UTOR made landfall at Yangjiang yesterday and moved NW turning to N after landfall. At 2 pm, UTOR was centred about 370 km (200 NM) WNW of Hong Kong. The #1 Standby Signal was issued at 1:40 am and was lifted at 4:40 pm.
UTOR is the 27th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, and is the Marshallese word for squall line. This name was used in 2001 and 2006, with the former occurrence necessitating the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
UTOR appears stuck in an area of weak shear environment as the subtropical ridge moved north. Currently slow movement towards the north is expected in the next 24 hours.
因副熱帶高壓脊北抬,尤特看似停滯於一弱流場環境,最新一佈預測尤特會於未來 24 小時緩慢向北移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: N/A
Supply of moisture from the south lowers UTOR's weakening rate. However as the storm digs further inland, it will still lose intensity and is expected to weaken into an area of low pressure in the next 24 hours.
現時的 T 號碼: 不適用
由於南面有水氣提供,尤特減弱速度沒有預期般快。但隨著風暴繼續深入內陸,它仍然會減弱並預計於 24 小時內減弱為低壓區。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
As UTOR loses intensity, winds in Hong Kong should diminish gradually in the next 24 hours. However, UTOR and its remnants will still bring showers to the territory in the next few days.
UTOR is approaching western Guangdong and has been moving NNW in the past 6 hours. At 2 pm, UTOR was centred about 230 km (130 NM) WSW of Hong Kong. The #8 SE Gale or Storm Signal was replaced by the #3 Strong Wind Signal at 1:40 pm.
UTOR is the 27th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, and is the Marshallese word for squall line. This name was used in 2001 and 2006, with the former occurrence necessitating the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
The subtropical ridge is about to extend westward and UTOR is expected to turn equatorward inland.
副熱帶高壓脊即將開始向西伸展,預料尤特會於內陸逐漸轉向偏西移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T4.0/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS
UTOR is weakening due to land interaction. The storm is expected to weaken rapidly upon landfall and dissipate in 48 hours' time.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS
受陸地影響尤特開始減弱,預料其減弱速度會於登陸後加快,並於 48 小時內消散。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Despite the lowering of the #8 Signal, UTOR is actually closest to Hong Kong now and winds did not weaken substantially today, and gales are still observed at southwestern Hong Kong. However, UTOR is about to make landfall near Yangjiang, and as the storm weakens winds will die down. Squally showers will continue to affect the territory tonight and tomorrow.
UTOR is the 27th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, and is the Marshallese word for squall line. This name was used in 2001 and 2006, with the former occurrence necessitating the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
UTOR has decelerated significantly. The storm will move NW along a weakness in the subtropical ridge towards western Guangdong. The ridge is expected to strengthen again later leading to an equatorward turn.
Current T-number: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24 HRS
UTOR's northern structure deteriorated slightly, but convections remain tight. The storm is expected to maintain current intensity until landfall, and weaken rapidly afterwards.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24 HRS
尤特北面結構稍為轉差,但對流仍然緊密。預料風暴會於登陸前維持強度,隨後急速減弱。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
UTOR is expected to be closest to Hong Kong today around noon at a distance between 250 and 300 km. Winds are expected to strengthen and turn southeast soon, reaching gale force. Squally showers will continue to affect Hong Kong throughout today. Landfall is expected today evening or early nighttime; winds will start to subside by that time.
UTOR is now crossing the South China Sea with signs of intensification. At 2 pm, UTOR was centred about 380 km (200 NM) S of Hong Kong. The #3 Strong Wind Signal was issued at 4:40 am, replacing the Standby Signal.
UTOR is the 27th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, and is the Marshallese word for squall line. This name was used in 2001 and 2006, with the former occurrence necessitating the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
A weakness is seen west of the subtropical ridge which has continued to retreat, and in response to this UTOR has slowed down significantly in the past few hours. A change towards a more poleward direction is imminent. UTOR is expected to move northwest in the next 36 hours towards western Guangdong. Thereafter the ridge is expected to strengthen again and storm motion should turn equatorward.
