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TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Selected TC Review / 重要熱帶氣旋回顧 > 202105W (KOGUMA 小熊) [Refresh 更新]

202105W (KOGUMA 小熊) - Profile 檔案

(First draft issued on June 14, 2021; final version issued on July 23, 2021)
(初稿於 2021 年 6 月 14 日發出,最後版本於 2021 年 7 月 23 日上載)

Brief profile of KOGUMA | 小熊小檔案:

JTWC number 聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC) 號碼 05W
International number 國際編號 2104
Period of existence 生存時期^ 2021/06/11 14 HKT - 2021/06/13 14 HKT
Maximum 1-minute wind (JTWC) JTWC 一分鐘平均最高中心風速

35 knots 節 (Tropical Storm 熱帶風暴)

Minimum pressure (JTWC) JTWC 最低氣壓 996 hPa 百帕
Highest TC signal by HKO
香港天文台發出最高熱帶氣旋警告信號
1 (Standby Signal 戒備信號)
Closest point of approach by HKO
香港天文台所示之最接近距離
SSW 480 km (real-time warning 實時報告 / TC report 熱帶氣旋報告)
Time of closest approach by HKO
香港天文台所示之最接近時間
2021/06/11 21 HKT (real-time warning 實時報告) / 20 HKT (TC report 熱帶氣旋報告)
Lowest pressure recorded at HKO
香港天文台錄得的最低氣壓
1004.0 hPa 百帕 (2021/06/11 17:44 HKT)

^Refers to the period between the HK Observatory's first and last bulletins for the tropical cyclone (with at least tropical depression intensity). For storms formed/dissipated/transformed into an extratropical cyclone outside the area bounded by 7-36°N and 100-140°E, information from the JTWC will be used instead.
^即香港天文台為該熱帶氣旋 (熱帶低氣壓級或更高) 作出發佈的時期。至於在北緯 7 至 36 度、東經 100 至 140 度外形成/消散/轉化為溫帶氣旋的風暴,本網將參考聯合颱風警報中心的資料。

TC signals in Hong Kong* 香港曾經生效的熱帶氣旋警告*:

Signal
信號
Date and time
日期和時間
Distance from HK
與香港的距離
Predicted movement
預測移動趨勢
Max. 10-min winds
中心最高十分鐘平均風速
2021/06/11 (FRI) 16:15 HKT SSW 500 km WNW at 15 km/h 45 km/h (25 knots, TD)
2021/06/12 (SAT) 14:10 HKT SW 640 km W/WNW at 18 km/h 55 km/h (30 knots, TD)

*Based on the information from real-time tropical cyclone warning bulletins.
*根據實時熱帶氣旋警報資料。

Percentile Ranks 百分等級:

Percentile ranks are only available for cyclones that necessitated at least the No. 3 Strong Wind Signal. 百分等級只適用於曾令天文台發出三號強風信號 (或更高) 的熱帶氣旋。

IR imagery animation 紅外線雲圖動畫:

TC track from HKWW 本站的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC Track

TC track from HKO 天文台的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC Track

Past HKWW Bulletins 本站發佈

Please click here for bulletins on this tropical cyclone. 請按這裡

Storm Development Overview 風暴發展概覽

Unless otherwise stated, all times below are in Hong Kong Standard Time (UTC+8)
除非特別註明,下文時間均為香港標準時間 (協調世界時加 8 小時)

A broad area of low pressure developed in the South China Sea on June 10 and 11. The low pressure, designated as tropical disturbance 92W by the JTWC, had acquired the characteristics of a monsoon depression. It had a loose centre and winds were stronger in the periphery than near its centre.

As 92W showed signs of intensification, the JTWC issued a tropical cyclone formation alert in the afternoon of June 11. The JMA issued a gale warning at the same time, while the NMC of China upgraded the system into a tropical depression. Situated along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, 92W was forecast to move west-northwest towards Hainan Island and northern Vietnam over the next few days.

92W made landfall in Lingshui county of southern Hainan before 10 am June 12. It continued its way through the island, consolidating at the same time. The JTWC upgraded 92W into tropical depression 05W in the morning, while the JMA upgraded it into a tropical storm in the afternoon, naming it KOGUMA. KOGUMA entered the Gulf of Tonkin later that afternoon, and moved west-northwest during the night. KOGUMA reached its peak intensity while it travelled across the Gulf.

KOGUMA made its second and final landfall in northern Vietnam in the morning of June 13. The storm weakened gradually on land and into an area of low pressure that night.

