TALIM will move NE turning to ENE along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
泰利將沿副熱帶高壓脊西北面向東北轉東北偏東移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/30 HRS
TALIM looks rather disorganized on satellite images. The storm is expected to weaken due to higher shear and lower sea temperatures, and extratropical transition will take place at around t+36.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/30 HRS
於衛星圖上泰利組織頗為鬆散。預料泰利將於較高風切和較低海溫的環境下減弱，並於約 36 小時後轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
泰利於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update
下次更新
2011/06/21 (Thu 四), night 晚間 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
TALIM has intensified into a severe tropical storm and is now moving NE. At 14 HKT, TALIM was centred about 290 km (150 NM) SSE of Hong Kong. The Standby Signal No. 1 was issued at 10:20 HKT, replacing the Strong Wind Signal.
The subtropical ridge is extending westward. TALIM is expected to accelerate towards the NE to ENE along its northwestern periphery.
副熱帶高壓脊正西伸，預料泰利將沿其西北面向東北至東北偏東移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/18 HRS
Shear near TALIM has increased. As TALIM moves to higher latitudes it will encounter cooler seas and thus its development is limited. TALIM is expected to transform into an extratropical cyclone near t+72.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/18 HRS
泰利附近的風切上升。隨著泰利北上，海面溫度將下降，其發展空間有限。預料泰利於 72 小時後轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Wind direction will back from NE to NW and then SW in the next 36 hours.
風向將於未來 36 小時由東北逆時針轉向西北，繼而轉為西南風。
Next Update
下次更新
2011/06/20 (Wed 三), afternoon or night 下午或晚間 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台 (已) 發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消)
Low 低
High 高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Very High 極高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率，首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
92W was assigned the number 06W by the JTWC and named TALIM by the JMA today. The system has also intensified into a tropical storm. At 20 HKT, TALIM was centred about 370 km (200 NM) SSW of Hong Kong.
UPDATE AT JUNE 18 22:50 HKT: The Strong Wind Signal No. 3 was issued at 22:40 HKT.
TALIM will drift ENE in the next 12 hours under the steering influence of an equatorial anticyclone that produces a low-level southwesterly airstream. As GUCHOL rapidly moves away, the Pacific subtropical ridge will extend to the west which places TALIM at its northwestern periphery. This will cause TALIM to move NE, after which the latter stages of a typical recurving scenario will prevail.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS
Although its low-level circulation is intact, TALIM's northern semicircle lacks convections. TALIM is expected to intensify in warm seas until it reaches the Taiwan Strait where sea temperatures are lower. Extratropical transition is expected at around t+96.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS
雖然泰利的低層環流完整，但其北部缺乏對流。預料泰利將於溫暖的海面上增強，直至到達較冷的台灣海峽為止。泰利將於約 96 小時後轉化為溫帶氣旋。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
As TALIM draws near, winds are expected to strengthen and the wind direction will back from east to north to west over the next two to three days. Expect occasional squally showers.
Tropical disturbance 92W near Hainan Island has intensified into a tropical depression. At 20 HKT, 92W was centred about 450 km (240 NM) SW of Hong Kong. The Standby Signal No. 1 was issued at 16:20 HKT.
92W is currently quasi-stationary due to almost zero net force; ridge influence is present to its west, south and east. 92W is expected to drift ENE slowly partly due to the eastward motion contributed by an equatorial anticyclone and partly due to interactions with GUCHOL currently east of the Luzon Strait. As GUCHOL moves away, the subtropical ridge will be able to extend westward to position 92W at its northwestern periphery, and this will drive the storm NE at a quicker pace.
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
92W's structure has improved over the past 24 hours with solid convections to its south and west, but northern and eastern sides are yet to improve. The storm is in a position of warm sea temperatures (28 degrees) and low to moderate shear, which should allow intensification until the storm moves closer to the shore.
As the distance between 92W and Hong Kong decreases, we will experience increasingly windy weather with winds backing from east to north to west over the next two to three days. Expect occasional squally showers.
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
