SINLAKU regained typhoon status briefly earlier today, but weakened back into a severe tropical storm later. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 280 km (150 NM) SW of Tokyo.
It is expected that SINLAKU will move ENE to E along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
預料森垃克將沿副高北面向東或東北偏東移動。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T3.0/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS
SINLAKU will weaken gradually in cooler water and in an environment with stronger vertical wind shear. Extratropical transition should be complete by t+36.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS
預料森垃克將於較冷海水和較強垂直風切變環境中逐漸減弱，並於 36 小時後完成溫帶氣旋轉化。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
森垃克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
00 HKT, 2008/09/21 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
SINLAKU skirted the seas south of Kagoshima last night and continued to intensify. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 120 km (70 NM) SE of Kagoshima.
It is expected that SINLAKU will move NE to ENE along the northern to north-northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Acceleration is expected as it enters the westerlies.
預料森垃克將沿副高北至西北偏北面向東北或東北偏東移動，當其進入西風帶後移速將會逐漸加快。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
SINLAKU will weaken gradually in cooler water and in an environment with stronger vertical wind shear. Extratropical transition is expected near t+36.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
預料森垃克將於較冷海水和較強垂直風切變環境中逐漸減弱，並於 36 小時後開始溫帶氣旋轉化。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
森垃克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/09/19 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
SINLAKU turned to NE earlier today and intensified a bit. It can be seen that convections are flaring on SINLAKU's western side. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 380 km (210 NM) SW of Kagoshima.
It is expected that SINLAKU will move NE then ENE along the northwestern then northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Acceleration is expected as it enters the westerlies.
預料森垃克將沿副高西北轉北面向東北轉東北偏東移動，當其進入西風帶後移速將會逐漸加快。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
Improved outflow is the major factor contributing to SINLAKU's re-intensification. SINLAKU will maintain strength or slightly strengthen in good outflow conditions in the next 24 hours. It will weaken rapidly afterwards in cooler water and in an environment with stronger vertical wind shear.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
由於輻散再度轉好，森垃克於過去 12 小時重新增強。預料森垃克將於進入西風帶前維持強度或於良好輻散中增強少許，隨後將於較冷海水和較強垂直風切變環境中急速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
森垃克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/09/18 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
It is expected that ENE movement will be observed in the next 24 hours, after which it will turn NE towards southern Japan as it approaches the northwestern quadrant of the subtropical ridge currently to the east of SINLAKU. It will resume ENE movement along the northern periphery of the ridge after t+72.
Current T-number: T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24 HRS
Intrusion of dry air has caused SINLAKU's weakening in the past 24 hours. SINLAKU will maintain strength or slightly weaken before going into the westerlies in fair conditions. It will weaken rapidly afterwards in cooler water and in an environment with stronger vertical wind shear.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24 HRS
乾空氣的入侵令森垃克於過去 24 小時減弱。預料森垃克將於進入西風帶前維持強度或減弱少許，隨後將於較冷海水和較強垂直風切變環境中急速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
森垃克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/09/17 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
The weakness between the ridges enlarged today and SINLAKU is able to escape from the pressure col that it was situated in during the past few days. It is expected that ENE movement will be observed in the next 24 hours, after which it will turn NE towards southern Japan as it approaches the northwestern quadrant of the subtropical ridge currently to the east of SINLAKU. It will resume ENE movement along the northern periphery of the ridge after t+60.
Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS
SINLAKU will maintain strength before going into the westerlies in fair conditions. It will weaken rapidly afterwards in cooler water and stronger vertical wind shear.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS
森垃克將於進入西風帶前維持強度，隨後將於較冷海水和較強垂直風切變環境中急速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
The effect of SINLAKU's subsidence will diminish in the next two days.
森垃克的下沉氣流對香港之影響將於未來兩天逐漸減弱。
Next Update 下次更新
00 HKT, 2008/09/17 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
SINLAKU has made landfall near Ilan at 01:30 HKT today and remained near northern Taiwan for the rest of the day, weakening considerably. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 80 km (40 NM) NNW of Taipei.
