時劍魚位於香港東南約 490 公里。同時,天文台表示下午將考慮是否需要改發三號信號。

與劍魚相關的雨帶於下午早段到達香港,不少地區風速隨即上揚;長洲、大老山及橫瀾島曾錄得烈風。天文台遂於下午 4 時 20 分改發三號強風信號。由於劍魚移速較快,三號信號發出之時風暴已移至香港東南偏南約 340 公里。劍魚的對流於當天餘下時間繼續影響香港,本地間中有狂風驟雨。

劍魚於 1 日下午約 9 時最接近本港,於南面約 320 至 330 公里處掠過。本港風勢普遍於凌晨緩和,但離岸及高地風勢較大。天文台於 2 日上午 10 時 40 分改發一號戒備信號,取代三號信號。一道較強烈雨帶於中午時份橫過香港,黃色暴雨警告於下午 12 時 25 分至 2 時生效。

天文台於 2 日晚間表示,受劍魚及大陸反氣旋的共同影響,本港離岸及高地仍間中吹強風。加上劍魚有可能於較後時間再度靠近香港,雖然風暴於下午 10 時位處本港約 800 公里外並進一步遠離,但一號信號仍然生效。劍魚於 3 日上午 7 時移至距港約 1000 公里,稍後距離略為縮窄至 990 公里,天文台於上午 9 時 20 分取消一號戒備信號。信號取消後,天文台繼續維持劍魚向東北至東北偏東方向橫過南海的預測,直至於 4 日早上降格劍魚為低壓區為止。

Image Gallery 圖片庫

Figure 1 - Numerical model forecast tracks at 8 pm August 31 (Image from tropicaltidbits)
圖 1 - 8 月 31 日部分數值模式預報圖 (圖像由 tropicaltidbits 網站擷取)

Figure 2 - Wind field analysis at 9:30 am September 1
圖 2 - 9 月 1 日上午 9 時 30 分之風場掃描圖

Figure 3 - Forecast track by the HKO at 11 am September 1
圖 3 - 9 月 1 日上午 11 時香港天文台之預測路徑圖

Figure 4 - A rainband moving close to Hong Kong near noon September 1
圖 4 - 9 月 1 日正午時份一道雨帶靠近本港

Figure 5 - Wind distribution in Hong Kong at 2:20 pm September 1; gales were recorded at Cheung Chau
圖 5 - 9 月 1 日下午 2 時 20 分本港風勢分布圖,留意長洲正吹烈風

Figure 6 - Satellite image of KAJIKI near its closest approach to Hong Kong
圖 6 - 劍魚最接近香港時之衛星雲圖

Figure 7 - Wind speed time series at Cheung Chau, Central Pier and Tap Mun (top to bottom) on September 1
圖 7 - 長洲、中環碼頭及塔門 (上至下) 於 9 月 1 日之風速時間序列圖

Figure 8 - Satellite image of KAJIKI at 2:10 am September 3
圖 8 - 9 月 3 日上午 2 時 10 分劍魚之衛星雲圖

Figure 9 - Weather chart at 2 am September 3 showing the low pressure systems east of KAJIKI
圖 9 - 9 月 3 日上午 2 時之天氣圖顯示劍魚以東的低壓系統

Figure 10 - Initial track forecast by the JTWC
圖 10 - 聯合颱風警報中心之初始預報路徑圖

Figure 11 - Forecast tracks by various official agencies at 8 am September 3
圖 11 - 9 月 3 日上午 8 時各官方氣象台之預測路徑圖

Figure 12 - Track probability forecast by the HKO on September 3
圖 12 - 9 月 3 日天文台之路徑概率預報

Figure 13 - Steering flow chart at 8 am September 3
圖 13 - 9 月 3 日上午 8 時之駛流場圖

Figure 14 - Wind field analysis at 9:37 pm September 3
圖 14 - 9 月 3 日下午 9 時 37 分之風場掃描圖

Figure 15 - Satellite image showing remnants of KAJIKI moving across the South China Sea on September 7
圖 15 - 9 月 7 日劍魚殘餘橫過南海之衛星圖

Winds Recorded at Reference Stations 參考站所錄得的風速

Station
風速站
Max. 10-min avg. wind speed
最高十分鐘平均風速
Beaufort classification
蒲福氏風級分類
Chek Lap Kok 赤鱲角 39 km/h Fresh 清勁
Cheung Chau 長洲 63 km/h GALE 烈風
Kai Tak 啟德 31 km/h Fresh 清勁
Lau Fau Shan 流浮山 36 km/h Fresh 清勁
Sai Kung 西貢 42 km/h STRONG 強風
Sha Tin 沙田 24 km/h Moderate 和緩
Ta Kwu Ling 打鼓嶺 21 km/h Moderate 和緩
Tsing Yi (SHL) 青衣蜆殼油庫 26 km/h Moderate 和緩

Number of stations recording at least STRONG force (force 6 - 7) winds: 2
Number of stations recording at least GALE force (force 8 - 9) winds: 1
Number of stations recording at least STORM force (force 10 - 11) winds: 0
Number of stations recording HURRICANE force (force 12) winds: 0

錄得 強風 (6 - 7 級) 或更高風速的站數: 2
錄得 烈風 (8 - 9 級) 或更高風速的站數: 1
錄得 暴風 (10 - 11 級) 或更高風速的站數: 0
錄得 颶風 (12 級) 風速的站數: 0

