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熱帶氣旋 > 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動動態 [更新] [English]

實時南方濤動指數

資料來源:請按此。此南方濤動指數是由1887至1989年的基數計算所得資料每天 (公眾假期除外) 在澳洲東部標準時間下午2時更新一次

日期 大溪地之氣壓 (百帕) 達爾文之氣壓 (百帕) 每天數值 30天平均南方濤動指數 90天平均南方濤動指數
20/1/2018 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 (+1.84) 1.24 (+0.63) 4.03 (+0.18)
19/1/2018 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 (-3.44) 0.61 (+0.54) 3.85 (+0.12)
18/1/2018 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 (-4.85) 0.07 (+0.81) 3.73 (+0.10)
17/1/2018 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 (+5.74) -0.74 (+1.08) 3.63 (+0.15)
16/1/2018 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 (+5.05) -1.82 (+1.23) 3.48 (+0.09)
15/1/2018 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 (+6.02) -3.05 (+1.04) 3.39 (-0.01)
14/1/2018 1013.64 1007.75 6.04 (+1.18) -4.09 (+0.62) 3.40 (-0.1)
13/1/2018 1013.79 1008.15 4.86 (-4) -4.71 (+0.45) 3.50 (-0.18)
12/1/2018 1013.34 1006.85 8.86 (+0.28) -5.16 (+0.47) 3.68 (-0.08)
11/1/2018 1013.53 1007.10 8.58 (+9.71) -5.63 (+0.67) 3.76 (+0.04)
10/1/2018 1012.57 1008.20 -1.13 (+4.99) -6.30 (+0.30) 3.72 (-0.07)
9/1/2018 1011.86 1008.55 -6.12 (+4.05) -6.60 (-0.25) 3.79 (-0.28)
8/1/2018 1010.70 1008.25 -10.17 (+4.76) -6.35 (-0.71) 4.07 (-0.33)
7/1/2018 1009.09 1007.65 -14.93 (+1.83) -5.64 (-0.81) 4.40 (-0.21)
6/1/2018 1007.50 1006.45 -16.76 (-10.55) -4.83 (-0.79) 4.61 (-0.28)
5/1/2018 1009.54 1006.25 -6.21 (-6.4) -4.04 (-0.56) 4.89 (-0.3)
4/1/2018 1011.50 1006.85 0.19 (-7.73) -3.48 (-0.52) 5.19 (-0.22)
3/1/2018 1012.94 1006.65 7.92 (-3.63) -2.96 (+0.04) 5.41 (-0.06)
2/1/2018 1012.81 1005.75 11.55 (+4.76) -3.00 (+0.30) 5.47 (-0.08)
1/1/2018 1012.50 1006.45 6.79 (+0.87) -3.30 (-0.14) 5.55 (-0.21)
31/12/2017 1012.26 1007.40 5.92 (+6.96) -3.16 (-0.27) 5.76 (-0.26)
30/12/2017 1011.77 1008.25 -1.04 (-1.45) -2.89 (-0.75) 6.02 (-0.16)
29/12/2017 1011.80 1008.00 0.41 (+2.80) -2.14 (-0.5) 6.18 (-0.12)
28/12/2017 1010.91 1007.65 -2.39 (+11.73) -1.64 (-1.09) 6.30 (-0.19)
27/12/2017 1009.00 1008.00 -14.12 (-2.65) -0.55 (-1.11) 6.49 (-0.29)
26/12/2017 1008.91 1007.40 -11.47 (-3.11) 0.56 (-0.36) 6.78 (-0.26)
25/12/2017 1008.61 1006.50 -8.36 (+1.50) 0.92 (-0.33) 7.04 (-0.26)
24/12/2017 1006.92 1005.10 -9.86 (+2.75) 1.25 (-0.65) 7.30 (-0.27)
23/12/2017 1006.79 1005.50 -12.61 (-2.96) 1.90 (-0.91) 7.57 (-0.23)
22/12/2017 1008.41 1006.55 -9.65 2.81 7.80




圖表: 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 來源: 澳洲昆士蘭州政府

厄爾尼諾-南方濤動報告 (只提供英文版,來源請按此)

Issued on 16 January 2018

Weak La Ni簽a continues over the Pacific

A weak La Niña pattern continues in the tropical Pacific. This event is likely to be at or near its peak, with most models suggesting this La Niña will end during the southern autumn.

Sea surface temperatures currently show a clear La Niña pattern, with coolest waters concentrated in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Likewise, some atmospheric indicators such as trade winds and cloudiness also show a clear La Niña signal. However, a continuing build-up of warmer water beneath the surface of the western Pacific is a likely precursor to the end of this event.

In order for 2017–18 to be classed as a La Niña year, thresholds need to be exceeded for at least three months. Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this event is likely to last through the southern summer, and decay in the early southern autumn of 2018, so these thresholds are likely to be met.

La Niña typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during summer, particularly in northern New South Wales and Queensland. However, a weak La Niña will have less influence on Australian rainfall than a strong event. La Niña events can also increase the likelihood of prolonged warm spells for southeast Australia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. IOD events are unable to form between December and April.


SOI summary:

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 14 January is −1.6 (90-day value +3.7). The 30-day and 90-day SOI values steadily declined throughout December, and have remained within the neutral range for January to date. This related to the late onset of the monsoon at Darwin, which has so far had only very weak monsoonal flow. Values of the SOI over the past week have risen, but remain on the negative side.

In the austral summer the SOI is more volatile and should be viewed as being a secondary indicator of ENSO.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.


Sea surface temperature summary:

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain cooler than average in the central and eastern tropical Pacific for the week ending 14 January. Anomalies are generally similar to those of two weeks ago.

Latest values for the week ending 14 January are: NINO3 −0.9 °C, NINO3.4 −0.7 °C, NINO4 −0.1 °C.

A marine heatwave with large positive SST anomalies persists across the Tasman Sea, extending from southeastern Australia to New Zealand. These shallow warm anomalies developed during the second half of November. Long-lived blocking high pressure systems during both November and December and associated light winds and sunny skies in combination with the background warming trend allowed record temperatures to be reached.

Positive SST anomalies are also present across large areas to the north of Australia, across the Maritime Continent, and in the far western Pacific. This pattern, as well as cooler than average waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, are typical during La Niña.

Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values cooler than −0.8 °C are typically indicative of La Niña, while persistent values warmer than +0.8 °C are typical of El Niño.


ENSO outlooks:

International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that it is likely the event has reached, or will soon reach, its peak. Most of the models indicate that equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to warm over the coming months, returning to neutral values between late in the austral summer and mid-autumn. However, three of the eight models maintain temperatures near La Niña thresholds well into the austral autumn. Only one out of the eight models maintains La Niña levels into winter (July).

In order for 2017–18 to be considered a La Niña year, NINO3 or NINO3.4 values cooler than −0.8 °C need to be observed for at least three months.

最近訪問日期: Sun Jan 21 2018 16:28:04 HKT
最近修訂日期: Mon Jul 11 2016

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