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熱帶氣旋 > 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動動態 [更新] [English]

實時南方濤動指數

資料來源:請按此。此南方濤動指數是由1887至1989年的基數計算所得資料每天 (公眾假期除外) 在澳洲東部標準時間下午2時更新一次

日期 大溪地之氣壓 (百帕) 達爾文之氣壓 (百帕) 每天數值 30天平均南方濤動指數 90天平均南方濤動指數
4-Apr-2020 1009.82 1009.00 -11.32 (+4.76) -7.05 (-0.62) -3.03 (-0.33)
3-Apr-2020 1009.31 1009.15 -16.08 (-5.41) -6.43 (-0.8) -2.70 (-0.31)
2-Apr-2020 1010.56 1009.65 -10.67 (-16) -5.63 (-0.43) -2.39 (-0.03)
1-Apr-2020 1012.13 1009.00 5.33 (+6.81) -5.20 (+0.44) -2.36 (+0.25)
31-Mar-2020 1012.55 1008.75 -1.48 (+5.13) -5.64 (+0.54) -2.61 (+0.06)
30-Mar-2020 1011.33 1008.60 -6.61 (+4.74) -6.18 (+0.31) -2.67 (-0.03)
29-Mar-2020 1010.34 1008.60 -11.35 (+4.26) -6.49 (-0.44) -2.64 (-0.14)
28-Mar-2020 1010.10 1009.25 -15.61 (+2.39) -6.05 (-1.05) -2.50 (-0.16)
27-Mar-2020 1010.35 1010.00 -18.00 (-7.66) -5.00 (-1.14) -2.34 (-0.06)
26-Mar-2020 1011.20 1009.25 -10.34 (-5.17) -3.86 (-0.75) -2.28 (+0.07)
25-Mar-2020 1011.53 1008.50 -5.17 (+4.50) -3.11 (-0.42) -2.35 (+0.26)
24-Mar-2020 1010.94 1008.85 -9.67 (+3.02) -2.69 (-0.49) -2.61 (+0.21)
23-Mar-2020 1011.91 1010.45 -12.69 (-6.18) -2.20 (-0.63) -2.82 (+0.10)
22-Mar-2020 1013.90 1011.15 -6.51 (+0.81) -1.57 (-0.57) -2.92 (+0.03)
21-Mar-2020 1014.43 1011.85 -7.32 (+0.91) -1.00 (-0.39) -2.95 (+0.05)
20-Mar-2020 1013.94 1011.55 -8.23 (+6.37) -0.61 (+0.25) -3.00 (+0.07)
19-Mar-2020 1013.01 1011.95 -14.60 (+6.56) -0.86 (+0.12) -3.07 (-0.07)
18-Mar-2020 1011.89 1012.20 -21.16 (-6.18) -0.98 (-0.11) -3.00 (-0.16)
17-Mar-2020 1012.83 1011.85 -14.98 (-11.44) -0.87 (+0.11) -2.84 (-0.08)
16-Mar-2020 1012.97 1009.60 -3.54 (-7.61) -0.98 (+0.61) -2.76 (+0.11)
15-Mar-2020 1012.81 1007.85 4.07 (+3.54) -1.59 (+0.71) -2.87 (+0.22)
14-Mar-2020 1013.02 1008.80 0.53 (+1.06) -2.30 (+0.43) -3.09 (+0.17)
13-Mar-2020 1014.20 1010.20 -0.53 (-2.64) -2.73 (+0.29) -3.26 (+0.12)
12-Mar-2020 1014.25 1009.70 2.11 (+1.11) -3.02 (-0.04) -3.38 (+0.06)
11-Mar-2020 1012.82 1008.50 1.00 (+8.90) -2.98 (-0.29) -3.44 (+0.03)
10-Mar-2020 1011.41 1008.95 -7.90 (-4.74) -2.69 (-0.37) -3.47 (-0.15)
9-Mar-2020 1011.75 1008.30 -3.16 (-1.87) -2.32 (-0.23) -3.32 (-0.01)
8-Mar-2020 1012.24 1008.40 -1.29 (+3.78) -2.09 (-0.02) -3.31 (+0.04)
7-Mar-2020 1011.60 1008.55 -5.07 (-3.73) -2.07 (-0.17) -3.35 (-0.11)
6-Mar-2020 1011.18 1007.35 -1.34 -1.90 -3.24




圖表: 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 來源: 澳洲昆士蘭州政府

厄爾尼諾-南方濤動報告 (只提供英文版,來源請按此)

Issued on 31 March 2020

El Ni簽oSouthern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole neutral

The tropical Pacific remains neutral with respect to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and sea surface and sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean all continue to persist at levels consistent with neutral ENSO.

Six of the eight climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO is likely to stay neutral through the southern hemisphere winter, meaning it may have limited influence on Australian and global climate in the coming months. The remaining two models suggest La Niña may develop during winter. However, ENSO predictions made during autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current ENSO forecasts beyond May should be used with some caution.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April. Of the six international climate models surveyed, most indicate neutral IOD for the coming months. One model briefly reaches positive levels at the end of autumn, while several tend towards negative levels during the southern hemisphere winter. However, similar to ENSO, accuracy of IOD forecasts beyond autumn is low.

Recently the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has been positive but is forecast to return to neutral levels over the next few days and then remain neutral for the following three weeks. SAM has little influence upon Australian rainfall in autumn.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to move into the Australian region, but its influence on rainfall over northern Australia is likely to be short-lived or insignificant, as it weakens rapidly in early April.


SOI summary:

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 29 March was −5.8, falling around 5 points over the past fortnight. The 90-day value was −2.0. Both values are well within the ENSO neutral range.

Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions. 


Sea surface temperature summary:

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the week ending 29 March were slightly warmer than average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but remain within the neutral range. Water has cooled slightly in the western equatorial Pacific compared to two weeks ago.

SSTs also remain warmer than average around most of Australia. SSTs are up to two degrees warmer than average around most of Western Australia, and up to one degree warmer than average across large parts of the Coral Sea and the Tasman Sea.

The latest values of the three key NINO indices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 29 March were: NINO3 +0.4 °C, NINO3.4 +0.5 °C and NINO4 +0.6 °C. 


ENSO outlooks:

Six of the eight international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region will remain at ENSO-neutral levels through the southern hemisphere winter. The remaining two models exceed the La Niña threshold during winter.

ENSO predictions made during autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current ENSO forecasts beyond May should be used with some caution.

ENSO events, that is, either El Niño or La Niña, typically begin to develop during autumn, before strengthening in winter/spring. The Bureau will continue to closely monitor the potential for either to develop this year.

最近訪問日期: Sun Apr 05 2020 01:52:50 HKT
最近修訂日期: Wed Jul 24 2019

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