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TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Selected TC Review / 重要熱帶氣旋回顧 > 202210W (MA-ON 馬鞍) [Refresh 更新]

202210W (MA-ON 馬鞍) - Profile 檔案

(First draft issued on September 3, 2022, final version issued on January 21, 2023)
(初稿於 2022 年 9 月 3 日發出，最後版本於 2023 年 1 月 21 日上載)

Brief profile of MA-ON | 馬鞍小檔案:

^Refers to the period between the HK Observatory's first and last bulletins for the tropical cyclone (with at least tropical depression intensity). For storms formed/dissipated/transformed into an extratropical cyclone outside the area bounded by 7-36°N and 100-140°E, information from the JTWC will be used instead.
^即香港天文台為該熱帶氣旋 (熱帶低氣壓級或更高) 作出發佈的時期。至於在北緯 7 至 36 度、東經 100 至 140 度外形成／消散／轉化為溫帶氣旋的風暴，本網將參考聯合颱風警報中心的資料。

^&Based on HKWW track information.
^&基於本站路徑資料。

TC signals in Hong Kong* 香港曾經生效的熱帶氣旋警告*:

Signal 信號	Date and time 日期和時間	Distance from HK 與香港的距離	Predicted movement 預測移動趨勢	Max. 10-min winds 中心最高十分鐘平均風速
	2022/08/23 (TUE) 21:10 HKT	ESE 770 km	NW/WNW at 22 km/h	90 km/h (50 knots, STS)
	2022/08/24 (WED) 12:40 HKT	SE 440 km	WNW at 25 km/h	110 km/h (60 knots, STS)
	2022/08/24 (WED) 19:25 HKT	SSE 310 km	WNW at 28 km/h	110 km/h (60 knots, STS)
	2022/08/25 (THU) 01:40 HKT	SSW 200 km	WNW at 28 km/h	110 km/h (60 knots, STS)
	2022/08/25 (THU) 09:20 HKT	WSW 280 km	W/WNW at 28 km/h	110 km/h (60 knots, STS)
	2022/08/25 (THU) 14:10 HKT	W 380 km	W/WNW at 28 km/h	105 km/h (55 knots, STS)
	2022/08/25 (THU) 16:10 HKT	W 460 km	W at 35 km/h	90 km/h (50 knots, STS)

*Based on the information from real-time tropical cyclone warning bulletins.
*根據實時熱帶氣旋警報資料。

Percentile Ranks 百分等級:

IR imagery animation 紅外線雲圖動畫:

TC track from HKWW 本站的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC track from HKO 天文台的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

Past HKWW Bulletins 本站發佈

Please click here for bulletins on this tropical cyclone. 請按這裡。

Storm Development Overview 風暴發展概覽

Unless otherwise stated, all times below are in Hong Kong Standard Time (UTC+8)
除非特別註明，下文時間均為香港標準時間 (協調世界時加 8 小時)

Tropical disturbance 93W formed in the northwest Pacific east of the Philippines in mid-August. Some numerical models, most notably ECMWF, had predicted the disturbance to develop and potentially enter the South China Sea at such an early stage. 93W showed some signs of intensification on August 21. That afternoon, the JTWC issued a tropical cyclone formation alert, the JMA issued a gale warning, and the NMC upgraded the disturbance into a tropical depression. The JTWC made the upgrade at 8 pm that night, assigning the storm number 10W. By that time, most numerical models had converged to the outcome that 10W would enter the South China Sea later that week, but there was considerable spread in the possible landfall location.

Affected by a ridge in southeastern China, 10W moved west-southwest towards the seas east of Luzon on August 21 and early August 22. As the subtropical ridge developed east of 10W, the storm slowed down on August 22 and turned north-northwest. It was upgraded into a tropical storm by the JMA at 11 am, and was given the name MA-ON. Although MA-ON's circulation expanded on August 22, the rather strong vertical wind shear in the region prevented convections from developing in its northeastern quadrant.

MA-ON was able to intensify into a severe tropical storm on August 23 as the shear weakened. The storm became more symmetrical as it made landfall in the eastern Luzon province of Isabela at around 10:30 am. It moved west-northwest across northern Philippines, and entered the South China Sea that night. While MA-ON's core became less compact than before, its circulation expanded further and it remained as a severe tropical storm.

