PARMA has made landfall in northern Vietnam. At 02 HKT, PARMA was centred about 75 km (40 NM) SSE of Hanoi.
芭瑪已於越南北部登陸。在 02 HKT，芭瑪集結在河內東南偏南約 75 公里 (40 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
PARMA weakens as it nears northern Vietnam. At 14 HKT, PARMA was centred about 140 km (75 NM) SE of Hanoi.
芭瑪稍為減弱。在 14 HKT，芭瑪集結在河內東南約 140 公里 (75 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24 HRS
Due to PARMA's proximity to land, its structure worsened and has weakened into a severe tropical storm. PARMA will weaken rapidly after making landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24 HRS
由於接近陸地，芭瑪的結構轉差並減弱為強烈熱帶風暴。預料芭瑪將於登陸越南後急速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
芭瑪於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/15 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
PARMA will travel W to WNW in the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
預料芭瑪將沿副高南部向西至西北偏西移動。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS
PARMA has strengthened in the last 24 hours, revealing an eye in both visible and IR imageries. Bach Long Vi in the Gulf of Tonkin recorded sustained winds of 133 km/h (72 knots) at 14 HKT which indicates that PARMA has already intensified into a typhoon. PARMA is expected to maintain its current strength before landfall, and weaken rapidly afterwards.
PARMA made landfall at Hainan Island earlier today. At 14 HKT, PARMA was centred about 540 km (290 NM) SW of Hong Kong.
芭瑪已於海南島登陸。在 14 HKT，芭瑪集結在香港西南約 540 公里 (290 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
The ridge strengthened east of PARMA, which led to the WNW to NW track in the past 24 hours. PARMA is expected to track W to WNW in the next 24 hours in the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
PARMA is expected to weaken on land. Rapid weakening follows after PARMA makes landfall in Vietnam.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
預料芭瑪將於海南島上減弱，繼而於登陸越南後急速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Swells may be observed in offshore waters. Coupled with the northeast monsoon, it will be windy today and tomorrow.
離岸海域會有暗湧。受到東北季候風的共同影響，今明兩日風勢較大。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/13 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
PARMA has passed its point of closest approach to Hong Kong. As the Observatory has issued the Strong Monsoon Signal, it is not likely that a transition to tropical cyclone signal is to be made.
PARMA has intensified slightly. At 14 HKT, PARMA was centred about 520 km (280 NM) S of Hong Kong.
芭瑪稍為增強。在 14 HKT，芭瑪集結在香港以南約 520 公里 (280 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
A ridge has developed north of PARMA, and therefore a persistent westward track is expected in the next 72 hours with the possibility of dipping southward later.
高壓脊已於芭瑪北面建立，預料芭瑪向持續向偏西移動，後期或會出現向南分量。
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS
Convections wrap into the centre again. Slight intensification may be possible before reaching Hainan. It will weaken rapidly after making landfall in Vietnam.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS
芭瑪的對流再度捲入中心。預料芭瑪將於靠近海南前稍為增強或維持強度，並於登陸越南後急速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Swells may be observed in offshore waters. Coupled with the northeast monsoon, it will be windy today and in the next two days.
離岸海域會有暗湧。受到東北季候風的共同影響，今日和未來兩日風勢較大。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/12 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
PARMA has reached its point of closest approach to Hong Kong. As the Observatory has issued the Strong Monsoon Signal, it is not likely that a transition to tropical cyclone signal is to be made.
PARMA drifted northwestward today. At 14 HKT, PARMA was centred about 630 km (340 NM) SE of Hong Kong.
芭瑪今日向西北方向移動。在 14 HKT，芭瑪集結在香港東南約 630 公里 (340 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
The ridge east of PARMA extended and has led to more northward component than predicted. However, as the high pressure in southwestern China is expected to develop, PARMA will resume a more westward track later.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24 HRS
PARMA's low level circulation centre is fully exposed as seen in the visible imageries. At that region, sea temperatures and shear are of moderate levels. PARMA is not expected to pick up strength significantly in the rest of the forecast period.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24 HRS
由可見光所見，芭瑪的低層環流中心完全外露，而該區的海溫和垂直風切變均在中等水平。預料芭瑪將不會於預測期內大幅增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Swells may be observed in offshore waters. Coupled with the northeast monsoon, it will be windy on Sunday and early next week.