Under the guidance of the ridge east of SINLAKU, a short-term north-northwesterly track will be observed, after which both ridges (east and west of SINLAKU) will be eroded by a passing mid-latitude trough to provide room for recurvature. The ridge to the west of the system will keep speeds slow in the next 24 hours.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.5/W1.5/24 HRS
Prolonged exposure to land has resulted in SINLAKU's weakening and its convection has become loose. It is expected that SINLAKU can intensify slightly in water in the next 24 hours, after which shear and sea temperatures will become increasingly unfavorable for SINLAKU's development.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.5/W1.5/24 HRS
由於長時間接近陸地，森垃克於未來 24 小時大幅減弱，對流變得鬆散。預料森垃克出海後可在未來 24 小時稍微增強，隨後將於較高垂直風切變的環境和較涼的海水中急速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
The effect of SINLAKU's subsidence will diminish in the next two days.
森垃克的下沉氣流對香港之影響將於未來兩天逐漸減弱。
Next Update 下次更新
00 HKT, 2008/09/16 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
The ridge east of SINLAKU is expected to extend westward to allow a short-term north-northwesterly track, after which both ridges (east and west of SINLAKU) will be eroded by a passing mid-latitude trough to provide room for recurvature. The ridge to the west of the system will keep speeds slow in the next 36 hours.
Current T-number: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/24 HRS
It is expected that proximity to land will cause SINLAKU to weaken gradually in the next 48 hours. It will weaken rapidly after t+48 as it tracks through cooler water into baroclinic zone.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/24 HRS
預料森垃克將由於接近陸地而於未來 48 小時稍為減弱。48 小時後森垃克將於較涼海水中急速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
SINLAKU's subsidence will continue to bring very hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong in the next two days.
森垃克的下沉氣流將會於未來兩天繼續為香港帶來酷熱和有煙霞的天氣。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/09/14 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
The ridge east of SINLAKU is expected to extend westward to allow a short-term northwesterly track, after which it will be eroded by a passing mid-latitude trough to provide room for recurvature. The ridge to the west of the system will keep speeds slow in the next 48 hours.
Current T-number: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/24 HRS
SINLAKU failed to intensify after eyewall replacement, which is partly contributed by intrusion of dry air in the northwestern quadrant earlier. It is expected that SINLAKU will maintain strength through t+24, after which proximity to land will cause SINLAKU to weaken. It will weaken rapidly after t+72 as it tracks through cooler water.
SINLAKU moved NNE slowly in the past 24 hours but has weakened slightly compared with the 02 and 08 HKT data of 125 knots in strength. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 470 km (260 NM) E of Gaoxiong.
SINLAKU is currently inside a pressure col which accounts for its slow movement. A mid-latitude trough near Japan is moving to the east and is not expected to greatly weaken the eastern ridge. The ridge will instead extend after the passage of this trough to induce WNW movement from t+12 to t+48. It is expected a second trough will develop and weaken the ridges further to allow a larger gap for SINLAKU to pass through and recurve eventually. Another possible scenario is that the second ridge may not develop in time or the westward extension of the eastern ridge is so great that SINLAKU makes landfall at Taiwan instead, and a few models have already started depicting this scenario. Therefore there is a chance that the forecast track will have to be adjusted further westward.
Current T-number: T5.5/6.0/W0.5/24 HRS
SINLAKU's rapid intensification ceased as it entered an eyewall replacement cycle, and this is partly responsible for its occasional erratic movement in the past 24 hours. As replacement finishes, SINLAKU will intensify again as it is still situated in excellent environment with decent convergence and divergence channels. It is expected that SINLAKU will weaken from t+36 to t+48 as it nears Taiwan.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/6.0/W0.5/24 HRS 森垃克進入了眼牆置換週期，因而停止增強，同時也是它間中移動不規則的其中一個原因。預料眼牆置換完成後，森垃克可在良好環境下繼續增強。36 至 48 小時後森垃克將由於接近台灣而開始減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
SINLAKU's subsidence will continue to bring hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong in the next two to three days.