MA-ON maintained a steady track towards the west-northwest as it crossed northern South China Sea, accelerating in the process. It encountered strong vertical wind shear again on August 24, displacing its convections towards the southwestern quadrant. The NMC upgraded MA-ON into a typhoon at 8 pm August 24, the only official agency to do so (the HKO revised MA-ON's peak intensity to typhoon strength in its TC report). According to the NMC, MA-ON made landfall near Dianbai, Guangdong at around 10:30 am August 25.

Almost immediately after landfall, MA-ON turned west and crossed western Guangdong. It entered Guangxi in the afternoon of August 25 and several agencies indicated that MA-ON entered the Gulf of Tonkin briefly. MA-ON made its final landfall in northern Vietnam that night as a tropical storm, and continued to move west quickly. It weakened gradually into an area of low pressure on August 26.

熱帶擾動 93W 於 8 月中旬在菲律賓以東的西北太平洋形成。部分數值模式，包括歐洲中期天氣預報，已於 93W 形成初期估計該擾動會發展，並有機會進入南海。93W 於 8 月 21 日有增強跡象，聯合颱風警報中心於當天下午為其發出熱帶氣旋形成警報。同時間日本氣象廳發出烈風警告，而中國中央氣象台則將其升格為熱帶低氣壓。聯合颱風警報中心於當日下午 8 時作出升格，並給予風暴編號 10W。當時大部分數值模式預報已漸趨一致，顯示 10W 將於該周較後時間進入南海，但對於其登陸點仍有頗大分歧。

受一道位於中國東南部的高壓脊影響，10W 於 8 月 21 及 22 日早段向西南偏西移動，趨向呂宋以東海域。隨著副熱帶高壓脊於 10W 以東發展，風暴於 22 日減速並轉向西北偏北。日本氣象廳於上午 11 時將 10W 升格為熱帶風暴，命名為馬鞍。雖然馬鞍的環流於 22 日有所擴展，但該區垂直風切變頗強，抑制了馬鞍東北象限的對流發展。

8 月 23 日，垂直風切變水平有所放緩，馬鞍增強為強烈熱帶風暴，其雲帶變得較為對稱。風暴於上午 10 時 30 分左右登陸呂宋東部的伊莎貝拉省。登陸後，風暴向西北偏西移動，橫過菲律賓北部，並於當晚進入南海。雖然馬鞍的結構不如先前緊密，但其環流進一步擴大，並維持強烈熱帶風暴強度。

馬鞍隨後橫過南海北部，期間穩定向西北偏西移動，並有所加速。風暴於 8 月 24 日再次受較強垂直風切變影響，令其對流被切離至西南象限。中央氣象台於 24 日下午 8 時將馬鞍升格為颱風，是唯一一個官方機構作出此升格 (香港天文台於其後發佈的熱帶氣旋報告中將馬鞍的巔峰強度上調至颱風級)。翌日，該台表示馬鞍於上午約 10 時 30 分登陸廣東電白一帶。

登陸後，馬鞍隨即轉向偏西移動，橫過廣東西部。風暴於 8 月 25 日下午進入廣西，部分官方氣象機構顯示馬鞍曾短暫進入北部灣。馬鞍於當晚以熱帶風暴強度登陸越南北部，並繼續向西快速移動。它於 26 日逐漸減弱為低壓區。

Weather in Hong Kong During Approach 風暴影響時香港天氣狀況

Link to relevant HKO weather report bulletins: 23/8 ● 24/8 ● 25/8
香港天文台相關天氣報告連結： 23/8 ● 24/8 ● 25/8

Because of the potential for MA-ON to be very close to Hong Kong or even score a direct hit, the storm received widespread public attention in the initial stages of its formation. The direct hit prediction made by the HK Observatory on August 22 had even led some media agencies to compare MA-ON with recent storms that necessitated the #10 Signal, such as HATO in 2017 and MANGKHUT in 2018. In a blog post posted on August 22, the Observatory explained that the weather would deteriorate on Wednesday (August 24), and the storm surge might coincide with the timing of the astronomical tide to produce higher water levels that could lead to flooding in low-lying areas.

In the morning of August 23, the Observatory indicated that the #1 Standby Signal would be considered that night. The 9-day weather forecast issued that morning predicted southeasterly winds of force 7-8 (strong to gale force), reaching force 11 (storm force) at offshore and elevated areas, in the morning of August 25. Affected by MA-ON's subsidence, it was very hot and hazy that day. MA-ON came to within 800 km of Hong Kong as it entered the South China Sea near 8 pm. The #1 Signal was issued at 9:10 pm when MA-ON was about 770 km east-southeast of the territory.

