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TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋信號機率 [Refresh 更新]

Signal Probabilities for Active TCs 正活躍熱帶氣旋之信號機率

(There are currently no tropical cyclones for which signal probabilities are calculated. 現時沒有熱帶氣旋信號機率提供。)

Brief Description 簡介

Quick links 快速連結 : [Methodology 分析方法] [How to use 使用方法]

Making use of statistical models, we analyze the tropical cyclone signals issued by the Hong Kong Observatory between 1961 and 2014 and obtain an algorithm that predicts the likelihood of tropical cyclone signal issuance for storms that may affect Hong Kong. The factors taken into consideration include the geographical location of a tropical cyclone and its intensity. The model is applied on our track forecast, suitably accounting for the forecast errors. As such, these probabilities indicate the likelihood of signal issuance based on our forecast track and our historical track variability.

The results are presented in the form of: (a) "Point" or instantaneous probabilities, i.e. the likelihood of having a particular signal (or above) issued at a certain point in time, and (b) "interval" probabilities, i.e. the likelihood of a particular signal (or above) being issued or cancelled during a time interval. The former is useful for the user to get a sense of how likely a signal will be in force during tropical cyclone approach, while the latter is useful when the time of signal change is of interest.

Please bear in mind that the model-based probabilities are meant to be a summary of historical data and may not accurately reflect the evolution of every tropical cyclone that may be subject to a specific set of environmental conditions. Results presented on this page are for reference only and are not related to the official information disseminated by the Hong Kong Observatory; our Disclaimer applies. The interested reader may refer to this page, which contains a detailed description on the methodology of our analysis and interpretation of the results.

利用統計學模型,本站分析香港天文台於 1961 至 2014 年間所發出的熱帶氣旋警告信號,以此模型估算熱帶氣旋靠近香港時天文台發出警告信號的機會。此分析使用熱帶氣旋的地理位置及強度數據,擬合得出的模型套用至本站之路徑預測及相關誤差,因此所示資訊為按照本站的預測路徑及歷史誤差所得出的機率。

本頁的結果以兩種方式表示:(1) 定點時間機率,即於未來某一時間點之某信號 (或更高) 生效機率,及 (2) 時間間隔機率,即未來某兩時間點之間某信號 (或更高) 發出或取消的機率。前者有助用者評估熱帶氣旋靠近時某信號生效機會,而後者則較側重於信號轉變的時間。

請務必留意由統計模式得出的機率只能概括歷史數據。由於每個熱帶氣旋對應著特定的環境狀況,此等數據未必能準確反映熱帶氣旋未來的演化。本頁所有數據只供參考,並與香港天文台發布的官方資訊無關,而本站之聲明同時適用。有興趣的讀者可參閱此頁,以了解此分析的詳細內容及詮釋結果的方法。

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Thu Nov 23 2017 11:25:45 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Thu Apr 13 2017

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