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熱帶氣旋 > 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動動態 [更新] [English]
 實時南方濤動指數 |
資料來源：請按此。此南方濤動指數是由1887至1989年的基數計算所得。資料每天 (公眾假期除外) 在澳洲東部標準時間下午2時更新一次。
| 日期 | 大溪地之氣壓 (百帕) | 達爾文之氣壓 (百帕) | 每天數值 | 30天平均南方濤動指數 | 90天平均南方濤動指數 |
| 23/8/2017 | 1016.26 | 1013.65 | 6.01 (-3.15) | 4.32 (+0.13) | 1.06 (+0.04) |
| 22/8/2017 | 1015.63 | 1012.50 | 9.16 (-0.43) | 4.19 (+0.13) | 1.02 (+0.16) |
| 21/8/2017 | 1015.50 | 1012.30 | 9.59 (+4.98) | 4.06 (-0.18) | 0.86 (+0.15) |
| 20/8/2017 | 1015.23 | 1012.85 | 4.61 (-12.44) | 4.24 (-0.75) | 0.71 (+0.02) |
| 19/8/2017 | 1016.98 | 1012.55 | 17.05 (-5.59) | 4.99 (-0.29) | 0.69 (+0.06) |
| 18/8/2017 | 1016.95 | 1011.60 | 22.64 (+7.83) | 5.28 (+0.31) | 0.63 (+0.06) |
| 17/8/2017 | 1015.16 | 1011.10 | 14.81 (+0.61) | 4.97 (+0.20) | 0.57 (+0.09) |
| 16/8/2017 | 1015.76 | 1011.80 | 14.20 (+8.56) | 4.77 (+0.03) | 0.48 (+0.04) |
| 15/8/2017 | 1015.50 | 1012.95 | 5.64 (+5.46) | 4.74 (-0.28) | 0.44 (-0.02) |
| 14/8/2017 | 1015.40 | 1013.75 | 0.18 (-6.37) | 5.02 (-0.54) | 0.46 (-0.07) |
| 13/8/2017 | 1016.35 | 1013.65 | 6.55 (-7.96) | 5.56 (-0.23) | 0.53 (-0.02) |
| 12/8/2017 | 1017.11 | 1013.10 | 14.51 (+1.34) | 5.79 (+0.55) | 0.55 (+0.11) |
| 11/8/2017 | 1017.04 | 1013.25 | 13.17 (+12.93) | 5.24 (+0.89) | 0.44 (+0.07) |
| 10/8/2017 | 1014.86 | 1013.20 | 0.24 (+20.33) | 4.35 (+0.39) | 0.37 (+0.05) |
| 9/8/2017 | 1012.31 | 1014.00 | -20.09 (+6.86) | 3.96 (-0.72) | 0.32 (+0.02) |
| 8/8/2017 | 1011.13 | 1013.95 | -26.95 (-10.74) | 4.68 (-1.22) | 0.30 (-0.1) |
| 7/8/2017 | 1012.50 | 1013.55 | -16.21 (-12.39) | 5.90 (-0.96) | 0.40 (-0.01) |
| 6/8/2017 | 1013.74 | 1012.75 | -3.82 (-6.79) | 6.86 (-0.42) | 0.41 (+0.13) |
| 5/8/2017 | 1014.06 | 1011.95 | 2.97 (-2.31) | 7.28 (-0.23) | 0.28 (+0.20) |
| 4/8/2017 | 1014.64 | 1012.15 | 5.28 (+4.61) | 7.51 (-0.25) | 0.08 (+0.20) |
| 3/8/2017 | 1014.38 | 1012.65 | 0.67 (-0.91) | 7.76 (-0.25) | -0.12 (+0.14) |
| 2/8/2017 | 1015.18 | 1013.30 | 1.58 (-4.12) | 8.01 (+0.33) | -0.26 (+0.16) |
| 1/8/2017 | 1016.56 | 1014.00 | 5.70 (-4.15) | 7.68 (+0.71) | -0.42 (+0.08) |
| 31/7/2017 | 1015.85 | 1013.30 | 9.85 (-0.49) | 6.97 (+0.57) | -0.50 (+0.15) |
| 30/7/2017 | 1016.53 | 1013.90 | 10.34 (+1.29) | 6.40 (+0.55) | -0.65 (+0.25) |
| 29/7/2017 | 1016.52 | 1014.10 | 9.05 (-2.21) | 5.85 (+0.47) | -0.90 (+0.33) |
| 28/7/2017 | 1016.63 | 1013.85 | 11.26 (+6.71) | 5.38 (+0.43) | -1.23 (+0.24) |
| 27/7/2017 | 1014.69 | 1013.00 | 4.55 (+3.50) | 4.95 (+0.26) | -1.47 (+0.04) |
| 26/7/2017 | 1013.42 | 1012.30 | 1.05 (+5.11) | 4.69 (-0.07) | -1.51 (-0.19) |
| 25/7/2017 | 1012.69 | 1012.40 | -4.06 | 4.76 | -1.32 |
圖表： 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 來源： 澳洲昆士蘭州政府
| 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動報告 (只提供英文版，來源請按此) |
Issued on 15 August 2017
ENSO neutral likely for the remainder of 2017
The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to stay ENSO neutral for the remainder of 2017.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled over much of the central tropical Pacific during the past four weeks, and are now close to the long-term average, and within the neutral range. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) also remains neutral, having steadied over the past three weeks. Other indicators of ENSO, such as cloudiness near the Date Line and trade winds are also at neutral levels.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also remains neutral with consensus amongst climate models suggesting neutral conditions are likely to persist. Some models suggest positive IOD thresholds could be reached in the coming months but these values are unlikely to be sustained long enough to classify as a positive IOD event. Positive IOD events are typically associated with below average winter and spring rainfall over central and southern Australia.
SOI summary:
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 13 August is within the neutral range at +4.7 (90-day value +1.0), having steadied over the past three weeks.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Sea surface temperature summary:
For the week ending 13 August sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were close to average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Generally weak warm anomalies are present across much of the South Pacific, with stronger anomalies around much of the east coast and southeast Australia.
The NINO3.4 SST anomaly has continued to cool during the past fortnight, and is now at 0.0 °C. NINO3 has also cooled, to +0.1 °C, while NINO4 has warmed slightly during the past week and is now +0.4 °C.
ENSO outlooks:
All eight of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist until at least the end of 2017.
最近訪問日期: Thu Aug 24 2017 14:40:21 HKT
最近修訂日期: Mon Jul 11 2016
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