HIGOS turned NE near Macau after skirting the Guangdong coast earlier yesterday (10/05). At 23 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 90 km (50 NM) NNW of Hong Kong.
HIGOS will continue to move NE along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
海高斯將沿副高西北部向東北或東北偏東移動。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: N/A
HIGOS is expected to dissipate as it goes further inland.
現時的 T 號碼: 不適用 預料海高斯將於內陸消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Winds and rain subsided as HIGOS's rain bands are now east of Hong Kong. As HIGOS's intensity decreases, prevailing wind direction will turn from southwest to northeast and HIGOS's effect will fade away.
隨著海高斯的雨帶移離香港,本港的風力和雨勢逐漸減弱。風向將由西南轉回東北。
Next Update 下次更新
This is the final bulletin on HIGOS.
這是本站對海高斯的最後一次發佈。
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用
Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告 (請按發佈編號顯示內容)
HIGOS turned eastward after landfall last night, and from RADAR/satallite images its rain/cloud bands consolidated early today. As it is coming close to Hong Kong bulletins are issued again for this system. At 17 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 90 km (50 NM) WSW of Hong Kong.
HIGOS will continue to move NE to ENE along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
海高斯將沿副高西北部向東北或東北偏東移動。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: N/A
HIGOS is expected to maintain strength until it eventually hits inland and weakens.
現時的 T 號碼: 不適用 預料海高斯將維持強度直至深入內陸。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Winds equivalent to that during the issuance of the Number 3 Strong Wind Signal is currently observed in Hong Kong. It is expected strong winds from the south or southwest will blow in Hong Kong, with a chance of observing cyclonic winds if HIGOS hits Hong Kong. Occasional heavy rain is possible from HIGOS's rainbands. Winds should subside after passage of HIGOS later tonight.
HIGOS made its first landfall at eastern Hainan last night and will soon make landfall again at western Guangdong. It has also weakened into a tropical depression. At 14 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 360 km (190 NM) WSW of Hong Kong.
A pressure col is developed as the trough erodes the ridge north of HIGOS. It is expected that HIGOS will move north towards eastern Hainan and western Guangdong before recurving northeast inland.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS
HIGOS still failed to intensify in good ambient environment. It is expected that HIGOS will gradually weaken as it makes landfall at Hainan and weaken rapidly after landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS 雖然週邊環境頗好,但海高斯仍未能增強。隨著海高斯接近海南島,預料它將於未來 24 小時稍為減弱,並於登陸後急速減弱和消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
HIGOS's threat is reduced as it travels more west than expected. However, fresh (strong in offshore waters and on high grounds) southeasterly winds turning clockwise to southwesterlies should still be observed in the next three days together with occasional heavy rain. The wind speed observed in Hong Kong depends critically on whether HIGOS will make landfall at Hainan and the time of recurving to the northeast.
A pressure col is developed as the trough erodes the ridge north of HIGOS. It is expected that HIGOS will move north towards Hainan and western Guangdong before recurving northeast inland.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS
HIGOS still failed to intensify in good ambient environment. It is expected that HIGOS will gradually weaken as it makes landfall at Hainan and weaken rapidly after landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS 雖然週邊環境頗好,但海高斯仍未能增強。隨著海高斯接近海南島,預料它將於未來 24 小時稍為減弱,並於登陸後急速減弱和消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
HIGOS's threat is greatly reduced as it travels more west than expected. However, fresh (strong in offshore waters and on high grounds) southeasterly winds turning clockwise to southwesterlies should still be observed in the next three days together with occasional heavy rain.
HIGOS travelled west into the South China Sea early today. At 20 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 680 km (370 NM) S of Hong Kong. The Number 1 Standby Signal was issued at 19:30 HKT today.
