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TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Selected TC Review / 重要熱帶氣旋回顧 > 201214W (KAI-TAK 啟德) [Refresh 更新]

201214W (KAI-TAK 啟德) - Profile 檔案

(First draft issued on September 5, 2012; final version issued on January 1, 2013)
(初稿於 2012 年 9 月 5 日發出，最後版本於 2013 年 1 月 1 日上載)

Brief profile of KAI-TAK 啟德小檔案:

TC signals for Hong Kong & Track 香港曾經生效的熱帶氣旋警告和路徑圖:

Table 表:

Signal 信號	Date and time 日期和時間	Distance from HK 與香港的距離	Predicted movement 預測移動方向和速度	Max. 10-min winds 中心最高十分鐘平均風速
	2012/08/15 (WED) 20:10 HKT	ESE 710 km	NW / WNW at 18 km/h	90 km/h (50 knots, STS)
	2012/08/16 (THU) 13:40 HKT	SSE 370 km	WNW at 22 km/h	120 km/h (65 knots, CAT. 1 / TY)
	2012/08/16 (THU) 22:15 HKT	S 270 km	WNW at 25 km/h	130 km/h (70 knots, CAT. 1 / TY)
	2012/08/17 (FRI) 06:20 HKT	SW 310 km	WNW at 25 km/h	120 km/h (65 knots, CAT. 1 / TY)
	2012/08/17 (FRI) 15:20 HKT	WSW 470 km	WNW at 25 km/h	120 km/h (65 knots, CAT. 1 / TY)
	2012/08/17 (FRI) 16:25 HKT	WSW 510 km	WNW at 28 km/h	120 km/h (65 knots, CAT. 1 / TY)

Figure 圖:

Percentile Ranks 百分等級:

IR imagery animation 紅外線雲圖動畫:

TC track from HKWW 本站的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC track from HKO 天文台的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

Past HKWW Bulletins on KAI-TAK 本站有關啟德的發佈

Please click here for bulletins on KAI-TAK. 請按這裡。

Storm Formation and Development 氣旋形成和發展

Unless otherwise stated, all times below are in Hong Kong Standard Time (UTC+8)
除非特別註明，下文時間均為香港標準時間 (協調世界時加 8 小時)

KAI-TAK developed as a tropical disturbance east of the Philippines on August 11. A tropical cyclone formation alert was issued by the JTWC in the afternoon of August 12, and a general WNW direction is expected due to the extension of the subtropical ridge north of the system. The HKO was quite confident in the formation of KAI-TAK, stating that a tropical cyclone was expected to form and move towards the Luzon Strait on August 11.

Due to the improved structure of the system, JTWC upgraded it into tropical depression 14W at 8 pm on August 12. The JMA issued the gale warning at the same time, while the HKO's upgrade came later at 10 pm. Initial forecasts were made in the scenario of a weakening ridge that would allow 14W to move in a NW direction later on, but the ridge later proved to be stronger than expected. Modest intensification was predicted as vertical wind shear remained a limiting factor.

As with other storms that passed through such region this year, 14W's convections were sheared to the west. The cyclone intensified into a tropical storm in the morning of August 13, and the name assigned was KAI-TAK. KAI-TAK was contributed by Hong Kong, which is the name of the old airport closed in 1998. KAI-TAK moved westwards quickly during the day, and as a result forecast tracks were shifted to the west with most agencies predicting the storm to cross the Luzon Strait south of Taiwan.

Though not very clear from satellite images, KAI-TAK's low-level circulation centre returned to the convective mass on August 14. The consolidation caused KAI-TAK to jump northwards briefly before returning to its usual westward track. Upper-level weather chart showed that the ridge has extended at low latitudes, while a few troughs appeared to be propagating. As a result track forecasts continued to depict a northwestward turn that would see landfall east of Hong Kong.

According to several agencies, KAI-TAK dipped slightly southwards in the night of August 14 and early August 15, but a NW track later that morning brought KAI-TAK to the northern end of Luzon. It briefly touched land before entering Luzon Strait that afternoon. The storm avoided high mountains and it even intensified into a severe tropical storm later that night.