Current T-number: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS
UTOR has developed a banding eye, while convections are becoming more symmetrical and expanding outward. The storm is expected to intensify slightly prior to landfall, after which rapid weakening will take place.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS
尤特發展出雲捲風眼,對流變得更為對稱且向外擴展。預料風暴會於登陸前稍為增強,隨後急速減弱。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
UTOR's rainbands are now affecting Hong Kong and northeasterly winds are gradually reaching strong force, with occasional gales in offshore areas and on high ground. As UTOR draws closer winds will continue to strengthen tonight, gradually veering to southeast tomorrow. As the storm is expected to decelerate, inclement weather conditions will persist on Wednesday, and probably extending to early Thursday as well. Squally showers will also affect the territory, and will be heavy at times.
2013/08/13 (Tue 二), late night or 深宵或 2013/08/14 (Wed 三), morning 上午
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
UTOR's gale radius is estimated at 180 NM (333 km) in HKO's Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping. Given such distance there is an elevated likelihood of issuing the #8 Gale or Storm Signal.
Western Philippines and eastern South China Sea 菲律賓西部及南海東部
Forecast
Track 預測路徑圖
Forecast
Positions 預測位置資料
Tau
時間差
HK Time
香港時間
Lat.
緯度
Long.
經度
Movement
移動速度和方向
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角
t+0
08/12 (Mon) 14:00
17.3°N
119.3°E
WNW 西北偏西 (290°) 25 km/h
90 kt (167 km/h)
TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風
SE 東南 772 km
t+12
08/13 (Tue) 02:00
18.2°N
116.6°E
WNW 西北偏西 (293°) 22 km/h
90 kt (167 km/h)
TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風
SSE 東南偏南 521 km
t+24
08/13 (Tue) 14:00
19.1°N
114.3°E
WNW 西北偏西 (298°) 16 km/h
95 kt (176 km/h)
TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風
S 南 356 km
t+36
08/14 (Wed) 02:00
19.9°N
112.7°E
NW 西北 (315°) 15 km/h
100 kt (185 km/h)
TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風
SSW 西南偏南 307 km
t+48
08/14 (Wed) 14:00
21.0°N
111.5°E
NW 西北 (318°) 13 km/h
100 kt (185 km/h)
TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風
WSW 西南偏西 311 km
t+72
08/15 (Thu) 14:00
23.0°N
109.5°E
NW 西北 (316°) 11 km/h
50 kt (93 km/h)
STS 強烈熱帶風暴
W 西 485 km
t+96
08/16 (Fri) 14:00
24.7°N
107.7°E
N/A
25 kt (46 km/h)
TD 熱帶低氣壓
WNW 西北偏西 711 km
Overview
總覽
UTOR made impact at Luzon early today and entered the South China Sea this morning. It has weakened into a category 2 typhoon. At 2 pm, UTOR was centred about 770 km (420 NM) SE of Hong Kong. The #1 Standby Signal was issued at 4:05 pm.
UTOR is the 27th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, and is the Marshallese word for squall line. This name was used in 2001 and 2006, with the former occurrence necessitating the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
The subtropical ridge continued to weaken but maintains substantial strength in southeastern China. UTOR is expected to move WNW quickly across the South China Sea in the next 24 hours. However, a mid-latitude trough propagating eastwards will erode the ridge and allow a more poleward movement beyond t+24/36. A landfall at western Guangdong is predicted.
