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熱帶氣旋 > 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動動態 [更新] [English]
 實時南方濤動指數 |
資料來源：請按此。此南方濤動指數是由1887至1989年的基數計算所得。資料每天 (公眾假期除外) 在澳洲東部標準時間下午2時更新一次。
| 日期 | 大溪地之氣壓 (百帕) | 達爾文之氣壓 (百帕) | 每天數值 | 30天平均南方濤動指數 | 90天平均南方濤動指數 |
| 1-Mar-2021 | 1009.94 | 1007.60 | -8.47 (-3.04) | 10.48 (-0.51) | 14.43 (-0.33) |
| 28-Feb-2021 | 1009.96 | 1006.35 | -5.43 (-6.87) | 10.99 (-0.48) | 14.76 (-0.37) |
| 27-Feb-2021 | 1009.84 | 1004.80 | 1.44 (+11.00) | 11.47 (-0.65) | 15.13 (-0.2) |
| 26-Feb-2021 | 1007.90 | 1005.15 | -9.56 (+5.23) | 12.12 (-1.33) | 15.33 (-0.12) |
| 25-Feb-2021 | 1008.06 | 1006.40 | -14.79 (-11.33) | 13.45 (-1.34) | 15.45 (-0.2) |
| 24-Feb-2021 | 1010.22 | 1006.20 | -3.46 (-11) | 14.79 (-0.45) | 15.65 (-0.1) |
| 23-Feb-2021 | 1011.86 | 1005.55 | 7.54 (-10.71) | 15.24 (+0.06) | 15.75 (+0.02) |
| 22-Feb-2021 | 1012.44 | 1003.90 | 18.25 (-1.54) | 15.18 (+0.45) | 15.73 (+0.18) |
| 21-Feb-2021 | 1011.91 | 1003.05 | 19.79 (-1.92) | 14.73 (+0.62) | 15.55 (+0.30) |
| 20-Feb-2021 | 1012.36 | 1003.10 | 21.71 (-1.11) | 14.11 (+0.77) | 15.25 (+0.33) |
| 19-Feb-2021 | 1013.29 | 1003.80 | 22.82 (-6.58) | 13.34 (+0.60) | 14.92 (+0.22) |
| 18-Feb-2021 | 1015.26 | 1004.40 | 29.40 (+0.63) | 12.74 (+0.21) | 14.70 (+0.14) |
| 17-Feb-2021 | 1015.88 | 1005.15 | 28.77 (+12.25) | 12.53 (+0.20) | 14.56 (+0.09) |
| 16-Feb-2021 | 1013.13 | 1004.95 | 16.52 (+9.80) | 12.33 (-0.13) | 14.47 (-0.04) |
| 15-Feb-2021 | 1011.79 | 1005.65 | 6.72 (+1.72) | 12.46 (-0.46) | 14.51 (-0.12) |
| 14-Feb-2021 | 1011.88 | 1006.10 | 5.00 (+2.31) | 12.92 (-0.58) | 14.63 (-0.07) |
| 13-Feb-2021 | 1012.65 | 1007.35 | 2.69 (-3.46) | 13.50 (-0.58) | 14.70 (-0.08) |
| 12-Feb-2021 | 1013.12 | 1007.10 | 6.15 (-5.19) | 14.08 (-0.59) | 14.78 (-0.13) |
| 11-Feb-2021 | 1013.65 | 1006.55 | 11.34 (-8.69) | 14.67 (-0.2) | 14.91 (+/-0.00) |
| 10-Feb-2021 | 1013.86 | 1004.95 | 20.03 (-10.9) | 14.87 (+0.16) | 14.91 (+0.15) |
| 9-Feb-2021 | 1014.48 | 1003.30 | 30.93 (+2.49) | 14.71 (+0.76) | 14.76 (+0.27) |
| 8-Feb-2021 | 1014.11 | 1003.45 | 28.44 (+15.18) | 13.95 (+0.81) | 14.49 (+0.28) |
| 7-Feb-2021 | 1011.00 | 1003.50 | 13.26 (+12.64) | 13.14 (-0.07) | 14.21 (+0.12) |
| 6-Feb-2021 | 1009.17 | 1004.30 | 0.62 (-7.64) | 13.21 (-0.83) | 14.09 (-0.14) |
| 5-Feb-2021 | 1010.66 | 1004.20 | 8.26 (-10.86) | 14.04 (-0.61) | 14.23 (+0.02) |
| 4-Feb-2021 | 1012.97 | 1004.25 | 19.12 (+1.11) | 14.65 (-0.03) | 14.21 (+0.26) |
| 3-Feb-2021 | 1013.34 | 1004.85 | 18.01 (+8.84) | 14.68 (-0.25) | 13.95 (+0.26) |
| 2-Feb-2021 | 1012.20 | 1005.55 | 9.17 (+5.09) | 14.93 (-0.47) | 13.69 (+0.07) |
| 1-Feb-2021 | 1012.24 | 1006.65 | 4.08 (-2.1) | 15.40 (-0.47) | 13.62 (-0.12) |
| 31-Jan-2021 | 1012.17 | 1006.25 | 6.18 | 15.87 | 13.74 |
圖表： 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 來源： 澳洲昆士蘭州政府
| 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動報告 (只提供英文版，來源請按此) |
Issued on 16 February 2021
The 2020–21 La Niña continues to influence Australia and the broader Pacific Basin. In terms of typical indicators of La Niña, however, this event has peaked. Climate model outlooks indicate the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will return to neutral during autumn, that is, neither La Niña nor El Niño. The wetter influence from La Niña is likely to continue for the shorter term, with three-month climate outlooks indicating above average rainfall is likely for parts of northern Australia.