一道廣闊低壓區於 6 月 10 至 11 日在南海發展,聯合颱風警報中心給予擾動編號 92W。92W 的中心鬆散,外圍風速較近中心強,皆為季風低壓的典型特徵。

11 日,92W 有跡象增強,聯合颱風警報中心於下午發出熱帶氣旋形成警報。另一方面,日本氣象廳於下午發出烈風警告,而中國中央氣象台則將 92W 升格為熱帶低氣壓。92W 當時位於副熱帶高壓脊的西南沿,預料向西北偏西移動,於未來數天趨向海南島及越南北部。

92W 於 12 日上午 10 時前登陸海南陵水縣,隨後橫過該島並逐漸整合。聯合颱風警報中心於上午將 92W 升格為熱帶低氣壓 05W,而日本氣象廳於當日下午將其升格為熱帶風暴,並命名為小熊。小熊於下午稍後進入北部灣,並於晚間向西北偏西移動。小熊於橫過北部灣時達到其巔峰強度。

小熊於 13 日上午於越南北部作最後一次登陸,其後於陸上減弱,於晚間減弱為低壓區。

Weather in Hong Kong During Approach 風暴影響時香港天氣狀況

Link to relevant HKO weather report bulletins: 11/612/6
香港天文台相關天氣報告連結11/612/6

In Hong Kong, there were a few showers prior to KOGUMA's formation in the South China Sea. On June 11, the HK Observatory issued the #1 Standby Signal at 4:15 pm, shortly after upgrading the low pressure area into a tropical depression. The depression was expected to be closest to Hong Kong that evening and in the night, passing at a distance of around 500 km.

The cloud and rainbands associated with KOGUMA's outer circulation affected Hong Kong that night. The downpour mainly affected Hong Kong Island, Kowloon and eastern New Territories; the Amber Rainstorm Warning was in force between 8:25 and 10:45 pm. Winds during the night were somewhat stronger than that morning, with moderate to fresh easterly winds blowing in most places. Strong force winds were occasionally observed in offshore waters and on high ground, such as Cheung Chau, Tate's Cairn and Waglan Island. Meanwhile, gale force winds were recorded at Ngong Ping, also an elevated location.

KOGUMA was closest to Hong Kong near 8 pm June 11, when it was around 480 km south-southwest of the territory. As KOGUMA moved west, winds in Hong Kong veered to the southeast in the morning of June 12. The gusts associated with another rainband led to a momentary surge in wind speed over parts of Hong Kong between 9 am and 10 am. Sustained winds at Cheung Chau, one of the eight reference stations, reached 62 km/h, just 1 km/h short of the gale force threshold. Gusts at Ngong Ping and Cheung Chau reached 117 km/h and 90 km/h, respectively.

Local winds moderated in the afternoon of June 12, and the #1 Standby Signal was cancelled at 2:10 pm, when KOGUMA was situated around 640 km to the southwest. The weather remained unstable that night with occasional heavy showers.

香港方面,小熊於南海形成前天氣已不穩定,間中有驟雨。香港天文台於 6 月 11 日下午升格該低壓區為熱帶低氣壓,不久後於下午 4 時 15 分發出一號戒備信號。預料該熱帶低氣壓將於當日傍晚及晚間最接近香港,在西南 500 公里左右處掠過。

與小熊外圍環流相關的雲雨帶於 11 日晚影響香港,大雨主要影響港島、九龍及新界東部,黃色暴雨警告於下午 8 時 25 分至 10 時 45 分間生效。本港整體風勢比上午稍強,大多數地方吹和緩至清勁偏東風,而離岸及高地如長洲、大老山及橫瀾島等地間中吹強風,昂坪更吹烈風。

小熊於 11 日下午約 8 時最接近香港,當時位於本港西南偏南約 480 公里。隨著小熊西移,本地風向於 12 日早上順轉至東南。一道雨帶於上午 9 至 10 時靠近,其相關陣風令部分地方風勢短暫急升。參考風速站之一的長洲持續風力達每小時 62 公里,比烈風下限只低 1 公里;昂坪、長洲的陣風曾分別達每小時 117 及 90 公里。

本地風勢於 12 日下午緩和,一號戒備信號於下午 2 時 10 分取消,小熊當時位於香港西南約 640 公里。信號取消後,當晚本港天氣仍然不穩定,間中有大驟雨。

Image Gallery 圖片庫

Figure 1 - GFS ensemble forecast for 92W at 8 am June 10 [Image from Tropical Tidbits]
圖 1 - 6 月 10 日上午 8 時之 GFS 模式集成預報圖 [圖像取自 Tropical Tidbits]