Current T-number: T4.0/5.0/W2.0/24 HRS
UTOR's lower-level structure was destroyed as it crossed the mountainous Luzon terrain. The storm appears to be re-organizing its structure and some intensification is expected due to warm seas and low vertical wind shear. UTOR may reach category 3 typhoon strength again at landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/5.0/W2.0/24 HRS
尤特經過呂宋高山令低層結構被破壞,而由雲圖看來它正逐漸重新組織其結構。在高海溫及低垂直風切變的環境下,預料尤特將能於南海增強,登陸時有望再度成為三級颱風。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
It will still be hot tonight. UTOR's rainbands will start to affect Hong Kong tomorrow, and winds will strengthen from the E/NE, veering to SE on Wednesday. According to the present track, strong force winds or above are expected. There will be squally showers, becoming more frequent on Wednesday.
UTOR is the 27th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, and is the Marshallese word for squall line. This name was used in 2001 and 2006, with the former occurrence necessitating the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
The western edge of the subtropical ridge has weakened slightly, while there seems to be some strengthening to the east of UTOR. The storm is expected to move WNW under the southern periphery of the ridge, reaching Luzon tomorrow. UTOR's track may turn equatorward again as it reaches the southern edge of the ridge, but model forecasts are calling for a retreat of the ridge at later taus that will induce a turn to the NW.
Current T-number: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS
UTOR has developed a symmetrical central dense overcast and a well-defined eye started to appear this morning, leading to a rapid upward adjustment to its intensity. Further intensification is expected before landfall, but UTOR is now forecast to land on the most hilly parts of Luzon which will cause substantial impact to its intensity. As UTOR enters South China Sea, high sea temperatures should allow some re-development.
現時的 T 號碼: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS
尤特發展出一對稱中心密集雲區,清晰風眼於今晨開始見到,令其強度大幅提升。預料尤特將於登陸前繼續增強,但由於預測尤特會經過呂宋較高的山脈,它可能於橫過菲律賓期間明顯減弱。風暴進入南海後將繼續受惠於高海溫而能重新發展。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Very hot weather is still expected tomorrow. As UTOR enters the South China Sea, northeasterly winds will strengthen on Tuesday, veering to southeast the next day. Squally showers will affect the territory in the middle of this week.
11W rapidly intensified into a typhoon over the past 24 hours, and was named UTOR by the JMA early today. At 2 pm, UTOR was centred about 890 km (480 NM) E of Manila.
UTOR is the 27th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, and is the Marshallese word for squall line. This name was used in 2001 and 2006, with the former occurrence necessitating the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
The subtropical ridge north of UTOR is firmly anchored near Kyushu. Under its influence the storm is expected to track WNW in general. However, a disturbance appears to be developing in the South China Sea, and may induce further uncertainty to UTOR's track.
Current T-number: T4.5/4.5/D2.5/24 HRS
Due to improving outflow and minimal shear, UTOR has intensified rapidly over the past 24 hours from a tropical depression to a typhoon. Such favourable environmental conditions are expected to continue in the next 24 to 36 hours, allowing UTOR to intensify further. Impact at Luzon will weaken the system, but it may re-intensify in the South China Sea. Again due to the presence of the tropical disturbance in the South China Sea intensity forecast is subject to high uncertainty.
According to the present track, UTOR's subsidence will inflict very hot and hazy weather on Monday as the storm crosses Luzon. Northeasterly winds will strengthen on Tuesday, veering to southeast the next day. Squally showers will affect the territory in the middle of next week.
A subtropical ridge is situated north of 11W. Under its steering influence, the storm is expected to move WNW in the next three days.
副熱帶高壓脊處於 11W 以北,預料將於未來三天帶領風暴向西北偏西移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
11W is a small system and is intensifying. Vertical wind shear is extremely low in Philippine Sea and sea temperatures are high. The storm is expected to develop gradually over the next few days.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS
11W 尺度小,正開始增強。由於菲律賓以東海域垂直風切變極低而海溫頗高,預料 11W 會於未來數天逐漸發展。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
As 11W nears Luzon three days later, hazy weather could affect Hong Kong on Monday.
隨著 11W 於三天後靠近呂宋一帶,香港或會於下周一受煙霞影響。
Next Update
下次更新
2013/08/10 (Sat 六), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。