SOUDELOR traversed Qiongzhou Strait this morning. At 14 HKT, SOUDELOR was centred about 310 km (170 NM) E of Hanoi. All signals were lowered at 05:20 HKT today.
SOUDELOR moved west in the past 6 hours and is now receding from us. At 20 HKT, SOUDELOR was centred about 260 km (140 NM) SSW of Hong Kong. The Observatory replaced the #3 Strong Wind Signal with the #1 Standby Signal at 21:15 HKT today.
SOUDELOR will travel W to WNW and will possibly enter the Gulf of Tonkin tomorrow.
預料蘇迪羅將向西或西北偏西移動，於明天進入北部灣。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/06 HRS
SOUDELOR intensified slightly and the low level circulation centre is exposed less now. However due to its proximity to land, intensification is not expected.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/06 HRS 蘇迪羅的低層環流中心外露情況有所改善，但由於它已經非常接近陸地，預料蘇迪羅將不會增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
SOUDELOR has passed its closest point of approach to Hong Kong. East to southeasterly winds will subside in the next 12 hours.
蘇迪羅於今午最接近香港。預料香港普遍地區將吹東至東南風，風勢將於未來 12 小時逐漸減弱。
Next Update 下次更新
17 HKT, 2009/07/12 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)
High 高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
05W accelerated in the South China Sea and intensified slightly into a tropical storm. The JMA named it SOUDELOR at 14 HKT. At 14 HKT, SOUDELOR was centred about 230 km (130 NM) S of Hong Kong. The Observatory issued the Strong Wind Signal at 13:25 HKT today.
The ridge north of SOUDELOR has weakened, but the storm continues to travel at a high speed. A persistent WNW track is expected and landfall in western Guangdong will occur between t+12 and t+24.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18 HRS
Wind shear has increased in South China Sea, and SOUDELOR's fast speed sufficiently shortens its possible intensification period. Now the storm is not expected to intensify greatly and will make landfall soon as a minimal tropical storm.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18 HRS 南海的垂直風切變增強，而由於蘇迪羅快速移動，可作增強的時間大幅減低。預料蘇迪羅將不會於登陸前大幅增強，並以熱帶風暴強度下限登陸。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Quite a number of areas in Hong Kong are blowing strong easterly winds now. As the storm continues to edge closer, winds will strengthen and will shift to southeast later tonight as SOUDELOR passes its closest point of approach. The closest point of approach is expected to be around 200 - 220 km (105 - 120 NM) and will occur in a few hours' time.
05W entered South China Sea but intensification is minimal. At 20 HKT, 05W was centred about 620 km (330 NM) SE of Hong Kong. The Observatory issued the third Standby Signal of the year at 16:45 HKT today.
A broad extension of the subtropical ridge is clearly seen north of 05W, but has weakened a little in the past 12 hours. Under its influence, the storm will track W to WNW in northern South China Sea. Northward component should increase as it makes its way to the edge of the ridge. Landfall is expected in 72 hours' time in the western coast of Guangdong. There could be a chance of northward shift in track forecast should the ridge continue to weaken.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/06 HRS
Convections of 05W are confined to the western and southern peripheries. However, 05W is expected to travel in a favourable environment in the South China Sea, with sufficient sea surface temperature and rather low shear.The storm should intensify at about climatological rate. Intensification will cease as 05W nears land.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/06 HRS 05W 的對流未能於東面整固，但由於現在南海的海水溫度頗高而垂直風切變亦於較低水平，預料 05W 將能於登陸前以氣候平均值速度增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Winds will strengthen from the east towards the weekend as 05W gets closer.
預料 05W 將於週末靠近本港，本地風勢 (主要為偏東風) 將於屆時增強。
Next Update 下次更新
16 HKT, 2009/07/11 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)
Low 低
Medium 中等
High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Medium 中等
High 高
High 高
Medium 中等
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Tropical disturbance 99W intensified into the fifth numbered tropical depression this morning. At 14 HKT, 05W was centred about 710 km (390 NM) ESE of Hong Kong.
A broad extension of the subtropical ridge is clearly seen north of 05W. Under its influence, the storm will track W to WNW in northern South China Sea. Northward component should increase as it makes its way to the edge of the ridge. Landfall is expected in 72 hours' time in the western coast of Guangdong.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
05W will travel in a favourable environment in the South China Sea, with sufficient sea surface temperature and rather low shear. As 05W and its convections leave Luzon, it is expected to intensify at about climatological rate. Intensification will cease as 05W nears land.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS 現在南海的海水溫度頗高，垂直風切變亦於較低水平。隨著 05W 移離呂宋，預料它將能於登陸前以氣候平均值速度增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Affected by 05W's subsidence, Hong Kong will experience hot weather in the rest of the day. Winds will strengthen from the east towards the weekend as 05W gets closer.
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