Figure 2 - Wind field analysis map at 8:20 am June 11. Stronger winds were observed in the periphery of the low pressure area.
圖 2 - 6 月 11 日上午 8 時 20 分之風場掃描圖,可見低壓區周邊的風速較高

Figure 3 - Satellite image of the low pressure area in the South China Sea
圖 3 - 位於南海的低壓區之衛星雲圖

Figure 4 - Initial track and intensity forecast map issued by the HKO on the tropical depression
圖 4 - 香港天文台為熱帶低氣壓首次發佈的路徑及強度預測圖

Figure 5 - Wind field analysis map at 10:55 am June 12
圖 5 - 6 月 12 日上午 10 時 55 分之風場掃描圖

Figure 6 - Steering flow chart at 8 am June 12
圖 6 - 6 月 12 日上午 8 時之駛流場分佈圖

Figure 7 - Satellite image of KOGUMA as it crossed the Gulf of Tonkin
圖 7 - 小熊橫過北部灣時之衛星雲圖

Figure 8 - Wind speed time series at Cheung Chau on June 11-12
圖 8 - 長洲於 6 月 11-12 日之風速時間序列圖

Figure 9 - Maximum gusts recorded over Hong Kong near 9:30 am June 12
圖 9 - 6 月 12 日上午約 9 時 30 分前後本港各區錄得的最高陣風

Figure 10 - Rainfall distribution map for June 11 (left) and 12 (right)
圖 10 - 6 月 11 (左) 及 12 日 (右) 之雨量分佈圖

Winds Recorded at Reference Stations 參考站所錄得的風速

The following table lists the maximum 10-minute average (sustained) wind speed recorded while tropical cyclone signals were in force. In some occasions, it is possible that the strongest winds were not recorded when the highest signal was in force.

下表列出各站於熱帶氣旋警告信號生效時所錄得的最高 10 分鐘平均 (持續) 風速,留意此風速不一定於最高信號生效期間錄得。

Station
風速站
Max. 10-min avg. wind speed
最高十分鐘平均風速
Beaufort classification
蒲福氏風級分類
Chek Lap Kok 赤鱲角 35 km/h* Fresh 清勁
Cheung Chau 長洲 62 km/h STRONG 強風
Kai Tak 啟德 32 km/h Fresh 清勁
Lau Fau Shan 流浮山 35 km/h Fresh 清勁
Sai Kung 西貢 48 km/h STRONG 強風
Sha Tin 沙田 Below "fresh" threshold of 31 km/h 低於「清勁」下限的 31 km/h
Ta Kwu Ling 打鼓嶺 Below "fresh" threshold of 31 km/h 低於「清勁」下限的 31 km/h
Tsing Yi (SHL) 青衣蜆殼油庫 Below "fresh" threshold of 31 km/h 低於「清勁」下限的 31 km/h

*A sustained wind speed of 37 km/h was recorded at Chek Lap Kok near 4 pm June 11 before the issuance of the #1 Signal, and near 3 pm June 12 after the cancellation of the #1 Signal.
*一號信號發出前,赤鱲角曾於 6 月 11 日下午約 4 時錄得持續風速每小時 37 公里。一號信號取消後,該地於 6 月 12 日下午約 3 時亦錄得相同風速。

Number of stations recording at least STRONG force (force 6 - 7) winds: 2
Number of stations recording at least GALE force (force 8 - 9) winds: 0
Number of stations recording at least STORM force (force 10 - 11) winds: 0
Number of stations recording HURRICANE force (force 12) winds: 0

錄得 強風 (6 - 7 級) 或更高風速的站數: 2
錄得 烈風 (8 - 9 級) 或更高風速的站數: 0
錄得 暴風 (10 - 11 級) 或更高風速的站數: 0
錄得 颶風 (12 級) 風速的站數: 0

Charts and Figures 各項數據

Table 1: Track data from HKWW:
表一 : 香港天氣觀測站之路徑資料

YYMMDDZZ Lat Long Wind
21061106 175N1130E 025
21061112 181N1123E 025
21061118 182N1113E 030
21061200 184N1102E 030
21061206 189N1089E 035
21061212 195N1075E 035
21061218 197N1065E 040
21061300 198N1056E 035
21061306 198N1047E 030

Table 2: Maximum gust and hourly average wind speed recorded in Hong Kong from HKO:
表二 : 香港天文台公佈的各站最高每小時平均風力和陣風數據 (英文)