離岸海域會有暗湧。受到東北季候風的共同影響，星期日和下週初風勢較大。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/11 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Medium 中等
High 高
High 高
High 高
Low 低
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
After staying near Luzon for a few days, PARMA entered the South China Sea again this morning. At 20 HKT, PARMA was centred about 750 km (410 NM) SE of Hong Kong.
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
A ridge is expected to build north of PARMA, leading to a westward track. Southward component may be observed later as PARMA is steered by the anticyclone in southwestern China.
PARMA continued to linger over northern Luzon. At 20 HKT, PARMA was centred about 300 km (160 NM) N of Manila.
芭瑪繼續於呂宋北部徘徊。在 20 HKT，芭瑪集結在馬尼拉以北約 300 公里 (160 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
The subtropical ridge is expected to strengthen again soon. This will provide westward steering to PARMA. Since net steering remains weak in the next 24 hours, PARMA is expected to move slowly in the short term.
PARMA made landfall at the Philippines again and weakened into a tropical storm today. At 20 HKT, PARMA was centred about 400 km (220 NM) NNE of Manila.
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
The subtropical ridge is expected to strengthen again after typhoon MELOR is absorbed into the westerlies. This will provide westward steering to PARMA. Since net steering remains weak in the next 48 hours, PARMA is expected to linger over northern Luzon in the short term.
Current T-number: T2.5/3.0/W1.5/30 HRS
PARMA is expected to weaken further as it continues to stay inland. Intensification will only be possible after PARMA leaves Philippines.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/3.0/W1.5/30 HRS
由於芭瑪繼續於陸地上移動，預料它將會繼續減弱；只有當芭瑪離開菲律賓後它才有機會增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Swells may be observed in offshore waters.
離岸海域可能會有暗湧。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2009/10/08 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
PARMA turned south while intensifying back into a typhoon (in 1-minute average standard). At 14 HKT, PARMA was centred about 490 km (260 NM) N of Manila.
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
After being almost stationary yesterday, PARMA picked up speed in the southeastern direction, possibly interacting with typhoon MELOR which is currently travelling NNW in seas east of Taiwan. PARMA is expected to make landfall at northern Luzon again tonight, and PARMA will decelerate as interaction diminishes. As MELOR moves further north, the subtropical ridge will extend which will steer PARMA to the west and back into the South China Sea.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
As PARMA started to move and the monsoon eased, it intensified into a typhoon today. PARMA is expected to weaken into a tropical storm after landfall. It may re-intensify when it leaves the Philippines.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
隨著芭瑪開始移動且季候風逐漸緩和，芭瑪今天增強為颱風。預料芭瑪登陸後將逐漸減弱為一熱帶風暴，並可望於離開菲律賓後再度增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Subsidence associated with PARMA will continue to bring haze to Hong Kong in the next few days. There may be swells in offshore waters.
芭瑪的外圍下沉氣流將於未來數天繼續為香港帶來煙霞，而離岸海域或會有暗湧。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2009/10/07 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
PARMA has been moving slowly in the past 24 hours, and has weakened into a severe tropical storm. At 14 HKT, PARMA was centred about 600 km (330 NM) ESE of Hong Kong.
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
The subtropical ridge north of PARMA has broken into two halves and PARMA is now situated in a pressure col which will result in slow motion. As super typhoon MELOR intensifies and moves westward, there is a chance of interaction between the two cyclones and should further inhibit PARMA's poleward movement.
It is predicted that the western ridge will become the dominant steering force which will steer PARMA southwestward into the South China Sea later.
Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS
Intrusion of dry air continued to weaken the storm. PARMA may intensify as it moves south provided that it is not too close to Luzon. However persistent slow motion will induce upwelling of cooler water and thus intensification, if any, should be minimal. PARMA is expected to remain as a severe tropical storm as it moves further south.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS
芭瑪繼續受到乾燥空氣入侵，並稍為減弱。預料芭瑪南移後如不太接近陸地將有機會稍為增強，但其緩慢移動路徑將令深層較冷海水上翻，抑制其增強幅度。預測芭瑪將於較後維持強烈熱帶風暴強度。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Subsidence associated with PARMA will continue to bring haze to Hong Kong in the next few days. There may be swells in offshore waters.
