After traversing seas east of Hokkaido, ROKE has now transformed into an extratropical cyclone. At 14 HKT, ROKE was centred about 650 km (350 NM) ENE of Sapporo.
ROKE is the 125th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, which is a Chamorro man's name. This name was last used in 2005.
ROKE made landfall at southern Japan this afternoon. At 20 HKT, ROKE was centred about 200 km (110 NM) NNE of Tokyo.
洛克下午登陸日本南部。在下午 8 時，洛克集結在東京東北偏北約 200 公里 (110
海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
ROKE is the 125th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, which is a Chamorro man's name. This name was last used in 2005.
ROKE will move NE along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
洛克將沿副熱帶高壓脊西北部向東北移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T4.0/4.5/W2.0/24 HRS
ROKE weakens as it makes landfall. It is now undergoing extratropical transition and is expected to be complete in 24 hours.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.5/W2.0/24 HRS
隨著洛克登陸，它開始逐步減弱。洛克正轉化為溫帶氣旋，預料一天內完成。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
洛克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/09/22 (Thu 四) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
ROKE intensified quickly into a category 4 typhoon, and it has also turned to the northeast. At 20 HKT, ROKE was centred about 330 km (180 NM) ESE of Kagoshima.
ROKE is the 125th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, which is a Chamorro man's name. This name was last used in 2005.
ROKE will move NE along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Track speed is expected to increase as ROKE enters the westerlies.
洛克將沿副熱帶高壓脊西北部向東北移動。隨著洛克進入西風帶，其移速將會迅速加快。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS
ROKE's eye cleared and the storm developed a round and symmetric central dense overcast, probably as a result of improved outflow and weak shear. Due to decreasing sea temperatures, ROKE is expected to weaken slightly before making landfall, and rapidly afterwards. Extratropical transition should occur in 2 days' time.
現時的 T 號碼: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS
受惠於低風切和良好幅散，洛克的風眼變得更為清晰，並發展出一渾圓對稱的中心密集雲區。預料洛克將於較低海溫環境下在登陸前稍為減弱，其後減弱速度加快，並於兩天後轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
洛克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/09/21 (Wed 三) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
ROKE has intensified into a typhoon. At 20 HKT, ROKE was centred about 310 km (170 NM) NE of Okinawa.
洛克增強為一颱風。在下午 8 時，洛克集結在沖繩島東北約 310 公里 (170
海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
ROKE is the 125th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, which is a Chamorro man's name. This name was last used in 2005.
A mid-latitude trough is eroding the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to become NE-SW oriented soon, and ROKE will travel NE in its northwestern periphery. Track speed will increase quickly as ROKE enters the westerlies.
Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS
ROKE has developed an eye in the past 6 hours. As ROKE travels NE, it will enter seas with lower temperature, and will thus start to weaken. Extratropical transition will occur in 3 days' time.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS
洛克於過去 6 小時發展出風眼。隨著洛克向東北移，它將進入較冷海域，並將逐步減弱。洛克將於三天內轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
洛克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/09/20 (Tue 二) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
ROKE has completed an anticlockwise loop. At 20 HKT, ROKE was centred about 270 km (150 NM) E of Okinawa.
洛克完成一次逆時針打轉。在下午 8 時，洛克集結在沖繩島以東約 270 公里 (150
海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
ROKE is the 125th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, which is a Chamorro man's name. This name was last used in 2005.
The subtropical ridge east of ROKE has shown signs of extending westward at low latitudes. ROKE is expected to move N along the western periphery of the ridge in the next 24 hours, after which it will accelerate towards the NE as the ridge becomes NE-SW oriented.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24 HRS
ROKE's convections are rather thin in its northwestern periphery. The storm should strengthen slightly as outflow improves near the arriving trough, but will weaken as it travels north as seas are significantly cooler there.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24 HRS
洛克西北面的對流較薄。預料槽前輻散增加將有利洛克於未來 24 小時稍為增強，但隨後洛克將經過明顯較冷的海水，因而開始減弱。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
洛克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/09/19 (Mon 一) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
ROKE has intensified into a severe tropical storm. At 20 HKT, ROKE was centred about 280 km (150 NM) SE of Okinawa.
洛克已增強為強烈熱帶風暴。在下午 8 時，洛克集結在沖繩島東南約 280 公里 (150
海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
ROKE is the 125th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, which is a Chamorro man's name. This name was last used in 2005.
