MUIFA made landfall at western North Korea last night, and entered China not long afterwards. At 08 HKT, MUIFA was centred about 170 km (95 NM) S of Harbin.
MUIFA is the 119th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Macau, meaning plum blossom. This name was last used in 2004.
梅花為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 119 個名字，由澳門提供。這個名稱曾於 2004 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
MUIFA will move NNW along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, making landfall near the China-North Korea border. It will then recurve towards northeastern China.
梅花將沿副熱帶高壓脊西南部向西北偏北移動，於中國與北韓邊界一帶登陸，隨後轉向並深入中國東北部。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS
MUIFA is entering cooler seas, which will lead to gradual weakening. Rapid weakening follows as the storm makes landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS
梅花正進入海溫較低地區，預料會逐步減弱。當梅花登陸後，減弱速度將會加快。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
梅花於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/08/08 (Mon 一) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
MUIFA has turned NW and has decelerated. At 14 HKT, MUIFA was centred about 85 km (45 NM) SW of Okinawa.
梅花開始轉向西北並減速。在下午 2 時，梅花集結在沖繩島西南約 85 公里 (45
海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
MUIFA is the 119th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Macau, meaning plum blossom. This name was last used in 2004.
梅花為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 119 個名字，由澳門提供。這個名稱曾於 2004 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
MUIFA will move NW along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. It will turn north as it approaches eastern China, and is expected to recurve near Bohai.
梅花將沿副熱帶高壓脊西南部向西北移動，並於靠近華東時轉北，預計會於渤海一帶橫過脊線並轉向。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/18 HRS
MUIFA is expected to maintain current intensity before landfall. Rapid weakening occurs thereafter.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/18 HRS
預料梅花的強度將於登陸前維持，其後急速減弱。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Hong Kong is now under the influence of MUIFA's subsidence. Very hot weather with light winds and haze will continue tomorrow.
香港正受梅花的下沉氣流影響；周六將繼續天氣酷熱、有煙霞及吹微風。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/08/06 (Sat 六) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
MUIFA is the 119th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Macau, meaning plum blossom. This name was last used in 2004.
梅花為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 119 個名字，由澳門提供。這個名稱曾於 2004 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
MUIFA will move WNW turning to NW in the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, making landfall in Zhejiang province this weekend. MUIFA will then turn north as it reaches the western side of the ridge.
Current T-number: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS
MUIFA's eye appears rather loose. It is currently expected that there will not be significant changes to MUIFA's intensify prior to its landfall. Rapid weakening occurs thereafter.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS
梅花風眼較為鬆散。預料梅花的強度將於登陸前維持，其後急速減弱。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
As MUIFA moves west, Hong Kong will be under the influence of its subsidence. Very hot weather with light winds and haze is expected tomorrow and on Saturday.
隨著梅花西移，香港將受其下沉氣流影響，明天和周六天氣將為酷熱、有煙霞及吹微風。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/08/05 (Fri 五) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
MUIFA has turned west. At 20 HKT, MUIFA was centred about 410 km (220 NM) ESE of Okinawa.
梅花轉向西移。在下午 8 時，梅花集結在沖繩島東南偏東約 410 公里 (220
海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
MUIFA is the 119th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Macau, meaning plum blossom. This name was last used in 2004.
梅花為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 119 個名字，由澳門提供。這個名稱曾於 2004 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
The ridges north of MUIFA have joined together. MUIFA is expected to move W then NW along its south to southwestern periphery.
梅花北面的高壓脊已接合，預料梅花將沿該脊南轉西南部向西轉西北移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS
MUIFA has undergone another eyewall replacement cycle and the storm weakened slightly as a result. It is expected to strengthen as the cycle finishes. Rapid weakening follows as MUIFA makes landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS
梅花進行另一次眼牆置換周期，強度略為下降。預料周期過後梅花將稍為增強，登陸後急速減弱。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
As MUIFA moves west, Hong Kong will be under the influence of its subsidence. Very hot weather with light winds and haze is expected later this week.
隨著梅花西移，香港將受其下沉氣流影響，本周後期將變得酷熱、有煙霞及吹微風。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/08/04 (Thu 四) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
MUIFA is the 119th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Macau, meaning plum blossom. This name was last used in 2004.
梅花為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 119 個名字，由澳門提供。這個名稱曾於 2004 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
The western and eastern ridges north of MUIFA have begun to fuse together, and therefore it is expected that MUIFA will turn west soon. Near t+72 northward track component will increase again as the storm rounds the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
Current T-number: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24 HRS
MUIFA has developed a large eye of around 50 km in diameter. The storm is expected to intensify slightly as it crosses Okinawa, and will remain as a typhoon as it makes landfall in eastern China.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24 HRS
梅花的風眼變大，直徑約 50 公里。預料梅花將於橫過沖繩島前後增強，以颱風強度登陸中國東岸地區。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
As MUIFA moves west, Hong Kong will be under the influence of its subsidence. Very hot weather with light winds and haze is expected later this week.
隨著梅花西移，香港將受其下沉氣流影響，本周後期將變得酷熱、有煙霞及吹微風。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/08/03 (Wed 三) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
MUIFA has weakened slightly. At 20 HKT, MUIFA was centred about 900 km (490 NM) SE of Okinawa.
梅花稍為減弱。在下午 8 時，梅花集結在沖繩島東南約 900 公里 (490
海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
MUIFA is the 119th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Macau, meaning plum blossom. This name was last used in 2004.