啟德於 8 月 11 日在菲律賓以東發展為熱帶擾動，而聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC) 於 12 日下午對其發出熱帶氣旋形成警報。由於副熱帶高壓脊延伸至該擾動北面，初期預料此系統將大致向西北偏西移動。香港天文台對此擾動的發展頗有信心，早於 11 日已預料一熱帶氣旋將形成並趨向呂宋海峽一帶。

隨著系統結構轉佳，JTWC 於 12 日晚 8 時將其升格為熱帶低氣壓 14W。日本於此時對其發出烈風警報，而天文台則於晚上 10 時升格 14W 為熱帶低氣壓。首佈預測大致估計副高將減弱並令 14W 轉向西北移動，但結果副高再一次比預測為強。由於垂直風切變不算太低，強度預測比較保守。

與較早前於該區經過的熱帶氣旋同樣，14W 的對流明顯向西切離。14W 於 13 日早上增強為熱帶風暴，被命名為啟德。此名稱由香港提供，為本港舊機場的名字，該機場於 1998 年關閉。啟德日間快速向西移動，因此預測路徑不斷西調，主流預測風暴將於台灣以南的呂宋海峽通過。

啟德的低層環流中心於 14 日嵌入於對流雲帶之下，但從衛星圖上未能清楚看到。風暴整固令啟德向北跳動，隨後回復一貫的偏西路徑。高空天氣圖顯示副高於低緯度稍為西伸，而北面有西風槽東移。在此情況下，預測路徑大多繼續估計啟德將轉向西北移動，於香港以東登陸。

根據數個站台的資料，啟德於 14 日晚至 15 日凌晨曾經南移，但早上向西北移動，令其登陸呂宋北端。啟德登陸時間不長，於下午進入呂宋海峽，因次啟德得以避過呂宋高山，更於 15 日晚間增強為強烈熱帶風暴。

Figure 1 - Initial forecast track by the HKO
圖 1 - 香港天文台的首佈預測路徑圖

Figure 2 - Forecast tracks by various official agencies on August 13
圖 2 - 官方氣象台 8 月 13 日之預測路徑

Figure 3 - KAI-TAK approaching Luzon
圖 3 - 啟德正靠近呂宋

Crossing South China Sea and Local Conditions 橫過南海及本地情況

Shear eased off gradually as KAI-TAK entered South China Sea, while the ridge showed no signs of weakening in spite of the passing troughs. KAI-TAK accelerated slightly and went westwards, offsetting the northwestward motion prior to landfall. The #1 Standby Signal was issued at 8:10 pm on August 15 when KAI-TAK was 710 km ESE of the territory. Official predictions continued to forecast significant northward track component and were putting KAI-TAK very close to Hong Kong, passing within 100 km to the southwest. This scenario never materialized as the ridge stayed strong and KAI-TAK moved more westwards than forecast.

Some intense thunderstorm-bearing clouds swept across Hong Kong near midnight on August 16. Lightning was detected all over Hong Kong, and most places were briefly affected by heavy squally showers. KAI-TAK continued to consolidate and intensified into a typhoon in the morning, but its westward motion was so persistent that predicted landfall location was shifted to Zhanjiang. Most stations recorded the first surge in wind speed at around 9 am, coming in from the northeast. At 11 am, several cargo terminal operators announced that handling of empty cargos would be temporarily suspended from 2 pm. As winds continued to strengthen, the Observatory mentioned near noon that the #3 Strong Wind Signal would be issued by 2 pm, and that was eventually issued at 1:40 pm. Because KAI-TAK maintained certain distance from Hong Kong, it was then announced that higher signals were not likely at daytime.

Certain services were affected following the issuance of the Strong Wind Signal. Several ferry routes serving outlying islands were suspended and, in addition to empty cargos, that of laden cargos were also temporarily suspended starting from late afternoon. Winds at offshore locations reached strong force levels near 4 to 5 pm, and were still strengthening. The HKO mentioned that the possibility of issuing higher signals before 10 pm was not high, but was not ruling out the chances of higher signals explicitly.

Wind direction started to change from northeast to east at around 5 to 6 pm. Gale force winds set in at offshore locations like Waglan Island, while some urban stations not obscured to the east like Star Ferry picked up strong winds. At 8 pm, the Observatory noted that KAI-TAK was showing signs of intensification. As KAI-TAK would edge closer to the territory overnight, the #8 Signal would be considered after 10 pm as winds were expected to strengthen further. The Pre-No. 8 Special Announcement was issued at 8:05 pm, stating that higher signals would be issued by 10:15 pm the latest. Since the Observatory earlier mentioned that the #8 Signal was not likely before 10 pm, it was generally believed that the signal would most likely be issued between 10:00 to 10:15 pm.

