MELOR has quickly weakened into a severe tropical storm and is lingering near western Philippines. At 2 pm, MELOR was centred about 160 km (85 NM) W of Manila.

茉莉快速減弱為強烈熱帶風暴，並於菲律賓西部附近徘徊。在下午 2 時，茉莉集結在馬尼拉以西約 160 公里 (85 海里)。

MELOR is the 92nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning jasmine. This name was used in 2003 and 2009.

茉莉為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 92 個名字，由馬來西亞提供，為一種花卉。此名曾於 2003 及 2009 年使用。

MELOR is now within a pressure col along the weakness in the subtropical ridge. As MELOR loses strength, it will be steered by an oncoming, intense surge of northeast monsoon, and accelerate towards the southwest.

副熱帶高壓脊出現弱點，茉莉正處於鞍場中。隨著茉莉減弱，它將受一股強烈東北季候風所帶動而加速向西南移。

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T3.5/4.5/W2.0/24 HRS

Vertical wind shear in South China Sea is very high, and is evident from MELOR's deteriorating structure. The forthcoming intense monsoon surge will promote MELOR's weakening; the storm is likely to degenerate into an area of low pressure by t+48.

南海的垂直風切變非常高，可見茉莉的結構被嚴重破壞。加上即將到來的強烈季候風，茉莉或於 48 小時內減弱為一低壓區。

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

預料茉莉於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。

2015/12/17 (Thu 四), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

MELOR intensified while crossing the Philippines, but has weakened substantially over the past 6 hours as it tracks over Mindoro. At 2 pm, MELOR was centred about 150 km (80 NM) S of Manila.

茉莉橫過菲律賓時繼續增強，但隨著風暴橫過民都洛島，它於過去 6 小時明顯減弱。在下午 2 時，茉莉集結在馬尼拉以南約 150 公里 (80 海里)。

MELOR is the 92nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning jasmine. This name was used in 2003 and 2009.

茉莉為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 92 個名字，由馬來西亞提供，為一種花卉。此名曾於 2003 及 2009 年使用。

The subtropical ridge is weakening and MELOR will continue to decelerate in the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the storm will be guided towards the southwest by an intense surge of northeast monsoon, and is expected to accelerate again.

副熱帶高壓脊開始減弱，茉莉將於未來 24 小時繼續減速。在此之後，茉莉將受一股強烈東北季候風所帶動而向西南移，其移速亦會加快。

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: N/A 不適用

MELOR's eye is now filled as it moves over land. Due to the oncoming cold surge, a general weakening trend is expected. The storm is forecast to dissipate in southern South China Sea before t+96.

茉莉的風眼於陸上被填塞。受即將到達的寒潮影響，預料茉莉將逐漸減弱，並於 96 小時內在南海南部消散。

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

預料茉莉於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。

2015/12/16 (Wed 三), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

MELOR has intensified further into category 4 and is now moving west near northern Samar. At 2 pm, MELOR was centred about 450 km (240 NM) ESE of Manila.

茉莉進一步增強為四級颱風，現於薩馬島北面近海西移。在下午 2 時，茉莉集結在馬尼拉東南偏東約 450 公里 (240 海里)。

MELOR is the 92nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning jasmine. This name was used in 2003 and 2009.

茉莉為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 92 個名字，由馬來西亞提供，為一種花卉。此名曾於 2003 及 2009 年使用。

MELOR will move west across central Philippines and decelerate as the subtropical ridge weakens. The storm will lose strength gradually and is expected to be steered by the low-level northeasterly monsoon replenishment after t+48, leading to a southwesterly motion into southern South China Sea.

茉莉將繼續西移並橫過菲律賓中部，同時因副熱帶高壓脊減弱而減速。風暴橫過菲律賓時將逐漸減弱，預計於 48 小時後開始受低層東北季候風補充影響而向西南移，趨向南海南部。

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24 HRS

MELOR's eye becomes even clearer as it moves just off the Samar coast. It is expected to weaken gradually as it travels across landmass. The rate of weakening is expected to increase at later taus as cooler and drier air enters the system.

茉莉於薩馬島近岸掠過，風眼變得更加清晰。預料茉莉會於稍後橫過陸地時減弱，其後風暴受較乾冷空氣入侵，減弱速度將加快。

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

預料茉莉於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。

2015/12/15 (Tue 二), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

MELOR intensified into a typhoon as it moves towards the Philippines. At 2 pm, MELOR was centred about 910 km (490 NM) ESE of Manila.

茉莉已增強為颱風，並繼續靠近菲律賓。在下午 2 時，茉莉集結在馬尼拉東南偏東約 910 公里 (490 海里)。

MELOR is the 92nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning jasmine. This name was used in 2003 and 2009.

