USAGI weakened rapidly into a tropical depression. At 2 pm, USAGI was centred about 360 km (190 NM) NW of Hong Kong. The #8 SW Gale or Storm was replaced by the #3 Strong Wind Signal at 9:20 am, and the latter was cancelled at 10:25 am this morning.
USAGI is the 33rd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Japan, meaning the constellation Lepus. This name was used in 2001 and 2007.
USAGI passed at around 80 km NNE of Hong Kong Observatory earlier today and has now retreated and weakened into a severe tropical storm. At 8 am, USAGI was centred about 220 km (120 NM) NW of Hong Kong. The #8 SW Gale or Storm Signal is still in force.
USAGI is the 33rd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Japan, meaning the constellation Lepus. This name was used in 2001 and 2007.
USAGI is expected to move WNW turning to W gradually along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
天兔將沿副熱帶高壓脊南部向西北偏西轉西移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: N/A
USAGI is weakening rapidly as it loses energy inland. The storm is expected to degenerate into an area of low pressure by t+24.
現時的 T 號碼: 不適用
天兔登陸後喪失能量,減弱速度加快。預料天兔會於 24 小時內減弱為低壓區。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Winds have subsided appreciably with no station recording gale force winds at this moment, but rainbands are still affecting the territory. As USAGI moves further away, rain will also start to diminish later today.
USAGI has made landfall near Shanwei while travelling WNW. At 8 pm, USAGI was centred about 140 km (80 NM) ENE of Hong Kong. The #8 NW Gale or Storm Signal was issued at 6:40 pm. [Update at 23/9 12:30am: The #8 NW Signal was replaced by the #8 SW Signal at 12:25 am]
USAGI is the 33rd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Japan, meaning the constellation Lepus. This name was used in 2001 and 2007.
USAGI is expected to move WNW turning to W gradually along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
天兔將沿副熱帶高壓脊南部向西北偏西轉西移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: N/A
USAGI's eye was filled as it made landfall. The storm is expected to weaken steadily inland and degenerate into a low area pressure by t+48.
現時的 T 號碼: 不適用
天兔登陸後風眼被填塞。預料天兔會於陸上穩定減弱,於 48 小時後減弱為低壓區。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Northwesterly winds are reaching gale force at some locations, and will continue to strengthen tonight. USAGI is expected to be closest to Hong Kong near midnight, passing at a distance of around 100 km. Wind direction will back to SW early tomorrow. Weather will remain inclement at least until tomorrow morning. High tide (2.2m) is predicted at around 11 pm tonight; flooding is possible at low-lying areas.
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
As USAGI's latitude is already north of Hong Kong, the Hurricane Signal #10 is rather unlikely. However if winds strengthen rapidly to storm force as USAGI nears, the Increasing Gale or Storm Signal #9 is still possible.
USAGI moved WNW in the past 12 hours and has weakened into a category 3 typhoon. At 8 am, USAGI was centred about 400 km (220 NM) E of Hong Kong. The Strong Wind Signal #3 was issued at 11:40 pm last night.
USAGI is the 33rd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Japan, meaning the constellation Lepus. This name was used in 2001 and 2007.
USAGI is expected to move WNW turning to W gradually along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Track speed is forecast at around 18 km/h before landfall.
天兔將沿副熱帶高壓脊南部向西北偏西轉西移動。預料天兔登陸前移速維持大約每小時 18 公里。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24 HRS
USAGI maintained tight convective bands although the eye is partially cloud-filled. The storm is expected to weaken slightly prior to landfall, and rapidly afterwards.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24 HRS
天兔風眼部分被雲覆蓋,但環流仍然緊密。預料天兔會於登陸前稍為減弱,隨後減弱速度加快。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
USAGI's rainbands are about to affect Hong Kong. Winds will pick up gradually today, coming in from the northwest. The Observatory has already indicated that it will consider higher signals this afternoon or evening. The storm will be very close to Hong Kong between tonight and tomorrow morning, and gale to storm force winds are extremely likely. USAGI is more likely to make landfall east of Hong Kong; wind direction should back to southwest tomorrow, maintaining gale force early morning.
USAGI has weakened into a category 4 typhoon and is now crossing Luzon Strait. At 2 pm, USAGI was centred about 700 km (380 NM) ESE of Hong Kong. The Standby Signal #1 was issued at 10:40 am.
USAGI is the 33rd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Japan, meaning the constellation Lepus. This name was used in 2001 and 2007.
USAGI is expected to move WNW turning to W gradually as it nears the southern edge of the subtropical ridge. Track speed is forecast at around 18 km/h before landfall.
Current T-number: T5.5/6.0/W1.0/24 HRS
USAGI has weakened slightly due to land interaction. It is also evident from satellite and radar images that an eyewall replacement cycle has started and USAGI is now exhibiting a double eyewall structure. This will prevent the storm from strengthening in the next 12 hours. Nevertheless, a general weakening trend is expected as influence from southern China landmass increases. USAGI will lose strength at a faster pace after landfall.
現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/6.0/W1.0/24 HRS
受地形影響,天兔稍為減弱。從衛星及雷達圖上可見天兔正進行眼牆置換週期,天兔現時出現雙重眼壁結構,這會令風暴於未來 12 小時無法增強。整體來說,隨著天兔靠近華南沿岸,陸地影響將漸見明顯,預料天兔會繼續減弱。風暴減弱速度會於登陸後明顯加快。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Due to USAGI's subsidence Hong Kong is affected by haze and very hot weather. North to northwesterly winds will strengthen tonight and the weather will deteriorate rapidly starting from early tomorrow. According to the present forecast track USAGI will be extremely close to Hong Kong (with possible landfall) between Sunday night and Monday morning, with considerable strength. Cyclonic winds of up to hurricane force is possible. Precautionary measures should be taken now to guard against damage from wind and storm surge.
