| Forecast Track 預測路徑圖 |
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| Overview 總覽 |
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A disturbance north of Guam has been intensifying rapidly last night and attained severe tropical storm strength today, which was named KAJIKI by the JMA. At 14 HKT, KAJIKI was centred 540 km (290 NM) SSE of Iwo Jima.
在關島以北的一個熱帶擾動由昨晚開始急速增強,並於今天增強為一強烈熱帶風暴,被日本氣象廳命名為劍魚。在 14 HKT,劍魚集結在硫磺島之東南偏南約 540 公里 (290 海里)。
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| Movement Analysis 路徑分析 |
A mid-latitude trough is enhancing the break between the subtropical ridge anchored ENE of KAJIKI and another ridge near Vietnam. KAJIKI should track towards the break and will eventually recurve.
一道西風槽正擴大在副熱帶高壓脊及西邊的高壓脊之間的弱點。預料劍魚將會通過此弱點, 從而在預測後期向北至東北方向移動。 |
| Intensity Analysis 強度分析 |
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/INT OBS
Situated in an environment with very weak vertical wind shear and promising sea surface temperatures, KAJIKI has developed a good outflow channel and has been intensifying rapidly in the past 24 hours. It is forecast that some intensification is still possible before KAJIKI crosses the ridge axis as the excellent ambient environment continues, after which the system should weaken as it counters substantially higher shear and lower sea temperatures.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/INT OBS
由於劍魚正處於弱垂直風切變的環境及溫暖的海水中,劍魚再過去 24 小時急速增強。預料劍魚將會在良好的大氣環境中增強為一颱風,但當劍魚橫過脊線後將因受較強的垂直風切變及較冷的海水影響而減弱。 |
| Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響 |
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
劍魚於未來的72小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。 |
| Next Update 下次更新 |
19 HKT, 2007/10/20 (or earlier 或更早) |
| Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率 |
Not Applicable 不適用
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