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熱帶氣旋 > 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動動態 [更新] [English]


資料來源:請按此。此南方濤動指數是由1887至1989年的基數計算所得資料每天 (公眾假期除外) 在澳洲東部標準時間下午2時更新一次

日期 大溪地之氣壓 (百帕) 達爾文之氣壓 (百帕) 每天數值 30天平均南方濤動指數 90天平均南方濤動指數

圖表: 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 來源: 澳洲昆士蘭州政府

厄爾尼諾-南方濤動報告 (只提供英文版,來源請按此)

Issued on 10 April 2018

El Ni簽oSouthern Oscillation influence on the climate remains weak

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. Most models predict a neutral ENSO pattern will persist through the southern autumn and winter.

Most atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are at neutral levels. Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are close to average for this time of year. Beneath the surface, the tropical Pacific Ocean is slightly warmer than average, but well within the neutral range. In the atmosphere, cloud and pressure patterns remain weakly La Niña-like, but trade winds are close to average.

Climate models indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures will continue to rise, but remain ENSO neutral for the remainder of the southern autumn and winter.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Most models indicate a neutral IOD is likely for autumn and early winter. However, two of six models indicate a negative IOD is possible during winter. During negative IOD events, southern Australia typically experiences a wetter than average winter-spring.

Climate model outlooks for ENSO and the IOD have lower accuracy during autumn than at other times of the year. Hence, current model outlooks of these climate drivers should be viewed with some caution.

SOI summary:

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 8 April was +12.4, while the 90-day SOI remains within the neutral range at +6.5. The SOI tends to fluctuate during the southern hemisphere summer due to the movement of tropical weather systems. During the southern hemisphere monsoon season, the 90-day SOI is typically a better reflection of the overall climate state.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

Sea surface temperature summary:

The central Pacific Ocean has warmed in the past fortnight. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are now close to average along the equator.

The latest values for the week ending 8 April are: NINO3 −0.1 °C, NINO3.4 −0.3 ° and NINO4 0.0 °C. Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values cooler than −0.8 °C are typically indicative of La Niña, while persistent values warmer than +0.8 °C are typical of El Niño.

Warmer than average SSTs persist across the south Pacific and the Tasman Sea with the ocean in this region more than 1 °C above average. The surface of the Tasman Sea has been persistently warmer than average since the second half of November 2017. This was a record-breaking event.

To the north of Australia, weak warm SST anomalies remain across the Maritime Continent.

ENSO outlooks:

All eight of the surveyed international climate models indicate equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to continue rising over the coming months. A neutral ENSO state is the most likely outcome for the remainder of the southern hemisphere autumn and winter. The Bureau's model predicts the equatorial Pacific will continue to gradually warm throughout winter but remain within the neutral range.

最近訪問日期: Sun Apr 22 2018 09:02:45 HKT
最近修訂日期: Mon Jul 11 2016