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熱帶氣旋 > 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動動態 [更新] [English]
 實時南方濤動指數 |
資料來源：請按此。此南方濤動指數是由1887至1989年的基數計算所得。資料每天 (公眾假期除外) 在澳洲東部標準時間下午2時更新一次。
| 日期 | 大溪地之氣壓 (百帕) | 達爾文之氣壓 (百帕) | 每天數值 | 30天平均南方濤動指數 | 90天平均南方濤動指數 |
| 17-May-2021 | 1014.40 | 1011.60 | 9.75 (-12.48) | 7.65 (+0.48) | 3.14 (-0.08) |
| 16-May-2021 | 1015.48 | 1011.05 | 22.23 (-3.6) | 7.17 (+0.60) | 3.22 (+0.18) |
| 15-May-2021 | 1015.40 | 1010.50 | 25.83 (+8.50) | 6.57 (+1.00) | 3.04 (+0.23) |
| 14-May-2021 | 1014.04 | 1010.25 | 17.33 (+8.43) | 5.57 (+1.24) | 2.81 (+0.16) |
| 13-May-2021 | 1013.34 | 1010.65 | 8.90 (+3.37) | 4.33 (+1.15) | 2.65 (+0.03) |
| 12-May-2021 | 1013.20 | 1010.95 | 5.53 (-2.99) | 3.18 (+0.49) | 2.62 (-0.06) |
| 11-May-2021 | 1013.49 | 1010.85 | 8.52 (+0.61) | 2.69 (-0.02) | 2.68 (-0.13) |
| 10-May-2021 | 1013.36 | 1010.80 | 7.91 (+2.76) | 2.71 (-0.06) | 2.81 (-0.26) |
| 9-May-2021 | 1012.15 | 1009.95 | 5.15 (-5.06) | 2.77 (-0.15) | 3.07 (-0.26) |
| 8-May-2021 | 1012.36 | 1009.50 | 10.21 (-12.48) | 2.92 (+0.32) | 3.33 (-0.03) |
| 7-May-2021 | 1014.29 | 1009.80 | 22.69 (-9.35) | 2.60 (+1.02) | 3.36 (+0.25) |
| 6-May-2021 | 1015.56 | 1009.85 | 32.04 (+6.13) | 1.58 (+1.09) | 3.11 (+0.26) |
| 5-May-2021 | 1014.96 | 1010.05 | 25.91 (+18.00) | 0.49 (+0.43) | 2.85 (+0.08) |
| 4-May-2021 | 1013.01 | 1010.45 | 7.91 (+20.53) | 0.06 (+0.12) | 2.77 (-0.12) |
| 3-May-2021 | 1011.28 | 1011.40 | -12.62 (+7.66) | -0.06 (+0.02) | 2.89 (-0.24) |
| 2-May-2021 | 1011.48 | 1012.60 | -20.28 (-6.28) | -0.08 (-0.36) | 3.13 (-0.27) |
| 1-May-2021 | 1012.40 | 1012.70 | -14.00 (-8.16) | 0.28 (-0.3) | 3.40 (-0.22) |
| 30-Apr-2021 | 1013.88 | 1012.30 | -5.84 (-10.89) | 0.58 (+0.03) | 3.62 (-0.14) |
| 29-Apr-2021 | 1014.54 | 1011.45 | 5.05 (-5.33) | 0.55 (+0.13) | 3.76 (-0.05) |
| 28-Apr-2021 | 1015.08 | 1011.25 | 10.38 (+4.69) | 0.42 (+0.32) | 3.81 (-0.11) |
| 27-Apr-2021 | 1014.63 | 1011.45 | 5.69 (+1.37) | 0.10 (+0.08) | 3.92 (-0.28) |
| 26-Apr-2021 | 1013.64 | 1010.65 | 4.32 (+17.59) | 0.02 (-0.18) | 4.20 (-0.23) |
| 25-Apr-2021 | 1012.10 | 1011.55 | -13.27 (-12.26) | 0.20 (-0.76) | 4.43 (-0.26) |
| 24-Apr-2021 | 1013.00 | 1010.75 | -1.01 (-13.41) | 0.96 (-0.31) | 4.69 (-0.07) |
| 23-Apr-2021 | 1013.61 | 1009.50 | 12.40 (+5.19) | 1.27 (+0.15) | 4.76 (+0.08) |
| 22-Apr-2021 | 1013.39 | 1010.00 | 7.21 (-1.08) | 1.12 (+0.06) | 4.68 (+0.07) |
| 21-Apr-2021 | 1013.84 | 1010.30 | 8.29 (-13.12) | 1.06 (-0.05) | 4.61 (+0.10) |
| 20-Apr-2021 | 1014.41 | 1009.05 | 21.41 (+8.58) | 1.11 (+0.42) | 4.51 (+0.19) |
| 19-Apr-2021 | 1014.02 | 1009.85 | 12.83 (+13.84) | 0.69 (+0.23) | 4.32 (-0.12) |
| 18-Apr-2021 | 1012.70 | 1010.45 | -1.01 | 0.46 | 4.44 |
圖表： 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 來源： 澳洲昆士蘭州政府
| 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動報告 (只提供英文版，來源請按此) |
Issued on 11 May 2021
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues at neutral levels. Climate model outlooks currently indicate this neutral phase will last at least until October.
Oceanic indicators of ENSO persist at neutral levels, with Pacific sea surface temperatures close to the long-term average across most of the equatorial region. Beneath the surface, temperatures are near-average, with slightly warmer than average waters across much of the sub-surface. Atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloud patterns are also close to average. Trade winds have been stronger than average in the far west, but near average elsewhere.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is over the Indian Ocean region. It is forecast to move eastwards across Australian longitudes over the coming fortnight. When the MJO is active over the eastern Indian Ocean and Australian longitudes at this time of year, above average rainfall is more likely over the Maritime Continent to Australia's north. Additionally, it typically acts to strengthen easterly winds on Queensland’s tropical east coast and increase temperatures across tropical Australia.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has been positive for the past week. It is expected to remain positive for the coming fortnight. SAM typically has little influence on Australian rainfall during autumn, but may have a drying influence for parts of south-west and south-east Australia over the coming fortnight.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Climate model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral during the first half of winter. Three of the five models indicate negative IOD thresholds may be reached during winter or spring. The accuracy of IOD forecasts made during autumn is generally lower than at other times of the year, but improves in winter. A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winter-spring rainfall for much of southern Australia.
Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C over 1910–2019, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.
SOI summary:
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 9 May was +2.9. The 90-day SOI value was +3.5. Both are within ENSO-neutral thresholds.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Sea surface temperature summary:
Sea surface temperatures (SST) for the tropical Pacific Ocean for the week ending 9 May were close to average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Warm anomalies persist around the west and parts of the south coast of Australia, while around the Maritime Continent SSTs remain slightly warmer than average despite weakening of warm anomalies over the past two weeks.
All three NINO indices are within the ENSO-neutral range. The latest values of the three NINO��疳ndices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 9 May were: NINO3 −0. 1 °C, NINO3.4 ���−0.1 °C, and NINO4 +0.1 °C.
Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values warmer than +0.8 °C are typical of El Niño, while persistent values cooler than −0.8 °C typically indicate La Niña.
ENSO outlooks:
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. All of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau anticipate NINO3.4 will remain neutral until at least October.
最近訪問日期: Tue May 18 2021 00:16:55 HKT
最近修訂日期: Wed Jul 24 2019
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