24W is expected to move north along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge.
24W 將沿副熱帶高壓脊西部向北移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T1.0/1.5/W1.0/24 HRS
24W has lost its central deep convections and the circulation centre is exposed. Under very unfavourable conditions the storm should dissipate within the next 12 hours.
Tropical disturbance 98W just east of Vietnam coast has intensified into tropical depression 24W. At 20 HKT, 24W was centred about 780 km (420 NM) SW of Hong Kong.
24W is currently situated west of the subtropical ridge with the ridge axis slightly north of the storm. The cyclone is expected to move north and approach Hainan, and a recuvature should occur as the mid-latitude trough propagates and weakens the ridge.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
24W's spiraling features are apparent but the storm lacks symmetry. Shear is high above 19°N, and sea temperatures are not sufficient to fuel the storm. 24W is expected to weaken gradually, and the arriving intense monsoon will enhance its dissipation.
Coupled with an arriving monsoon, fresh to strong northeasterly winds may affect Hong Kong on the next few days. This and another disturbance near Dongsha may bring rain to the territory as well.
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
The arriving northeast monsoon is likely to be the dominant force of the strong winds expected, and the Observatory may issue the Strong Monsoon Signal.
南下的東北季候風很有機會成為本港稍後吹強風的主因，天文台到時或會發出強烈季候風信號。
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Low 低
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率，首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
