CHAN-HOM's cloud bands kept spiraling about a common centre and the system did not die out within 24 hours of the last bulletin. As CHAN-HOM remained a weak depression our site resumed bulletins on it. At 14 HKT, CHAN-HOM was centred about 520 km (280 NM) S of Okinawa.
CHAN-HOM is now situated west of a subtropical ridge. It is forecast to move north in the next 24 hours.
燦鴻現正在副熱帶高壓脊的西面，預料它將於未來 24 小時向北移動。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24 HRS
The weakening of vertical wind shear allowed CHAN-HOM to barely survive on sea. However sea temperatures are reaching 23 degrees Celsius in the vicinity of CHAN-HOM and is expected to decline as it travels further north. This will cause CHAN-HOM to dissipate in the short run.
現時的 T 號碼: T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24 HRS 由於呂宋海峽以東附近的垂直風切變大幅減弱，所以燦鴻可在洋面上維持其低層環流中心。預料在不斷下降的海水溫度之影響下 (現只有約攝氏 23 度)，燦鴻將於短期內消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
燦鴻於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
Unless CHAN-HOM remains strength in the next 48 hours, this is the final bulletin on the system.
除非燦鴻於未來 48 小時內維持強度，否則這是本站對它的最後一次發佈。
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Not Applicable 不適用
Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告 (請按發佈編號顯示內容)
CHAN-HOM weakened gradually as it travelled eastwards. At 20 HKT, CHAN-HOM was centred about 860 km (460 NM) ENE of Manila.
燦鴻繼續減弱。在 20 HKT，燦鴻集結在馬尼拉東北偏東約 860 公里 (460 海里)。
Movement Analysis 路徑分析
CHAN-HOM will turn north soon as it is now steered by the subtropical ridge which extends to the west.
隨著副熱帶高壓脊西移，燦鴻將轉受它的影響而轉向偏北方向移動。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T1.5/2.0/D1.5/24 HRS
Sea surface temperatures are only marginal for CHAN-HOM to survive; its cloud bands are also sheared to the east. Under such unfavorable circumstances CHAN-HOM will dissipate very soon.
現時的 T 號碼: T1.5/2.0/D1.5/24 HRS 海面溫度只能勉強令燦鴻生存，而偏強的垂直風切變亦令燦鴻的對流向東切離。在這惡劣的環境下，預料燦鴻將於短時間內消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
燦鴻於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
This is the final bulletin on CHAN-HOM.
這是本站對燦鴻的最後一次發佈。
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
CHAN-HOM made landfall at Luzon last night, weakening significantly while traversing northern Philippines. It is now in open waters again. At 14 HKT, CHAN-HOM was centred about 500 km (270 NM) NE of Manila.
A high pressure region developed north of CHAN-HOM. As the steering from the near-equatorial ridge diminishes and its direction of steering shifts, CHAN-HOM will gradually turn to a N to NNW track soon.
Current T-number: T3.0/4.0/D2.0/24 HRS
CHAN-HOM weakened as it travelled on land. It is expected to weaken gradually in hostile environments and will dissipate over water about three days later.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/4.0/D2.0/24 HRS 燦鴻於橫過陸地時大幅減弱。由於北緯 18 度以北的環境持續惡劣 (甚高垂直風切變和較低海水溫度)，預料燦鴻將於北上時逐漸減弱，並於約三天後在海上消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
燦鴻於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2009/05/09 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
The westerly airstream was stronger than expected and CHAN-HOM speeded across the South China Sea last night. It is expected that the steering airstream will diminish and cause CHAN-HOM to decelerate near the Philippines. It is currently expected that the absence of the dominant steering together with the westward extension of the subtropical ridge in the Pacific will induce CHAN-HOM to travel northwards with some westward component in the latter part of the forecast period.
Current T-number: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS
CHAN-HOM intensified in warm waters; however a weakening trend will be observed as CHAN-HOM is about to make landfall. The location that CHAN-HOM starts to turn north will affect the extent of the weakening. As hostile environment persists at latitudes north of 18N, CHAN-HOM is expected to weaken significantly during its anticipated recurvature to the north.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS 受到較暖海水影響，燦鴻增強為二級颱風。隨著燦鴻接近陸地，它即將開始減弱。減弱的程度亦取決於燦鴻路徑轉北的位置。另外，由於北緯 18 度以北的環境持續惡劣，預料燦鴻將於北上時明顯減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
燦鴻於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/05/08 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
CHAN-HOM continued to consolidate and turned NE to ENE in the meantime. At 14 HKT, CHAN-HOM was centred about 340 km (180 NM) SSE of Paracel Islands (Xisha).
The westerly airstream from a near-equatorial ridge is currrently steering CHAN-HOM to the east. This steering will diminish two days later, and CHAN-HOM will decelerate in the vicinity of the Philippines. It is currently expected that the absence of the dominant steering together with the westward extension of the subtropical ridge in the Pacific will induce CHAN-HOM to travel northwards in the latter part of the forecast period.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
Situated in the middle of the South China Sea, CHAN-HOM is receiving considerable amount of heat from the water and that the ambient environment is generally decent for intensification. A weakening trend will be observed as CHAN-HOM nears the Philippines. The location that CHAN-HOM starts to turn north will affect the extent of the weakening. As hostile environment persists at latitudes north of 18N, CHAN-HOM is expected to weaken significantly during its anticipated northward journey.
CHAN-HOM progressed northwards in the past 24 hours and has intensified into a severe tropical storm. At 14 HKT, CHAN-HOM was centred about 530 km (280 NM) S of Paracel Islands (Xisha).
The near Beibu Wan weakens and now the north to northeasterly airstream dominates. The airstream from a low-latitude ridge will contribute to its eastward movement before the storm reaches Philippines. This steering will diminish as CHAN-HOM weakens upon reaching the Philippines and a gradual poleward movement is expected.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
CHAN-HOM is at a location where sea temperatures are very favorable. It should be able to intensify in the next 72 hours. It will weaken as it nears Luzon.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS 燦鴻所在地方頗為溫暖，預料它可於未來 72 小時逐漸度增強。燦鴻將會於接近呂宋時減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
燦鴻於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/05/06 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
A ridge near Beibu Wan is providing steering that counteracts with the southwesterly flow southeast of CHAN-HOM which together contributed to its slow movement. CHAN-HOM is forecast to move NNE before the passage of a trough that will terminate the steering from the north and the system will turn eastwards near t+48.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS
CHAN-HOM is at a location where sea temperatures are very favorable. It should be able to intensify in the next 72 hours. It will weaken as it nears Luzon.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS 燦鴻所在地方頗為溫暖，預料它可於未來 72 小時逐漸度增強。燦鴻將會於登陸呂宋時大幅減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
燦鴻於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/05/05 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
The steering forces on 97W are very similar to that on KUJIRA. It is expected that the arrival of a mid-latitude trough will weaken the steering force to the north of the system; it will then be exposed to the force driven by the northwestern quadrant of the subtropical ridge southeast of it and will track NE to ENE.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
97W is at a location where sea temperatures are very favorable. It should be able to intensify in the next 72 hours at about climatological rate.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS 97W 所在地方頗為溫暖。預料它可於未來 72 小時以氣候平均值速度增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
97W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2009/05/04 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
