Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
KALMAEGI made its second landfall at Zhejiang last night. At 14 HKT, KALMAEGI was centred about 220 km (120 NM) SSW of Shanghai.
海鷗於昨晚登陸浙江。在 14 HKT，海鷗集結在上海西南偏南約 220 公里 (120 海里)。
Movement Analysis 路徑分析
It is expected that KALMAEGI will move NNE then NE along the NW and northern periphery of the subtropical ridge towards the East China Sea and Korea.
預料海鷗將沿副熱帶高壓脊的西北/北面向東北偏北轉東北移動，進入東海及趨向韓國。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: N/A
It is expected that the landmass of eastern China, lower sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea and the landmass of Korea will gradually cause KALMAEGI to weaken. It will transform into an extratropical transition near t+24.
現時的 T 號碼: 不適用
海鷗將因為受到中國東部陸地、較冷的東海水溫和韓國陸地的影響而逐漸減弱並於將於 24 小時後開始轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
海鷗於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響 。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2008/07/20 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
It is expected that KALMAEGI will move N along the eastern coast of China and will recurve to Korea as it moves along the NW periphery of the subtropical ridge.
Current T-number: T3.0/4.0/W2.0/24 HRS
KALMAEGI weakens as it interacts with the terrains of Taiwan. KALMAEGI will maintain strength prior to its second landfall, after which the landmass of eastern China, lower sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea and the landmass of Korea will cause KALMAEGI to weaken. KALMAEGI will start extratropical transition near t+48.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/4.0/W2.0/24 HRS
海鷗在橫過台灣時大幅減弱。預料海鷗可在第二次登陸前維持強度，其後將因為受到中國東部陸地、較冷的東海水溫和韓國陸地的影響而減弱。海鷗將於 48 小時後開始轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
海鷗於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響 。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2008/07/19 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
The ridge east of KALMAEGI remains as its steering ridge. However, with the western extension of that ridge ahead of KALMAEGI, a westward component is observed in KALMAEGI's track. It is expected that KALMAEGI will move NNW to approach Taiwan, Zhejiang and Shanghai, after which it will recurve and enter East China Sea.
Current T-number: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS
Good poleward outflow enabled KALMAEGI to strengthen in the past 24 hours. It is expected that the landmasses of Taiwan and eastern China, lower sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea and the landmass of Korea will cause KALMAEGI to weaken from t+12 onwards. KALMAEGI will start extratropical transition near t+72.
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
KALMAEGI became stationary last night and this was followed by an immediate northerly track. It has also intensified into a severe tropical storm. At 14 HKT, KALMAEGI was centred about 510 km (270 NM) SE of Gaoxiong.
The ridge east of KALMAEGI has been strengthening and has become its dominant steering ridge which contributes to its northward movement. The western extension of that subtropical ridge to the north of KALMAEGI is gradually weakening (and is weakening faster than previously expected). KALMAEGI will move NNW to N to edge closer to Taiwan in the next 36 hours, after which it will travel NNE in the East China Sea along the NW periphery of the ridge.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS
Poleward outflow has become better in the past 24 hours. As KALMAEGI is still in a good environment, it should be able to intensify to typhoon strength in 12 to 24 hours. Near t+36, land interactions with Taiwan will cease intensification and the lower sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea will cause KALMAEGI to weaken. Finally KALMAEGI should interact with the westerlies and start extratropical transition near t+96.
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
08W slowly intensified into a tropical storm and was named KALMAEGI, while travelling SW to WSW in the past 24 hours. At 14 HKT, KALMAEGI was centred about 630 km (340 NM) SE of Gaoxiong.
Subject to competing steering flows to the north and the south of the storm due to the extension of the subtropical ridge at low and high latitudes, KALMAEGI remains quasi-stationary in the past 24 hours. It is expected that KALMAEGI will travel W slowly in the next 24 hours as the ridge to the south is weakening. A mid-latitude trough will cause the northern ridge to retreat after t+36 to t+48, which will allow a NW to NNW movement at that time towards Fujian.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS
Although the wind shear is low and the sea temperature is quite high at KALMAEGI's current position, poleward outflow has yet to strengthen to allow quick intensification. Together with land interactions with northern Philippines, KALMAEGI will maintain strength before entering South China Sea (SCS), after which it will pick up strength in a generally favorable environment in the northeastern part of the SCS.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS
雖然海鷗處於弱垂直風切變和高水溫的區域，但高層輻散仍有待改善。加上菲律賓陸地的影響，預料海鷗將進入南海前維持強度，其後將可在南海東北部的良好環境中增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
According to the present forecast track, no threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
根據現時預測路徑，海鷗於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2008/07/16 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈暴增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
Tropical disturbance 93W has intensified into a tropical depression this morning and JTWC gave it a temporary number of 08W. At 14 HKT, 08W was centred about 640 km (350 NM) SE of Gaoxiong.
Subject to competing steering flows to the north and the south of the storm due to the extension of the subtropical ridge at low and high latitudes, 08W remains quasi-stationary in the past 24 hours. It is expected that 08W will travel W to WNW slowly in the next 24 hours as steered by the northern ridge (and due to internal force), after which it should accelerate NW to NNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge towards Taiwan.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
Although the wind shear is low and the sea temperature is quite high at 08W's current position, upper level divergence has yet to strengthen to allow quick intensification. It is therefore expected that 08W will intensify at less than the climatological rate in the next 72 hours.
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