As the track forecast continued to shift to the west, it became apparent on August 23 that MA-ON would make landfall west of Hong Kong rather than scoring a direct hit. The Observatory initially indicated that the #1 Signal would remain in force at least until 6 am August 24, and later said that the #3 Strong Wind Signal would be considered between noon and 2 pm that day. Due to the persistent vertical wind shear in the South China Sea, there were few convective activities in MA-ON's northern side. The weather in Hong Kong remained fine in the early part of August 24.

Local winds started to pick up in the late morning of August 24. The Observatory foresaw the possibility of the weather deteriorating rapidly later in the day; at 10 am, it made a rare move to indicate that the #8 Gale or Storm Signal would be considered between 6 and 9 pm even before the #3 Signal was issued. By the time the #3 Signal was issued at 12:40 pm, MA-ON had moved to about 440 km southeast of Hong Kong. While stronger than in the morning, winds generally remained below the strong force threshold. However, within the next few hours, east to northeasterly winds in the territory strengthened gradually; Waglan Island first registered strong force winds near 2 pm, and gale force winds just an hour later. Other offshore and elevated stations such as Cheung Chau, Green Island, Ngong Ping, Tai Mei Tuk, Tap Mun and Tate's Cairn were among the first to observe strong force winds or above.

By around 5 pm, strong force winds were observed within the Victoria Harbour, as winds at Central Pier and North Point picked up. The Observatory issued the Pre-No. 8 Special Announcement at 5:25 pm, giving a two-hour advance warning to the public before the signal upgrade. Local ferry services gradually suspended after the announcement. Cargo handling at the terminals had already been suspended earlier that afternoon.

At 7:25 pm, the Observatory issued the #8 Northeast Gale or Storm Signal. Still as a severe tropical storm, MA-ON was located around 310 km south-southeast of Hong Kong at that time. It was projected to be within 200 km of the territory at its closest point of approach, and the Observatory said that the #8 Signal would remain in force at least until 6 am the next morning. Gale force winds were observed in most of the aforementioned offshore and elevated locations at the time of the issuance of the #8 Signal, some with gusts reaching storm force; strong force winds were observed more widely within Hong Kong. A weak rainband crossed the territory near 7 pm but did not produce widespread precipitation.

Over the next couple of hours, MA-ON passed to the south of Hong Kong. Another rainband arrived at 11 pm but the resulting rain was short-lived. Local winds strengthened further in the night and were generally the strongest near midnight or in the small hours of August 25. However, at an elevation of over 600 metres, Ngong Ping was the only station to register sustained storm force winds during MA-ON's approach.

The wind direction started to turn southeast after 1 am August 25. This prompted the Observatory to replace the #8 Northeast Signal by the Southeast Signal at 1:40 am. While several stations such as Cheung Chau experienced an increase in wind speed after winds turned southeasterly, many others saw the opposite as they then became sheltered, including those within the Victoria Harbour. MA-ON was closest to Hong Kong near 2 am, passing at a distance of 190 km to the south-southwest. Rain became more frequent towards dawn, but winds generally moderated except for a few stations in the southern parts of the territory.

At 6 am, the Observatory announced that the #3 Strong Wind Signal would be considered between 9 and 11 am. The storm surge was milder than previously predicted; the high tide that morning was around 0.5 metre above normal, and did not result in serious flooding in vulnerable places such as Tai O and Lei Yue Mun. The Observatory issued the #3 Signal at 9:20 am, just 35 minutes after they had announced that the signal change would occur "shortly". This action was criticized by some residents who had to wait for the resumption of public transport in adverse weather conditions so as to return to their workplaces within 2 hours of the signal downgrade.

Winds in Hong Kong diminished further after MA-ON made landfall in western Guangdong. By noon, strong winds were confined to offshore areas and high ground. The #3 Signal was replaced by the #1 Standby Signal at 2:10 pm, while the latter was cancelled at 4:10 pm. Several rainbands affected Hong Kong during the day, and more than 50 mm of rain was recorded over parts of the territory on August 25. With the establishment of an anticyclone, the weather improved quickly and there were sunny periods the following day. During MA-ON's approach, the government received four reports of fallen trees and one flooding report. One person was injured and sought medical assistance at the Accident and Emergency Department of public hospitals.