芭瑪的外圍下沉氣流將於未來數天繼續為香港帶來煙霞，而離岸海域將會有暗湧。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/06 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
The subtropical ridge north of PARMA has weakened but is still maintaining some linkage between the eastern and western centres. PARMA is now situated in a pressure col which will make PARMA move very slowly. As super typhoon MELOR intensifies and moves westward, there is a chance of interaction between the two cyclones and should further inhibit PARMA's poleward movement.
The forecast philosophy has changed significantly and it is now predicted that the western ridge will become the dominant steering force which will steer PARMA southwestward into the South China Sea later.
Current T-number: T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24 HRS
PARMA will intensify slightly as it moves away from landmasses. However PARMA's slow movement will induce upwelling of cold water that will inhibit intensification. PARMA will then maintain as a minimal typhoon and may weaken slightly. The dry northeast monsoon currently affecting South China may also introduce dry air to PARMA's circulation which is also limiting its strength.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24 HRS
芭瑪離開陸地後會稍為增強，但其緩慢移動路徑將令深層較冷海水上翻，抑制其增強幅度。芭瑪將會於這情況下維持強度或稍稍減弱。現時影響南中國的乾燥東北季候風亦會為芭瑪引進乾燥氣流，使其更難增強。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Subsidence associated with PARMA will continue to bring haze to Hong Kong in the next few days. There may be swells in offshore waters.
芭瑪的外圍下沉氣流將於未來數天繼續為香港帶來煙霞，而離岸海域將會有暗湧。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/05 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Medium 中等
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Low 低
Low 低
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
PARMA has made landfall over northern Luzon. At 14 HKT, PARMA was centred about 380 km (200 NM) NNE of Manila.
芭瑪於呂宋北部登陸。在 14 HKT，芭瑪集結在馬尼拉東北偏北約 380 公里 (200 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
The subtropical ridge north of PARMA continued to show signs of weakening and a weakness is about to be developed. PARMA will then be situated in a pressure col which will retard its movement significantly. It is now forecast that the weakness will be deepened by another trough which will allow a recurvature. There is also the possiblility of interactions with typhoon MELOR which has picked up some speed over the last 12 hours, although the effect is believed to be small.
More and more numerical models now converge to the recurving scenario, but the possibility that PARMA will follow the western ridge and enter the South China Sea cannot be ruled out at this moment.
Current T-number: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/18 HRS
PARMA will weaken as it travels on land. The intensity that PARMA will lose depends very much on the duration that PARMA stays in the vicinity of Luzon.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/18 HRS
芭瑪登陸後應會減弱，但幅度則取決於芭瑪於陸上和岸邊逗留的時間。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Subsidence associated with PARMA may bring hazy weather to Hong Kong in the next few days.
芭瑪的外圍下沉氣流或會於未來數天為香港帶來煙霞。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/04 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
PARMA weakened into a category 3 typhoon. At 20 HKT, PARMA was centred about 420 km (230 NM) ENE of Manila.
芭瑪減弱為三級颱風。在 20 HKT，芭瑪集結在馬尼拉東北偏東約 420 公里 (230 海里)。
TC Naming 氣旋命名
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
The Pacific subtropical ridge north of PARMA has weakened, and the southern extension of the ridge is providing northward component in PARMA's track. The ridge is expected to be eroded by an arriving mid-latitude trough which will make PARMA situated within a pressure col, and will lead to a rapid deceleration. As Typhoon MELOR travels west, there may be interactions between the cyclones and erratic paths may result for PARMA which has a small resultant steering force. However as MELOR has been moving quite slowly whether or not such interactions would eventually be seen remains largely uncertain.
Numerical models are also divergent on the scenario, but quite a number of models have switched to suggest a recurvature. Therefore, the track forecast in this bulletin has been shifted east to reflect the decreased chance of PARMA entering the South China Sea. As in the last bulletin, confidence on track forecast is low beyond t+24.
