NANGKA continued to edge closer to Hong Kong. At 20 HKT, NANGKA was centred about 80 km (40 NM) ESE of Hong Kong.
浪卡繼續靠近香港。在 20 HKT，浪卡集結在香港東南偏東約 80 公里 (40 海里)。
Movement Analysis 路徑分析
NANGKA will travel NNW then NNE along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge..
預料浪卡將向西北偏北轉東北偏北移動，登陸廣東中部沿岸。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/06 HRS
NANGKA is expected to weaken rapidly as it reaches land.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/06 HRS 預料浪卡將於登陸後快速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Hong Kong may experience heavy rain with squalls tonight and tomorrow, and occasional strong winds will be observed. Wind direction will change from NE to SW in an anticlockwise manner.
香港將於今晚和明日受大雨影響並有狂風，今晚間中吹強風。風向將由東北以逆時針方向轉向西南。
Predicted Time of Closest Approach (CPA) 預測最接近香港時間
According to the forecast track, NANGKA will be closest to Hong Kong near 23 HKT today. Storm strength at CPA is estimated to be about 35 knots (65 km/h) in 1-min standard and 30 knots (55 km/h) in 10-min standard.
NANGKA travelled with more westward component last night, and hence its threat to Hong Kong has increased. At 14 HKT, NANGKA was centred about 270 km (150 NM) SE of Hong Kong.
The configuration of the subtropical ridge remains almost the same as that of last night. NANGKA will travel NNW towards Guangdong coast in the next 24 hours.
副熱帶高壓脊的配置跟昨夜相若，預料浪卡將繼續向西北偏北移動，趨向廣東沿岸。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18 HRS
NANGKA's southern rainbands have tightened, but its low-level circulation centre remains exposed. It is expected to maintain strength before landfall and will dissipate inland between t+24 and t+36.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18 HRS 浪卡南部的環流稍為整固，但低層環流仍然外露並向西北偏北移動。預料浪卡將維持強度直至登陸，並於 24 至 36 小時後於內陸消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Hong Kong may experience heavy rain starting from tonight, and winds offshore will strengthen appreciably tonight when NANGKA comes closer.
香港將於今晚開始受大雨影響，而離岸風勢亦會於今晚浪卡靠近時明顯增強。
Predicted Time of Closest Approach (CPA) 預測最接近香港時間
According to the forecast track, NANGKA will be closest to Hong Kong near 02 HKT tomorrow. Storm strength at CPA is estimated to be about 40 knots (75 km/h) in 1-min standard and 35 knots (65 km/h) in 10-min standard.
NANGKA moved NNW quickly in the past 6 hours, and became so disorganized that the centre cannot be found with certainty in IR imageries. At 20 HKT, NANGKA was centred about 640 km (340 NM) SSE of Hong Kong.
The subtropical ridge seems to have extended westward slightly. NANGKA is expected to travel NNW along the western periphery of the ridge towards coastal Guangdong at a rather high speed.
副熱帶高壓脊似乎稍為西伸，預料浪卡將繼續向西北偏北高速移動，趨向廣東沿岸。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS
Wind shear seems to have separated the low-level circulating centre (LLCC) and the higher cloud bands of the storm. The LLCC was totally exposed and drifted further NNW this afternoon, and the centre is now virtually not discernible without the help of visible imagery. Due to its fast speed it seems unlikely for NANGKA to gain strength, and unless it consolidates dramatically tonight it will remain as a weak to moderate tropical storm until landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS 垂直風切變似乎將低層環流中心和較高層的雲帶分開。浪卡的低層環流中心於今午完全外露並向西北偏北移動，而主要雲帶則保持偏西北的路徑；在紅外線雲圖下幾乎沒有可能準確判斷浪卡的中心。由於浪卡繼續快速移動，如它不能快速重整對流，那很大可能它將不能於登陸前增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Rainbands associated with NANGKA are likely to affect Hong Kong on Saturday.
浪卡的雨帶或會於星期六影響香港。
Next Update 下次更新
17 HKT, 2009/06/26 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
High 高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
High 高
Medium 中等
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
NANGKA emerged from the Philippines last night and is now travelling in the South China Sea. At 14 HKT, NANGKA was centred about 810 km (440 NM) SSE of Hong Kong.