茉莉為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 92 個名字，由馬來西亞提供，為一種花卉。此名曾於 2003 及 2009 年使用。

As ridging builds north of MELOR, the storm is expected to move west and cross central Philippines in the next three days. The subtropical ridge will weaken near t+48, causing MELOR to decelerate. The storm will likely turn southwest after it enters the South China Sea as the storm weakens and will then be steered by the low-level northeasterly monsoon replenishment. There is however some uncertainty about MELOR's speed across the Philippines.

隨著副熱帶高壓脊於茉莉以北整固，茉莉將於未來三天西移並橫過菲律賓中部。預料副高會於約 48 小時後減弱，令茉莉移速減慢。其後，隨著茉莉減弱，它很可能會受低層東北季候風補充影響而開始向西南移。現時的預測對於茉莉橫過菲律賓的速度之不確定性較大。

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24 HRS

MELOR's has intensified faster than expected over the past 24 hours; a small eye is clearly visible on satellite images. It will continue to strengthen over the next 24 hours, but should weaken gradually as it travels across landmass. The rate of weakening is expected to increase at later taus as cooler and drier air enters the system.

茉莉於過去 24 小時增強，速度比預期快，從衛星雲圖上已看到一細小清晰的風眼。預料風暴會於未來 24 小時繼續增強，但將於橫過陸地時減弱。其後茉莉受較乾冷空氣入侵，減弱速度將加快。

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

預料茉莉於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。

2015/12/14 (Mon 一), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

MELOR has gradually intensified into a severe tropical storm. At 2 pm, MELOR was centred about 1430 km (770 NM) ESE of Manila.

茉莉已逐漸增強為一強烈熱帶風暴。在下午 2 時，茉莉集結在馬尼拉東南偏東約 1430 公里 (770 海里)。

MELOR is the 92nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning jasmine. This name was used in 2003 and 2009.

茉莉為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 92 個名字，由馬來西亞提供，為一種花卉。此名曾於 2003 及 2009 年使用。

MELOR is expected to move WNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge over the next 24 hours. The storm will gradually turn west after that, as the ridge becomes more dominant to the north of it. Towards the later taus, MELOR is forecast to decelerate as ridging weakens, with a turn to the southwest likely as the storm drops in strength and will then be steered by the low-level northeasterly monsoon replenishment.

茉莉處於副熱帶高壓脊西南部，預料會於 24 小時向西北偏西移動。隨後副高於風暴以北發展，茉莉將漸轉西移。副高將於預測後期減弱，令茉莉移速減慢。同時，隨著茉莉減弱，它或會受低層東北季候風補充影響而開始向西南移。

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

MELOR's structure has improved over the past 24 hours. With decent sea temperatures and low to moderate vertical wind shear, some intensification is expected before t+36 or t+48. The storm will weaken as it crosses the Philippines, and later due to the intrusion of drier airmass. It will likely weaken into a tropical storm before emerging into the South China Sea.

茉莉的結構於過去 24 小時有所改善，預料風暴能於未來 36 至 48 小時，在海溫理想及低至中等垂直風切變的環境下增強。茉莉將於橫過菲律賓時減弱，加上其後受較乾氣團入侵，預料風暴將於進入南海前減弱為熱帶風暴。

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

預料茉莉於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。

2015/12/13 (Sun 日), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Tropical disturbance 96W has intensified into a tropical depression. The JMA assessed it as a tropical storm, and hence named it MELOR. At 2 pm, MELOR was centred about 80 km (45 NM) SE of Yap.

熱帶擾動 96W 已增強為熱帶低氣壓。日本氣象廳評估系統達熱帶風暴級別，因此給予名稱茉莉。在下午 2 時，茉莉集結在雅蒲島東南約 80 公里 (45 海里)。

MELOR is the 92nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Malaysia, meaning jasmine. This name was used in 2003 and 2009.

茉莉為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 92 個名字，由馬來西亞提供，為一種花卉。此名曾於 2003 及 2009 年使用。

MELOR is situated in the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. It is currently moving northwest rather quickly, and is expected to maintain such motion in the next 24 hours. Following a reorientation of the ridge near t+48, MELOR should turn west and proceed at a slower pace.

茉莉處於副熱帶高壓脊西南部，正以較高速度向西北移動，預料此移動趨勢將於未來 24 小時維持。隨著副高的型態於 48 小時後有所改變，預料屆時茉莉將轉西移，移速減慢。

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/INT OBS

MELOR possesses symmetric circulation spirals, but convections are rather thin. Sea temperatures in the region are favourable, but vertical wind shear is not weak. Modest intensification is expected in the next 48 to 72 hours.

茉莉的螺旋雲帶頗為對稱，但對流較薄。該區海溫有利熱帶氣旋發展，但垂直風切變不低。預料風暴能於未來 48 至 72 小時稍作增強。

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

預料茉莉於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。

2015/12/12 (Sat 六), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)