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熱帶氣旋 > 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動動態 [更新] [English]
 實時南方濤動指數 |
資料來源：請按此。此南方濤動指數是由1887至1989年的基數計算所得。資料每天 (公眾假期除外) 在澳洲東部標準時間下午2時更新一次。
| 日期 | 大溪地之氣壓 (百帕) | 達爾文之氣壓 (百帕) | 每天數值 | 30天平均南方濤動指數 | 90天平均南方濤動指數 |
| 18-Aug-2019 | 1017.45 | 1014.60 | 7.46 (+/-0.00) | 0.07 (+0.45) | -7.28 (+0.19) |
| 17-Aug-2019 | 1017.60 | 1014.75 | 7.46 (+23.67) | -0.38 (+0.66) | -7.47 (+0.09) |
| 16-Aug-2019 | 1014.80 | 1015.85 | -16.21 (+3.64) | -1.04 (-0.17) | -7.56 (-0.3) |
| 15-Aug-2019 | 1014.60 | 1016.25 | -19.85 (-1.95) | -0.87 (-0.45) | -7.26 (-0.39) |
| 14-Aug-2019 | 1015.02 | 1016.35 | -17.90 (-6.31) | -0.42 (-0.1) | -6.87 (-0.23) |
| 13-Aug-2019 | 1015.86 | 1016.15 | -11.59 (-8.25) | -0.32 (+0.49) | -6.64 (-0.1) |
| 12-Aug-2019 | 1016.37 | 1015.30 | -3.34 (-5.46) | -0.81 (+0.55) | -6.54 (+0.08) |
| 11-Aug-2019 | 1016.02 | 1014.05 | 2.12 (-18.03) | -1.36 (+0.74) | -6.62 (+0.18) |
| 10-Aug-2019 | 1017.44 | 1012.50 | 20.15 (-2.79) | -2.10 (+1.32) | -6.80 (+0.46) |
| 9-Aug-2019 | 1017.40 | 1012.00 | 22.94 (+3.22) | -3.42 (+1.06) | -7.26 (+0.51) |
| 8-Aug-2019 | 1016.77 | 1011.90 | 19.72 (+3.15) | -4.48 (+1.20) | -7.77 (+0.27) |
| 7-Aug-2019 | 1015.90 | 1011.55 | 16.57 (+10.74) | -5.68 (+1.48) | -8.04 (+0.26) |
| 6-Aug-2019 | 1015.43 | 1012.85 | 5.83 (+7.77) | -7.16 (+0.69) | -8.30 (+0.23) |
| 5-Aug-2019 | 1014.95 | 1013.65 | -1.94 (+9.77) | -7.85 (-0.02) | -8.53 (+0.13) |
| 4-Aug-2019 | 1014.44 | 1014.75 | -11.71 (+7.04) | -7.83 (-0.27) | -8.66 (-0.07) |
| 3-Aug-2019 | 1014.28 | 1015.75 | -18.75 (-4.24) | -7.56 (-0.54) | -8.59 (-0.21) |
| 2-Aug-2019 | 1014.93 | 1015.70 | -14.51 (-7.04) | -7.02 (-0.49) | -8.38 (-0.17) |
| 1-Aug-2019 | 1015.09 | 1014.70 | -7.47 (-10.61) | -6.53 (-0.51) | -8.21 (-0.08) |
| 31-Jul-2019 | 1015.36 | 1013.90 | 3.14 (-6.77) | -6.02 (+0.14) | -8.13 (-0.1) |
| 30-Jul-2019 | 1016.11 | 1013.55 | 9.91 (+0.68) | -6.16 (+0.64) | -8.03 (+0.01) |
| 29-Jul-2019 | 1016.70 | 1014.25 | 9.23 (+10.03) | -6.80 (+1.17) | -8.04 (+0.12) |
| 28-Jul-2019 | 1015.27 | 1014.45 | -0.80 (-7.2) | -7.97 (+0.88) | -8.16 (+0.04) |
| 27-Jul-2019 | 1015.74 | 1013.75 | 6.40 (+0.61) | -8.85 (+1.22) | -8.20 (+0.06) |
| 26-Jul-2019 | 1015.74 | 1013.85 | 5.79 (+11.39) | -10.07 (+0.84) | -8.26 (+0.03) |
| 25-Jul-2019 | 1014.74 | 1014.70 | -5.60 (-2.03) | -10.91 (-0.05) | -8.29 (-0.08) |
| 24-Jul-2019 | 1013.92 | 1013.55 | -3.57 (-2.03) | -10.86 (-0.09) | -8.21 (-0.02) |
| 23-Jul-2019 | 1013.80 | 1013.10 | -1.54 (-7.08) | -10.77 (+0.57) | -8.19 (+0.09) |
| 22-Jul-2019 | 1014.30 | 1012.45 | 5.54 (+8.00) | -11.34 (+1.58) | -8.28 (+0.06) |
| 21-Jul-2019 | 1013.50 | 1012.95 | -2.46 (+0.37) | -12.92 (+1.10) | -8.34 (+0.01) |
| 20-Jul-2019 | 1013.84 | 1013.35 | -2.83 | -14.02 | -8.35 |
圖表： 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 來源： 澳洲昆士蘭州政府
| 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動報告 (只提供英文版，來源請按此) |
Issued on 6 August 2019
Indian Ocean temperature patterns continue as key Australian climate influence