Charts and Figures 各項數據

Table 1: Track data from HKWW:
表一 : 香港天氣觀測站之路徑資料

YYMMDDZZ Lat Long Wind
19083112 189N1197E 025
19083118 189N1185E 025
19090100 189N1170E 025
19090106 191N1155E 030
19090112 191N1139E 030
19090118 187N1125E 030
19090200 187N1109E 030
19090206 182N1093E 030
19090212 175N1083E 030
19090218 163N1075E 030
19090300 159N1071E 030
19090306 160N1077E 030
19090312 167N1082E 030
19090318 168N1082E 025
19090400 170N1080E 025

Table 2: Maximum gust and hourly average wind speed recorded in Hong Kong from HKO:
表二 : 香港天文台公佈的各站最高每小時平均風力和陣風數據 (英文)

Station Maximum Gust Maximum Hourly Mean Wind
Direction Speed
(km/h)
Date/Month Time Direction Speed
(km/h)
Date/Month Time
Bluff Head (Stanley) ENE 68 1/9 22:54 E 31 2/9 05:00
Central Pier ESE 72 2/9 01:27 E 34 1/9 16:00
Cheung Chau E 92 2/9 01:35 E 43 2/9 09:00
Cheung Chau Beach - 83 1/9 14:09 - 51 1/9 16:00
Green Island ENE 72 2/9 09:38 ENE 51 1/9 16:00
Hong Kong International Airport E 58 1/9 14:25 E 34 1/9 15:00
E 34 1/9 16:00
E 34 1/9 17:00
Kai Tak E 54 2/9 07:38 E 25 1/9 15:00
King's Park E 54 1/9 14:37 E 22 1/9 15:00
E 54 2/9 09:56 E 22 1/9 16:00
Lamma Island E 70 2/9 07:18 E 30 2/9 09:00
Lau Fau Shan ENE 54 2/9 12:17 ENE 25 1/9 17:00
ENE 54 2/9 12:18
North Point ENE 65 1/9 15:49 E 36 1/9 20:00
Peng Chau E 75 2/9 01:41 E 40 1/9 16:00
Ping Chau E 40 2/9 13:23 E 16 2/9 14:00
Sai Kung NE 72 2/9 03:05 ENE 34 2/9 12:00
Sha Chau ESE 47 1/9 15:12 E 27 1/9 16:00
Sha Lo Wan E 56 1/9 14:33 E 27 1/9 16:00
E 56 1/9 15:07
Sha Tin NE 56 2/9 08:56 E 19 1/9 16:00
Shek Kong ENE 62 2/9 12:06 E 20 2/9 16:00
Star Ferry (Kowloon) E 59 2/9 07:15 E 27 2/9 08:00
Ta Kwu Ling ENE 41 2/9 07:43 ENE 16 1/9 16:00
Tai Mo Shan ESE 104 2/9 04:30 ESE 67 2/9 05:00
Tai Po Kau ENE 76 2/9 07:45 E 34 1/9 15:00
Tap Mun East E 77 2/9 07:52 E 45 1/9 15:00
E 45 1/9 16:00
Tate's Cairn - 85 1/9 18:56 - 54 2/9 05:00
Tseung Kwan O ENE 52 2/9 05:55 NNE 14 1/9 12:00
Tsing Yi Shell Oil Depot SE 51 1/9 14:13 ESE 20 1/9 15:00
Tuen Mun Government Offices NNE 38 1/9 12:20 NNE 12 3/9 02:00
NNE 12 3/9 03:00
Waglan Island E 96 2/9 04:29 ENE 56 1/9 16:00
Wetland Park ENE 41 2/9 08:02 E 13 1/9 16:00
Wong Chuk Hang ENE 58 1/9 15:29 ENE 22 1/9 20:00
ENE 22 2/9 11:00

Table 3: Rainfall (in millimetres) contributed by KAJIKI from HKO (figures in brackets are based on incomplete hourly data):
表三 : 香港天文台公佈的各站雨量資料 (英文) (方括號內之數據由不完整之每小時資料擷取)

Station 1-Sep 2-Sep 3-Sep Total Rainfall
(mm)
Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) 8.5 38.4 12.9 59.8
Hong Kong International Airport (HKA) 6.1 38.1 0.1 44.3
Cheung Chau (CCH) 3.5 34.0 5.0 42.5
H23 Aberdeen 3.5 27.0 1.0 31.5
N05 Fanling 13.0 88.5 11.5 113.0
N13 High Island 23.0 73.0 9.5 105.5
K04 Jordan Valley 38.5 73.5 12.5 124.5
N06 Kwai Chung 26.0 68.0 15.0 109.0
H12 Mid Levels 8.5 44.0 25.0 77.5
N09 Sha Tin 23.0 110.0 17.5 150.5
H19 Shau Kei Wan 9.5 35.0 14.5 59.0
SEK Shek Kong 24.0 88.5 [6.0] [118.5]
K06 So Uk Estate 34.5 75.0 14.0 123.5
R31 Tai Mei Tuk 19.5 80.5 5.5 105.5
R21 Tap Shek Kok 3.0 40.5 2.5 46.0
N17 Tung Chung 7.5 31.5 13.0 52.0
TMR Tuen Mun Reservoir [2.9] 59.9 4.6 [67.4]

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Mon Sep 28 2020 21:13:31 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Thu Aug 20 2020

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