GONI is the 81st name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan. This name was used in 2003 and 2009, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal and the latter the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
GONI is the 81st name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan. This name was used in 2003 and 2009, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal and the latter the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
GONI is expected to move NNE initially. As the subtropical ridge intensifies to the east of GONI, the storm is expected to turn N and then NNW as it makes landfall near Vladivostok.
GONI's eye collapsed upon landfall early today. As sea temperatures drop and vertical wind shear increases, the storm will weaken gradually in the Sea of Japan. Extratropical transition is expected by t+48.
GONI is the 81st name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan. This name was used in 2003 and 2009, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal and the latter the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
GONI will move NE turning to NNE along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge towards western Japan. The ridge is expected to start strengthening at high latitudes east of GONI tomorrow, causing the storm to deflect back to the N or even NNW as it travels across the Sea of Japan.
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS W0.5/06 HRS
GONI's eye cleared yesterday and the storm intensified substantially. It is expected to weaken slightly over the next 12 hours, and faster as it reaches Japan and the cooler Sea of Japan.
GONI has weakened into a category 1 typhoon. At 8 am, GONI was centred about 260 km (140 NM) SE of Taipei.
天鵝已減弱為一級颱風。在上午 8 時，天鵝集結在台北東南約 260 公里 (140 海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
GONI is the 81st name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan. This name was used in 2003 and 2009, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal and the latter the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
GONI will move NNE turning to NE along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge towards western Japan. The ridge is expected to strengthen later at high latitudes east of GONI, causing the storm to deflect back to the N or even NNW.
GONI's eye deteriorated last night, but it appears to be clearing now. In contrast to previous forecasts, GONI is expected to intensify as it passes through the East China Sea due to improved outflow and warmer sea temperatures. It will weaken as it reaches Japan and the cooler Sea of Japan.
GONI has started to move north in Luzon Strait. At 8 am, GONI was centred about 560 km (300 NM) S of Taipei.
天鵝開始於呂宋海峽北移。在上午 8 時，天鵝集結在台北以南約 560 公里 (300 海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
GONI is the 81st name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan. This name was used in 2003 and 2009, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal and the latter the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
The subtropical ridge has weakened substantially over the past 24 hours. GONI is expected to accelerate towards the NNE along the western periphery of the ridge, moving towards western Japan in 3 days' time.
副熱帶高壓脊於過去 24 小時大幅減弱，預料天鵝將沿該脊西部向東北偏北移動，於三天後靠近日本西部。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24 HRS
GONI has weakened slightly over the past 24 hours, but its eye has somewhat tightened recently. Its intensity should be stable over the next 24 to 36 hours, but will weaken after that due to lower ocean heat content and, subsequently, higher vertical wind shear. Extratropical transition should start near t+96 and is expected to be complete by t+120.
GONI is the 81st name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan. This name was used in 2003 and 2009, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal and the latter the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
GONI will turn N and then move NNE along the western periphery of the weakened subtropical ridge.
天鵝將北轉，隨後沿已減弱的副熱帶高壓脊西部向東北偏北移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS
GONI's eye becomes cloud-filled and the central dense overcast has shrunk in size. The storm is expected to weaken gradually as it travels north due to stronger vertical wind shear and land interaction, and later lower sea temperatures.
GONI has intensified into category 4. At 8 am, GONI was centred about 780 km (420 NM) SSE of Taipei.
天鵝已增強為四級颱風。在上午 8 時，天鵝集結在台北東南偏南約 780 公里 (420 海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
GONI is the 81st name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan. This name was used in 2003 and 2009, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal and the latter the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
The subtropical ridge is weakening. GONI is expected to decelerate further in the next 24 hours. It will then move N turning to NNE along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge.
副熱帶高壓脊開始減弱，預料天鵝將於未來 24 小時進一步減速，其後沿副高西部向北轉東北偏北移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T5.5/6.0/D0.5/24 HRS W0.5/06 HRS
GONI formed a clear, large eye last night, but its structure has deteriorated slightly over the past 12 hours. It is expected to maintain intensity or weaken slightly in the next 36 hours. As ocean heat content decreases, GONI should weaken as it moves north across East China Sea.