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral, but sea surface temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean are likely to remain the key influence on Australia's climate for the coming months.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index rose back above the positive IOD threshold this week. While the index has fluctuated around the positive IOD threshold, the broader Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, cloud and wind patterns have been consistent with a positive IOD since late May.
Climate models forecast positive IOD conditions for the remainder of the southern hemisphere winter and spring. Typically, a positive IOD brings below average winter–spring rainfall to southern and central Australia, and above average daytime temperatures for the southern two-thirds of Australia.
In the tropical Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. Most atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are close to average, resulting in normal tropical Pacific cloud patterns and rainfall.
All climate models indicate the tropical Pacific is likely to remain ENSO-neutral for the rest of 2019, meaning other climate drivers are likely to continue to be the main influences on Australian and global weather.
SOI summary:
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) continues to hover near the El Niño threshold. The SOI for the 30 days ending 4 August was −8.1, with the 90-day value −9.2.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Sea surface temperature summary:
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the week ending 4 August remain warmer than average across the central and western equatorial Pacific Ocean, but overall patterns are consistent with a neutral ENSO state. Most of the northern half of the Pacific Ocean is warmer than average, as well as the southwestern quarter. Across the southeastern quarter, SSTs are close to average, with some parts along the equator and down the South American coastline slightly cooler than average.
SSTs are also warmer than average around the east of Australia and southwest Australia. Around the remainder of the Australian coastline, SSTs are broadly close to average, with weak negative anomalies along parts of the northern and southern coastline. Also visible are the cooler than average waters to the northwest of Australia, near the Indonesian islands of Java and Sumatra. Cooler waters in this area typically occur during a positive IOD.
The latest values of the three key NINO indices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 4 August are: NINO3 −0.1 °C, NINO3.4 +0.3 °C and NINO4 +0.9 °C. While NINO4 in the west has warmed slightly in the past fortnight, NINO3 and NINO3.4 have cooled by 0.4 °C and 0.2 °C, respectively.
Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values warmer than +0.8 °C are typical of El Niño, while persistent values cooler than −0.8 °C typically indicate La Niña.
ENSO outlooks:
All eight surveyed international climate models indicate central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region will remain at ENSO-neutral levels at least until the end of 2019.
最近訪問日期: Mon Aug 19 2019 09:38:28 HKT
最近修訂日期: Wed Jul 24 2019
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