In the tropical Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures remain similar to last fortnight's, with a cooler than average tongue of water still present across the central to western Pacific. Beneath the surface, cooler water is still present. In the atmosphere, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) still clearly remains within the La Niña range, and cloudiness near the Date Line is below average, a typical La Niña atmospheric pattern.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently located over the central Pacific Ocean and is expected to move eastwards during the coming fortnight towards the tropical Americas. When the MJO is over the Americas at this time of the year, tropical areas across northern Australia would typically be drier than average.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has recently been positive, but forecasts expect a return to neutral values in coming days. Typically, a positive SAM during summer increases the chance of above average rainfall across parts of eastern Australia. During the autumn months, SAM has little influence on Australian rainfall.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.
Climate change is also influencing the Australian climate. Australia's climate has warmed by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C over the period 1910–2019,��眨hile��盍ecent decades have seen increased rainfall across northern Australia during the northern wet season (October–April), with more high-intensity, short-duration rainfall events.
SOI summary:
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 14 February was +13.3. The 90-day SOI value was +15.3. Recent 30-day values have continued their gradual decline from a peak of around +20 maintained for much of early to mid-January.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Sea surface temperature summary:
The sea surface temperature (SST) map for the tropical Pacific Ocean for the week ending 14 February shows cool anomalies extending along the equator through the central and western Pacific, parts of the equator in the eastern Pacific, and extending to the south of the equator in the eastern Pacific. Warm anomalies remain around the Maritime Continent and in the waters close to parts of Australia.
The latest values of the three NINO��疳ndices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 14 February were: NINO3���−0.5 °C, NINO3.4���−0.7 °C, NINO4���−0.9 °C. NINO3 and NINO4 have strengthened slightly compared to two weeks ago.
Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values warmer than +0.8 °C are typical of El Niño, while persistent values cooler than −0.8 °C typically indicate La Niña.
ENSO outlooks:
The 2020–21 La Niña has passed its peak, with most of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau anticipating NINO3.4 will return to borderline or neutral values by mid-autumn. It is typical for La Niña to continue to influence Australian climate, even as the La Niña weakens.
La Niña increases the likelihood of above-average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer and early autumn. Below-average daytime temperatures are typically observed for large parts of the country, particularly Queensland. It also increases the chance of tropical cyclones and earlier first rains of the northern wet season, as we saw this season.
最近訪問日期: Mon Mar 01 2021 21:07:57 HKT
最近修訂日期: Wed Jul 24 2019
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