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熱帶氣旋 > 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動動態 [更新] [English]
 實時南方濤動指數 |
資料來源：請按此。此南方濤動指數是由1887至1989年的基數計算所得。資料每天 (公眾假期除外) 在澳洲東部標準時間下午2時更新一次。
| 日期 | 大溪地之氣壓 (百帕) | 達爾文之氣壓 (百帕) | 每天數值 | 30天平均南方濤動指數 | 90天平均南方濤動指數 |
| 3-Jul-2020 | 1015.54 | 1012.80 | 11.02 (-3.75) | -7.63 (+0.92) | -1.64 (+0.25) |
| 2-Jul-2020 | 1015.45 | 1012.10 | 14.77 (+4.61) | -8.55 (+0.56) | -1.89 (+0.34) |
| 1-Jul-2020 | 1014.80 | 1012.20 | 10.16 (+2.64) | -9.11 (+0.02) | -2.23 (+0.24) |
| 30-Jun-2020 | 1014.96 | 1012.60 | 7.52 (+3.09) | -9.13 (-0.42) | -2.47 (+0.02) |
| 29-Jun-2020 | 1014.82 | 1012.90 | 4.43 (+5.13) | -8.71 (-0.44) | -2.49 (+0.07) |
| 28-Jun-2020 | 1013.79 | 1012.60 | -0.70 (+3.94) | -8.27 (-0.32) | -2.56 (+0.06) |
| 27-Jun-2020 | 1012.63 | 1012.00 | -4.64 (+9.00) | -7.95 (-0.21) | -2.62 (+0.08) |
| 26-Jun-2020 | 1011.85 | 1012.50 | -13.64 (-9.77) | -7.74 (-0.29) | -2.70 (+0.02) |
| 25-Jun-2020 | 1013.54 | 1012.80 | -3.87 (-8.79) | -7.45 (+0.09) | -2.72 (+0.15) |
| 24-Jun-2020 | 1014.89 | 1012.90 | 4.92 (-4.01) | -7.54 (+0.28) | -2.87 (+0.17) |
| 23-Jun-2020 | 1015.31 | 1012.75 | 8.93 (+6.47) | -7.82 (+0.77) | -3.04 (+0.16) |
| 22-Jun-2020 | 1013.54 | 1011.90 | 2.46 (+17.08) | -8.59 (+0.23) | -3.20 (+0.14) |
| 21-Jun-2020 | 1011.56 | 1012.35 | -14.62 (+19.33) | -8.82 (-0.66) | -3.34 (-0.03) |
| 20-Jun-2020 | 1010.11 | 1013.65 | -33.95 (-1.9) | -8.16 (-1.5) | -3.31 (-0.3) |
| 19-Jun-2020 | 1010.73 | 1014.00 | -32.05 (-1.26) | -6.66 (-0.85) | -3.01 (-0.28) |
| 18-Jun-2020 | 1011.31 | 1014.40 | -30.79 (-8.37) | -5.81 (-0.74) | -2.73 (-0.25) |
| 17-Jun-2020 | 1011.70 | 1013.60 | -22.42 (-10.54) | -5.07 (-0.75) | -2.48 (-0.08) |
| 16-Jun-2020 | 1011.95 | 1012.35 | -11.88 (+10.54) | -4.32 (-0.78) | -2.40 (+0.10) |
| 15-Jun-2020 | 1011.00 | 1012.90 | -22.42 (-13.98) | -3.54 (-1.17) | -2.50 (-0.08) |
| 14-Jun-2020 | 1012.84 | 1012.75 | -8.44 (-17.09) | -2.37 (-0.25) | -2.42 (-0.06) |
| 13-Jun-2020 | 1013.92 | 1011.40 | 8.65 (-4.07) | -2.12 (-0.01) | -2.36 (+0.05) |
| 12-Jun-2020 | 1014.20 | 1011.10 | 12.72 (+11.74) | -2.11 (-0.08) | -2.41 (+0.14) |
| 11-Jun-2020 | 1013.53 | 1012.10 | 0.98 (+4.43) | -2.03 (-0.09) | -2.55 (+0.02) |
| 10-Jun-2020 | 1014.50 | 1013.70 | -3.45 (-10.76) | -1.94 (-0.17) | -2.57 (-0.07) |
| 9-Jun-2020 | 1015.28 | 1012.95 | 7.31 (-5.06) | -1.77 (+0.16) | -2.50 (+0.07) |
| 8-Jun-2020 | 1014.40 | 1011.35 | 12.37 (+26.08) | -1.93 (+0.06) | -2.57 (+0.23) |
| 7-Jun-2020 | 1011.14 | 1011.80 | -13.71 (+24.74) | -1.99 (-0.63) | -2.80 (-0.12) |
| 6-Jun-2020 | 1009.02 | 1013.20 | -38.45 (+8.23) | -1.36 (-0.91) | -2.68 (-0.41) |
| 5-Jun-2020 | 1009.05 | 1014.40 | -46.68 (-13.29) | -0.45 (-1.22) | -2.27 (-0.46) |
| 4-Jun-2020 | 1011.69 | 1015.15 | -33.39 | 0.77 | -1.81 |
圖表： 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 來源： 澳洲昆士蘭州政府
| 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動報告 (只提供英文版，來源請按此) |
Issued on 23 June 2020
Both the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remain neutral. However, cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean has continued, and the majority of models anticipate this cooling will be close to the threshold for La Niña by early spring. Consequently, the Bureau's ENSO��烙utlook has shifted to La Niña WATCH.
La Niña WATCH means the chance of La Niña forming in 2020 is around 50%—roughly double the average likelihood. Three models indicate a La Niña could form by late winter, with another two models suggesting thresholds could be approached during early spring. La Niña events typically bring above average spring rainfall in northern, central, and eastern Australia.