The subtropical ridge north of HIGOS is about to be weakened by a passing mid-latitude trough. This should induce a weakness for HIGOS to complete its recurvature and its forward speed should decrease soon. After recurvature HIGOS is expected to land somewhere in Guangdong and will re-accelerate as it escapes from the pressure col.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS
Convections bursted around the storm which has led to its increasing coverage in terms of cloud bands but HIGOS still failed to effectively wrap the clouds around its centre. Shear in the South China Sea continues to stay at low levels and sea temperatures are quite favorable for storm development. Together with better divergence associated with the arriving trough, HIGOS should be able to intensify in the next 48 hours. Intrusion of dry air should have a negative impact on HIGO's intensity as it nears the Guangdong coast.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS 海高斯附近對流爆發,但由於雲帶未被成功捲入,海高斯強度仍然偏弱。南海的垂直風切變輕微,而水溫適合熱帶氣旋發展。隨著西風槽東移,槽前的輻散有望轉好,預計海高斯能於未來 48 小時逐漸增強。乾空氣的入侵將令海高斯於登陸前稍為減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
From the current forecast track, HIGOS is expected to bring strong winds to Hong Kong during the weekend. However, as landfalling positions are much more difficult to predict in recurvature scenarios, it is not yet possible to tell the exact change in wind direction during the approach of HIGOS. Please refer to official bulletins for the latest forecast tracks.
Predicted Time of Closest Approach (CPA) 預測最接近香港時間
As forecast speeds are lowered due to the increased possibility for HIGOS to position in a pressure col, time for CPA has delayed by almost a day. According to the forecast track, HIGOS will be closest to Hong Kong in the night time on 2008/10/05 (Sun). Wind speed at CPA is estimated to be about 55 knots (100 km/h) in 1-min standard and 50 knots (95 km/h) in 10-min standard.
The subtropical ridge north of HIGOS is expected to bring WNW movement in the next 24 to 36 hours. A mid-latitude trough should arrive at that time to weaken the ridge so that a recurvature scenario could be observed with the storm making landfall in Guangdong.
Current T-number: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS
HIGOS is expected to enter the South China Sea soon. As wind shear has decreased significantly and sea surface temperatures remain good, HIGOS should be able to intensify at climatological rate from t+12 to t+60. Improved outflow may be possible as the trough arrives.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS 海高斯即將進入南海。該處的垂直風切變大幅減弱,而水溫適合熱帶氣旋發展,因而預計海高斯能於 t+12 至 t+60 以氣候平均值速度增強。隨著西風槽東移,槽前的輻散有望轉好,協助海高斯增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
From the current forecast track, HIGOS is expected to bring strong winds to Hong Kong during the weekend. However, as landfalling positions are much more difficult to predict in recurvature scenarios, it is not yet possible to tell the exact change in wind direction during the approach of HIGOS. Please refer to official bulletins for the latest forecast tracks.
The subtropical ridge north of HIGOS is expected to bring WNW movement in the next 48 hours. A mid-latitude trough should arrive at that time to weaken the ridge so that a recurvature scenario could be observed with the storm making landfall in Guangdong.
Current T-number: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS
Potential for intensification remains rather limited in the next 36 hours as HIGOS moves across the Philippines. According to the present track, 21W will move into the South China Sea in 36 hours' time, and it may intensify further as it reaches open waters.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS
受菲律賓地形影響, t+36 前海高斯將不能大幅增強。預料海高斯將於 36 小時後移進南海,增強幅度有望變得較為明顯。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours. However, as HIGOS is expected to edge closer to Guangdong, there is a chance that the weather will deteriorate later this week.
Disturbance 99W intensified into a tropical depression (21W) this afternoon and was soon upgraded to tropical storm status. At 20 HKT, 21W was centred about 1130 km (610 NM) SE of Manila.
A subtropical ridge is anchored north of 21W. It is expected that 21W will travel W then gradually turning poleward in the next 72 hours as it moves along the southwestern periphery of the ridge. The motion is highly dependant on the extent that the ridge extends westwards after JANGMI moves further northeastward.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
Potential for intensification remains rather limited in the next 72 hours as 21W moves to the Philippines. According to the present track, 21W will move into the South China Sea in 72 hours' time, and it may intensify further as it leaves Philippines.