Current T-number: T5.0/5.5/W1.5/30 HRS
PARMA has weakened signficantly due to drier air intrusion and higher vertical wind shear. It is expected that PARMA will continue to weaken as it nears land. The intensity that PARMA will lose depends very much on the duration that PARMA stays in the vicinity of Luzon. If PARMA lands on Luzon and stays there, rapid weakening may result.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.5/W1.5/30 HRS
由於乾空氣的入侵和較高的垂直風切變，芭瑪於過去 24 小時減弱幅度較大芭瑪。預料芭瑪將於靠近呂宋時繼續減弱。如果芭瑪於呂宋附近海域逗留時間較長，甚至登陸呂宋並於陸上逗留，芭瑪將可能快速減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Subsidence associated with PARMA may bring hazy weather to Hong Kong near t+72.
芭瑪的外圍下沉氣流或會於 72 小時後為香港帶來煙霞。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/03 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
The Pacific subtropical ridge north of PARMA is very strong at this moment and is steering PARMA to WNW quickly. This trend is expected to continue in the next 24 hours, after which the ridge will start to be eroded by a mid-latitude trough so that more northward component is expected. Numerical forecasts call for very diverse scenarios after t+48, with some recurving the system to the north/northeast while both ECMWF and NGP predict that PARMA will enter the South China Sea via the northern tip of Luzon. After t+96, PARMA's track might be influenced by the interaction between typhoon MELOR and itself. Since the atmospheric environment is very complicated at extended taus, the confidence of this bulletin is somewhat lower. If Fujiwhara effect does take place, some southward track should be observed for PARMA.
Current T-number: T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24 HRS
PARMA developed a pinhole eye overnight, and the temperature difference between the eye and top layer clouds in the eyewall is increasing. PARMA is expected to track through warm seas with low to moderate shear in the next 24 hours and intensification is therefore still expected. As PARMA edges closer to Luzon, it will be affected by the landmass and might exhibit some decrease in intensity. PARMA may weaken a lot if it makes landfall in the Philippines
現時的 T 號碼: T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24 HRS
芭瑪建立出針孔型風眼，風眼中心跟眼牆雲頂溫度的差距逐漸擴大。預料芭瑪將於未來 24 小時在溫暖的洋面移動，垂直風切變為微弱至中等，因此芭瑪將繼續增強。隨著芭瑪靠近呂宋，預測其強度將會於 48 小時後降低。如果芭瑪登陸菲律賓，它可能會大幅減弱。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Subsidence associated with PARMA may bring hazy weather to Hong Kong near t+72.
芭瑪的外圍下沉氣流或會於 72 小時後為香港帶來煙霞。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2009/10/02 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) "Signal" represents having issued that signal or above. "信號" 指該信號或更高。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的概率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
PARMA is expected to move WNW to NW towards the southern edge of the broad subtropical ridge in western Pacific. As it moves closer poleward component is expected to diminish temporarily. The ridge is then expected to be eroded by an arriving mid-latitude trough which will cause PARMA to travel NW again.
Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS
PARMA intensified rather rapidly and developed an eye early today. Under favourable conditions, PARMA will continue to intensify into an intense cyclone.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS
芭瑪今天急速增強，並建立出一風眼。在大致良好的環境中，預料芭瑪將繼續增強至一猛烈颱風。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
芭瑪於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/10/01 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
PARMA is the 91st name in the tropical cyclone name list. This name was contributed by Macau, which is a favorite Macanese food found in Portuguese restaurants there. This name was last used in 2003.
PARMA's past track was significantly to the west and south of that predicted. However a WNW movement turning to NW is still expected as the ridge gradually weakens in the next 5 days. However, forecast confidence is somewhat lower due to some other systems developing to the east of PARMA which may interact with it.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS
Convections are wrapping into the centre, but is clearly lacking in the northeastern quadrant. Under favourable conditions, PARMA should intensify gradually into a typhoon in the next three days.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS 芭瑪的對流開始捲入中心，但東北方的對流仍然缺乏。在大致良好的環境中，預料芭瑪將於三天內增強為一股颱風。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
芭瑪於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
19 HKT, 2009/09/30 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images 其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
19W should travel in the southern turning to southwestern periphery of the steering subtropical ridge to its north. Thus a WNW movement is expected in the next 72 hours. Interactions with the tropical depression 18W east of it may also affect its movement, the occurrence of which will be closely monitored.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
19W's low-level circulation centre is partially exposed. However, in an area with high sea temperatures and moderate shear, 19W is expected to intensify at about climatological rate in the next 72 hours.
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