Key indicators of ENSO, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, are consistent with a neutral ENSO state. However, sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean have cooled over the past two months, and are supported by temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which are also cooler than average.
Despite recent cooling in the eastern Indian Ocean, three of six models continue to suggest the possibility of a negative IOD developing during winter or early spring. Most models show a broad spread of likely scenarios between the neutral and negative IOD range. A negative IOD typically brings above average winter–spring rainfall to southern Australia.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently positive and is forecast to remain positive for the remainder of June and early July. During winter, a positive SAM typically means less rainfall for southwest Western Australia, southern Victoria, and Tasmania.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak, and is not expected to influence Australia's climate in the coming fortnight.
We're expanding our service: On 23 June 2020 the ENSO Wrap–Up changed its name to the Climate Driver Update. The new name recognises that the ENSO Wrap–Up has long provided more than just ENSO information. We'll continue to provide fortnightly updates on the current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans, covering ENSO and the IOD, but will also include more about drivers from the Southern Ocean and tropics—the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO).
SOI summary:
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 21 June was −9.7. The 90-day value was −3.7. While the 30-day SOI has dropped over the past fortnight, mostly due to higher pressure at Darwin, the longer-term 90-day SOI is still well within the ENSO neutral range.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Sea surface temperature summary:
Sea surface temperature (SST) patterns across the tropical Pacific Ocean for the week ending 21 June remain largely unchanged compared to that of two weeks ago. Cooler than average SSTs have increased slightly in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while warmer than average SSTs in the far western Pacific have increased in area but weakened in intensity. Much of the central tropical Pacific SSTs are close to average for this time of the year.
SSTs remain slightly warmer than average around parts of Australia in the west, the east, and across the Tasman Sea, but cooler away from the coast in the Great Australian Bight.
The latest values of the three key NINO indices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 21 June were: NINO3 −0.6 °C, NINO3.4 −0.2 °C and NINO4 +0.3 °C. NINO3.4 and NINO3 have cooled over the past fortnight while NINO4 has not changed.
ENSO outlooks:
Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region will cool in the coming months. Three of the eight surveyed models reach the La Niña threshold during August, with another two models approaching thresholds in September and October. The other three models remain more clearly at neutral levels.
ENSO events—El Niño or La Niña—typically begin to develop during the southern hemisphere autumn to winter, before strengthening in winter to spring.
最近訪問日期: Sat Jul 04 2020 03:57:05 HKT
最近修訂日期: Wed Jul 24 2019
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