The subtropical ridge is becoming N-S oriented and its western edge is near 120E. NANGKA is expected to travel NNW towards coastal Guangdong at a rather high speed.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS
Increase in moisture has led to the expansion in NANGKA's coverage, and cloud bands seem to be attempting to wrap around the centre. Vertical wind shear has moderated slightly. WIth a moderately warm ocean, NANGKA should be able to intensify slightly before making landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS 水氣增加令浪卡覆蓋範圍擴大；雲帶也有明顯繞著中心旋轉之勢。垂直風切變稍為緩和，而海水溫度適中。預料浪卡能於登陸前稍為增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
According to the present track, very hot and hazy weather may affect Hong Kong on Friday. Rainbands associated with NANGKA are likely to affect Hong Kong on Saturday.
根據現時預測路徑，浪卡將於星期五為本港帶來炎熱和有煙霞的天氣，而浪卡的雨帶或會於星期六影響香港。
Next Update 下次更新
00 HKT, 2009/06/26 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
High 高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
High 高
Medium 中等
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
Low 低
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
NANGKA travelled through the islands of central Philippines, and is now approaching Mindoro. At 14 HKT, NANGKA was centred about 190 km (100 NM) SSE of Manila.
A trough has weakened the ridge north of NANGKA and a weakness has been created. NANGKA will emerge from the Philippines tonight and should start a northwesterly motion along the southwestern quadrant of the ridge. The storm is expected to recurve after reaching 22N which is the latitude the ridge axis is situated at.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
NANGKA failed to strengthen itself in the middle Philippines, possibly because of heightened shear. It should regain moisture after emerging from the island nation, but wind shear is very unfavorable and has persisted at high levels. We expect that NANGKA can only intensify slightly while travelling in the South China Sea.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS 浪卡於經過菲律賓中部時未能增強。預料浪卡今晚進入洋面後水氣供應會好轉，但由於該區垂直風切變頗高，浪卡應不能在南中國海大幅增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
According to the present track, very hot and hazy weather may affect Hong Kong on Friday and Saturday.
根據現時預測路徑，浪卡將於星期五至六為本港帶來炎熱和有煙霞的天氣。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/06/25 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
04W travels westward rapidly and has intensified into a tropical storm, which was named NANGKA by the JMA. At 14 HKT, NANGKA was centred about 620 km (330 NM) SE of Manila.
NANGKA has decelerated in the past 12 hours. The ridge above NANGKA has extended westward a bit, so the current forecast track is translated westward slightly. A series of mid-latitude troughs might cause the subtropical ridge to weaken and allow a gradual poleward turn near western Philippines. However the effect of the troughs are far from certain and there is a lot of uncertainty as to where the storm will actually recurve.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/18 HRS
NANGKA will intensify while it travels across the (very warm) islands in the middle of the Philippines, with Luzon posing some obstacles as for its strength. NANGKA will intensify again once it enters open waters.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/18 HRS 浪卡將於橫過菲律賓島嶼時有所增強，但呂宋島仍然是增強的阻礙。浪卡將有望於重回洋面時解繼續增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
浪卡於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/06/24 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Tropical disturbance 92W rapidly developed today and intensified into a tropical depression (04W) this evening. At 20 HKT, 04W was centred about 970 km (530 NM) ESE of Manila.
04W will travel at a high speed in the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge and reach the Philippines in 24 hours. In this bulletin the storm is forecast to pick up latitude near Luzon as it reaches the edge of the ridge. However an extension of the ridge is seen in the latest upper-level weather chart (yet numerical models are still predicting a pretty weak ridge near t+72) and this may mean that westward adjustment of the track could be needed in later bulletins.
Current T-number: T1.5/1.5/INT OBS
Shear is light and seas are warm in 04W's vicinity. It is forecast that 04W can intensify at about climatological rate before reaching the Philippines. Intensification will become sluggish as it travels through the Philippine terrain.
現時的 T 號碼: T1.5/1.5/INT OBS 04W 附近垂直風切頗弱，而海水溫度適中，預料 04W 可在登陸菲律賓前以氣候值平均速度增強。稍後由於受到地形影響，增強速度會放緩。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
04W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/06/23 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈風或暴風 #8
G/S Increasing 烈風或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
