HAGUPIT has weakened into a severe tropical storm. At 20 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 590 km (320 NM) W of Hong Kong. The HKO cancelled all signals at 12:50 HKT.
HAGUPIT intensified briefly into a category 4 typhoon just before landfall. At 11 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 420 km (230 NM) W of Hong Kong. The HKO has cancelled the Number 8 Gale or Storm Signal at 06:30 HKT, replacing it with a Strong Wind Signal.
HAGUPIT continued to travel W to WNW in the South China Sea. At 20 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 180 km (100 NM) S of Hong Kong. The HKO has issued the Number 8 Northeast Gale or Storm Signal at 18:00 HKT.
HAGUPIT's steering ridge has moved eastward and the eastern ridge has extended and merged with the western one. It is expected that a WNW motion at slightly decreased speed will be observed in the next 24 hours.
Current T-number: T6.0/6.0/S0.0/06 HRS
Good outflow has been an important factor for HAGUPIT to maintain strength or even strengthen in the past 12 hours. Land interaction should weaken HAGUPIT slightly in the next 12 hours before landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T6.0/6.0/S0.0/06 HRS
良好輻散令黑格比於過去 12 小時稍為增強。受陸地影響，預料黑格比將於未來 12 小時稍為減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Northeasterly winds have reached gale force in most parts of the territory, while a couple of stations are registering sustained storm force winds. Winds will continue to be very strong in the early hours on Wednesday and wind direction should turn clockwise from northeast to southeast.
Predicted Time of Closest Approach (CPA) 預測最接近香港時間 [New 新]
According to the forecast track, HAGUPIT will be closest to Hong Kong near 22 HKT to 23 HKT tonight. Wind speed at CPA is estimated to be about 105 knots (195 km/h) in 1-min standard and 90 knots (165 km/h) in 10-min standard.
HAGUPIT continued to travel W to WNW in the South China Sea. At 14 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 270 km (150 NM) SE of Hong Kong. The HKO has issued the Strong Wind Signal at 10:25 HKT, and will consider the need of higher signals between 16 and 20 HKT.
HAGUPIT's steering ridge has moved eastward and the eastern ridge has extended and merged with the western one. It is expected that a WNW motion at slightly decreased speed will be observed in the next 24 hours.
Current T-number: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/06 HRS
Shear in the South China Sea has increased. Together with land interaction, HAGUPIT should weaken slightly in the next 24 hours before landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/06 HRS
南海的垂直風切變繼續提升。加上陸地影響開始變得明顯，預料黑格比將於未來 24 小時減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
The weather is gradually deteriorating now with strengthening north to northeasterly winds. Winds will be very strong in the early hours on Wednesday (with a possibility of gale force winds or higher) and wind direction should turn clockwise from northeast to southeast. HAGUPIT is a fast-moving system; precautionary measures should be made as soon as possible.
Predicted Time of Closest Approach (CPA) 預測最接近香港時間 [New 新]
According to the forecast track, HAGUPIT will be closest to Hong Kong near 23 HKT 2008/09/23 (Tue) to 05 HKT 2008/09/24 (Wed). Wind speed at CPA is estimated to be about 95 knots (175 km/h) in 1-min standard and 85 knots (155 km/h) in 10-min standard.
HAGUPIT has entered the South China Sea. At 23 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 680 km (370 NM) ESE of Hong Kong. The HKO has issued the Standby Signal at 18:40 HKT on 09/22.
The ridges strengthened last night and HAGUPIT is now being steered by the western ridge. It is expected that HAGUPIT will maintain a WNW motion before landfall as it is steered by that ridge north of the system. Forward speed is expected to average 25 km/h in the next 48 hours.
Current T-number: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/06 HRS
Shear in the South China Sea has increased, but is still moderate. Seas are warm in HAGUPIT's neighbourhood. However due to land interaction, it should maintain strength or slightly weaken in the next 24 hours.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/06 HRS
雖然南海垂直風切變略有提升，但仍維持中等水平。水溫仍高，但陸地影響開始變得明顯。預料黑格比可於未來 24 小時維持強度或稍為減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Hazy weather is expected in the first few hours of Tuesday (today). The weather is expected to deteriorate rapidly in Tuesday evening with strengthening north to northeasterly winds. Winds will be very strong in the early hours on Wednesday (with a possibility of gale force winds or higher) and wind direction should turn clockwise from northeast to southeast. HAGUPIT is a fast-moving system; precautionary measures should be made as soon as possible.
Predicted Time of Closest Approach (CPA) 預測最接近香港時間 [New 新]
According to the forecast track, HAGUPIT will be closest to Hong Kong near 23 HKT 2008/09/23 (Tue) to 05 HKT 2008/09/24 (Wed). Wind speed at CPA is estimated to be about 85 knots (155 km/h) in 1-min standard and 75 knots (140 km/h) in 10-min standard.