More ferry services were suspended following the announcement of higher signals. The Observatory issued the #8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal at 10:15 pm. Although the HKO had been logically consistent, some people thought that it was confusing that the Observatory mentioned a low possibility of higher signals before 10 pm but the signal was issued 15 minutes after that time. KAI-TAK was 270 km south of Hong Kong when the #8 Signal was issued, and the Observatory predicted that it would be closest to the territory in a few hours' time, passing at a distance of 250 km to the SSW. For many stations, winds did not strengthen significantly in the following hours, and some stations even recorded an abrupt decrease in wind speed.

KAI-TAK was closest to Hong Kong at around midnight of August 17 when it was 250 km SSW of the territory. Strongest winds were generally observed at around 1 to 2 am from the east to southeast. Cheung Chau was the only reference station (out of 8) that managed to record gale force winds, and winds there dropped back to strong force levels after 3:30 am. As gale winds were only confined to a small area, the #8 Signal was replaced by the #3 Strong Wind Signal at 6:20 am when KAI-TAK was 310 km southwest of Hong Kong. During KAI-TAK's passage, damage caused was minimal, while around 20 flights were delayed as a result.

啟德進入南海後風切逐漸紓緩。雖然西風槽繼續發展並東移，但副高未有跡象減弱。啟德稍為加速並回復偏西路徑，抵銷先前西北移的趨勢。天文台於 8 月 15 日晚 8 時 10 分發出一號戒備信號，當時啟德位處香港東南偏東約 710 公里。官方預測繼續估計會有較大向北分量，最終於香港西南方約 100 公里之近距離內掠過；可是副高繼續展現強勢，啟德路徑一直比預測為西。

香港於 16 日凌晨時分受大雷雨影響，各區錄得閃電，而大多數地點受狂風大驟雨短暫影響。啟德繼續整合，並於早上增強為颱風。由於整晚路徑較為偏西，預測登陸點已西調至湛江一帶。大多數地區風勢於早上 9 時首度增強，風向為東北。數個貨櫃碼頭公司於 11 時宣布將於下午 2 時暫停吉櫃交收。由於風勢進一步增強，天文台於接近正午宣布將於下午 2 時前改發三號強風信號，而該信號最終於下午 1 時 40 分發出。啟德離香港尚有一段距離，天文台遂表示日間改發更高信號機會不大。

隨著三號信號的發出，部分服務受到影響。數條來往離島的渡輪航線暫停服務，而重櫃交收亦於下午較後時間開始暫停。離岸風勢於下午 4 至 5 時達到強風程度，並繼續增強。天文台指出晚上 10 時前改發更高信號機會不大，但並未明確排除此可能性。

風向於下午 5 至 6 時左右由東北轉為偏東。離岸地區如橫瀾島開始吹烈風，部分東面屏蔽較少的測風站如天星碼頭則吹強風。天文台於下午 8 時表示啟德有增強跡象，由於啟德將於晚間繼續靠近香港，預料風勢將增強，因此會於晚上 10 時後考慮改發更高信號。預警八號熱帶氣旋警告信號之特別報告隨即於 8 時 05 分發出，預料八號信號最遲於晚上 10 時 15 分生效。由於天文台較早前曾表示八號信號於晚上 10 時前發出的可能性不大，因此一般相信改發時間很可能於 10 時至 10 時 15 分之間。

更多渡輪於預警發出後停航，而天文台最終於晚上 10 時 15 分發出八號東南烈風或暴風信號。雖然天文台邏輯無誤，但部分市民覺得先前預計 10 時前發八號信號機會不大，卻於 15 分鐘後發出之安排較為混亂。於八號信號發出時，啟德集結於本港以南約 270 公里，而天文台預測它將於未來數小時最接近香港，並於西南偏南約 250 公里掠過。信號發出後數小時，大多數地方風速並未明顯上升，部分風力更驟降。

啟德於 17 日午夜左右最接近香港，於本港西南偏南約 250 公里處掠過。最強風速於凌晨 1 至 2 時錄得，風向為偏東至東南。長洲是八個參考測風站中唯一吹烈風的地方，但風力亦於上午 3 時 30 分過後降至強風程度。由於烈風只局限於少數地方，天文台於早上 6 時 20 分改發三號強風信號，啟德當時集結於本港西南約 310 公里。啟德吹襲期間所造成的破壞較為輕微，而約 20 班航班因此延誤。