梅花為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 119 個名字，由澳門提供。這個名稱曾於 2004 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
MUIFA is expected to move N/NNW in the western periphery of a ridge to its east. The Pacific subtropical ridge will extend westward later and allow MUIFA to turn to NW.
Current T-number: T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24 HRS
MUIFA's eye was rather unstable in the past 24 hours. There will not be significant changes to MUIFA's intensity in the next few days as the storm continues to move in a region with warm temperatures and good divergence.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24 HRS
梅花的風眼於過去 24 小時較為不穩定。預料梅花將於溫暖和輻散良好的環境中於未來數天大致維持強度。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
梅花於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/08/02 (Tue 二) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
MUIFA became the second category 5 super typhoon earlier today, but has since then weakened back into category 4. At 20 HKT, MUIFA was centred about 1110 km (600 NM) SSE of Okinawa.
MUIFA is the 119th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Macau, meaning plum blossom. This name was last used in 2004.
梅花為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 119 個名字，由澳門提供。這個名稱曾於 2004 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
The anticyclone ESE of MUIFA is guiding the storm towards the NE today. However both this anticyclone and the ridge NW of MUIFA are weak and thus the storm remains slow moving. MUIFA is expected to move N in the next 36 hours, after which the Pacific ridge will extend westward to push MUIFA towards the NW.
Current T-number: T6.0/6.5/S0.0/24 HRS
MUIFA's eye appears blurred on satellite images and even disappeared briefly earlier. Eyewall cloud top temperatures have also risen. Nevertheless, a low shear environment together with good outflow and warm sea temperatures will allow MUIFA to remain as a significant typhoon in the whole forecast period.
現時的 T 號碼: T6.0/6.5/S0.0/24 HRS
梅花的風眼顯得較為模糊，較早前更曾從雲圖上消失，而其眼牆雲頂溫度亦見上升。由於梅花身處海域風切較低，輻散良好且海溫偏高，預料梅花將於整個預測期內維持颱風強度。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
梅花於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/08/01 (Mon 一) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
MUIFA is
the 119th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was
contributed by Macau, meaning plum blossom. This name was last
used in 2004.
梅花為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 119 個名字，由澳門提供。這個名稱曾於 2004 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
An
anticyclone east of MUIFA is causing the storm to travel north slowly,
but the subtropical ridge north of the storm is still exerting some
influence as seen in today's brief movement towards the west. The
subtropical ridge is expected to weaken further, allowing MUIFA to
travel north in the next 72 hours. The ridge will re-establish towards
the end of the forecast period, and MUIFA will resume its westward
movement.
Current T-number: T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24 HRS
MUIFA strengthened quickly in the past 24 hours,
developing a central dense overcast with a clear eye embedded in it.
Eyewall cloud-top temperatures have plummeted to below -70 degrees.
MUIFA is expected to intensify further in low-shear environment,
reaching peak intensity as it crosses the 20th parallel north.
MUIFA is the 119th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Macau, meaning plum blossom. This name was last used in 2004.
梅花為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 119 個名字，由澳門提供。這個名稱曾於 2004 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
The subtropical ridge north of MUIFA continues to weaken, while an equatorial anticyclone is seen developing east of it. The combined effect is that MUIFA will track north in the next 72 hours with a possibility of eastward track component. The subtropical ridge is expected to re-establish later, which will allow MUIFA to resume a westward movement.
MUIFA is the 119th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Macau, meaning plum blossom. This name was last used in 2004.
梅花為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 119 個名字，由澳門提供。這個名稱曾於 2004 年使用。
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
The subtropical ridge north of MUIFA is expected to weaken. As a result of this, MUIFA will decelerate and turn north gradually. Some numerical forecast models project that the ridge will rebuild later, allowing MUIFA to regain westward track component.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS
MUIFA appears less sheared than yesterday. Ambient shear is also showing signs of weakening, which will allow MUIFA to intensify gradually in a pool of warm water.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS
梅花切離情況有所改善，而周邊風切亦有減弱趨勢，有利梅花於溫暖的海面上增強。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
梅花於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/07/29 (Fri 五) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
11W is expected to move NW to WNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. That ridge is expected to weaken later, which will allow a poleward turn.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS
11W's convections are sheared to the west. Moderate shear and poor divergence channels will greatly inhibit its development in the next 24 hours. Gradual strengthening is expected later as environment improves.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS
11W 的對流切離至其西面。在中等垂直風切變和較差輻散環境下預料未來 24 小時增強速度緩慢，隨後由於環境逐漸改善，11W 將得以發展。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
11W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/07/28 (Thu 四) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
11W is expected to move NW to WNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. That ridge is expected to weaken later, which will allow a poleward turn.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS
11W still appears loose on satellite imagery. Gradual strengthening is expected as it is in a region of warm sea surface temperatures. Initial rate of intensification is expected to be slower due to the relatively high vertical wind shear.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS
在雲圖上看 11W 仍顯得較鬆散。預料 11W 將於海水溫暖的洋面上逐漸增強，但受相對較高的垂直風切變影響初期增強速度較慢。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
11W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/07/27 (Wed 三) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
11W is expected to move NW in the forecast period along the southwestern periphery of the southward extension of the subtropical ridge.
預料 11W 將沿副熱帶高壓脊南部延伸在預測期內向西北移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
Shear is moderate in 11W's vicinity. It is expected that 11W will travel in seas with sufficient temperature and lower shear, and that the storm will intensify gradually.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
11W 附近垂直風切變中等。預料稍後 11W 將經過海溫充足和風切較低的海域，風暴將得以逐漸增強。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
11W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/07/26 (Tue 二) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