HAGUPIT's motion has turned to WNW since early today, intensifying into a category 3 typhoon. At 17 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 830 km (450 NM) ESE of Hong Kong. The HKO has issued the Standby Signal at 18:40 HKT.
The ridges strengthened last night and HAGUPIT is now being steered by the western ridge. It is expected that HAGUPIT will maintain a WNW motion before landfall as it is steered by that ridge north of the system. Forward speed is expected to average 25 km/h in the next 48 hours.
Current T-number: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS
Improved outflow led to HAGUPIT's intensification in the past 24 hours. Shear in the South China Sea has increased, but is still moderate. Seas are very warm in HAGUPIT's neighbourhood. It is expected that HAGUPIT can intensify further in the next 12 hours. As its northern convections will touch land soon, its development should be hindered from t+12 to t+24. HAGUPIT should be able to maintain its typhoon status before landfall.
Hazy weather is expected on the first half of Tuesday (tomorrow). The weather is expected to deteriorate rapidly in Tuesday night with strengthening north to northeasterly winds. Winds will be very strong on Wednesday (with a possibility of gale force winds or higher) and wind direction should turn clockwise from northeast to southeast. HAGUPIT is a fast-moving system; precautionary measures should be made as soon as possible.
A mid-latitude trough propagated east near Korea last night and induced a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Steered by the eastern ridge, HAGUPIT moved NW steadily today. The trough is now moving away from the weakness and the ridges are expected to strengthen and merge gradually in the next 24 hours. The unified ridge should be WNW-ESE oriented and thus HAGUPIT should gradually switch back to a WNW track into the South China Sea. It is expected to make landfall in central coastal Guangdong before t+72.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
Shear is light and seas are warm in HAGUPIT's neighbourhood. Together with improving outflow, it is expected that HAGUPIT can intensify at climatological rate in the next 24 to 36 hours. Land interaction will hinder its development from t+36. HAGUPIT should be able to maintain its typhoon status before landfall.
As HAGUPIT further intensifies and edges closer to the Luzon Strait, very hot and hazy weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday. Weather is expected to deteriorate rapidly in Tuesday night with strengthening north to northeasterly winds. According to the present forecast track, winds will be very strong on Wednesday (gale force winds or higher) and wind direction should turn clockwise from northeast to southeast.
The strong subtropical ridge north of HAGUPIT is currently steering the system to the WNW. A mid-latitude trough is expected to induce a weakness in the ridge to permit a NW track with decreased forward speed in the following 36 to 48 hours. This trough should not be strong enough to induce a recurvature, and after its passage the ridges will merge to allow a WNW track along its southwestern periphery. HAGUPIT's speed should increase again after t+48.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
Shear is light and seas are warm in HAGUPIT's neighbourhood. Together with improving outflow, it is expected that HAGUPIT can intensify at climatological rate or slightly faster in the next 48 hours. Land interaction and reduced heat content will hinder its development from t+60.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
黑格比所在位置水溫高而垂直風切變頗低。配合正改善的輻散，預料黑格比可於未來 48 小時以氣候平均值或稍快之速度增強。地形影響將於 60 小時後變得明顯，屆時黑格比將開始減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
As HAGUPIT further intensifies and edges closer to the Luzon Strait, very hot and hazy weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday.
隨著黑格比增強並移近呂宋海峽，其下沉氣流將於星期一及二為香港帶來酷熱和有煙霞的天氣。
Next Update 下次更新
00 HKT, 2008/09/22 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Tropical disturbance 93W intensified into a tropical depression (18W) early today, and into a tropical storm in the afternoon which was named HAGUPIT by the JMA. At 20 HKT, HAGUPIT was centred about 1270 km (690 NM) E of Manila.
A strong subtropical ridge to the north of HAGUPIT is expected to steer the storm westward in the next 24 hours. As the ridge gradually weakens after t+24 a northwesterly track should be observed. The ridge is expected to re-strengthen near t+72 to bring a west-northwesterly track. The potential error of the extended period could be high as significant uncertainties exist as for the strength of the subtropical ridge. Some models are depicting a much weaker ridge that may permit a very poleward track or even recurvature. However these models generally do not initiate the system well and so more weight is put on ECMWF's forecast of a persistent WNW to NW track.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/INT OBS
Shear is light and seas are warm in HAGUPIT's neighbourhood. It is expected that HAGUPIT can intensify at climatological rate in the next 72 hours.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/INT OBS
黑格比所在位置水溫高而垂直風切變頗低。於良好環境下，預料黑格比可於未來 72 小時以氣候平均值速度增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
黑格比於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
00 HKT, 2008/09/21 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
