MOLAVE continues to weaken. At 14 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 320 km (170 NM) WNW of Hong Kong.
莫拉菲繼續減弱。在 14 HKT,莫拉菲集結在香港西北偏西約 320 公里 (170 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.
MOLAVE made landfall at Dapeng Peninsula at about 00:50 today. It has travelled further inland and weakened rapidly since then. At 11 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 200 km (110 NM) WNW of Hong Kong. The Observatory has lifted all signals at 13:15 HKT.
The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.
The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.
The western extension of the subtropical ridge has lifted northwards, but steering remains primarily to the W/WNW. MOLAVE is expected to move W to WNW in the next 24 hours over Guangdong landmass.
Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06 HRS
Rapid weakening will follow after landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06 HRS
預料莫拉菲將於登陸後急速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Rain and winds reaching storm force or above will affect HK in the coming hours. Wind direction is likely to change in a counterclockwise manner from northwest to southwest in the early hours of tomorrow. If MOLAVE passes sufficiently close to HK, cyclonic winds may be observed. Low-lying areas may experience flooding.
MOLAVE is expected to be closest to Hong Kong at about 3 am to 6 am on Sunday.
MOLAVE continues to edge closer to the territory. At 23 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 100 km (50 NM) E of Hong Kong.
莫拉菲繼續移近香港。在 23 HKT,莫拉菲集結在香港以東約 100 公里 (50 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.
The western extension of the subtropical ridge has lifted northwards, but steering remains primarily to the W/WNW. MOLAVE is expected to move W to WNW in the next 24 hours towards central Guangdong coast.
Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06 HRS
MOLAVE's eye appears round and well-defined on RADAR, and it has slightly strengthened in the past 12 hours. Rapid weakening will follow once landfall is encountered.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06 HRS
莫拉菲的風眼於雷達圖上清晰可見,圓渾且組織良好;它於過去 12 小時稍為增強。預料莫拉菲將於登陸後急速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
The weather will deteriorate significantly near in the coming hours, with winds reaching gale force or above and rain intensifying. Wind direction is likely to change in a counterclockwise manner from northwest to southwest in the early hours of tomorrow. If MOLAVE passes sufficiently close to HK, cyclonic winds may be observed.
MOLAVE is expected to be closest to Hong Kong at about 3 am to 4 am on Sunday.
MOLAVE continues to edge closer to the territory. At 17 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 270 km (140 NM) E of Hong Kong. The Observatory issued the #3 Strong Wind Signal at 14:15 HKT.
The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.
The western extension of the subtropical ridge has lifted northwards, but steering remains primarily to the W/WNW. MOLAVE is expected to move W to WNW in the next 24 hours towards central Guangdong coast.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D0.0/15 HRS
Sufficient sea surface temperatures, good outflow and moderate shear will allow MOLAVE to maintain strength until landfall. Rapid weakening will follow once landfall is encountered.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D0.0/15 HRS
受較高海水溫度,良好輻散和中等的垂直風切變影響,預料莫拉菲將可維持強度直至登陸。登陸後莫拉菲將急速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Very hot weather was encountered in most parts of HK early today. The weather will deteriorate significantly tonight, with winds reaching gale force or above and rain intensifying. Wind change pattern is still uncertain, but a landfall to the east of HK is becoming slightly more favourable. If MOLAVE passes sufficiently close to HK, cyclonic winds may be observed.
MOLAVE moved W to WNW in the past 12 hours, intensifying slightly in the meantime. At 11 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 380 km (200 NM) ESE of Hong Kong.
The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.
Affected by the subtropical ridge north of the system, MOLAVE is expected to move W to WNW in the next 48 hours towards central Guangdong coast. Track speed is expected to remain fast at about 22 km/h until landfall as strong steering exists.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D0.0/15 HRS
Sufficient sea surface temperatures, good outflow and moderate shear will allow MOLAVE to maintain strength until landfall. Rapid weakening will follow once landfall is encountered.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D0.0/15 HRS
受較高海水溫度,良好輻散和中等的垂直風切變影響,預料莫拉菲將可維持強度直至登陸。登陸後莫拉菲將急速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
According to the present forecast track, hot and hazy weather in Hong Kong is expected early today. The weather will deteriorate significantly tonight, with winds becoming much stronger and rain intensifying. Wind change pattern is still uncertain as chances for landfalling east and west of HK are about equal. If MOLAVE passes sufficiently close to HK, cyclonic winds may be observed.
