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熱帶氣旋 > 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動動態 [更新] [English]

實時南方濤動指數

資料來源:請按此。此南方濤動指數是由1887至1989年的基數計算所得資料每天 (公眾假期除外) 在澳洲東部標準時間下午2時更新一次

日期 大溪地之氣壓 (百帕) 達爾文之氣壓 (百帕) 每天數值 30天平均南方濤動指數 90天平均南方濤動指數
28/6/2017 1014.11 1013.05 -1.62 (+1.68) -8.63 (-0.95) -5.00 (+0.01)
27/6/2017 1013.87 1013.05 -3.30 (-6.6) -7.68 (-0.97) -5.01 (-0.11)
26/6/2017 1014.41 1012.65 3.30 (-4.01) -6.71 (-0.4) -4.90 (+0.04)
25/6/2017 1014.13 1011.80 7.31 (+20.74) -6.31 (-0.02) -4.94 (+0.01)
24/6/2017 1011.68 1012.30 -13.43 (+15.88) -6.29 (-0.54) -4.95 (-0.24)
23/6/2017 1010.47 1013.35 -29.31 (-15.95) -5.75 (-0.8) -4.71 (-0.44)
22/6/2017 1012.64 1013.25 -13.36 (-11.74) -4.95 (-0.32) -4.27 (-0.21)
21/6/2017 1013.61 1012.55 -1.62 (+5.48) -4.63 (-0.14) -4.06 (-0.09)
20/6/2017 1012.53 1012.25 -7.10 (+2.39) -4.49 (-0.62) -3.97 (-0.2)
19/6/2017 1012.34 1012.40 -9.49 (-7.52) -3.87 (-0.89) -3.77 (-0.2)
18/6/2017 1014.01 1013.00 -1.97 (+2.46) -2.98 (-0.3) -3.57 (-0.05)
17/6/2017 1013.26 1012.60 -4.43 (+6.11) -2.68 (-0.5) -3.52 (-0.15)
16/6/2017 1013.04 1013.25 -10.54 (+3.38) -2.18 (-0.6) -3.37 (-0.25)
15/6/2017 1013.66 1014.35 -13.92 (-5.91) -1.58 (-0.67) -3.12 (-0.27)
14/6/2017 1015.00 1014.85 -8.01 (+1.76) -0.91 (-0.54) -2.85 (-0.1)
13/6/2017 1015.30 1015.40 -9.77 (+14.48) -0.37 (-0.49) -2.75 (-0.1)
12/6/2017 1013.59 1015.75 -24.25 (-4.99) 0.12 (-1.03) -2.65 (-0.35)
11/6/2017 1013.95 1015.40 -19.26 (-4.29) 1.15 (-0.5) -2.30 (-0.27)
10/6/2017 1014.21 1015.05 -14.97 (-9.98) 1.65 (+0.21) -2.03 (-0.08)
9/6/2017 1015.18 1014.60 -4.99 (+5.13) 1.44 (+0.43) -1.95 (+0.09)
8/6/2017 1014.20 1014.35 -10.12 (+4.29) 1.01 (+0.20) -2.04 (+0.02)
7/6/2017 1013.64 1014.40 -14.41 (+0.56) 0.81 (+0.04) -2.06 (-0.13)
6/6/2017 1012.76 1013.60 -14.97 (-5.62) 0.77 (-0.01) -1.93 (-0.15)
5/6/2017 1012.41 1012.45 -9.35 (+0.49) 0.78 (+0.10) -1.78 (-0.15)
4/6/2017 1012.54 1012.65 -9.84 (+9.49) 0.68 (+0.07) -1.63 (-0.37)
3/6/2017 1012.24 1013.70 -19.33 (-9.42) 0.61 (-0.21) -1.26 (-0.5)
2/6/2017 1013.33 1013.45 -9.91 (-6.11) 0.82 (-0.29) -0.76 (-0.23)
1/6/2017 1014.50 1013.75 -3.80 (-5.04) 1.11 (+/-0.00) -0.53 (-0.06)
31/5/2017 1015.39 1013.70 1.24 (-10.96) 1.11 (+0.45) -0.47 (+0.05)
30/5/2017 1015.97 1012.85 12.20 0.66 -0.52




圖表: 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 來源: 澳洲昆士蘭州政府

厄爾尼諾-南方濤動報告 (只提供英文版,來源請按此)

Issued on 20 June 2017

El Ni簽o WATCH cancelled; ENSO neutral likely for 2017

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been reset to INACTIVE after an easing of climate model outlooks, and a reversal of the early autumn warming in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

In the atmosphere, the trade winds and Southern Oscillation Index are well within the neutral range. Equatorial sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are slightly warmer than average. However, far eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, which were several degrees above normal near the Peruvian coast during March and April, cooled during May and June. This warmth had the potential to spread and develop into an El Niño event with global effects, but eased as trade winds failed to reinforce the ocean warmth. Other ENSO indicators also remain neutral.

All eight international models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology now suggest tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain ENSO-neutral for the second half of 2017. This compares to seven of eight models that suggested a possible El Niño in April.

While models have steadily eased back the likelihood of El Niño, most still indicate an increased chance of warmer and drier than average conditions for Australia over winter.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. Three out of six climate models suggest a positive IOD will develop by the end of winter, and three are neutral. A positive IOD is typically associated with a drier than average winter and spring for southern and central Australia.


SOI summary:

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 18 June was −4.5 (90-day value −3.6), within neutral territory.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.


Sea surface temperature summary:

For the week ending 18 June, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were slightly warmer than average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Generally weak warm anomalies are also present across much of the South Pacific, including areas immediately south of the equator.

The NINO3.4 SST anomaly has remained at around +0.5 °C since mid-April, while NINO3 dropped further to +0.3 °C in the last fornight. In contrast NINO4 warmed 0.1 °C to +0.5 °C.


ENSO outlooks:

All eight international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely for the second half of 2017, having progressively eased back from seven of eight models forecasting El Niño back in April.

However, while the likelihood of El Niño developing in the coming months is low, climate outlooks for winter suggest widespread drier than average conditions across southern and central Australia, combined with warmer than average days.

最近訪問日期: Thu Jun 29 2017 15:26:24 HKT
最近修訂日期: Mon Jul 11 2016

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