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TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities - Usage 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋信號機率 - 使用篇 [Refresh 更新]

Using the Probability Table 使用機率列表

A sample set of probability tables is as follows:

下面顯示一機率列表樣本:

6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率 (SAMPLE 樣本)
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +6
Sat
08h
+12
Sat
14h
+18
Sat
20h
+24
Sun
02h
+30
Sun
08h
+36
Sun
14h
+42
Sun
20h
+48
Mon
02h
+54
Mon
08h
+60
Mon
14h
+66
Mon
20h
+72
Tue
02h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 100100100100100999166411961
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 18242522135
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 218618998988450261241
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 216432892
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 64881763581
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 64234101
#9 Increasing Gale or Storm Signal or above 九號烈風或暴風增強信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 529234
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 528152
#10 Hurricane Signal 十號颶風信號
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 211111
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 212111

2-hourly probabilities for Signals #9 and #10 九號及十號信號之每 2 小時機率 (SAMPLE 樣本)
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 +2
Sat
04h
+4
Sat
06h
+6
Sat
08h
+8
Sat
10h
+10
Sat
12h
+12
Sat
14h
+14
Sat
16h
+16
Sat
18h
+18
Sat
20h
+20
Sat
22h
+22
Sun
00h
+24
Sun
02h
+26
Sun
04h
+28
Sun
06h
+30
Sun
08h
+32
Sun
10h
+34
Sun
12h
+36
Sun
14h
#9 Increasing Gale or Storm Signal or above 九號烈風或暴風增強信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 25122129323023
First issued in interval 時間間格內首次發出機率 2371110852
#10 Hurricane Signal 十號颶風信號
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 124811141411
First issued in interval 時間間格內首次發出機率 11255542

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率 (SAMPLE 樣本)
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號#1+#3+#8+#9+#10
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率--100935027
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率99--------

The features of these tables are listed below:

此表所述資料如下:

Using the Probability Plots 使用機率圖像

There are three types of probability plots; a sample of each plot is given below, together with annotations:

本產品共有三類圖像,樣本 (附註解) 如下:

Click here to return to the product page, or here for the methodology.

按此回到本產品頁,或按此了解分析方法。

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Wed Jan 29 2020 23:51:06 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Wed May 10 2017

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