由於馬鞍有機會相當接近甚至直趨香港，風暴形成初時受大眾關注。香港天文台於 8 月 22 日曾預測馬鞍登陸香港，部分傳媒更以過往需發出十號信號的熱帶氣旋作比較，如 2017 年的天鴿及 2018 年的山竹。同日，天文台於網誌「天氣隨筆」解釋香港天氣將於周三 (24 日) 轉壞，而風暴潮來臨的時間或會與天文大潮重疊，水位上升將有機會令低窪地區出現水浸。

8 月 23 日早上，天文台表示將於晚間考慮發出一號戒備信號。當天早上的九天天氣預報顯示 25 日早上吹 7 至 8 級 (強風至烈風) 東南風，離岸及高地達 11 級 (暴風)。受馬鞍的下沉氣流影響，當天天氣酷熱並有煙霞。馬鞍於下午約 8 時進入南海，並進入本港 800 公里範圍。天文台於下午 9 時 10 分發出一號信號，當時馬鞍於香港東南偏東約 770 公里。

隨著預測路徑逐漸西移，至 8 月 23 日已大致確定馬鞍會於香港以西登陸，而不會直趨香港。天文台最初表示一號信號將於 24 日上午 6 時前維持，其後預計三號強風信號將於當天正午至下午 2 時發出。由於南海垂直風切變持續處於較高水平，馬鞍北部對流活動稀少，24 日早段香港天氣良好。

8 月 24 日早上後段，本地風勢開始增強。天文台預示當天稍後時間天氣會快速轉壞，罕有地於三號信號發出前已表示會考慮於下午 6 至 9 時改發八號烈風或暴風信號。三號信號於下午 12 時 40 分發出，馬鞍已移至香港東南約 440 公里。雖然風勢較早上強，但大部分地區風力仍於強風以下。然而在接下來的數小時間，本港東至東北風逐漸增強。橫瀾島於下午 2 時左右吹強風，約一小時後已吹烈風。其他離岸及位處高地的站點如長洲、青洲、昂坪、大美督、塔門及大老山等亦率先錄得強風或以上風速。

至約下午 5 時，維港內的中環碼頭及北角吹強風。天文台於下午 5 時 25 分發出預警八號熱帶氣旋警告信號之特別報告，給予市民兩小時的預警。預警發出後，本地渡輪服務相繼暫停，而貨櫃交收則於下午較早時間已陸續暫停。

八號東北烈風或暴風信號於下午 7 時 25 分發出，當時馬鞍位於香港東南偏南約 310 公里，並維持強烈熱帶風暴強度。天文台預測馬鞍將於香港 200 公里範圍內掠過，八號信號會至少維持至翌日上午 6 時。先前提及的離岸及高地站多數於改發八號信號時已吹烈風，部分陣風更達暴風程度，而本港其他地區普遍吹強風。一道弱雨帶於下午 7 時左右橫過本港，但並未帶來廣泛降雨。

其後數小時馬鞍於香港以南掠過。另一道雨帶於下午約 11 時抵達，但雨勢仍較短暫。晚間本地風勢進一步增強，整晚風力大致於 8 月 25 日午夜至凌晨到達頂峰。可是，位於海拔超過 600 米的昂坪是馬鞍襲港時唯一一個持續風力達暴風水平的測風站。

香港於 8 月 25 日上午 1 時後開始轉吹東南風，天文台於上午 1 時 40 分以八號東南烈風或暴風信號取代東北信號。雖然數站如長洲轉吹東南風後風勢增強，但亦有不少地方因受遮蔽而風力減弱，包括維港內的站點。馬鞍於上午約 2 時最接近香港，於西南偏南約 190 公里處掠過。臨近破曉時份降雨轉趨頻密，但除南部少數地區外，本港風勢普遍開始緩和。

上午 6 時，天文台宣佈會於上午 9 至 11 時考慮改發三號強風信號。馬鞍所帶來的風暴潮較先前預計溫和，當天早上的漲潮較正常高約 0.5 米，大澳及鯉魚門等較容易水浸的地方並未受嚴重影響。天文台於表示「即將」作出信號轉變後 35 分鐘，即上午 9 時 20 分改發三號信號。由於部分市民需於惡劣天氣環境下等待公共交通服務恢復，以趕及於八號信號取消後兩小時內返回工作地點，天文台的迅速改發信號決定受到一些批評。

馬鞍於廣東西部登陸後，本地風力進一步減弱。中午時份，強風局限於離岸及高地。三號信號於下午 2 時 10 分被一號戒備信號取代，而後者亦於下午 4 時 10 分取消。當天數條雨帶影響香港，部分地區 8 月 25 日共錄得超過 50 毫米雨量。隨著反氣旋建立，本地天氣快速好轉，翌日部分時間有陽光。馬鞍襲港時政府共接獲 4 宗塌樹及 1 宗水浸報告；1 人在風暴中受傷並於公立醫院急症室接受治療。