Figure 4 - 500 hPa upper level weather map at 8 am on August 15
圖 4 - 8 月 15 日早上 8 時之 500 百帕高空天氣圖

Figure 5 - Wind shear chart at 2 pm, August 15
圖 5 - 8 月 15 日下午 2 時之垂直風切變分布圖

Figures 6a and 6b - Forecast tracks by various official agencies on August 15 and 16. Note the westward shift as KAI-TAK failed to gain much latitude
圖 6a 及 6b - 官方氣象台 8 月 15 及 16 日之預測路徑。由於啟德移向偏西，預測路徑不斷西調

Figure 7 - Squally thunderstorms affecting Hong Kong on August 16
圖 7 - 香港於 8 月 16 日受狂風雷暴影響

Figures 8a to 8c - Wind speed time series at Cheung Chau, Kowloon Star Ferry Pier and Sai Kung
圖 8a 至 8c - 長洲、九龍天星碼頭及西貢之風速時間序列圖

Figure 9 - Sea level pressure time series at the Hong Kong Observatory
圖 9 - 香港天文台之海平面氣壓時間序列圖

Figures 10a to 10f - Wind directions and speeds across Hong Kong at 4 pm, 7 pm and 10 pm of August 16, and 1 am, 4 am and 7 am of August 17
圖 10a 至 10f - 8 月 16 日下午 4 、7 和 10 時，以及 17 日上午 1、4 和 7 時之風向和風速分布圖

Figure 11 - Satellite image of KAI-TAK as it makes its closest point of approach to Hong Kong
圖 11 - 啟德最接近香港時的衛星圖像

Figure 12 - Radar image showing the northeastern quadrant of KAI-TAK
圖 12 - 雷達圖像顯示啟德之東北象限

Figure 13 - Track of KAI-TAK near Hong Kong
圖 13 - 啟德接近香港的路徑

Landfall and Dissipation 登陸及消散

KAI-TAK's structure improved prior to landfall, and its eye was briefly discernible on infrared satellite images in the morning of August 17. The storm made landfall at Mazhang, Zhanjiang near 12:30 pm as a typhoon. In Hong Kong, winds did not die down soon after sunrise, and thus the Strong Wind Signal remained in force until 3:20 pm, when it was replaced by the #1 Standby Signal. That signal was lifted just 65 minutes afterwards as most places saw a steep drop in wind speed back to normal levels. As a result this #1 Signal becomes the shortest ever in post-war records.

KAI-TAK crossed Leizhou peninsula and entered the Gulf of Tonkin in the afternoon, travelling WNW steadily. The HKO downgraded it into a severe tropical storm at 10 pm, around the time it made its final landfall at northern Vietnam. It continued to dig deeper inland and gradually weakened into a low pressure area the next day.

啟德的結構於登陸前轉好，風眼曾短暫於 8 月 17 日早上紅外線衛星雲圖上可見。啟德於下午 12 時 30 分左右以颱風強度在湛江麻章登陸。本港方面，日出後風勢未有明顯減弱，三號信號因此生效至下午 3 時 20 分才被一號戒備信號取代。風力於那時開始明顯降至正常水平，一號信號只維持了 65 分鐘，令這成為戰後最短的一號信號。

啟德橫過雷州半島，於下午進入北部灣並穩定向西北偏西移動。天文台於晚上 10 時將啟德降格為強烈熱帶風暴，而啟德亦於那時在越南北部作最後一次登陸。啟德繼續向內陸推進，於翌日逐步減弱為低壓區。

Figures 14a and 14b - Radar and satellite images shortly before KAI-TAK made landfall at Zhanjiang
圖 14a 及 14b - 啟德即將登陸湛江時的雷達及衛星圖

Winds Recorded at Reference Stations 參考站所錄得的風速

Charts and Figures 各項數據

Table 1: Track data from HKWW:
表一 : 香港天氣觀測站之路徑資料

Table 2: Maximum gust and hourly average wind speed recorded in Hong Kong from HKO:
表二 : 香港天文台公佈的各站最高每小時平均風力和陣風數據

Table 3: Rainfall (in millimetres) contributed by KAI-TAK from HKO (figures in brackets are based on incomplete hourly data):
表三 : 香港天文台公佈的各站雨量資料 (方括號內之數據由不完整之每小時資料擷取)

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Sat May 16 2026 18:39:05 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Mon Jul 24 2023