GONI is moving westward quickly. At 8 am, GONI was centred about 1090 km (590 NM) SE of Taipei.
天鵝正快速西移。在上午 8 時，天鵝集結在台北東南約 1090 公里 (590 海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
GONI is the 81st name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan. This name was used in 2003 and 2009, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal and the latter the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
GONI will move west along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge in the next 36 hours. The ridge will weaken substantially after that, causing GONI to recurve just off the coast of Taiwan.
天鵝將於未來 36 小時沿副熱帶高壓脊南部向西移動，隨後副高將大幅減弱，令天鵝於台灣對開海域轉向。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24 HRS
GONI has been struggling to form a clear eye. It is still expected to intensify in the next 48 hours in warm seas, especially since divergence improves as the subtropical ridge retreats, and weaken later due to inferior ocean heat content.
GONI briefly intensified into category 4 yesterday before weakening back into category 3. At 8 am, GONI was centred about 1680 km (900 NM) ESE of Taipei.
GONI is the 81st name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan. This name was used in 2003 and 2009, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal and the latter the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
GONI will move WNW turning to W along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge will weaken substantially starting t+72, causing GONI to decelerate and turn north.
GONI's pinhole eye collapsed yesterday and the storm appears to be wrapping a banding eye now. In a region with low vertical wind shear and decent divergence, GONI is expected to intensify in the next 48 to 72 hours. Environmental conditions may deteriorate slightly beyond that, but should still be good enough to fuel a strong typhoon.
GONI is the 81st name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan. This name was used in 2003 and 2009, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal and the latter the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
GONI will move WNW turning to W along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge will weaken substantially starting t+96, causing GONI to decelerate and turn north by t+120.
GONI has developed a pinhole eye and its intensity will continue to be adjusted upward. In a region with low vertical wind shear and decent divergence, GONI is expected to intensify in the next 48 hours. Environmental conditions may deteriorate slightly beyond that, but should still be good enough to fuel a strong typhoon.
GONI has intensified into a severe tropical storm. At 8 am, GONI was centred about 160 km (85 NM) N of Guam.
天鵝已增強為強烈熱帶風暴。在上午 8 時，天鵝集結在關島以北約 160 公里 (85 海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
GONI is the 81st name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan. This name was used in 2003 and 2009, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal and the latter the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
GONI will move WNW along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. More poleward track component is expected at the beginning due to a southward extension of the ridge to the east of the storm.
天鵝將沿副熱帶高壓脊南部向西北偏西移動。由於副高於天鵝以東南伸，初期天鵝的移向會較北。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS
GONI's convections are wrapping tightly around its centre, and radar images at Guam show gradual intensification of the system. A region with minimal shear and favourable outflow will enable GONI to intensify steadily in the next couple of days.
GONI is the 81st name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by South Korea, meaning swan. This name was used in 2003 and 2009, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal and the latter the #8 Gale or Storm Signal in Hong Kong.
Due to the presence of ATSANI to the east, the effect of the near-equatorial ridge on GONI is limited. GONI is expected to move WNW along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge to its north in the next 120 hours.
GONI is entering a region with weaker vertical wind shear, and together with warm seas the storm is expected to intensify gradually over the next 96 hours.
隨著天鵝進入垂直風切變較低的區域，加上沿途海水溫暖，預料風暴將於未來 96 小時逐漸增強。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
預料天鵝於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。
Next Update
下次更新
2015/08/16 (Sun 日), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
16W is surrounded by the subtropical ridge to its north and east, and there is another disturbance (98W) to the east of the storm. Due to the ridge extension to its east, 16W is forecast to travel NW in the next 36 hours. The ridge is expected to lift as 98W develops, and the northern ridge will become 16W's primary driving force after t+48. 16W is thus expected to turn WNW from that point.
Vertical wind shear is somewhat strong south of 16W, limiting its initial development. As the storm moves north, it will reach a region of warmer seas with lower shear, and should be able to intensify at a quicker pace.
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
