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TC Watch > ENSO Watch [Refresh] [中文]
 Real-time SOI Data |
Numerical data from here and values are calculated using the 1887-1989 base period. This information is usually updated every weekday at 2:00pm (AEST), public holidays excluded.
| Date | Pressure at Tahiti (hPa) | Pressure at Darwin (hPa) | Daily value | 30-day average SOI | 90-day average SOI |
| 20-Aug-2019 | 1013.88 | 1014.55 | -13.90 (-24.76) | 0.15 (-0.38) | -7.19 (-0.1) |
| 19-Aug-2019 | 1016.71 | 1013.30 | 10.86 (+3.40) | 0.53 (+0.46) | -7.09 (+0.19) |
| 18-Aug-2019 | 1017.45 | 1014.60 | 7.46 (+/-0.00) | 0.07 (+0.45) | -7.28 (+0.19) |
| 17-Aug-2019 | 1017.60 | 1014.75 | 7.46 (+23.67) | -0.38 (+0.66) | -7.47 (+0.09) |
| 16-Aug-2019 | 1014.80 | 1015.85 | -16.21 (+3.64) | -1.04 (-0.17) | -7.56 (-0.3) |
| 15-Aug-2019 | 1014.60 | 1016.25 | -19.85 (-1.95) | -0.87 (-0.45) | -7.26 (-0.39) |
| 14-Aug-2019 | 1015.02 | 1016.35 | -17.90 (-6.31) | -0.42 (-0.1) | -6.87 (-0.23) |
| 13-Aug-2019 | 1015.86 | 1016.15 | -11.59 (-8.25) | -0.32 (+0.49) | -6.64 (-0.1) |
| 12-Aug-2019 | 1016.37 | 1015.30 | -3.34 (-5.46) | -0.81 (+0.55) | -6.54 (+0.08) |
| 11-Aug-2019 | 1016.02 | 1014.05 | 2.12 (-18.03) | -1.36 (+0.74) | -6.62 (+0.18) |
| 10-Aug-2019 | 1017.44 | 1012.50 | 20.15 (-2.79) | -2.10 (+1.32) | -6.80 (+0.46) |
| 9-Aug-2019 | 1017.40 | 1012.00 | 22.94 (+3.22) | -3.42 (+1.06) | -7.26 (+0.51) |
| 8-Aug-2019 | 1016.77 | 1011.90 | 19.72 (+3.15) | -4.48 (+1.20) | -7.77 (+0.27) |
| 7-Aug-2019 | 1015.90 | 1011.55 | 16.57 (+10.74) | -5.68 (+1.48) | -8.04 (+0.26) |
| 6-Aug-2019 | 1015.43 | 1012.85 | 5.83 (+7.77) | -7.16 (+0.69) | -8.30 (+0.23) |
| 5-Aug-2019 | 1014.95 | 1013.65 | -1.94 (+9.77) | -7.85 (-0.02) | -8.53 (+0.13) |
| 4-Aug-2019 | 1014.44 | 1014.75 | -11.71 (+7.04) | -7.83 (-0.27) | -8.66 (-0.07) |
| 3-Aug-2019 | 1014.28 | 1015.75 | -18.75 (-4.24) | -7.56 (-0.54) | -8.59 (-0.21) |
| 2-Aug-2019 | 1014.93 | 1015.70 | -14.51 (-7.04) | -7.02 (-0.49) | -8.38 (-0.17) |
| 1-Aug-2019 | 1015.09 | 1014.70 | -7.47 (-10.61) | -6.53 (-0.51) | -8.21 (-0.08) |
| 31-Jul-2019 | 1015.36 | 1013.90 | 3.14 (-6.77) | -6.02 (+0.14) | -8.13 (-0.1) |
| 30-Jul-2019 | 1016.11 | 1013.55 | 9.91 (+0.68) | -6.16 (+0.64) | -8.03 (+0.01) |
| 29-Jul-2019 | 1016.70 | 1014.25 | 9.23 (+10.03) | -6.80 (+1.17) | -8.04 (+0.12) |
| 28-Jul-2019 | 1015.27 | 1014.45 | -0.80 (-7.2) | -7.97 (+0.88) | -8.16 (+0.04) |
| 27-Jul-2019 | 1015.74 | 1013.75 | 6.40 (+0.61) | -8.85 (+1.22) | -8.20 (+0.06) |
| 26-Jul-2019 | 1015.74 | 1013.85 | 5.79 (+11.39) | -10.07 (+0.84) | -8.26 (+0.03) |
| 25-Jul-2019 | 1014.74 | 1014.70 | -5.60 (-2.03) | -10.91 (-0.05) | -8.29 (-0.08) |
| 24-Jul-2019 | 1013.92 | 1013.55 | -3.57 (-2.03) | -10.86 (-0.09) | -8.21 (-0.02) |
| 23-Jul-2019 | 1013.80 | 1013.10 | -1.54 (-7.08) | -10.77 (+0.57) | -8.19 (+0.09) |
| 22-Jul-2019 | 1014.30 | 1012.45 | 5.54 | -11.34 | -8.28 |
Charts: 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | Source: The State of Queensland, Australia
| ENSO Wrap Up (Source: here) |
Issued on 20 August 2019
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole pattern continues
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. The Indian Ocean is expected to be the dominant driver of Australia's climate over the coming months.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been above the positive IOD threshold for four of the past five weeks, with values strengthening in the past month. However, the broader Indian Ocean patterns of sea surface temperature, cloud, and wind have been positive IOD-like since late May.
All climate models surveyed by the Bureau forecast positive IOD conditions to continue for the southern hemisphere spring. Typically, a positive IOD brings below average winter–spring rainfall to southern and central Australia, above average daytime temperatures for the southern two-thirds of Australia, and increased fire risk in the southeast.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. Atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are mostly close to average, reflecting neutral tropical Pacific cloud patterns and rainfall.
Most climate models indicate the tropical Pacific is likely to remain ENSO-neutral for the rest of 2019, meaning other climate drivers are likely to remain as the primary influences on Australian and global weather.
SOI summary:
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is close to zero. The SOI for the 30 days ending 18 August was +0.7, with the 90-day value −6.8.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Sea surface temperature summary:
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the week ending 18 August remain warmer than average across the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, but overall patterns are consistent with a neutral ENSO state. Most of the northern half of the Pacific Ocean is warmer than average, as well as the southwestern quarter. Across the southeastern quarter, SSTs are close to average, with some areas along the equator and close to South America in the tropics are slightly cooler than average.
SSTs are also warmer than average in waters to the east of Australia and around the southwestern tip of Australia. SSTs are broadly close to average around the rest of Australia, with weak negative anomalies along much of the coast of South Australia and a small area of around the Gascoyne coast in Western Australia. Also visible are negative anomalies along the southern coastline of the Indonesian archipelago. Cooler waters in this area typically occur during a positive IOD.
The latest values of the three key NINO indices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 18 August are: NINO3 −0.1 °C, NINO3.4 +0.2 °C and NINO4 +0.8 °C. While NINO3 held steady over the past fortnight, NINO4 and NINO3.4 have cooled slightly.
Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values warmer than +0.8 °C are typical of El Niño, while persistent values cooler than −0.8 °C typically indicate La Niña.
ENSO outlooks:
All eight surveyed international climate models indicate central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region will remain at ENSO-neutral levels until at least late 2019. One model indicates that values for December and January may pass La Niña thresholds, but the remaining models are all clearly within the neutral range.
Last Accessed: Wed Aug 21 2019 02:51:10 HKT
Last Modified: Wed Jul 24 2019
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