Luzon Strait and NE part of South China Sea 呂宋海峽與南海東北部
Forecast Track 預測路徑圖
Forecast Positions 預測位置資料
Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Latitude
緯度
Longitude
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Avg. Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0
2009/07/17 20:00
20.7°N
121.3°E
WNW (301°) 22 km/h
65 kt (120 km/h)
ESE 758 km
t+12
2009/07/18 08:00
21.9°N
119.1°E
WNW (285°) 22 km/h
70 kt (130 km/h)
E 509 km
t+24
2009/07/18 20:00
22.5°N
116.6°E
WNW (283°) 22 km/h
65 kt (120 km/h)
E 251 km
t+36
2009/07/19 08:00
23.0°N
114.1°E
WNW (282°) 19 km/h
50 kt (93 km/h)
N 78 km
t+48
2009/07/19 20:00
23.4°N
111.9°E
WNW (285°) 18 km/h
25 kt (46 km/h)
WNW 263 km
t+72
2009/07/20 20:00
24.4°N
107.7°E
N/A
15 kt (28 km/h)
WNW 700 km
Overview 總覽
Other images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
MOLAVE developed an eye visible on satellite imagery, and in 1-minute standard MOLAVE is deemed to have intensified into a typhoon. At 20 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 760 km (410 NM) ESE of Hong Kong.
The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.
MOLAVE is seen to move NW in the past 6 hours, tracking to the northern part of the Luzon Strait. It is expected that the subtropical ridge will allow MOLAVE to turn WNW soon. Track speed is expected to remain fast at about 22 km/h until landfall as strong steering exists.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/06 HRS
A banding eye has developed, but land effect is distorting the structure in its vicinity somewhat. Wind shear in the South China Sea remains low. It is expected that good divergence and favourable sea temperatures will allow MOLAVE to intensify slightly in the next 12 hours before it starts to weaken as drier air and higher shear set in.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/06 HRS
莫拉菲發展出雲捲風眼,但由於地形影響其形狀有待改善。南海的垂直風切變亦維持在偏低水平。由於輻散和海溫仍佳,預料莫拉菲將可於未來 12 小時增強;稍後由於受到較強垂直風切變和較乾空氣影響而開始減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
According to the present forecast track, hot and hazy weather in Hong Kong is expected today and early tomorrow. Northerly winds should be observed starting later tomorrow; the weather will deteriorate by then. Exact wind shift sequence and strength are still highly dependent on where MOLAVE starts its WNW turn, but by now it is likely that strong force winds will affect the territory on Sunday.
07W intensified further into a severe tropical storm, and was named MOLAVE by the JMA. At 14 HKT, MOLAVE was centred about 920 km (500 NM) ESE of Hong Kong.
The name MOLAVE was contributed by the Philippines, which is a popular hard wood used in furniture. MOLAVE replaced the name IMBUDO at the same position due to the latter cyclone's destructive power and was first used as a name for tropical cyclones.
The subtropical ridge has weakened slightly, but is still covering southeastern China and parts of Taiwan.. It is expected that the ridge will allow MOLAVE to turn WNW soon. Track speed is expected to remain fast at about 22 km/h as strong steering exists.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS
Convective clouds continue to burst around the centre, and from visible imagery MOLAVE is developing a banding eye. Wind shear has increased slightly in the South China Sea. It is expected that good divergence and favourable sea temperatures will allow MOLAVE to intensify further, possibly maturing as a typhoon, before it starts to weaken as land effect and higher shear set in.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS
莫拉菲附近對流爆發持續,從可見光衛星雲圖可見該系統正嘗試建立雲捲風眼。南海的垂直風切變於過去 24 小時稍為增強。由於輻散和海溫仍佳,預料莫拉菲將可繼續增強,或可成為一股颱風;稍後由於受到較強垂直風切變和接近陸地影響而開始減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
According to the present forecast track, hot and hazy weather in Hong Kong is expected today and early tomorrow. Northerly winds should be observed starting later tomorrow; the weather will deteriorate by then. Exact wind shift sequence and strength are still highly dependent on where MOLAVE starts its WNW turn, but by now it is quite likely that strong force winds will affect the territory on Sunday.
The subtropical ridge is firmly established in southeastern China. It is expected that the ridge will allow 07W to turn WNW after reaching higher latitudes due to the ridge's dominance there.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18 HRS
Wind shear has increased to the south of 07W. The storm tried to wrap the circulation cloud bands into its centre but most attempts ended in failure. However, it seems that 07W is now able to slowly wrap its cloud bands in the southeastern quadrant. Sea temperatures and divergence remain good, but wind shear may increase later as 07W enters the South China Sea. Gradual strengthening is thus expected until t+48 when wind shear and proximity to land become inhibiting factors then.
According to the present forecast track, hot and hazy weather in Hong Kong is expected in the next two days, and northerly squalls and rain might affect Hong Kong in the first half of the coming Sunday.
The subtropical ridge is seen north and east of 07W, which contributes to its present NW movement. It is expected that the ridge will strengthen further and 07W will turn to a WNW direction after reaching higher latitudes due to the ridge's dominance there.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
Favourable divergence, light wind shear and good sea surface temperatures will cause 07W to strengthen at about climatological rate in the next 48 hours. Proximity to land and the expected higher shear when 07W enters South China Sea might cause intensification to cease later, but this is effect is rather uncertain at this moment.
According to the present forecast track, hot and hazy weather in Hong Kong is expected two days later, and northerly winds might be observed beyond t+60.
按照目前預測路徑,炎熱和有煙霞的天氣將於兩日後影響香港;60 小時後香港可能吹偏北風。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/07/16 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。