ROKE is now losing latitude due to the ridge in China. It is expected that the subtropical ridge to the east of ROKE will resume influence on the storm soon, causing it to move N again. ROKE will turn NE later towards Japan as the ridge extends at lower latitudes.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
Divergence has improved slightly. ROKE is expected to intensify slightly in the next 48 hours, after which cooler seas will cause it to weaken.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS
洛克的輻散稍為改善。預料洛克將於未來 48 小時稍稍增強，隨後因海溫降低而開始減弱。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
洛克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/09/18 (Sun 日) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
ROKE is the 125th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, which is a Chamorro man's name. This name was last used in 2005.
The subtropical ridge has retreated, and ROKE is in a weak steering environment. A developing ridge in China is expected to cause ROKE to lose latitude, while the subtropical ridge will re-extend later at lower latitudes and allow ROKE to turn north or even northeast at later taus.
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
Divergence near ROKE is still quite poor. Coupled with marginal sea temperatures, the storm is expected to intensify very slowly.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
洛克附近輻散仍然不良，加上海溫較低，預料洛克只能緩慢地增強。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
洛克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/09/17 (Sat 六) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
ROKE is the 125th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, which is a Chamorro man's name. This name was last used in 2005.
ROKE is expected to move WNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge will be weakened by an arriving trough, leading to almost null steering environment. A building ridge in eastern China will allow ROKE to dip southward but at a slow pace. ROKE is forecast to linger around Okinawa in the extended forecast period.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS
ROKE's convections tightened slightly but are still sparse. Since divergence is severely inhibited, ROKE is expected to intensify very slowly.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS
洛克對流稍為收緊，但仍然稀疏。由於輻散嚴重不足，預料洛克只能緩慢地增強。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
洛克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/09/16 (Fri 五) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
ROKE is the 125th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, which is a Chamorro man's name. This name was last used in 2005.
ROKE developed a more stable centre today and has started to track northwestward. The northward track component is brought by the extension of the subtropical ridge at lower latitudes. Since ROKE is still in the ridge's southern periphery, a general WNW track is projected. The ridge is expected to weaken later this week, and as a result ROKE will decelerate significantly. A ridge is expected to be built in eastern China, leading to a possible turn to the SW. Such forecast is uncertain though, and ROKE may just stay stationary near Okinawa until a dominant steering force emerges.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS
Deep convections are confined to ROKE's periphery while its central region is almost devoid of thick clouds. Shear is weak but sea temperatures are not high either. ROKE is expected to move into warmer seas later this week. A general strengthening trend is expected, although the speed of intensification will be slow.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS
洛克深層對流只集中在其外圍，而中心只得稀薄雲層。洛克一帶風切微弱，但海溫仍然偏低 (約 27 度)。隨著洛克西移它將進入較暖海水區，預測會逐漸增強，但速度緩慢。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
洛克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/09/15 (Thu 四) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
ROKE is the 125th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, which is a Chamorro man's name. This name was last used in 2005.
The position of ROKE's centre remains unstable as multiple vortices seem to be developing, while the one being tracked in the past few days drifted east today. As the storm develops, it should follow the general synoptic pattern and move westward. The subtropical ridge is expected to weaken soon, leading to a turn to NW. However an increasing number of models are showing tendency for ROKE to stagnate in the extended forecast period (or even move SW), possibly due to a high pressure developing in eastern China.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS
Both shear and sea temperatures are rather low in ROKE's vicinity. It is expected to intensify slowly in the next 72 hours.
18W has decelerated. At 20 HKT, 18W was centred about 910 km (490 NM) SE of Okinawa.
18W 速度轉慢。在下午 8 時，18W 集結在沖繩島東南約 910 公里 (490
海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
N/A 不適用
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析
18W will move W to WNW in the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to weaken 2 to 3 days later, and more northward track component is expected later this week.
Current T-number: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24 HRS
Wind field analysis confirms 18W's low level circulation centre but it remained rather weak. Due to its monsoon depression nature, the storm is expected to strengthen slowly in generally good environment.
現時的 T 號碼: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24 HRS
風場圖確認 18W 的低層環流中心，但風速仍較弱。雖然 18W 附近環境大致良好，但由於該系統為一季風低壓，預料增強速度將頗為緩慢。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
18W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
23 HKT, 2011/09/13 (Tue 二) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
18W is in the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge and is expected to travel W to WNW steadily. Numerical model forecasts are indicating a weakening of the ridge near t+72, causing more poleward track component.
Current T-number: T1.5/1.5/INT OBS
There are little convections near 18W's centre. Being a monsoon depression this system is expected to intensify slowly in a generally favourable environment.
現時的 T 號碼: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24 HRS
18W 中心附近缺乏對流。雖然 18W 附近環境大致良好，但由於該系統為一季風低壓，預料增強速度將頗為緩慢。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
18W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
01 HKT, 2011/09/13 (Tue 二) or earlier 或更早
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