森垃克的下沉氣流將會於未來兩三天繼續為香港帶來炎熱和有煙霞的天氣。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/09/12 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
SINLAKU continued to intensify at greater than climatological rate, now being a category 4 typhoon with a well-defined eye. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 470 km (260 NM) ESE of Gaoxiong.
The subtropical ridge has broken into a eastern and a western one. SINLAKU is currently inside a pressure col which accounts for its slow movement. The eastern N-S oriented ridge will be its primary steering force and SINLAKU will go north slowly in the next 72 hours, which a possible westward component as the ridge extends shortly to the west. However the ridge will not be in time to extend before recurvature occurs, and SINLAKU may make landfall at Japan in the extended forecast period.
Current T-number: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS
SINLAKU's rapid intensification was again brought by excellent outflow and extremely low vertical wind shear in its neighbourhood. The trough that weakened the ridge will further enhance SINLAKU's outflow and will lead to continual intensification through t+36 to t+48, with a possibility of becoming a category 5 typhoon. SINLAKU will start weakening since t+48 to t+72 as it encounters reduced heat content.
15W was named SINLAKU by the JMA early today. SINLAKU intensified rapidly during the day, becoming a typhoon tonight. At 20 HKT, SINLAKU was centred about 680 km (370 NM) SE of Gaoxiong.
A trough in central China is propagating to the east. The subtropical ridge anchored to the north of SINLAKU has weakened considerably, while the high pressure to the east seems to be extending westward at below SINLAKU's latitude. SINLAKU will be situated in a pressure col soon and will slow down gradually while moving to the north. The major trough will break down the ridge in China by t+48 and a N-S oriented ridge is expected to build to the east of SINLAKU, allowing a northward movement through t+96.
Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24 HRS
SINLAKU's rapid intensification was brought by excellent outflow and extremely low vertical wind shear in its neighbourhood. It is expected as the trough traverses, it will further enhance SINLAKU's outflow and will lead to continual intensification through t+72, with a possibility of becoming a super typhoon. SINLAKU will start weakening since t+72 as it encounters reduced heat content.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24 HRS 微弱的垂直風切變和極好的輻散通道令森垃克快速增強。預料西風槽的到來將可加強森垃克的輻散，令其得以在 t+72 前繼續增強，或可成為一超級颱風。72 小時後森垃克將受到較涼海水的影響而開始減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
As SINLAKU intensifies, its subsidence may bring hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong two days later.
隨著森垃克增強，它的下沉氣流可能會於兩天後為香港帶來炎熱和有煙霞的天氣。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/09/10 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
A disturbance (95W) east of the Philippines developed quickly into a depression earlier today, and intensified into a tropical storm this evening. JTWC has given it a temporary number of 15W. At 20 HKT, 15W was centred about 540 km (290 NM) ENE of Manila.
A subtropical ridge is positioned north of 15W currently. However the steering effect is rather weak and it is expected that 15W will move slowly in the next 24 to 48 hours. A mid-latitude trough is forecast to greatly weaken the ridge, and 15W may go northwards towards the weakness in the ridge later on.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/INT OBS
Ocean heat content is high over the seas east of Taiwan. As the ridge traverses ouflow channels are expected to improve to allow strengthening.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/INT OBS 台灣附近海面熱能量充足。西風槽到來後 15W 的輻散有望變得更好，令 15W 得以繼續增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
As 15W intensifies, it may bring hot and hazy weather to Hong Kong two to three days later.
隨著 15W 增強，它可能會於兩三天後為香港帶來炎熱和有煙霞的天氣。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/09/09 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
