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熱帶氣旋 > 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動動態 [更新] [English]
 實時南方濤動指數 |
資料來源：請按此。此南方濤動指數是由1887至1989年的基數計算所得。資料每天 (公眾假期除外) 在澳洲東部標準時間下午2時更新一次。
| 日期 | 大溪地之氣壓 (百帕) | 達爾文之氣壓 (百帕) | 每天數值 | 30天平均南方濤動指數 | 90天平均南方濤動指數 |
| 8-Dec-2019 | 1013.30 | 1008.65 | 4.83 (-2.33) | -6.30 (+0.16) | -7.27 (+0.29) |
| 7-Dec-2019 | 1014.25 | 1009.15 | 7.16 (+3.16) | -6.46 (-0.29) | -7.56 (+0.32) |
| 6-Dec-2019 | 1014.24 | 1009.75 | 4.00 (+12.15) | -6.17 (+0.36) | -7.88 (+0.21) |
| 5-Dec-2019 | 1012.70 | 1010.55 | -8.15 (-4.2) | -6.53 (+0.88) | -8.09 (+0.03) |
| 4-Dec-2019 | 1012.06 | 1009.10 | -3.95 (-13.03) | -7.41 (+1.01) | -8.12 (+0.09) |
| 3-Dec-2019 | 1012.67 | 1007.20 | 9.08 (+2.28) | -8.42 (+0.65) | -8.21 (+0.27) |
| 2-Dec-2019 | 1012.38 | 1007.35 | 6.80 (+2.70) | -9.07 (+0.33) | -8.48 (+0.26) |
| 1-Dec-2019 | 1012.31 | 1007.80 | 4.10 (+3.72) | -9.40 (+0.05) | -8.74 (+0.28) |
| 30-Nov-2019 | 1011.34 | 1008.40 | 0.38 (+3.76) | -9.45 (+0.08) | -9.02 (+0.16) |
| 29-Nov-2019 | 1010.55 | 1008.20 | -3.38 (+5.85) | -9.53 (+0.31) | -9.18 (+0.09) |
| 28-Nov-2019 | 1010.38 | 1008.95 | -9.23 (-1.97) | -9.84 (+0.06) | -9.27 (+0.13) |
| 27-Nov-2019 | 1010.39 | 1008.65 | -7.26 (+1.08) | -9.90 (+0.03) | -9.40 (+0.09) |
| 26-Nov-2019 | 1010.12 | 1008.55 | -8.34 (+5.28) | -9.93 (-0.33) | -9.49 (+/-0.00) |
| 25-Nov-2019 | 1009.94 | 1009.20 | -13.62 (-2.74) | -9.60 (-0.09) | -9.49 (-0.13) |
| 24-Nov-2019 | 1010.52 | 1009.35 | -10.88 (-6.8) | -9.51 (+0.20) | -9.36 (-0.13) |
| 23-Nov-2019 | 1012.34 | 1010.10 | -4.08 (-1.66) | -9.71 (+0.19) | -9.23 (+0.02) |
| 22-Nov-2019 | 1012.20 | 1009.70 | -2.42 (+9.23) | -9.90 (+0.01) | -9.25 (+0.05) |
| 21-Nov-2019 | 1010.15 | 1009.10 | -11.65 (+8.14) | -9.91 (-0.48) | -9.30 (-0.18) |
| 20-Nov-2019 | 1008.52 | 1008.75 | -19.79 (+7.57) | -9.43 (-0.91) | -9.12 (-0.25) |
| 19-Nov-2019 | 1008.38 | 1009.80 | -27.36 (+/-0.00) | -8.52 (-1.28) | -8.87 (-0.19) |
| 18-Nov-2019 | 1009.78 | 1011.20 | -27.36 (-18.19) | -7.24 (-1.27) | -8.68 (-0.15) |
| 17-Nov-2019 | 1012.24 | 1010.80 | -9.17 (-11.01) | -5.97 (-0.38) | -8.53 (-0.22) |
| 16-Nov-2019 | 1013.57 | 1010.40 | 1.84 (+1.33) | -5.59 (-0.03) | -8.31 (-0.06) |
| 15-Nov-2019 | 1012.81 | 1009.85 | 0.51 (+7.00) | -5.56 (+0.11) | -8.25 (-0.08) |
| 14-Nov-2019 | 1012.31 | 1010.45 | -6.49 (+3.63) | -5.67 (+0.23) | -8.17 (+0.11) |
| 13-Nov-2019 | 1012.54 | 1011.25 | -10.12 (-0.95) | -5.90 (-0.14) | -8.28 (+0.11) |
| 12-Nov-2019 | 1011.94 | 1010.50 | -9.17 (+0.44) | -5.76 (-0.58) | -8.39 (+0.09) |
| 11-Nov-2019 | 1011.42 | 1010.05 | -9.61 (+5.03) | -5.18 (-0.47) | -8.48 (+0.03) |
| 10-Nov-2019 | 1011.08 | 1010.50 | -14.64 (-3.63) | -4.71 (-0.34) | -8.51 (-0.13) |
| 9-Nov-2019 | 1011.85 | 1010.70 | -11.01 | -4.37 | -8.38 |
圖表： 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 來源： 澳洲昆士蘭州政府
| 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動報告 (只提供英文版，來源請按此) |
Issued on 26 November 2019
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole continues
In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, while in the Indian Ocean the strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues.