Maximum Gust
Maximum Hourly Mean Wind
Direction
Speed (km/h)
Date/Month
Time
Direction
Speed (km/h)
Date/Month
Time
Central Pier E 55 11/6 21:04 E 33 11/6 18:00
Cheung Chau SE 90 12/6 09:28 ESE 46 12/6 07:00
Cheung Chau Beach E 94 12/6 09:28 ENE 42 12/6 01:00
Green Island ENE 83 11/6 21:00 ENE 41 11/6 17:00
ENE 41 11/6 18:00
Hong Kong International Airport ESE 59 12/6 09:48 E 32 11/6 17:00
E 32 11/6 18:00
Kai Tak ENE 64 11/6 22:29 E 28 12/6 10:00
King's Park E 51 11/6 20:55 E 21 11/6 17:00
ESE 51 11/6 20:56 E 21 11/6 18:00
E 21 12/6 05:00
Lamma Island ESE 65 12/6 09:29 ESE 26 12/6 10:00
Lau Fau Shan E 50 11/6 17:12 E 30 11/6 18:00
Ngong Ping E 117 12/6 09:40 E 68 12/6 02:00
North Point E 56 11/6 20:54 E 32 11/6 18:00
Peng Chau SE 59 12/6 09:39 E 36 11/6 17:00
E 36 11/6 18:00
Ping Chau SE 32 12/6 10:44 E 12 11/6 18:00
E 12 12/6 03:00
Sai Kung SSE 62 12/6 09:56 ENE 28 11/6 17:00
ENE 28 12/6 03:00
Sha Chau SSE 65 12/6 09:53 SE 30 12/6 11:00
SE 30 12/6 14:00
Sha Lo Wan SE 58 12/6 10:18 E 19 11/6 19:00
E 19 12/6 08:00
Sha Tin SSE 43 12/6 09:26 SSE 15 12/6 10:00
SSE 15 12/6 11:00
Star Ferry (Kowloon) ESE 54 11/6 18:27 E 27 12/6 02:00
ESE 54 12/6 07:17
Ta Kwu Ling E 39 12/6 05:09 ESE 15 12/6 09:00
Tai Mei Tuk E 71 12/6 04:57 ENE 38 12/6 04:00
Tai Mo Shan ESE 98 12/6 05:04 ESE 65 12/6 06:00
Tai Po Kau SE 62 12/6 10:05 E 29 11/6 18:00
Tap Mun East - 67 12/6 04:43 - 43 12/6 07:00
Tate's Cairn ESE 82 12/6 02:46 ESE 49 12/6 01:00
Tseung Kwan O ESE 43 12/6 09:47 ESE 11 12/6 10:00
Tsing Yi Shell Oil Depot ESE 54 11/6 16:31 ESE 19 11/6 17:00
Tuen Mun Government Offices SE 53 12/6 09:55 SE 21 12/6 14:00
Waglan Island E 66 11/6 18:53 E 48 12/6 00:00
Wetland Park E 32 11/6 16:26 E 14 11/6 17:00
ENE 32 11/6 17:06
Wong Chuk Hang ENE 63 11/6 19:11 ENE 18 12/6 02:00

Table 3: Rainfall (in millimetres) contributed by KOGUMA from HKO (figures in brackets are based on incomplete hourly data):
表三 : 香港天文台公佈的各站雨量資料 (英文) (方括號內之數據由不完整之每小時資料擷取)

11-Jun
12-Jun
Total Rainfall
(mm)
Hong Kong Observatory (HKO)
31.2
30.3
61.5
Hong Kong International Airport (HKA)
20.0
15.3
35.3
Cheung Chau (CCH)
3.0
[5.5]
[8.5]
H23 Aberdeen
18.0
24.0
42.0
N05 Fanling
9.0
35.5
44.5
N13 High Island
16.0
24.0
40.0
K04 Jordan Valley
51.5
28.5
80.0
N06 Kwai Chung
28.0
30.5
58.5
H12 Mid Levels
23.0
33.5
56.5
N09 Sha Tin
19.0
40.0
59.0
H19 Shau Kei Wan
41.0
20.0
61.0
SEK Shek Kong
18.5
[25.0]
[43.5]
K06 So Uk Estate
44.0
21.0
65.0
R31 Tai Mei Tuk
9.0
28.0
37.0
R21 Tap Shek Kok
16.5
21.0
37.5
N17 Tung Chung
23.0
11.0
34.0
TMR Tuen Mun Reservoir
13.9
25.5
39.4

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Thu Oct 06 2022 16:04:50 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Sat Oct 30 2021

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