NURI swept past Hong Kong from the SE to the NW in the afternoon and its centre seems to have passed through the Hong Kong Observatory between 17 and 18 HKT. It has also weakened into a severe tropical storm. At 20 HKT, NURI was centred near Tuen Mun, i.e. about 20 km (10 NM) WNW of the Hong Kong Observatory.
NURI will maintain the present track before its dissipation near t+36 hours.
預料鸚鵡將於未來 36 小時向西北或西北偏西移動，趨向香港一帶並於 36 小時後在內陸消散。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/06 HRS
NURI is expected to weaken and dissipate in 36 hours.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/06 HRS 鸚鵡將逐步減弱，並在 36 小時內消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Cyclonic gale force winds (or above) are expected to blow in Hong Kong. Southwesterly winds will dominate later as the storm moves to NW of Hong Kong, occasionally reaching hurricane force on high grounds and in offshore waters at first. Rain will be heavy at times. Winds will gradually subside tomorrow morning..
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
NURI continues to edge closer to Hong Kong. At 14 HKT, NURI was centred about 40 km (20 NM) ESE of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Number 9 Increasing Gale or Storm Signal at 13:40 HKT.
NURI will maintain the present track before its dissipation near t+36 hours.
預料鸚鵡將於未來 36 小時向西北或西北偏西移動，趨向香港一帶並於 36 小時後在內陸消散。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/06 HRS
NURI is expected to weaken slightly before landfall and rapidly afterwards.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/06 HRS 鸚鵡將於登陸前稍為減弱，並於登陸後急速減弱，在 36 小時內消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Cyclonic gale force winds (or above) are expected to blow in Hong Kong. As the storm moves further north, its strong southern rainbands will bring heavy rain and squalls to Hong Kong.
香港將吹烈風程度或以上的旋風。隨著風暴北移，它南面緊密的雨雲帶將為本港帶來大雨和狂風。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/08/22 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Low 低
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
NURI turned to the NW in the past 12 hours. At 08 HKT, NURI was centred about 160 km (90 NM) SE of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Number 8 NW Gale or Storm Signal at 07:40 HKT.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS
As NURI edges closer to land, it is expected to weaken slightly before landfall and rapidly afterwards.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/12 HRS 由於鸚鵡逐漸靠近陸地，預料它將於登陸前稍為減弱，並於登陸後急速減弱，在 48 小時內消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Northerly winds of gale force or above is expected now; winds will strengthen later today as NURI moves closer to Hong Kong. Exact wind direction depends on where it makes landfall.
香港現時普遍吹偏北烈風。預料風勢將於鸚鵡登陸時進一步加強；確實的風向將取決於鸚鵡登陸的位置。
Next Update 下次更新
16 HKT, 2008/08/22 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
Issued 已發出
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Medium 中等
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Low 低
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
NURI maintained a WNW movement in the past 12 hours, and has weakened a bit. At 20 HKT, NURI was centred about 310 km (170 NM) SE of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Strong Wind Signal Number 3 at 20:40 HKT.
The ridge north of NURI is eroding away. It is expected that NURI will maintain the present track and move WNW towards Guangdong coast in the next 24 hours. It should take a poleward turn after landfall.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/06 HRS
Shear has increased dramatically in the South China Sea. As NURI edges closer to land, it is expected to weaken slightly before landfall and rapidly afterwards.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/06 HRS 南海的垂直風切變昨夜急速增強。由於鸚鵡逐漸靠近陸地，預料它將於登陸前稍為減弱，並於登陸後急速減弱，在 48 小時內消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Onset of strong northerly winds is expected later tonight. Rain will become heavy and gale force winds (or above) are expected tomorrow
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
NURI maintained a WNW movement in the past 12 hours after a NW jog. At 14 HKT, NURI was centred about 390 km (210 NM) SE of Hong Kong. As NURI is approaching, the Observatory will consider the Strong Wind Signal later this afternoon.
The subtropical ridge in southeastern China has brought the WNW movement in the past 12 hours. A mid-latitude trough previously near Mongolia is travelling to the east and is expected to erode the ridge soon. Therefore NURI's track should gradually turn poleward in the next 48 hours. In the current forecast, a landfall in the vicinity of Hong Kong is expected.
Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/S0.0/18 HRS
Shear has increased dramatically in the South China Sea. Warm sea surface temperatures is expected to allow NURI to maintain strength before landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/S0.0/18 HRS 南海的垂直風切變昨夜急速增強。預料頗高的水溫應可令鸚鵡維持強度直至接近陸地。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Onset of strong northerly winds is expected later tonight. Rain will become heavy and gale force winds (or above) are expected tomorrow
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
Intrusion of drier air from the north has stripped off NURI's northern convections. At 20 HKT, NURI was centred about 730 km (390 NM) ESE of Hong Kong. The Observatory has issued the Standby Signal at 18:15 HKT.
