JANGMI will move along the northwestern then northern periphery of the subtropical ridge in the rest of the forecast period, and thus a ENE to E movement is expected.
預料薔薇將於餘下時間沿副高西北轉北部向東至東北偏東移動。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24 HRS
JANGMI is expected to undergo extratropical transition soon.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24 HRS
薔薇即將開始轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
薔薇於未來的72小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/10/01 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
JANGMI will move along the northwestern then northern periphery of the subtropical ridge in the rest of the forecast period, and its track will turn from NE to ENE as it edges closer to Japan.
預料薔薇將於餘下時間沿副高西北轉北部向東北轉東北偏東移動。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T3.0/3.5/W2.0/24 HRS
It is expected that JANGMI will weaken from now on due to land interaction, heightened shear and cooler seas.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.5/W2.0/24 HRS
預料薔薇將繼續受陸地，較高垂直風切變和較冷海水的影響而逐步減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
薔薇於未來的72小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/09/30 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
The ridge was eroded by a mid-latitude trough and now a recurvature is highly possible as JANGMI moves along the NW periphery of the subtropical ridge..
Current T-number: N/A (overland)
Proximity to Taiwan caused JANGMI to weaken prior to landfall. It is expected that JANGMI will weaken as it emerges from Taiwan due to land interaction, heightened shear and cooler seas.
現時的 T 號碼: 不適用 (氣旋中心在陸地上)
薔薇於登陸台灣前因陸地影響而減弱。預料薔薇出海後將繼續受陸地，較高垂直風切變和較冷海水的影響而逐步減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
薔薇於未來的72小時將不會對香港構成任何影響 。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/09/29 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
JANGMI travelled NW steadily, turned WNW in the past 6 hours and intensified further into a category 5 super typhoon. A well-defined, cloud-free eye of around 30 NM in diameter has developed. At 20 HKT, JANGMI was centred about 450 km (240 NM) ESE of Gaoxiong.
The ridges have merged with the eastern one strengthening much faster than the western one. It is expected that JANGMI will travel NW along the southwestern periphery of the ridge to make landfall at Taiwan before t+24. A mid-latitude trough will erode the western ridge sufficiently to allow poleward movement near its second landfall in Fujian Province.
Current T-number: T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24 HRS
Excellent outflow, very light shear and warm water surfaces have led to its intensification into a category 5 super typhoon, the first typhoon to attain such category after SEPAT in 2007. It is believed that JANGMI has reached its maximum intensity and gradual weakening is expected before landfall. Rapid weakening follows as JANGMI crosses Taiwan.
現時的 T 號碼: T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24 HRS
極好的輻散通道，理想水溫和極為微弱的垂直風切變令薔薇增強至五級超級颱風 (對上一個五級超級颱風為 2007 年的聖帕)。薔薇已達附近環境所能容納的最高強度，並將於登陸台灣前稍為減弱。薔薇將於登陸台灣後急速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Hazy and hot weather is expected tomorrow and the day after as JANGMI nears Taiwan.
隨著薔薇逐漸靠近台灣，預料本港明天和後天將會有煙霞，天氣會變得炎熱。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/09/28 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
JANGMI travelled NW in the past 12 hours after a WNW movement yesterday, intensifying into a category 3 typhoon. At 20 HKT, JANGMI was centred about 970 km (520 NM) ESE of Gaoxiong.
A trough passing Korea has created a mild weakness in the subtropical ridge north of JANGMI. It is expected that the ridges will strengthen again, and subject to the southerly airstream from the western periphery of the ridge anchored NE of the storm as well as the westward component from the ridge NW of the storm, JANGMI is expected to travel NW then WNW in the next 48 hours as it approaches the southern edge of the ridges. Another trough is expected to weaken the western ridge near t+48 to t+60 and will allow a more poleward track after t+72.
Current T-number: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS
Outflow is excellent with suitable sea temperatures and little wind shear. JANGMI is expected to intensify at climatological rate or even faster in the next 36 hours. Land interaction will cause the system to weaken starting from near t+48.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS
薔薇的輻散通道極好，附近水溫理想而風切微弱。預料薔薇可於未來 36 小時以氣候平均值或更快速度增強。薔薇將於 48 小時後因陸地影響而開始減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Hazy and hot weather is expected one to two days later as JANGMI nears southern Taiwan.
隨著薔薇逐漸靠近台灣南部，預料本港一兩天後將會有煙霞，天氣會變得炎熱。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/09/27 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
JANGMI intensified into a typhoon. At 20 HKT, JANGMI was centred about 1450 km (780 NM) SE of Gaoxiong.
薔薇已增強為一颱風。在 20 HKT，薔薇集結在高雄東南約 1450 公里 (780 海里)。
Movement Analysis 路徑分析
A broad subtropical ridge is anchored north to northeast of the system. It is expected that JANGMI will travel NW along the southwestern periphery of the ridge, turning to WNW near t+36 to t+48 as it approaches higher latitude. A mid-latitude is expected to weaken the ridge to allow a NW track again near t+96 but should be insufficient for a recurvature.
Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS
Outflow is excellent with suitable sea temperatures and little wind shear. JANGMI is expected to intensify at climatological rate or even faster in the next 48 hours. Land interaction will cause the system to weaken starting from near t+72.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS
薔薇的輻散通道極好，附近水溫理想而風切微弱。預料薔薇可於未來 48 小時以氣候平均值或更快速度增強。薔薇將於 72 小時後因陸地影響而開始減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Hazy and hot weather is expected three days later as JANGMI nears Luzon Strait.
隨著薔薇逐漸靠近呂宋海峽，預料本港三天後將會有煙霞，天氣會變得炎熱。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/09/26 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Tropical disturbance 96W intensified gradually into a tropical storm (19W) tonight, and the JMA has named it JANGMI. At 20 HKT, JANGMI was centred about 370 km (200 NM) NNW of Yap.
A broad subtropical ridge is anchored north of the system and is NW-SE oriented. It is expected that JANGMI will travel NW along the southwestern periphery of ridge and will turn to WNW gradually as it reaches higher latitude. The models are in poor agreement regarding the track in the extended period, with some of them pointing the storm into the South China Sea and some indicating a more northerly track towards Taiwan or even recurvature. Therefore the uncertainty in the track beyond t+72 is high.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/INT OBS
Moisture is sufficient with suitable sea temperatures and little wind shear. JANGMI is expected to intensify at climatological rate in the next 72 hours.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/INT OBS
薔薇附近水溫理想而風切微弱。預料薔薇可於未來 72 小時以氣候平均值增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
薔薇於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/09/25 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
