Influenced by a high pressure near Heilongjiang MEARI turned northwest today. The storm's speed was also very irregular during the past 24 hours, reaching 50 km/h last night but decreased to an average of less than 10 km/h in the past 6 hours. As the high pressure weakens, MEARI is expected to track NNE to NE along the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, crossing Korea Bay and will make landfall somewhere close to the China - North Korea border tomorrow.
Current T-number: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS
MEARI's convections have become loose in the past 24 hours. As sea temperatures continue to decrease and that shear becomes unfavourable, MEARI is expected to weaken and become extratropical after landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS
米雷的對流於過去 24 小時變得鬆散。預料低水溫和高垂直風切變將令米雷繼續減弱，於登陸後轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
米雷於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/06/27 (Mon 一) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
MEARI moved further west last night, but has since then resumed a northerly movement. At 20 HKT, MEARI was centred about 320 km (170 NM) SE of Shanghai.
MEARI is expected to travel north along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. It will start to recurve as it reaches the Korean Peninsula.
米雷將沿副熱帶高壓脊西部向北移動，並於到達朝鮮半島前後轉向。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24 HRS
MEARI failed to strengthen into a typhoon despite relatively favourable conditions. Waters are significantly cooler above 30 degrees north, where MEARI is about to reach. It is expected that this will cause MEARI to weaken. Extratropical transition should commence as MEARI makes landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24 HRS
雖然週邊環境良好，米雷仍未能增強成颱風。北緯 30 度以北的水溫明顯較低；隨著米雷橫過該處，它將受低水溫的影響而減弱。米雷將於登陸前後開始轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
米雷於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/06/26 (Sun 日) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
The subtropical ridge has retreated and become N-S oriented. MEARI, situated in its western periphery, will move north across the East China Sea towards the Korean Peninsula. It will then recurve into the westerlies.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS
MEARI's convections have improved over the past 24 hours. Slight intensification is possible in the next 12 to 24 hours as outflow and sea temperatures remains favourable. As MEARI moves north, seas will become much cooler and this will become the primary factor that contributes to its weakening trend. MEARI will transform into an extratropical cyclone in three days' time.
The original centre of MEARI was replaced by a vortex southeast of it, and thus the track is shifted considerably to the east. The forecast philosophy remains unchanged. MEARI is now in the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to be weakened by a mid-latitude trough and will retreat. It will also become meridional. This will alow MEARI to recurve along the western edge of the ridge.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS
Shear is not favourable in MEARI's vicinity. Due to the monsoon depression nature of the storm, MEARI is expected to intensify slowly until t+48, after which cooler seas will weaken the storm. Extratropical transition should start about three days later.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
米雷附近垂直風切變頗高。米雷屬於季風低壓，預料增強速度緩慢。48 小時後米雷所經區域海溫急劇下降，因而開始減弱。米雷將於約三天後開始溫帶氣旋轉化。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
米雷於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/06/24 (Fri 五) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Another disturbance east of the Philippines has gradually intensified into a tropical storm, and was named MEARI by the Japan Meteorological Agency. At 20 HKT, MEARI was centred about 630 km (340 NM) E of Manila.
MEARI is now in the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to be weakened by a mid-latitude trough and will retreat. This will alow MEARI to recurve along the western edge of the ridge.
米雷現處於副熱帶高壓脊西南部。預料該脊將被西風槽擊退，從而令米雷沿副高西部逐步轉向。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
MEARI is in a region with favourable outflow channels and warm seas. However the vertical wind shear is rather high which may inhibit development. Also, MEARI is a large system that is expected to take longer to consolidate. MEARI should strengthen at less than climatological rate until it crosses the ridge axis (or hits landmass).
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
米雷所在區域輻散良好，海溫頗高，但垂直風切變亦處於高水平。由於米雷屬於較為大型的熱帶氣旋，它需要較長時間整固。預料米雷將以低於氣候平均值速度增強，直至橫過脊線或登陸。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
米雷於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/06/23 (Thu 四) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