The subtropical ridge has moved to ENE of NURI while linking with the high pressure cell in southeastern China. The steering forces provided by these ridges partially offset each other which contributes to NURI's decreased speed in the past 12 hours. As the ridges remain strong with no significant weakening factors in the next 24 hours, it is unlikely that the weakness between them is going to deepen soon; instead the combined steering force will be in the WNW direction in the next 24 hours. A mid-latitude trough will erode the ridge in southeastern China in 24 to 36 hours, and thus NURI is expected to move with increasing poleward component near t+36.
Current T-number: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/06 HRS
Proximity to land is hindering NURI's intensification at this moment. Slight intensification is possible as poleward outflow develops while the storm is in South China Sea together with warm sea surface temperatures. Rapid weakening is expected upon landfall near t+48.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/06 HRS 由於接近陸地，鸚鵡在過去 24 小時強度變化不大。預料鸚鵡的極向輻散通道將會於稍後變好；而南海的水溫亦有利增強。48 小時後，鸚鵡將由於移近陸地而開始減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Subsidence associated to NURI is expected to bring very hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong on Thursday. Onset of rain and strong winds is expected on Friday. Its effect to Hong Kong will depend greatly on its place of landfall.
The subtropical ridge has moved to ENE of NURI while linking with the high pressure cell in southeastern China. The steering forces provided by these ridges partially offset each other which contributes to NURI's decreased speed in the past 12 hours. As the ridges remain strong with no significant weakening factors in the next 24 hours, it is unlikely that the weakness between them is going to deepen soon; instead the combined steering force will be in the WNW direction in the next 24 hours. A mid-latitude trough will erode the ridge in southeastern China in 24 to 48 hours, and thus NURI is expected to move with increasing poleward component near t+48.
Current T-number: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS
Proximity to land is hindering NURI's intensification at this moment. Slight intensification is possible as poleward outflow develops while the storm is in South China Sea together with warm sea surface temperatures. Rapid weakening is expected upon landfall near t+48.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS 由於接近陸地，鸚鵡在過去 24 小時強度變化不大。預料鸚鵡的極向輻散通道將會於稍後變好；而南海的水溫亦有利增強。48 小時後，鸚鵡將由於移近陸地而開始減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Subsidence associated to NURI is expected to bring very hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong today and tomorrow. Onset of rain and strong winds is expected on Friday. Its effect to Hong Kong will depend greatly on its place of landfall.
The subtropical ridge originally north of NURI has shifted eastward, but its western extension is still strong and broad enough to sustain a WNW movement at a high speed (about 25 km/h). It is expected that NURI will move WNW in the next 24 to 36 hours, after which it will track NW to NNW in the SW periphery of the ridge towards southeastern China.
Current T-number: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS
It is expected that high sea surface temperatures and good equatorward outflow will continue to allow NURI to intensify in the next 48 hours; intensification in South China Sea is possible as shear is very low there. It will weaken as it makes landfall near t+60.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS 在橫向輻散通道良好及海水溫暖的環境下，鸚鵡將可在未來 48 小時稍為增強；南海極低的垂直風切變亦有利增強。60 小時後，鸚鵡將由於移近陸地而開始減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Subsidence associated to NURI is expected to bring very hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong on Wednesday. Onset of rain is expected on Thursday or Friday. Its effect to Hong Kong will depend greatly on its place of landfall.
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
13W continues its intensification during the night and was was named NURI by the JMA. It reaches severe tropical storm status in 1-minute standard this afternoon. At 14 HKT, NURI was centred about 1410 km (760 NM) ESE of Gaoxiong.
The strong subtropical ridge north of the system continues to propel NURI quickly to the west, and NURI will maintain the current velocity as the shape of the ridge stays almost the same in the next 36 hours. A mid-latitude trough will arrive in 48 to 72 hours to erode the ridge and will allow NURI to take a more northerly track. As NURI continues to move faster than expected, it is now forecast to take the poleward turn after traversing Luzon Strait. As stated in the previous bulletin, the time that this subtropical ridge retreats is a crucial factor in determing the time of recurvature.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/18 HRS
NURI is expected to travel through warm sea surfaces in the next 72 hours, and equatorward outflow remains very good. It is expected that this system will intensify at near or slightly greater than climatological rate in the next 72 hours before weakening as a result of land interaction.
Please click here for the plain text version of the track data. 請按此觀看純文字資料。
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象聽路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
Tropical disturbance 92W consolidated quickly and intensified into a tropical depression this morning and further into a tropical storm tonight. At 20 HKT, 13W was centred about 1890 km (1020 NM) ESE of Taipei.
The strong subtropical ridge north of the system is propelling 13W quickly to the west. As the ridge continues to extend, it is forecast that 13W will move W to WNW in the next 72 hours. Extended forecast calls for a sharp retreat of the ridge as a mid-latitude trough arrives and this retreat will drive 13W northwards to the seas east of Taiwan. In this case, the time that this subtropical ridge retreats is a crucial factor in determing the time of recurvature.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
13W is expected to travel through warm sea surfaces in the next 96 to 120 hours, and outflow is also improving. It is expected that this system will intensify at near or slightly greater than climatological rate in the next 96 to 120 hours.
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
