|
TC Watch > ENSO Watch [Refresh] [中文]
 Real-time SOI Data |
Numerical data from here and values are calculated using the 1887-1989 base period. This information is usually updated every weekday at 2:00pm (AEST), public holidays excluded.
| Date | Pressure at Tahiti (hPa) | Pressure at Darwin (hPa) | Daily value | 30-day average SOI | 90-day average SOI |
| 28 Jun 2017 | 1014.11 | 1013.05 | -1.62 (+1.68) | -8.63 (-0.95) | -5.00 (+0.01) |
| 27 Jun 2017 | 1013.87 | 1013.05 | -3.30 (-6.6) | -7.68 (-0.97) | -5.01 (-0.11) |
| 26 Jun 2017 | 1014.41 | 1012.65 | 3.30 (-4.01) | -6.71 (-0.4) | -4.90 (+0.04) |
| 25 Jun 2017 | 1014.13 | 1011.80 | 7.31 (+20.74) | -6.31 (-0.02) | -4.94 (+0.01) |
| 24 Jun 2017 | 1011.68 | 1012.30 | -13.43 (+15.88) | -6.29 (-0.54) | -4.95 (-0.24) |
| 23 Jun 2017 | 1010.47 | 1013.35 | -29.31 (-15.95) | -5.75 (-0.8) | -4.71 (-0.44) |
| 22 Jun 2017 | 1012.64 | 1013.25 | -13.36 (-11.74) | -4.95 (-0.32) | -4.27 (-0.21) |
| 21 Jun 2017 | 1013.61 | 1012.55 | -1.62 (+5.48) | -4.63 (-0.14) | -4.06 (-0.09) |
| 20 Jun 2017 | 1012.53 | 1012.25 | -7.10 (+2.39) | -4.49 (-0.62) | -3.97 (-0.2) |
| 19 Jun 2017 | 1012.34 | 1012.40 | -9.49 (-7.52) | -3.87 (-0.89) | -3.77 (-0.2) |
| 18 Jun 2017 | 1014.01 | 1013.00 | -1.97 (+2.46) | -2.98 (-0.3) | -3.57 (-0.05) |
| 17 Jun 2017 | 1013.26 | 1012.60 | -4.43 (+6.11) | -2.68 (-0.5) | -3.52 (-0.15) |
| 16 Jun 2017 | 1013.04 | 1013.25 | -10.54 (+3.38) | -2.18 (-0.6) | -3.37 (-0.25) |
| 15 Jun 2017 | 1013.66 | 1014.35 | -13.92 (-5.91) | -1.58 (-0.67) | -3.12 (-0.27) |
| 14 Jun 2017 | 1015.00 | 1014.85 | -8.01 (+1.76) | -0.91 (-0.54) | -2.85 (-0.1) |
| 13 Jun 2017 | 1015.30 | 1015.40 | -9.77 (+14.48) | -0.37 (-0.49) | -2.75 (-0.1) |
| 12 Jun 2017 | 1013.59 | 1015.75 | -24.25 (-4.99) | 0.12 (-1.03) | -2.65 (-0.35) |
| 11 Jun 2017 | 1013.95 | 1015.40 | -19.26 (-4.29) | 1.15 (-0.5) | -2.30 (-0.27) |
| 10 Jun 2017 | 1014.21 | 1015.05 | -14.97 (-9.98) | 1.65 (+0.21) | -2.03 (-0.08) |
| 9 Jun 2017 | 1015.18 | 1014.60 | -4.99 (+5.13) | 1.44 (+0.43) | -1.95 (+0.09) |
| 8 Jun 2017 | 1014.20 | 1014.35 | -10.12 (+4.29) | 1.01 (+0.20) | -2.04 (+0.02) |
| 7 Jun 2017 | 1013.64 | 1014.40 | -14.41 (+0.56) | 0.81 (+0.04) | -2.06 (-0.13) |
| 6 Jun 2017 | 1012.76 | 1013.60 | -14.97 (-5.62) | 0.77 (-0.01) | -1.93 (-0.15) |
| 5 Jun 2017 | 1012.41 | 1012.45 | -9.35 (+0.49) | 0.78 (+0.10) | -1.78 (-0.15) |
| 4 Jun 2017 | 1012.54 | 1012.65 | -9.84 (+9.49) | 0.68 (+0.07) | -1.63 (-0.37) |
| 3 Jun 2017 | 1012.24 | 1013.70 | -19.33 (-9.42) | 0.61 (-0.21) | -1.26 (-0.5) |
| 2 Jun 2017 | 1013.33 | 1013.45 | -9.91 (-6.11) | 0.82 (-0.29) | -0.76 (-0.23) |
| 1 Jun 2017 | 1014.50 | 1013.75 | -3.80 (-5.04) | 1.11 (+/-0.00) | -0.53 (-0.06) |
| 31 May 2017 | 1015.39 | 1013.70 | 1.24 (-10.96) | 1.11 (+0.45) | -0.47 (+0.05) |
| 30 May 2017 | 1015.97 | 1012.85 | 12.20 | 0.66 | -0.52 |
Charts: 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | Source: The State of Queensland, Australia
| ENSO Wrap Up (Source: here) |
Issued on 20 June 2017
El Niño WATCH cancelled; ENSO neutral likely for 2017
The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been reset to INACTIVE after an easing of climate model outlooks, and a reversal of the early autumn warming in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
In the atmosphere, the trade winds and Southern Oscillation Index are well within the neutral range. Equatorial sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are slightly warmer than average. However, far eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, which were several degrees above normal near the Peruvian coast during March and April, cooled during May and June. This warmth had the potential to spread and develop into an El Niño event with global effects, but eased as trade winds failed to reinforce the ocean warmth. Other ENSO indicators also remain neutral.
All eight international models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology now suggest tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain ENSO-neutral for the second half of 2017. This compares to seven of eight models that suggested a possible El Niño in April.
While models have steadily eased back the likelihood of El Niño, most still indicate an increased chance of warmer and drier than average conditions for Australia over winter.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. Three out of six climate models suggest a positive IOD will develop by the end of winter, and three are neutral. A positive IOD is typically associated with a drier than average winter and spring for southern and central Australia.
SOI summary:
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 18 June was −4.5 (90-day value −3.6), within neutral territory.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Sea surface temperature summary:
For the week ending 18 June, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were slightly warmer than average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Generally weak warm anomalies are also present across much of the South Pacific, including areas immediately south of the equator.
The NINO3.4 SST anomaly has remained at around +0.5 °C since mid-April, while NINO3 dropped further to +0.3 °C in the last fornight. In contrast NINO4 warmed 0.1 °C to +0.5 °C.
ENSO outlooks:
All eight international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely for the second half of 2017, having progressively eased back from seven of eight models forecasting El Niño back in April.
However, while the likelihood of El Niño developing in the coming months is low, climate outlooks for winter suggest widespread drier than average conditions across southern and central Australia, combined with warmer than average days.
Last Accessed: Thu Jun 29 2017 15:18:16 HKT
Last Modified: Sun Jul 10 2016
|
Statistics |