Image Gallery 圖片庫

Figure 1 - GFS (left) and ECMWF (right) ensemble forecast track and intensity at 8 am August 20 and 21, respectively (source: Tropical Tidbits, Easterlywave)
圖 1 - 8 月 20 日上午 8 時之 GFS (左) 及 21 日上午 8 時之 ECMWF (右) 集成預報路徑及強度 (來源：Tropical Tidbits, Easterlywave)

Figure 2 - Satellite image of MA-ON east of Luzon
圖 2 - 馬鞍於呂宋以東時之衛星雲圖

Figure 3 - HKO's forecast track at 5 pm August 22
圖 3 - 香港天文台於 8 月 22 日下午 5 時之預測路徑圖

Figure 4 - Forecast tracks from various official agencies on August 22 (top) and 23 (bottom)
圖 4 - 8 月 22 日 (上) 及 23 日 (下) 各官方氣象台之預測路徑

Figure 5 - HKO's mean sea level pressure probability forecast issued on August 22
圖 5 - 8 月 22 日香港天文台之平均海平面氣壓概率預報

Figure 6 - HKO's track probability forecast for MA-ON on August 23
圖 6 - 8 月 23 日香港天文台為馬鞍發出的路徑概率預報

Figure 7 - HKO's 9-day weather forecast issued on August 23 (in Chinese)
圖 7 - 8 月 23 日香港天文台之九天天氣預報

Figure 8 - Weather photo taken from the Victoria Peak at 6 pm August 23; it was hazy in Hong Kong before MA-ON's approach.
圖 8 - 8 月 23 日下午 6 時於太平山頂所拍攝的天氣照片，顯示馬鞍靠近前香港有煙霞

Figure 9 - 500 hPa upper-level weather map at 8 am August 24
圖 9 - 8 月 24 日上午 8 時之 500 百帕高空天氣圖

Figure 10 - Distribution of vertical wind shear (top) and steering flow chart (bottom) at 8 am August 24
圖 10 - 8 月 24 日上午 8 時之垂直風切變 (上) 及駛流場 (右) 分佈圖

Figure 11 - Satellite imagery of MA-ON at 4 pm August 24
圖 11 - 8 月 24 日下午 4 時馬鞍之衛星雲圖

Figure 12 - Radar image at 3:48 am August 25. MA-ON was near its closest point of approach to Hong Kong at that time.
圖 12 - 8 月 25 日上午 3 時 48 分之雷達圖，此時馬鞍最為接近香港

Figure 13 - Local wind distribution maps at 4-hour intervals from 3 pm August 24 to 11 am August 25
圖 13 - 8 月 24 日下午 3 時至 25 日上午 11 時每 4 小時之本港風勢分布圖

Figure 14 - Wind speed time series at Cheung Chau, Ngong Ping, North Point and Waglan Island for August 24 and 25
圖 14 - 長洲、昂坪、北角及橫瀾島 (上至下) 於 8 月 24 及 25 日之風速時間序列圖

Figure 15 - Observed (blue) and predicted (red) tide at Tai O (left) and Tsim Bei Tsui (right) during MA-ON's approach
圖 15 - 馬鞍靠近時大澳 (左) 及尖鼻咀 (右) 之實測 (藍色) 及預測 (紅色) 潮汐

Figure 16 - Rainfall distribution map for August 25
圖 16 - 8 月 25 日之雨量分佈圖

Winds Recorded at Reference Stations 參考站所錄得的風速

The following table lists the maximum 10-minute average (sustained) wind speed recorded while tropical cyclone signals were in force. In some occasions, it is possible that the strongest winds were not recorded when the highest signal was in force.

下表列出各站於熱帶氣旋警告信號生效時所錄得的最高 10 分鐘平均 (持續) 風速，留意此風速不一定於最高信號生效期間錄得。

Charts and Figures 各項數據

Table 1: Track data from HKWW:
表一 : 香港天氣觀測站之路徑資料

Table 2: Maximum gust and hourly average wind speed recorded in Hong Kong from HKO:
表二 : 香港天文台公佈的各站最高每小時平均風力和陣風數據 (英文)

Table 3: Rainfall (in millimetres) contributed by MA-ON from HKO (figures in brackets are based on incomplete hourly data):
表三 : 香港天文台公佈的各站雨量資料 (英文) (方括號內之數據由不完整之每小時資料擷取)

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Fri Apr 19 2024 00:49:33 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Mon Jul 24 2023