USAGI intensified into a category 5 super typhoon last night, but has weakened slightly this morning. At 2 pm, USAGI was centred about 550 km (300 NM) SE of Kaohsiung.
USAGI is the 33rd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Japan, meaning the constellation Lepus. This name was used in 2001 and 2007.
USAGI is moving NW along the SW periphery of the subtropical ridge. The storm is expected to turn WNW soon as it reaches higher latitudes, and later to W along the southern edge of the ridge towards southern Guangdong.
Current T-number: T6.5/7.0/D0.5/24 HRS; W0.5/06 HRS
USAGI reached category 5 intensity last night, but the storm appears to be weakening since this morning. The eye is still very clear but eyewall cloud top temperatures have risen. USAGI is expected to weaken further as it nears southern Taiwan and it may undergo eyewall replacement cycle. After landfall USAGI should lose strength more rapidly although it is expected to stay near coastal areas.
現時的 T 號碼: T6.5/7.0/D0.5/24 HRS; W0.5/06 HRS
天兔昨晚達到五級強度,但從今早開始風暴似乎正在減弱。天兔的風眼仍然十分清晰,但眼牆雲頂溫度有所提升。天兔將逐漸靠近台灣南部,亦有可能進行眼牆置換,預料會繼續減弱。雖然預測天兔會橫過沿岸地區,它減弱的速度仍會於登陸後明顯加快。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
Haze will continue to affect Hong Kong today and tomorrow. As USAGI edges closer local weather will deteriorate on Sunday with strengthening north to northwesterly winds and increasingly frequent squally showers. USAGI's effect on Hong Kong depends very much on how north the storm goes before turning to the west. In the current forecast USAGI will be very close to Hong Kong on Sunday night to early Monday; gales are very likely at that time.
USAGI dipped south before turning NNW, and has rapidly intensified into a category 4 typhoon. At 2 pm, USAGI was centred about 820 km (440 NM) ENE of Manila.
USAGI is the 33rd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Japan, meaning the constellation Lepus. This name was used in 2001 and 2007.
As USAGI strengthens, it is now subject to higher level steering. In that layer the subtropical ridge has clearly extended south to the east of USAGI. This contributed to the abrupt turn to the NNW. As USAGI moves to higher latitude, it is expected to turn WNW and later W as it approaches the southern periphery of the ridge. Track speed is expected to increase to around 20 km/h as the storm crosses Luzon Strait, but drops towards the end of the forecast period.
Current T-number: T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24 HRS
USAGI developed a central dense overcast over the past 12 hours and a clear eye has emerged. The atmospheric environment is still supportive of some intensification and USAGI is expected to intensify into a super typhoon in the next 12 hours. The storm should start to weaken later due to the South China terrain.
現時的 T 號碼: T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24 HRS
天兔於過去 12 小時發展出一中心密集雲區,並形成一清晰風眼。由於大氣環境仍然有利增強,預料天兔會於未來 12 小時增強為超級颱風。受華南地形影響,天兔於較後時間會開始減弱。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
As USAGI nears Luzon Strait, haze is expected in the next two days. After USAGI enters the South China Sea, local weather will deteriorate on Sunday with showers and strengthening north to northwesterly winds.
USAGI is the 33rd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Japan, meaning the constellation Lepus. This name was used in 2001 and 2007.
The subtropical ridge is positioned rather north and the influence on USAGI is currently quite weak. USAGI is expected to pick up speed soon, moving W along the southern periphery of the ridge. Between t+24 and t+48 the ridge is expected to extend south at east of USAGI, leading to a WNW to NW track. Some numerical models are suggesting a turn back to W at later taus as the influence from the southern extension of the ridge diminishes.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS
USAGI's convections are consolidating and becoming more symmetrical. As the storm is expected to track across a warm pool of water with decent divergence aloft, it should intensify gradually in the next 72 hours into a significant typhoon.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS
天兔的對流逐漸整固,結構變得對稱。由於風暴將橫過高海溫的地區且輻散良好,預料它將於未來 72 小時逐漸增強至一成熟颱風。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
USAGI's subsidence may produce haze three days later as it nears Luzon Strait.
隨著天兔於三天後靠近呂宋海峽,受其下沉氣流影響香港或會有煙霞。
Next Update
下次更新
2013/09/19 (Thu 四), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
High 高
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。
Tropical disturbance 99W intensified into tropical depression 17W earlier today and was named USAGI. It later intensified into a tropical storm. At 2 pm, USAGI was centred about 1160 km (630 NM) ENE of Manila.
USAGI is the 33rd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Japan, meaning the constellation Lepus. This name was used in 2001 and 2007.
The subtropical ridge has restrengthened following the departure of MAN-YI. Under its influence USAGI should track W in the next 24 hours. Thereafter the ridge is expected to extend south at east of USAGI, leading to a WNW to NW track.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
Convections are relatively sparse in USAGI's northern semicircle. As the storm is expected to track across a warm pool of water with decent divergence aloft, it should intensify gradually in the next 72 hours.
現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
天兔北半圓環流較少。由於風暴將橫過高海溫的地區且輻散良好,預料它將於未來 72 小時逐漸增強。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
USAGI's subsidence may produce haze three days later as it nears Luzon Strait.
隨著天兔於三天後靠近呂宋海峽,受其下沉氣流影響香港或會有煙霞。
Next Update
下次更新
2013/09/18 (Wed 三), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
Signal 信號
t+12
t+24
t+36
t+48
t+60
t+72
Standby 戒備 #1
Low 低
Strong Wind 強風 #3
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9
Hurricane 颶風 #10
Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。