IOD values remain strongly positive but have weakened slightly over the past fortnight. Waters are warmer than average near the Horn of Africa, and cooler than average waters persist in the eastern Indian Ocean, south of Indonesia. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the positive IOD is likely to be slower to decline than usual, and may persist into mid-summer.
Typically, a positive IOD brings below average rainfall to southern and central Australia with warmer days for the southern two-thirds of the country. Positive IOD events are often associated with a more severe fire season for southeast Australia.
In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. While tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are slightly warmer than average, atmospheric indicators are generally neutral. Trade winds have recently weakened temporarily in the western Pacific region in line with severe tropical cyclone Rita. This may mean there is some warming of surface waters in the coming few weeks. However, most climate models forecast ENSO-neutral conditions for the rest of 2019 and into the first quarter of 2020. When ENSO is neutral, it has little effect on Australian and global climate, meaning other influences are more likely to dominate.
SOI summary:
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 24 November was −10.5. The 90-day value was −9.7. The 30-day SOI values have remained fairly similar over the past week, and are more strongly negative than they were two weeks ago.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Sea surface temperature summary:
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the week ending 24 November remain warmer than average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Compared to two weeks ago, warm anomalies in the western Pacific have increased. Overall, patterns are consistent with a neutral ENSO state.
Weak cool anomalies persist in some parts of the Coral Sea and on the southern side of the Indonesian archipelago, but have decreased in strength compared to two weeks ago, in line with continued weakening of the positive IOD. SSTs are mostly within 2 degrees of average in areas close to Sumatra. Warm anomalies persist off the Horn of Africa, and remain similar to two weeks ago, reaching between 1 and 2 degrees warmer than average.
The latest values of the three key NINO indices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 24 November are: NINO3 +0.5 °C, NINO3.4 +0.6 °C and NINO4 +0.9 °C.
Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values warmer than +0.8 °C are typical of El Niño, while persistent values cooler than −0.8 °C typically indicate La Niña.
ENSO outlooks:
All eight surveyed international climate models indicate central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region will remain at ENSO-neutral levels into early 2020.
One model indicates that values may move towards La Niña thresholds over autumn, surpassing the threshold value during April. The remaining models all maintain NINO3.4 values within the neutral range throughout the outlook period.
最近訪問日期: Sun Dec 08 2019 16:02:06 HKT
最近修訂日期: Wed Jul 24 2019
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