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TC Watch > ENSO Watch [Refresh] [中文]
 Real-time SOI Data |
Numerical data from here and values are calculated using the 1887-1989 base period. This information is usually updated every weekday at 2:00pm (AEST), public holidays excluded.
| Date | Pressure at Tahiti (hPa) | Pressure at Darwin (hPa) | Daily value | 30-day average SOI | 90-day average SOI |
| 22-Jan-2020 | 1012.80 | 1009.50 | -6.17 (-2.55) | -4.31 (+0.13) | -6.33 (+0.04) |
| 21-Jan-2020 | 1012.99 | 1009.15 | -3.62 (-6.55) | -4.44 (+0.26) | -6.37 (-0.01) |
| 20-Jan-2020 | 1013.28 | 1008.05 | 2.93 (+2.69) | -4.70 (+0.58) | -6.36 (+/-0.00) |
| 19-Jan-2020 | 1012.31 | 1007.65 | 0.24 (+8.86) | -5.28 (+0.29) | -6.36 (-0.08) |
| 18-Jan-2020 | 1010.58 | 1007.80 | -8.62 (+8.00) | -5.57 (-0.06) | -6.28 (-0.22) |
| 17-Jan-2020 | 1009.03 | 1007.95 | -16.62 (-3.62) | -5.51 (-0.29) | -6.06 (-0.3) |
| 16-Jan-2020 | 1009.70 | 1007.85 | -13.00 (-1.37) | -5.22 (+0.02) | -5.76 (-0.17) |
| 15-Jan-2020 | 1009.84 | 1007.70 | -11.63 (-0.99) | -5.24 (+0.11) | -5.59 (-0.16) |
| 14-Jan-2020 | 1009.50 | 1007.15 | -10.64 (-7.96) | -5.35 (+0.14) | -5.43 (-0.09) |
| 13-Jan-2020 | 1009.89 | 1005.85 | -2.68 (-1.65) | -5.49 (+0.29) | -5.34 (+0.12) |
| 12-Jan-2020 | 1009.84 | 1005.45 | -1.03 (-6.59) | -5.78 (+0.09) | -5.46 (+0.06) |
| 11-Jan-2020 | 1010.04 | 1004.25 | 5.56 (-8.01) | -5.87 (+0.22) | -5.52 (-0.03) |
| 10-Jan-2020 | 1011.34 | 1003.85 | 13.57 (+5.60) | -6.09 (+0.28) | -5.49 (+0.10) |
| 9-Jan-2020 | 1011.90 | 1005.60 | 7.97 (+3.87) | -6.37 (+0.35) | -5.59 (+0.13) |
| 8-Jan-2020 | 1011.88 | 1006.40 | 4.10 (-0.9) | -6.72 (+0.29) | -5.72 (+0.18) |
| 7-Jan-2020 | 1012.42 | 1006.75 | 5.00 (-13.61) | -7.01 (+0.01) | -5.90 (+0.16) |
| 6-Jan-2020 | 1014.76 | 1006.20 | 18.61 (+0.09) | -7.02 (+0.38) | -6.06 (+0.22) |
| 5-Jan-2020 | 1015.24 | 1006.70 | 18.52 (+7.02) | -7.40 (+0.48) | -6.28 (+0.29) |
| 4-Jan-2020 | 1014.00 | 1006.95 | 11.50 (+18.84) | -7.88 (+0.66) | -6.57 (+0.25) |
| 3-Jan-2020 | 1011.65 | 1008.60 | -7.34 (+10.08) | -8.54 (-0.12) | -6.82 (+0.15) |
| 2-Jan-2020 | 1011.06 | 1010.15 | -17.42 (-10.26) | -8.42 (-0.88) | -6.97 (+0.02) |
| 1-Jan-2020 | 1011.94 | 1008.85 | -7.16 (-3.16) | -7.54 (-0.46) | -6.99 (+0.15) |
| 31-Dec-2019 | 1012.30 | 1009.35 | -4.00 (-5.09) | -7.08 (-0.27) | -7.14 (+0.09) |
| 30-Dec-2019 | 1013.28 | 1009.35 | 1.09 (+2.03) | -6.81 (+0.02) | -7.23 (-0.01) |
| 29-Dec-2019 | 1011.89 | 1008.35 | -0.94 (+11.10) | -6.83 (+0.08) | -7.22 (-0.11) |
| 28-Dec-2019 | 1009.20 | 1007.80 | -12.04 (+5.45) | -6.91 (-0.09) | -7.11 (-0.14) |
| 27-Dec-2019 | 1007.95 | 1007.60 | -17.49 (+10.90) | -6.82 (-0.34) | -6.97 (-0.18) |
| 26-Dec-2019 | 1007.10 | 1008.85 | -28.39 (-0.42) | -6.48 (-0.67) | -6.79 (-0.33) |
| 25-Dec-2019 | 1006.63 | 1008.30 | -27.97 (-6.33) | -5.81 (-0.48) | -6.46 (-0.34) |
| 24-Dec-2019 | 1008.40 | 1008.85 | -21.64 | -5.33 | -6.12 |
Charts: 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | Source: The State of Queensland, Australia
| ENSO Wrap Up (Source: here) |
Issued on 21 January 2020
Pacific and Indian ocean patterns neutral
Both the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are neutral, and likely to remain so at least until the end of the southern hemisphere autumn. When these main climate drivers are neutral, Australia’s climate can be influenced by more local or short-term climate drivers.
Overall, ENSO indicators are neutral. However, tropical waters near and to the west of the Date Line remain warmer than average, potentially drawing some moisture away from Australia. Additionally, tropical cyclone Tino, in combination with the passage of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, has provided a burst of westerly winds in the western Pacific, with potential to further warm parts of the western Pacific in the coming week or two. Most climate models indicate ENSO will remain neutral until at least the end of the southern hemisphere autumn, meaning it will have limited influence on Australian and global climate in the coming months.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April. However, the effects from the strong positive IOD event that occurred in the second half of 2019 persist, with the landscape primed for bushfire weather and heatwaves this summer.
When ENSO and IOD are neutral, other influences can affect Australian climate. The Bureau's Climate Outlooks for the weeks, months and seasons ahead include all the climate influences on Australian weather.
SOI summary:
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 19 January is −3.3. The 90-day value is −5.1.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Sea surface temperature summary:
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the week ending 20 January were close to average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but remain warmer than average across much of the western equatorial Pacific Ocean. Overall, ocean temperature patterns are consistent with a neutral ENSO state.
Surface temperatures also remain warmer than average around most of Australia, but have cooled slightly compared to two weeks ago. The surface of the ocean is up to 2 degrees warmer than average in some areas of the Great Australian Bight and to the northwest of the Pilbara coast.
Consistent with the neutral state of the Indian Ocean Dipole, there is no longer a large difference in surface temperature between the east and west of the tropical Indian Ocean.
The latest values of the three key NINO indices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 19 January were: NINO3 0.0 °C, NINO3.4 +0.4 °C and NINO4 +0.8 °C.
ENSO outlooks:
Most international climate models indicate central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region will remain at ENSO-neutral levels through the southern hemisphere autumn 2020. One of the eight models reaches the El Niño threshold during March, while another exceeds the La Niña threshold from April until the end of the outlook period (June).
ENSO events, that is either El Niño or La Niña, typically begin to develop during autumn, before strengthening in winter/spring. The Bureau will continue to closely monitor the potential for either to develop this year.
Last Accessed: Wed Jan 22 2020 13:54:29 HKT
Last Modified: Wed Jul 24 2019
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